time to post me week two card so far

clowncar said:
Wake Forest – I have Wake Forest a half point favorite (if such a thing existed) over Cuse on a neutral with the QB, so without him, I am looking at Wake as about four pts better than Cuse with Cuse having about a similar sized hfa. Plus 170 on the moneyline therefore looks quite playable. Wake was playing pretty even with Cuse last year before Cuse had an int for a td and Wolford was knocked out of the game. He makes their offense (as bad as it is) go. Wake looks improved on offense, especially along the offensive line. Cuse completely outmatched Rhode Island along both the defensive and offensive lines and so they ran for 300 and gave up 0.2 yards per carry. RI didn’t win a game last year until they beat Towson in the finale. So they lost Hunt but it didn’t matter to them last week because they just owned the line of scrimmage. That is going to be tougher this week against Wake Forest and a Frosh QB is going to have to make some plays for the Orange to win. I am not putting a ton of weight to that huge outburts of offense from the Deacs against that Elon defense but they definitely look improved, more confident and have a decent player leading the way who might want some revenge for being knocked out of the game last year. Looking at year two with Clawson with 13/14 returning starters, including 7 on offense and a returning QB who is clearly "his guy"... so there is some reason to think they are going to be a lot better this year on offense. Two defensive scores last year for Cuse and I think we may actually see the reverse this year with Wake getting a defensive score. Wake 27 Cuse 20
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Yes indeed. Wolford has obviously improved dramatically. I would have liked the points here even if Hunt was playing, maybe even more so.
 
Let's talk Iowa. Before we look at the game itself, I think it bears mentioning that Iowa was pretty good last year under the radar. They had two bad games in the regular season against the Terps and the Gophers but otherwise were fairly consistent. They had good spark from Rudock on the one hand but his interceptions were very untimely, including the on he threw to ISU in last year's affair. Iowa was up 14-3 five or six minutes into the second half when Rudock threw a pick that ISU returned to roughly the 30 yard line and it completely changed momentum in that game. ISU went on to kick a last second FG, Rudock is gone, Beatheard is in. He played well week 1 in what I believe was his first college start, not 100% sure on that but you get the idea. Speaking of which, the Hawkeyes played Illinois State last week which means this will be the second week in a row that they beat an ISU team. Illinois State lost by two for the FCS national title last year and they almost won that by rushing for 267 yards. Iowa held them to 35 rushing yards and 14 first downs. They gave up 14 points but that was all in the fourth against the second string after the game was decided. They have the old school mentality to winning football games ... run it and play good defense and it looks like the pieces are in place. I really like this team this season. Now, the Clones had what looks like an impressive 31-7 win against Northern Iowa in week 1 but to me it wasn't that impressive. They had a long punt return for one score, returned another kick 34 yards to the niu 23 yard line for a short field, a two play 43 yard drive after a 29 yard shanked punt out of bounds, and a 38 yard drive after an interception. They didn't really drive the field. I don't mind Richardson for the Clones. He is decent enough, heck he is one of the few players I have watched live when he was down in Austin and one of my two best friends had an extra ticket but they don't have a ton to hang their hat on for this game. The home field in this rivalry has not been a huge deal of late, the death of Tyler Sash might give Iowa an added motivational edge, this is not just a rivalry but a true revenge game as well, and Iowa is just playing better football, as they did last year against Iowa State, as they did for the season compared to Iowa State and as they did last week when compared to Iowa State. Iowa State was outgained by roughly 1900 yards last year ... they just are not very good. Iowa had one of the best run defenses in the country last year and it looks good to me again for this year and that means Richardson has to do it.... the wr actually aren't that bad ... but I think it is asking too much to expect them to win. Big Brother 30 Little Brother 18
 
Br@ssknux said:
Yes indeed. Wolford has obviously improved dramatically. I would have liked the points here even if Hunt was playing, maybe even more so.
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I think Cuse is going to try to run the ball. They didn't even open up with game in hand last week .. maybe to avoid injury that would lead to third string. But I think Wake can safely assume Cuse is going to run ... not sure Orange can load up the same way.
 
Br@ssknux said:
You will see an almost verbatim write up on this one from me when I get back on the grid. Spot on. There will be blood.

A little nervous on your Utah pick. Although I agree with your assertion that Keeton is an albatross for them now(and honestly should probably be replaced with some of their depth), Utes were very lucky to get as much as they did last week on offense, I think it's entirely possible that they don't get to 21 on this solid Utah State D, and I'm thinking the Aggies probably didn't show much on offense for at least the first half with the Utes on deck. I think they'll get a much better offensive performance despite my reservations on Keeton...they'll probably stumble into 10 points by accident. 13 is too many for me even though Utah has covered 8 in a row in the non conference. I'm laying off that one.
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Utah State defense is good. I am a fan of the Aggies, as some know. But I am higher on Michigan than you are. How many teams face Utah State the week after playing a better defense than Utah State? The run ends soon for Utah State though. Eventually you can't get these recruiting classes ranked north of 100 to overachieve and the Aggies lose their best defender at all three levels of the defense. That is gonna catch up to them against a team like Utah. I probably did this backward, laying off of Utah when I liked them when the Michigan side felt super square and now backing them when the Utes feel that way but I am a believer in both Utah and Michigan and I'm rolling with it.
 
Marsski said:
Watched most of Ohio's win over Idaho on Thursday night and I thought Idaho's defensive tackling was some of the worst I have seen at D1. (So bad, I am seriously considering laying 43.5 with USC this weekend.)
I do like Derrius Vick and was pissed at Solich for playing Sprague so much. I thought it ruined the Bobcat momentum in the second quarter which allowed Idaho to climb back into the game (well, sort of.) Ouliette looked like he picked up where he left off last year and the freshman Papi White as well as Daz Patterson both played very well. WR core looked good as well making some great catches. I guess what i am saying is that (barring injuries) I expect the Bobcats to have a potent offense this year.
Defensively, I thought they looked average--Idaho kept a number of drives alive with fourth down conversions but the pass defense was definitely leaky at times--especially some of the safety play. Linebacking will probably be the defensive strength of this team, I liked how they read their keys and got off blocks in the Kibbie Dome. Lang had 17 tackles and Pohling was flying around as well.

Marshall v Ohio is a pretty big rivalry and I can see why people are taking the Bobcats at home and the points. But as an OU homer I worry about the trenches and whether Marshall's passing attack can dominate this game given how Idaho often had guys open.

Just as a general note here, Ohio had so many injuries last season (and the season before) I think it's really hard to say exactly how good they are at full strength. I think there are some wildly differing opinions on that topic and that is why the line is getting pounded (plus home team dog).

I don't think I will be on this game either way unless I hit the over...
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Great post Marrski
 
Another loss from last week:

Colorado minus the points. I always get a little scared when a team heads over to the island. You know you will get the short end of the officiating stick just about every time you back the road team there. That was no different for this game, and is also not an excuse of any kind because it is very cappable (Is that a word?). There was a controversial play as time was expiring where it took the officials an inordinate amount of time (ref basically fumbled the ball) to spot the ball which prevented the Buffs from snapping it for a final play. In any event, there were some problems in this game for Colorado ... 1. The Hawaii defensive line was dominating the Colorado offensive line. The QB had little time to throw and he needs time to throw because he isn't a very good QB. He averaged 4 yards per pass attempt, against Hawaii. He did a decent job scrambling. He has a tendency to always want to throw the ball to Spruce even when he has been taken away. He was also very vocal on the field in regards to his pass protection. He was correct, but you have to wonder about team chemistry. 2. The Buffs had a brutal game from their punter. He averaged 36 yards on 7 punts but that doesn't do his horrible play justice. Not spending a ton of time on him but he set up the warriors on several occasions.

Colorado did a good job shutting down the Hawaii offense ... held them to about 300 yards and 79 of the Warriors 202 pass yards came on one play where they made a nice throw and catch on a long ball and then the colorado defender tried to strip the ball instead of tackle and the warrior broke free and scored. Warriors threw the ball an absolute ton for most of the game so to hold them to that number was a decent effort by the defense.

Bottom line was Buffalo played sloppy and their offensive line, QB and punter just didn't play well enough to win on the road. With that said, they outgained hawaii by about 70 yards and were on the short end of the collective breaks (did intercept Wittek a couple times for officially minus 1 in turnovers) with punting, field position, turnovers and officiating.

I would probably play it again at my number so hard to give it a horrible grade, but I also would have played this at closing market and would not play that if it were offered today. Buffalo looked bad that night despite being statistically better.

Grade C-
 
clowncar said:
Let's talk Iowa. Before we look at the game itself, I think it bears mentioning that Iowa was pretty good last year under the radar. They had two bad games in the regular season against the Terps and the Gophers but otherwise were fairly consistent. They had good spark from Rudock on the one hand but his interceptions were very untimely, including the on he threw to ISU in last year's affair. Iowa was up 14-3 five or six minutes into the second half when Rudock threw a pick that ISU returned to roughly the 30 yard line and it completely changed momentum in that game. ISU went on to kick a last second FG, Rudock is gone, Beatheard is in. He played well week 1 in what I believe was his first college start, not 100% sure on that but you get the idea. Speaking of which, the Hawkeyes played Illinois State last week which means this will be the second week in a row that they beat an ISU team. Illinois State lost by two for the FCS national title last year and they almost won that by rushing for 267 yards. Iowa held them to 35 rushing yards and 14 first downs. They gave up 14 points but that was all in the fourth against the second string after the game was decided. They have the old school mentality to winning football games ... run it and play good defense and it looks like the pieces are in place. I really like this team this season. Now, the Clones had what looks like an impressive 31-7 win against Northern Iowa in week 1 but to me it wasn't that impressive. They had a long punt return for one score, returned another kick 34 yards to the niu 23 yard line for a short field, a two play 43 yard drive after a 29 yard shanked punt out of bounds, and a 38 yard drive after an interception. They didn't really drive the field. I don't mind Richardson for the Clones. He is decent enough, heck he is one of the few players I have watched live when he was down in Austin and one of my two best friends had an extra ticket but they don't have a ton to hang their hat on for this game. The home field in this rivalry has not been a huge deal of late, the death of Tyler Sash might give Iowa an added motivational edge, this is not just a rivalry but a true revenge game as well, and Iowa is just playing better football, as they did last year against Iowa State, as they did for the season compared to Iowa State and as they did last week when compared to Iowa State. Iowa State was outgained by roughly 1900 yards last year ... they just are not very good. Iowa had one of the best run defenses in the country last year and it looks good to me again for this year and that means Richardson has to do it.... the wr actually aren't that bad ... but I think it is asking too much to expect them to win. Big Brother 30 Little Brother 18
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muy intersante. i'm kind of high on beathard, or just a lot lower on rudock and seeing what this beathard kid's ceiling is. clones have legit corners, but they're small, and if the clones still can't manufacture a pass rush (even with the juco transfer), then i think you're predicted score is on the money.

the fear is the iowa o line for me, it's never good when you have a walk on starting at LT, especially after your two tackles are gone. but the clone's haven't had a pass rush in a decade, so it's mitigated somewhat.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
You can say that about the Vegas books, with the exception of one that's south of the south end of the Strip and employs one of our members. I'm not sure it's fair to direct that sort of vitriol to us offshore that at least try to create the illusion of a level playing field.
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guys like tony? he's scum. the legal system makes vegas play fair and as a result, they get punished for hanging +7.5 instead of -7.5 as they should. otherwise, i can't even imagine. Books do all sorts of bullshit..slow pay, take back bonuses, put you on delay, not let you cancel a bet when they cancel their errors all the fucking time...yeah, like i said, F em.
 
Elbutre88 said:
muy intersante. i'm kind of high on beathard, or just a lot lower on rudock and seeing what this beathard kid's ceiling is. clones have legit corners, but they're small, and if the clones still can't manufacture a pass rush (even with the juco transfer), then i think you're predicted score is on the money.

the fear is the iowa o line for me, it's never good when you have a walk on starting at LT, especially after your two tackles are gone. but the clone's haven't had a pass rush in a decade, so it's mitigated somewhat.
Click to expand...

Iowa reloads Tackles. look at nfl rosters.. how are tornados going the scheme Drew Ott? double and triple teams I suppose. predictable paul Rhodes gameplan.. Leaving Norm Jr plenty of movable chess pieces.. bunch of other matchup plusses.. usually fade iowa early, but not here. Iowa by DD IMO. Defensive dominance.
 
clowncar said:
That is actually one of my angles. It looks like Urban is going to let Barrett score the garbage pts when the game is in hand and that is really bad news for exhausted opponents late ....
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I think you are going to see that trend a lot this year.. I just don't see him laying off the gas very much this season ... This is the season we were supposed to contend... This is the season he prepared for ... I just see a lot of sloppy one sided games... I see a lot of overs damn near being covered by the buckeyes alone.. Going to be fun!!
 
tee*dub said:
Iowa reloads Tackles. look at nfl rosters.. how are tornados going the scheme Drew Ott? double and triple teams I suppose. predictable paul Rhodes gameplan.. Leaving Norm Jr plenty of movable chess pieces.. bunch of other matchup plusses.. usually fade iowa early, but not here. Iowa by DD IMO. Defensive dominance.
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Was already planning on this being one of my favorite plays of the week.. No idea how happy I am seeing you endorse it.. Hope all is well buddy.. BOL this season tee-dub...
 
Got it. Thx for the explanation.

Alan Tongue said:
No, if you think the line is off then good luck, you are a geniune customer. I'm taking about the guys that would come on at Baylor +20 and claim they thought it was genuine, guys who would jump on solely because Pinnacle moved half a point, who will take +105 with you because some book in Albania is +105 the other side. They account for about 1% of all accounts but 50% of the headaches.

The worst is the guy that rings up about golf, wanting 50/1 on the guy that is 40/1. He wants 50/1 so he can arb it on Betfair at 45. I tell him no, the price is 40/1, so he goes on twitter bitching about you to his 3000 followers.
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Only slight concern here is that OSU is coming off a very short week of practice after a physical game against VT. Urban has acknowledged this and might be a bit quicker to pull the first teamers. On the flip side, OSU gets 4 fresh starters coming back off suspension which could also provide something of an emotional boost.

I don't think it's so much about Urban wanting to cover spreads as it will be a responsibility to Barrett to give him LEGIT game reps. Barrett is not going to come in the game and hand the ball of 20 times. They will run their offense and do what they do until the final whistle blows.

jimbof20 said:
I think you are going to see that trend a lot this year.. I just don't see him laying off the gas very much this season ... This is the season we were supposed to contend... This is the season he prepared for ... I just see a lot of sloppy one sided games... I see a lot of overs damn near being covered by the buckeyes alone.. Going to be fun!!
Click to expand...
 
Elbutre88 said:
muy intersante. i'm kind of high on beathard, or just a lot lower on rudock and seeing what this beathard kid's ceiling is. clones have legit corners, but they're small, and if the clones still can't manufacture a pass rush (even with the juco transfer), then i think you're predicted score is on the money.

the fear is the iowa o line for me, it's never good when you have a walk on starting at LT, especially after your two tackles are gone. but the clone's haven't had a pass rush in a decade, so it's mitigated somewhat.
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I actually typed a response earlier and thought I submitted. Sorry for being late. I guess the one area that I really trust Iowa coaching (and i have said this many times over the years) is the offensive line. Ferentz usually takes personal interest in that unit and as Tee said above, they just continually produce professional talent from their olines (and oline recruits know it). Also, to elaborate (or repeat) on what Tee said ... I think it is defensive dominance as well.
 
jimbof20 said:
Was already planning on this being one of my favorite plays of the week.. No idea how happy I am seeing you endorse it.. Hope all is well buddy.. BOL this season tee-dub...
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Usually not bad being with Tee .. and especially so with games involving specific teams .. Iowa leading the pack of those specific teams. Have actually seen Iowa the same as Tee for the most part over the years.
 
tee*dub said:
Iowa reloads Tackles. look at nfl rosters.. how are tornados going the scheme Drew Ott? double and triple teams I suppose. predictable paul Rhodes gameplan.. Leaving Norm Jr plenty of movable chess pieces.. bunch of other matchup plusses.. usually fade iowa early, but not here. Iowa by DD IMO. Defensive dominance.
Click to expand...


I know you were a big Sash fan. Do you think that can have an impact either negatively or positively on the motivation/distraction front?
 
phife said:
Only slight concern here is that OSU is coming off a very short week of practice after a physical game against VT. Urban has acknowledged this and might be a bit quicker to pull the first teamers. On the flip side, OSU gets 4 fresh starters coming back off suspension which could also provide something of an emotional boost.

I don't think it's so much about Urban wanting to cover spreads as it will be a responsibility to Barrett to give him LEGIT game reps. Barrett is not going to come in the game and hand the ball of 20 times. They will run their offense and do what they do until the final whistle blows.
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I watched Hawaii .. TOSU is going to have to work hard to not cover.
 
Let's look at a few more losses from last week:

Arizona minus the pts - This was a game where I completely missed the boat on how UTSA would perform offensively. I thought they would struggle which would lead to a big Zona lead which would snowball when UTSA became one dimensional. I thought Zona would do well at the line of scrimmage given the extensive losses along the defensive front of the roadrunners. I was pretty sure Zona could name their score to a degree. Wrong. The UTSA QB (I have a better shot of hitting 60% than of ever spelling his name right) was 25 of 43 for 332. They also rushed for 193 yards. They had a lot of chunk plays on offense too with something like ten different players either rushing for over ten yards in a play or catching a ball for over ten yards. They had 29 FD to Arizonas 25. They had 525 yards to Arizonas 392. I was laying over four td's on zona. That is as bad as it gets. To be fair, Scooby got hurt early in the game and that was a huge loss to their defense in general going forward but it was especially tough on them for that game. Grade: F Minus
 
Ga southern plus the pts -- I know I have discussed this elsewhere but not sure if it was in this thread ... but I was left making a decision on whether my side had more value than a middle. I rarely have as much value in a single sporting event as I did with Ga Southern but I also felt it was a bad match up for them. Then they lost their QB and I really thought they were in for it but I just couldn't bring myself to not keep the Ga Southern side. I think at one point I had the game capped at 37-20 .... I adjusted the side up and total down later and did take that under. Several things I noticed in that game which I shared with some of the guys I cap with on the regular ... Ga Southern did not run their same offense in that game. It seemed like the pitch part of the option attack was nearly removed. WVU was loading the box but Ga Southern never challenged them horizontally. They also threw way more early than normal. I understand Upshaw has different skill sets than the suspended QB (theoretically a better passer compared to Ellison but a worse runner) but for one WV player to get three interceptions in one quarter is just crazy against Ga Southern. The whole team had 155 pass attempts last year. And here you are a huge underdog against better athletes, where the option attack should be somewhat of an equalizer by eating clock and largely having positive yard plays for field position and Ga Southern was passing it. It didn't make a lot of sense to me. In any event, Ga southern had two completions in the game and WV had 4 interceptions. That takes effort. WV just smothered them at the line of scrimmage and they looked rather nasty on defense in my opinion and the team played inspired. Ga southern also showed some secondary weaknesses with Howard hitting some receivers over the top of the eagle defenders. It was domination from the first play to the last play. I think the neers have a really good run defense so I am willing to look the other way as far as what Ga Southern is capable of doing this year but I also think the oline looked pretty bad in week 1. So if that continues it could be trouble for them all year no matter who is at QB. 544 to 224 in total yards and having watched the game i was shocked ga southern had that many. Total destruction. Grade F Minus (sort of).
 
Kentucky -14 -- OK I want to talk about this possibly being a mistake but doing so in a way that makes me feel better about myself. I liked TCU and Okst on paper at the numbers presented but I just didn't see the history of road domination from either of those teams last year and it led me to lay off both games. Both dogs covered. I failed to avoid the same exact type trap with Kentucky as they just are not a team that should be trusted to blow out opponents with a pulse. To be fair it was 33-10 pretty deep into the third quarter and laying just 14, and ULL being forced into offense they don't prefer to run, I felt pretty good. Then the wheels fell off the UK defense. ULL actually came all the way back to tie the game at 33 before Kentucky finished them off at 40-33. ULL outgained them 479 to 435 and out first downed them 27 to 18. Still, I think a decent portion of that was late with Kentucky having let up some. But when you are outgained and out first downed with a two or more score favorite and the game is tied late in the fourth, you made a bad investment. When that team is also a team that is not normally a two or more score favorite, then you really made a bad bet. This was winnable and I may be being a tad harsh with my grade but here comes another big fat F Minus. Louisiana was the correct side.
 
[TABLE="width: 887"]
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col span="5"></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Investment[/TD]
[TD]In [/TD]
[TD]Current/Close[/TD]
[TD]Variance[/TD]
[TD]Final Score[/TD]
[TD]Result[/TD]
[TD]Win[/TD]
[TD]Loss [/TD]
[TD]Tie[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD]LSU -2[/TD]
[TD]-2[/TD]
[TD]-3.5[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD]SMU -1.5[/TD]
[TD]-1.5[/TD]
[TD]-5.5[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD]Wake Forest 5.5[/TD]
[TD]5.5[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD]Umass 14.5[/TD]
[TD]14.5[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota -5.5[/TD]
[TD]-5.5[/TD]
[TD]-4.5[/TD]
[TD]-1[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD]NotreDame -8.5[/TD]
[TD]-8.5[/TD]
[TD]-11.5[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD]Eastern Michigan 12.5[/TD]
[TD]12.5[/TD]
[TD]13.5[/TD]
[TD]-1[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD]Arizona -11[/TD]
[TD]-11[/TD]
[TD]-11[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD]Stanford -17[/TD]
[TD]-17[/TD]
[TD]-18.5[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD]Marshall -6[/TD]
[TD]-6[/TD]
[TD]-3[/TD]
[TD]-3[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD]Nebraska -26[/TD]
[TD]-26[/TD]
[TD]-27.5[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[TD]SJSU 7.5[/TD]
[TD]7.5[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD]wky -2 -112[/TD]
[TD]-2[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD]-4.5[/TD]
[TD]WKU 41 LT 38[/TD]
[TD]Winner[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]juiced[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD]Oklahomo +1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]-1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD]Utah -12[/TD]
[TD]-12[/TD]
[TD]-12[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
[TD]Army/Uconn Over 48[/TD]
[TD]-48[/TD]
[TD]-47[/TD]
[TD]-1[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
[TD]Houston/Ville over 53.5[/TD]
[TD]-53.5[/TD]
[TD]-53.5[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]18[/TD]
[TD]Wake Forest/Cuse over 43.5[/TD]
[TD]-43.5[/TD]
[TD]-43.5[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]19[/TD]
[TD]Iowa/ISU under 54[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]51[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]20[/TD]
[TD]wmich/gasouthern over 56[/TD]
[TD]-56[/TD]
[TD]-54.5[/TD]
[TD]-1.5[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD]Florida -20[/TD]
[TD]-20[/TD]
[TD]-20.5[/TD]
[TD]0.5[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]22[/TD]
[TD]Memphis/Kansas over 56[/TD]
[TD]-56[/TD]
[TD]-61.5[/TD]
[TD]5.5[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]23[/TD]
[TD]UNT/SMU over 56[/TD]
[TD]-56[/TD]
[TD]-61[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]24[/TD]
[TD]Rice/Texas over 50.5[/TD]
[TD]-50.5[/TD]
[TD]-48.5[/TD]
[TD]-2[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]25[/TD]
[TD]Iowa -3 -122[/TD]
[TD]-3[/TD]
[TD]-3[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]juiced[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]26[/TD]
[TD]TOSU -38[/TD]
[TD]-38[/TD]
[TD]-41[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]27[/TD]
[TD]PSU -20.5[/TD]
[TD]-20.5[/TD]
[TD]-18.5[/TD]
[TD]-2[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]28[/TD]
[TD]Georgia -19.5[/TD]
[TD]-19.5[/TD]
[TD]-21[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Total Variance[/TD]
[TD]20.5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 3"]Weekly Record[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Average Variance[/TD]
[TD]0.73[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100.0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 3"]Previous Record[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]57.5%[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 3"]Overall Record[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]58.5%[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
As you can see here from week one to two ... it gets tougher to be right about market and it will just get tougher.

As it sits I have 8 games where I have the worst of the number for this week so far. The worst line of the bunch did win tonight ironically enough.
I found PSU late and perhaps am rightly punished not just for laying pts with those bums on their offense but also for being gunshy early.
I understand the want for some to take the under in the uconn game .. two bad teams, one runs the ball every play, the other hasn't seen good QB play in a long time. I am sort of leaning on a scouting report of the Army defense from Cubsker, which really influenced my decision to go ahead and take this over. But I get the move from the market at the same time.
Minnesota moved against me. If it closes here I won't be too upset but if it closes 4 I will be. Untrustworthy offense on the road at altitude after a big game home loss to a playoff contender against team that will be motivated against them. I get it.
I got Marshall in at an odd time and then they played badly against purdue and the line moved down for this one. Based on the Purdue performance week one and the Ohio performance in week one, it isn't too surprising. I like Purdue's football team a little bit and expected them to fight with Marshall some. But I get it.
wmich/gasouthern total moved down. I think this has to do with the ineffectiveness of Upshaw in the game last week coupled with the unanswered question about whether the oline losses would hurt gsu badly seemingly answered with a "yes they will". But I saw wide open guys deep against ga southern all game against wvu and I saw some weak rush defense from WMich. It would seem the combination of those defensive weaknesses line up to convert to an over. I think the downward move is an overreaction and I don't really get it .. but I kinda get it after one of the teams was shut out the week before.
Rice/Texas total moved down ... I could be in trouble here.
 
Guys pay attention to rain and wind this week. There are some possible weather situations out there. I forgot about that when I said TOSU would have to work hard to not cover .. Mother Nature could potentially end up being the best player for Hawaii.
 
Leans I am looking at still:

Miami/FAU under the total 56

UConn at -6 for sure, if I can get a -6.5, I might play it.

UTSA plus the pts - What if the Zona game was more than just Zona playing bad without Scooby? I cannot win a UTSA game, can never win a fade of Snyder... maybe when they play eachother it would pan out.

SDSU - I liked Cal, got greedy and then found out everyone else liked Cal too and the number is long gone. At 14 it has gotten carried away to a point I have to glance at a decent SDSU squad, even though they are banged up in the worst way imaginable for this matchup. Not very likely I add this but I haven't eliminated it.

Kansas - Backdoor will be open if nothing else.

Rice - Charlie is in big trouble.

Tulsa/UNM under -- I doubt it but they keep betting it like it is free money and it is Very high now. I realize Tulsa run defense was really bad last week but unm eats clock by the nature of their offense. It's hard for me to not glance at an under in the midseventies involving one of the top fifteen slowest paced teams in the nation. If it keeps rising I can add late Saturday.
 
We sure hope so,” Creighton said Monday when asked if Bell will play. “He’s sore. We’re hopeful, but until we hear from the (doctors), we won’t know for sure.”
Reports from Michigan media outlets indicated that Bell is “questionable” and, like UW quarterback Cameron Coffman, will be a game-time decision.
Click to expand...


Makes me think Bell is more likely a go than not a go .. in which case, this line would be borderline ridiculous. I also suspect you will see a lot more "jaw injuries" in college football now that there is increased attention to concussions. Players don't want the stigma and coaches don't want the pressure of playing or sitting a guy a week after he got concussed. Just a theory I have about what happened to Bell last week and one of the reasons I think he is a go for this week. I like emu to cover that number regardless of who plays QB but if it is Bell then I have to consider a ML ticket.
 
Agreed on EMU. Locked in +14 while it was still available.

Love you threads, cc, one of the main reasons I'm glad I was introduced to this forum.
 
BOL this week Kyle. I missed the Memphis/Kan total and have played it on bought points on a parlay but even at 61.5 it still looks good. Kansas figures to run a shit ton of plays and not burn much clock and then they can't stop anybody so would figure Memphis to hang 40+. Figure Memphis TT to be 37. How many you figure Kansas to contribute to the cause?
 
Timh said:
BOL this week Kyle. I missed the Memphis/Kan total and have played it on bought points on a parlay but even at 61.5 it still looks good. Kansas figures to run a shit ton of plays and not burn much clock and then they can't stop anybody so would figure Memphis to hang 40+. Figure Memphis TT to be 37. How many you figure Kansas to contribute to the cause?
Click to expand...


More than 20. I give them an outside chance of pulling the shocker. (No, not that shocker, Bear). Cozart actually looked competent ... was watching out of one eye with Horses last weekend. Kept commenting on how good he was playing .. at first jokingly but after a bit I realized their offense is just a lot better this year. Team showed heart too which means they are probably buying in and the fans there seemed to be supportive rather than negative despite getting beat by a lower division school. Maybe progress there .. but in any event we are going to see a lot of plays and in both instances I think the edge lies with the offenses.
 
clowncar said:
I know you were a big Sash fan. Do you think that can have an impact either negatively or positively on the motivation/distraction front?
Click to expand...

Hey Kyle. Ya, was big Sash fan as you know. Met him a few times after he graduated at events but didn't really know him. Adored him as a player, from afar. (for those not familiar with story I have posted the news article below)

Kick to the nuts for sure. The official cause of death has not been released and when it is, it will be a head shaker. Its not hard to read between the lines from several quotes on Twitter of former teammates. And I just saw this:

Former Iowa teammates and ex-Giants who knew him took to Twitter to express their sorrow, but 140 characters never seems like enough.
“Some mental instability at the end where he figured that it was easier to just end it, which is … it’s tough,” Herzlich said. “And you never think it’s gonna get to that. … There’s life after football, but it’s not the same. And you realize that with what happened with Tyler.”

Very difficult to use this as a possible handicapping angle but history tells me its a Situational angle to look at.

It must be noted that none of the current Iowa players played with Sash, although he was very close to the program after graduation and he was pretty much a legend among hawkeye loyalists. Why wouldn't he be? Small town iowa kid who played like his hair was on fire. Was a great teammate and a friend to all according to all accounts I have heard..

Interestingly, his best games were the game that is this week. I think 25% of his career interceptions were against Iowa state including a 3 interception game in 2009.

Situational edge? maybe.. I think its a bigger deal for the coaches than the players as most didn't know him or play with him. Ferentz reportedly was very shaken, cancelling his Tuesday press conference and generally seemed very broken down Wednesday.. Iowa plays well in these spots. Remember the death of former Defense coordinator Norm Parker? Iowa played very well after that.. This game is in Ames and the Iowa State officials have been very classy in announcing they will observe a moment of silence before kickoff. Iowa will also wear a really cool helmet decal with Sash's #9. Ferentz is a family guy and many players say he is like a father figure to them.. I think he will get every ounce out of them here... But its a big rivalry game so effort is never short on either end..

So to answer the question--- yes, I think it is a situational positive for Iowa, but to be honest the main reason for this play is the matchups for me. The Iowa defense vs Iowa state offense looks like a mismatch to me..

Another thing on Sash. Some will remember I used to call CTG member Buckeye Burrito "Sash" several years ago. He played basketball with him and knew him I think.

Its all very sad to me Kyle. Mental illness is something that is so sad especially with young people. I've been close to it before..
 
Former Iowa and New York Giants safety Tyler Sash has died at age 27.
The Iowa state medical examiner's office confirmed Sash's death to ESPN.com. An official said an autopsy would be performed Wednesday. Funeral arrangements are pending, the University of Iowa said in a statement.
Emergency services responded to 719 Fox Run Drive around 10 a.m. CT Tuesday in reference to an unresponsive male, according to the Oskaloosa, Iowa, police department. It was determined the man had died, and he was identified as Sash, who lived in Oskaloosa.
"Sash's death is under investigation, but no foul play is suspected," the police department said.
<aside class="inline inline-photo full"><figure>
i
</picture><figcaption class="photoCaption">Tyler Sash, 27, died in his hometown of Oskaloosa, Iowa. The Giants picked him in the sixth round of the 2011 draft and released him in August 2013. <cite>Jason Bridge/USA TODAY Sports</cite></figcaption></figure></aside>Sash starred for Iowa, where he recorded 13 interceptions and set a team record with 392 interception return yards. He left school after his junior season and was a sixth-round pick of the Giants in the 2011 NFL draft. Sash spent two seasons with the Giants, winning a Super Bowl, before being cut in August 2013.
 
Thanks Tee. Don't have a lot to add to it and like you, I feel a little uncomfortable talking about it from a handicapping standpoint. Trivializes his death and life and neither of us are about that. But at the same time, I kind of wondered at the same time. They are playing the game regardless.
 
ADD

UConn -7
UTSA/KSU under 52
BG/Maryland under 71.5
Pitt/Akron under 50
Tulsa/UNM under 74
Kentucky/Scarolina under 55.5
 
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