time to post me week two card so far

Great seeing you this past weekend CC; good luck this week. I like your takes on Nebraska and Ohio St.
 
There was some good humor. Paul has especially good delivery. Was fun giving a high five after penn state went up 10-0, knowing that was an easy psu spread win from there.
 
VK I will likely show up on your doorstep at some unforeseen moment, like Arenabowl or something

Keep your beeper on
 
Would seem that market was not impressed with Purdue handling of Marshall in defeat week 1. Hammering Ohio like it is free money. But the Bobcats gave up 300 yards passing to Idaho and rate to give up similar type numbers to Marshall. But on the other side of the ball this is a big step up in defensive competition for Ohio. I haven't seen Derrius Vick have back to back good games since .. well ever. Have to think Birdsong continues to progress and that a few more big plays are available to this offense this week. I don't think people are giving Purdue enough credit. Not saying they are world beaters or anything but I think they aren't their normal doormat selves this year. You are going to have to work harder to earn wins on them. So while I think Marshall played poorly in that game, I think I saw flashes of the Marshall we know. PR has this a bit higher making this an ok play in that regard as well. Backdoor is probably open which is a concern. This game was 27-0 at halftime last year. Ohio was anemic on offense in 2014, and while they scored on Idaho with relative ease in week 1, they did that to Idaho last year as well. Marshall has dropped a bit season over season and I think Ohio might be a little better year over year but I don't see enough difference to think Ohio keeps this within a score. PR also has this north of a TD so getting some key number value. I dunno, maybe I am not discrediting Marshall enough for their bad play in week one.
 
Pretty bold to imply Birdsong is better than Vick at this point; 0/4 ratio v Purdue at home? Swapping out Cato for this clown renders last years result virtually meaningless in my opinion.
 
lindetrain said:
Being first to open served no real purpose for us last year...if we got the press like Wynn always did, it would be worth the trouble, but we didn't, and just got beat up by sharp guys and chasers instead. They only bet the mistakes and never the ones we got right. As much as I loved going up early as I got to be a part of the process, it just didn't make much sense to keep doing it when no media was willing to acknowledge us.
Click to expand...

I agree. Going up first is just a marketing exercise and a pissing contest. If you guys trust your consensus line then let the others go up and play off them. You can then go up a different line then you otherwise would have. As you would have learnt by now the game is to lay it at the shortest possible price. No need to give away cents or points if you don't have to
 
clowncar said:
Would seem that market was not impressed with Purdue handling of Marshall in defeat week 1. Hammering Ohio like it is free money. But the Bobcats gave up 300 yards passing to Idaho and rate to give up similar type numbers to Marshall. But on the other side of the ball this is a big step up in defensive competition for Ohio. I haven't seen Derrius Vick have back to back good games since .. well ever. Have to think Birdsong continues to progress and that a few more big plays are available to this offense this week. I don't think people are giving Purdue enough credit. Not saying they are world beaters or anything but I think they aren't their normal doormat selves this year. You are going to have to work harder to earn wins on them. So while I think Marshall played poorly in that game, I think I saw flashes of the Marshall we know. PR has this a bit higher making this an ok play in that regard as well. Backdoor is probably open which is a concern. This game was 27-0 at halftime last year. Ohio was anemic on offense in 2014, and while they scored on Idaho with relative ease in week 1, they did that to Idaho last year as well. Marshall has dropped a bit season over season and I think Ohio might be a little better year over year but I don't see enough difference to think Ohio keeps this within a score. PR also has this north of a TD so getting some key number value. I dunno, maybe I am not discrediting Marshall enough for their bad play in week one.
Click to expand...

Watched most of Ohio's win over Idaho on Thursday night and I thought Idaho's defensive tackling was some of the worst I have seen at D1. (So bad, I am seriously considering laying 43.5 with USC this weekend.)
I do like Derrius Vick and was pissed at Solich for playing Sprague so much. I thought it ruined the Bobcat momentum in the second quarter which allowed Idaho to climb back into the game (well, sort of.) Ouliette looked like he picked up where he left off last year and the freshman Papi White as well as Daz Patterson both played very well. WR core looked good as well making some great catches. I guess what i am saying is that (barring injuries) I expect the Bobcats to have a potent offense this year.
Defensively, I thought they looked average--Idaho kept a number of drives alive with fourth down conversions but the pass defense was definitely leaky at times--especially some of the safety play. Linebacking will probably be the defensive strength of this team, I liked how they read their keys and got off blocks in the Kibbie Dome. Lang had 17 tackles and Pohling was flying around as well.

Marshall v Ohio is a pretty big rivalry and I can see why people are taking the Bobcats at home and the points. But as an OU homer I worry about the trenches and whether Marshall's passing attack can dominate this game given how Idaho often had guys open.

Just as a general note here, Ohio had so many injuries last season (and the season before) I think it's really hard to say exactly how good they are at full strength. I think there are some wildly differing opinions on that topic and that is why the line is getting pounded (plus home team dog).

I don't think I will be on this game either way unless I hit the over...
 
clowncar said:
It's not a hijack, it's a service to everyone reading.

The thing is ... the sharps make mistakes too. No one can make a batch of numbers and not have mistakes. No one. I don't care who you are, or what group you are. The problem for the books with sharps is that MOST of the sharps are going to nail the mistakes but each individual sharp is only going to bet his mistakes. The others are not following. IMO the smart bookmaker looks at the early sharp bets as a service rather than annoyance, other than the one book which is putting out their stuff first. I have found more problems with betting slow movers than betting early with books. You guys seem to get more annoyed with people when they bet your rogue number than when they bet a bad market number.
Click to expand...

I definitely dislike screen chasers much more than guys who can spot a bad number on their own.

The problem with the early week plays is they rarely seem to have any relation to the big money sides that come in later. The guys who play early are just betting numbers they know are wrong, the guys who play late are betting the winner (or "right side") IMO. Seeing what a sharp guy does on Monday doesn't really give me any valuable info for when limits open up later. It mostly just tells me the current number is bad.
 
Alan Tongue said:
I agree. Going up first is just a marketing exercise and a pissing contest. If you guys trust your consensus line then let the others go up and play off them. You can then go up a different line then you otherwise would have. As you would have learnt by now the game is to lay it at the shortest possible price. No need to give away cents or points if you don't have to
Click to expand...

Pretty sure 90% of guys that book in town don't understand this concept. Stay market, stay market, stay market.
 
lindetrain said:
I definitely dislike screen chasers much more than guys who can spot a bad number on their own.

The problem with the early week plays is they rarely seem to have any relation to the big money sides that come in later. The guys who play early are just betting numbers they know are wrong, the guys who play late are betting the winner (or "right side") IMO. Seeing what a sharp guy does on Monday doesn't really give me any valuable info for when limits open up later. It mostly just tells me the current number is bad.
Click to expand...

Worst animals in the game

1. Arbers/hedgers
2. Steam chasers
3. Those that pick off errors (not line off by a few by +7.5 instead of -7.5)

All are lower then shark shit. Have an opinion

The guys coming in early in the week are just hoovering up the bad line before others get to it. They know it won’t last. We touched on it in Rexs thread last week, but limits are bad early these days. The importance of the line movement is in correlation with the prevailing limits. I think RAS and Dr Bob are going to have pissed customers as the season goes on. It’s not just limited to college and limits, Pinnacle are still sitting on 102.5% for the opening NFL game
 
Alan Tongue said:
Worst animals in the game

1. Arbers/hedgers
2. Steam chasers
3. Those that pick off errors (not line off by a few by +7.5 instead of -7.5)

All are lower then shark shit. Have an opinion

The guys coming in early in the week are just hoovering up the bad line before others get to it. They know it won’t last. We touched on it in Rexs thread last week, but limits are bad early these days. The importance of the line movement is in correlation with the prevailing limits. I think RAS and Dr Bob are going to have pissed customers as the season goes on. It’s not just limited to college and limits, Pinnacle are still sitting on 102.5% for the opening NFL game
Click to expand...


are you saying these are the guys that are the best at gambling or the ones that books hate or both?
 
twinkie13 said:
are you saying these are the guys that are the best at gambling or the ones that books hate or both?
Click to expand...

They are skunks, grubs, pests, bottom feeders, whatever you want to call them. They have no opinion of their own, they just leach off the work of others.
 
I'm a little bit lost here. Are you directing these comments toward all bettors or only those with wager amounts capable of moving lines?

I bet a decent amount, but I'm no whale. I probably fall somewhere in the middle and this isn't my profession. If a book releases a crap line (i.e., Baylor -20 against SMU last week) am I supposed to ignore and wait until the book corrects itself when kickoff rolls around in the name of 'sportsmanship'?

I always thought the name of the game was to win and take advantage of any inefficiencies.


Alan Tongue said:
3. Those that pick off errors (not line off by a few by +7.5 instead of -7.5)

All are lower then shark shit. Have an opinion

The guys coming in early in the week are just hoovering up the bad line before others get to it.
Click to expand...
 
phife said:
I'm a little bit lost here. Are you directing these comments toward all bettors or only those with wager amounts capable of moving lines?

I bet a decent amount, but I'm no whale. I probably fall somewhere in the middle and this isn't my profession. If a book releases a crap line (i.e., Baylor -20 against SMU last week) am I supposed to ignore and wait until the book corrects itself when kickoff rolls around in the name of 'sportsmanship'?

I always thought the name of the game was to win and take advantage of any inefficiencies.
Click to expand...

I think that is a different kind of mistake than what he is talking about. He is more talking Colts -10 against Bucs accidentally being +10, I am pretty sure the books look at week 1 of any sport as a little different in that regard. His point on steam chasers, mistake bettors, hedgers/middlers is that they are basically making all of their plays without a true opinion of the game. Steam chasers just want to be on the side the big money is on, the middlers/hedgers/siders are just taking shots at the book with little risk and by definition are probably abusing a slow moving book, and error bettors are just taking advantage of data entry errors.
Lowering limits, cutting people off from betting, shuffling a deck of cards after every hand in blackjack, stealing your points/comps/cashback, treating you super nice when you win once and treating you like shit at the point when they realize you are going to keep winning, refusal to pay if they feel you took advantage of any mistakes they make (while their entire business is predicated on other people making mistakes) and I could go on and on and on .... Casinos are pretty ruthless in their own right.
 
Casinos and books don't play fair at all. Anything you can do to get an edge is fair game. F them.
 
clowncar said:
This is probably a stupid Addition because it looks like it is motoring down to 3 and I shouldnt have to lay all this juice to get it. Someone more patient might be able to get better but I want this at 3 to play it and I want to play it.

ADD
IOWA -3 -122
Click to expand...

if you got time on this, i'd love to hear it.
 
clowncar said:
That is actually one of my angles. It looks like Urban is going to let Barrett score the garbage pts when the game is in hand and that is really bad news for exhausted opponents late ....
Click to expand...


Urban likes to cover spreads :)
 
cubsker said:
Casinos and books don't play fair at all. Anything you can do to get an edge is fair game. F them.
Click to expand...

You can say that about the Vegas books, with the exception of one that's south of the south end of the Strip and employs one of our members. I'm not sure it's fair to direct that sort of vitriol to us offshore that at least try to create the illusion of a level playing field.
 
phife said:
I'm a little bit lost here. Are you directing these comments toward all bettors or only those with wager amounts capable of moving lines?

I bet a decent amount, but I'm no whale. I probably fall somewhere in the middle and this isn't my profession. If a book releases a crap line (i.e., Baylor -20 against SMU last week) am I supposed to ignore and wait until the book corrects itself when kickoff rolls around in the name of 'sportsmanship'?

I always thought the name of the game was to win and take advantage of any inefficiencies.
Click to expand...

No, if you think the line is off then good luck, you are a geniune customer. I'm taking about the guys that would come on at Baylor +20 and claim they thought it was genuine, guys who would jump on solely because Pinnacle moved half a point, who will take +105 with you because some book in Albania is +105 the other side. They account for about 1% of all accounts but 50% of the headaches.

The worst is the guy that rings up about golf, wanting 50/1 on the guy that is 40/1. He wants 50/1 so he can arb it on Betfair at 45. I tell him no, the price is 40/1, so he goes on twitter bitching about you to his 3000 followers.
 
M.W. said:
What do you mean by "round book philosophies"?
Click to expand...

Equal liabilities, or close to, on both sides. It's silly. 95% of all gamblers lose. so if a smart guy comes on for 5000 on one side and 100 guys come on for $100 on the other side you are in the situation where if the long term winner wins you win 5k, if the 95% win you lose 5k. Long term, what is most likely to happen long term? So why give back 2500 to create a round book?
 
Ok a quick recap of week 1 in summary

I went 23-17-1 and it was a very disappointing week.
I averaged 4.5 pts better than close for the week.
I won at a 57.5% clip.
I got the worst of close in four games. I won three of those. 75%
I had three games where my number was the same as close. I lost all three. 0%
I had 34 games where I beat close. I won 20 of those and pushed 1. 61%

Of interest, two of the games I got the worst of the number were games that I bought off of either to middle or escape. My original wager beat the close both instances. 1-1 in those. 50% for the bad math folks.

As I don't have time for a ton of normal detail with this many plays .. I will rapid fire threw a bunch tonight ... with some thoughts. I will only be doing the losses this week and if I have time, I will include a couple games where I don't believe I deserved to win.
 
Tulane - I took tulane and a couple TD's and pretty much told everyone I could in the world that they had a good shot at the upset. They lost 37-7 and I did not see a play of the game. I didn't have to in order to realize this was a bad investment this particular day. Duke had 29 FD to Tul 14. Duke had 530 yards to Tulane 271 yards. Even worse, 76 of those 271 yards came on one play for Tulane. Sirk was 27/40 for 289, 2 TD and no picks. Tanner Lee was 24 of 42 for 246 yards with a TD and a pick. Again, 76 of those 246 came on one pass play. Duke had more penalties and more Turnovers. One of the major issues of the game from my investment's standpoint was that the field position was consistently bad for Tulane which made life very difficult on them and easier for Duke. Even when Tulane got the long TD pass in the fourth quarter to cut the lead to 23-7 with ten minutes to go (and presumably make Tulane a favorite to cover the early numbers), the Devils ran the ensuing kickoff back 95 yards for a TD to make it 30-7 and flip the field. Obviously I didn't see Duke dominating in this fashion and it is hard to say this is anything but a bad investment. Just the same, it could be argued that game dynamics made Tulane the favorite to cover after their TD in the fourth. GRADE D-
 
Ok , I peeked .
Like the SMU play. I played them last week when the line went over 35. That was my nut so I played it.
Reason was Davis. SMU has needed a QB for a while and Matt was going to be good for a few scores . I had hoped it would be enough and it was just barely. With a little enthusiasm from a new coach(couple of game boost), plus atone for last years embarrassment and this should set up well for them.
Moron I am, I've taken the over. UNT only hope is to score.

GL, sir

Press
 
Mr VK. I question your Wake Forest pick.(have I ever questioned one of your picks before?). Game last year in Winston Salem and ' use wins by 3 touchdowns +. This year they go in the Carrier Dome. On pre-season analyses,both teams are projected to fare similarly this year. First game results vs FCS brethren were similar.
tell me what I'm missing here.
kudos on a good opening week Keep it going.
 
bull said:
Mr VK. I question your Wake Forest pick.(have I ever questioned one of your picks before?). Game last year in Winston Salem and ' use wins by 3 touchdowns +. This year they go in the Carrier Dome. On pre-season analyses,both teams are projected to fare similarly this year. First game results vs FCS brethren were similar.
tell me what I'm missing here.
kudos on a good opening week Keep it going.
Click to expand...

Syracuse lost their starting QB for the entire year in the last game.
 
Thanks Mr Stix. Didn't know that. I think I probably still go for the Orange.
 
Agenda:
Iowa Thoughts
Wake Forest Thoughts
Losses updates
BYU/Boise thoughts

gfool - It doesn't hurt for Utah State be a bit short handed.
Gabe - It goes beyond Urban. The Ohio State program likes to cover spreads. I would have to think that most coaches could learn from that. Boosters bet.
Press - Hard to imagine that SMU defense is keeping UNT too low on the scoreboard, though I am not a fan of McNulty.
 
Alan Tongue said:
Equal liabilities, or close to, on both sides. It's silly. 95% of all gamblers lose. so if a smart guy comes on for 5000 on one side and 100 guys come on for $100 on the other side you are in the situation where if the long term winner wins you win 5k, if the 95% win you lose 5k. Long term, what is most likely to happen long term? So why give back 2500 to create a round book?
Click to expand...

Okay, then. I'm with you. The Kelly criterion applies at +110 every bit as much as it does at -110. If its oddsmakers have a clue, a book maximizes its profits by setting its number between the true line and the split-the-money line. At least in the short term. In the long term, maybe people stay away like they stay away from blackjack tables that shuffle too often.
 
Wake Forest – I have Wake Forest a half point favorite (if such a thing existed) over Cuse on a neutral with the QB, so without him, I am looking at Wake as about four pts better than Cuse with Cuse having about a similar sized hfa. Plus 170 on the moneyline therefore looks quite playable. Wake was playing pretty even with Cuse last year before Cuse had an int for a td and Wolford was knocked out of the game. He makes their offense (as bad as it is) go. Wake looks improved on offense, especially along the offensive line. Cuse completely outmatched Rhode Island along both the defensive and offensive lines and so they ran for 300 and gave up 0.2 yards per carry. RI didn’t win a game last year until they beat Towson in the finale. So they lost Hunt but it didn’t matter to them last week because they just owned the line of scrimmage. That is going to be tougher this week against Wake Forest and a Frosh QB is going to have to make some plays for the Orange to win. I am not putting a ton of weight to that huge outburts of offense from the Deacs against that Elon defense but they definitely look improved, more confident and have a decent player leading the way who might want some revenge for being knocked out of the game last year. Looking at year two with Clawson with 13/14 returning starters, including 7 on offense and a returning QB who is clearly "his guy"... so there is some reason to think they are going to be a lot better this year on offense. Two defensive scores last year for Cuse and I think we may actually see the reverse this year with Wake getting a defensive score. Wake 27 Cuse 20
 
What the heck ... I will call my shot with that game .. Wake Forest will score a non-offensive TD.
 
clowncar said:
Gar did Stanford for me. Basically, FIU somewhat dominated UCF in their own house and now UCF has coast to coast travel to play an angry Stanford club. Sorry, this is going to get very ugly. This isn't your big brothers UCF. They are not a reload team. Not going to go much further with a writeup as it basically boils down to me thinking UCF is a bad football team.
Click to expand...

You will see an almost verbatim write up on this one from me when I get back on the grid. Spot on. There will be blood.

A little nervous on your Utah pick. Although I agree with your assertion that Keeton is an albatross for them now(and honestly should probably be replaced with some of their depth), Utes were very lucky to get as much as they did last week on offense, I think it's entirely possible that they don't get to 21 on this solid Utah State D, and I'm thinking the Aggies probably didn't show much on offense for at least the first half with the Utes on deck. I think they'll get a much better offensive performance despite my reservations on Keeton...they'll probably stumble into 10 points by accident. 13 is too many for me even though Utah has covered 8 in a row in the non conference. I'm laying off that one.
 
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