time to post me week two card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
YTD 23-17-1

LSU -2
SMU -1.5
Wake Forest 5.5
Umass 14.5
Minnesota -5.5
NotreDame -8.5
Eastern Michigan 12.5
Arizona -11
Stanford -17
Marshall -6
Nebraska -26
SJSU 7.5
wky -2 -112
Oklahomo +1
Utah -12
Army/Uconn Over 48
Houston/Ville over 53.5
Wake Forest/Cuse over 43.5
Iowa/ISU under 54
wmich/gasouthern over 56
Florida -20
Memphis/Kansas over 56
UNT/SMU over 56
Rice/Texas over 50.5
Iowa -3 -122
TOSU -38
PSU -20.5
Georgia -19.5
Miami Fl/FAU under 56.5
UConn -7
UTSA/KSU under 52
BG/Maryland under 71.5
Pitt/Akron under 50
Tulsa/UNM under 74
Kentucky/Scarolina under 55.5
 
Last edited:
9/6/15

LSU -2
SMU -1.5
Wake Forest 5.5
Umass 14.5
Minnesota -5.5
NotreDame -8.5
Eastern Michigan 12.5
Arizona -11
Stanford -17
Marshall -6
Nebraska -26
SJSU 7.5
 
clowncar said:
Week 1 Record Here

LSU -2
SMU -1.5
Wake Forest 5.5
Umass 14.5
Minnesota -5.5
NotreDame -8.5
Eastern Michigan 12.5
Arizona -11
Stanford -17
Marshall -6
Nebraska -26
SJSU 7.5
Click to expand...

Note on EMU. They lost starting QB, Bell yesterdAy and I dont know his status. The backup looked terrible. He would bail on pocket with zero pressure. I was impressed with them, thought they would be terrible. (Hope its not idication that ODU is worse than I thought)

Seems like they will have an ok running game, zero passing game, and a decent pass rush.
 
It's more a fade of Wyoming laying DD than anything else, Dollaz. ODU hit Bell late repeatedly in that game.
 
Curious to your thoughts on A) Nebraska after that and B) Arizona after losing not just Scooby but Ippolito the week before, how it effects them mentally...that wtf mindset I prefer to avoid with college teams
 
kjohnson109 said:
Curious to your thoughts on A) Nebraska after that and B) Arizona after losing not just Scooby but Ippolito the week before, how it effects them mentally...that wtf mindset I prefer to avoid with college teams
Click to expand...


That is the concern and they certainly played like crap defensively after the Scooby injury. I think some of that is just the ingame shock of it. They would have to legitimately be as bad as they showed week 1 to not have value in this game after a bad performance like that. Nevada QB Stewart isn't horrible but I don't think they can keep up with Arizona. If they play as sloppy as they did against UTSA then they could lose outright. I just don't believe that game was indicative of their team. I guess they are saying Scooby will be ready around the ucla game
 
clowncar said:
It's more a fade of Wyoming laying DD than anything else, Dollaz. ODU hit Bell late repeatedly in that game.
Click to expand...

They did. Young team and probably were instructed to hit the running qB. They just went overboard with it. One of the calls was BS, but they def hit him last a couple times.
 
What do you make that LSU game?

i really wanted Harris to get one under his belt before a SEC roadie
 
clowncar said:
9/6/15

LSU -2
SMU -1.5
Wake Forest 5.5
Umass 14.5
Minnesota -5.5
NotreDame -8.5
Eastern Michigan 12.5
Arizona -11
Stanford -17
Marshall -6
Nebraska -26
SJSU 7.5
Click to expand...

On Most with U VK, I'll take a close look on the others and see if we cant both have a Big wk
GL
 
ADD

Utah -12

I think this is the woodshed year for Utah vs. Utah State.

I just don't think that Utah State has it together offensively to compete in this game this year. They did not score an offensive TD against Southern Utah and were trailing 9-5 (Odd score the result of blocked extra pt returned for two pts for Aggies) with Southern Utah in Aggie territory with about five minutes to go with a chance to salt it away. They had a false start and a delay of game and had to punt and the Aggies returned roughly 90 yards for the game winning TD. Want a great game stat? The two teams were a combined 2 of 34 on third down conversions.

Utah is coming off the emotional win against Michigan which could be a concern normally for a game like this but not with how competitive Utah State has been in the series lately. Keeton was 31 of 40 for 314 yards and rushed for another 85 in the game two years ago but he is an absolute shell of his former self. He just isn't the same dynamic player. Utah State still showed up on defense and they will be good again on defense but I think that Michigan defense is pretty darn good and was a much better primer for this game than Southern Utah. Utah State is going to be a little smaller and a little slower than what Michigan brought to the table. Utah State always makes the primary function to stop the running game and I think if they do that again in this game that they can somewhat contain D Booker but not without an expense at the back end. At Fresno State on deck and this is a rivalry so assuming no hangover from last week's big win and Utah finds a way to pull away in this game. Tough to lay this many against a defense like Utah State....
 
cubsker said:
why wku?
Click to expand...

While there is a lot to dislike (such as last year's boxscore and LAtech having the superior defense), I just like the spot for Western Kentucky. Offense coming off a very unproductive game where they caught their stride late, revenge, at home on a weeknight, better QB in the fourth when the game is on the line though I would trust Latech's defense more. If WKU defense has actually come around, it is only a matter of time for the offense to produce points. I think Doughty threw four picks in this game last year and between that and last week's game, I just think WKU puts up a number in this one. I could make a statistical case for the bulldogs and after last years affair a match up case for them too. This play is about something else for me. PR makes it -0.5 so by PR alone it would be value on Latech.
 
Nebraska minus the pts --

As the crappy sportsbook I was in could not get me the Illinois Kent State game on the tv, I was forced into watching the less compelling BYU-Nebraska game. I came away from that game with a little more respect for T Armstrong than when the game started. 24/41 for 319 a couple TD's and a pick and perhaps more impressive was that he led them back to what should have been a win for the team. I thought he made pretty good decisions with the ball as well. I think the team needs a beatdown to get rid of those demons and S Bama is just the team to do it. The Jags are in major transition having lost a bunch of players to graduation while acquiring a bunch of UAB players. Their game against GWebb was not impressive. They did have 224 yards rushing but 141 of that came on two plays. That's 2.8 yards per carry or so for the other 29 carries so I am not going out on a limb to think Nebraska can completely shut them down in the running game. Moreover, the yardage differential for S Bama over Gwebb is basically that 90 yard run they had. They had 13 first downs in that game. Clements is not the mobile running threat that Hill gave Nebraska last game (prior to injury) and I noticed that the BYU receivers could not get open against the Nebraska secondary. They made plays with their height and ability to go up and make plays and they occasionally got open when given extra time ... and of course they can catch the hail mary ... but overall, I thought the Nebraska secondary did well for a team that gave up that kind of yardage through the air (even excluding the hail mary) ... in other words, I don't think sbama offers the same jump ball problems that players like Mattews present. And you have a huge dropoff in offensive line from BYU to Sbama The DL for Nebraska is not only going to find it easier to get after the QB but they have a good idea of where he will be standing when they get there. Nebraska is going to score at will and after the hail mary conversion not only will the team be angry but I think they will hear about "finishing" all week long. Nebraska can run on them, Nebraska can pass on them and I don't see in my capping that Sbama is at a level they can do that right now .. in fact, I will say they get less than 300 yards against the corn in this game.
 
i am sure the LSU guys will chime in but I have this power rated at LSU -11.5 on a neutral field. At -2, I am forced into this bet regardless of feelings on the subject. But, having watched Miss St, I am that much more confident that LSU can have success stopping their offense and wearing their defense down. USM played about dead even with Miss St and that shouldn't be a challenge for them. I could make an argument that I should drop Miss St quite a bit for that performance given the number of unknowns with their team. Prescott is a good QB but their offensive line is about to get dominated and their defensive line will eventually wear out. Always helps to have officials help too and there is no recovery from a loss to miss state in this game. It would all but guarantee at least two SEC losses as they have Auburn, Bama, Florida, Arkansas, Ole Miss and TAMU all left on the schedule .. if they are bad enough to lose to this version of Miss St then they are dropping at least one of those ... thus ... this is a playoff elimination game for LSU in my opinion and I don't envision them choking here. Obviously Miss St has a chance to fix what they are doing wrong but LSU also has the opportunity to exploit the weaknesses they see in film from week 1. Would have liked for LSU QB and team in general to have gotten a game in the books already but how much work does the QB really need to turn around and hand it off? This is my favorite side week two so far.
 
SMU -1.5

I could be over-reacting but it looks like SMU has some things in place to be a lot more competitive this year. They should have gained confidence against Baylor as they played decently against the suspended version of the Baylor defense in the first half. They probably could have been in a position where a few lucky plays in the fourth would give them an outside chance at pulling off a miracle but they played a little too fast in the first half and they were gassed by mid-third qtr and their lack of depth vs Baylor depth made it get ugly. The QB is going to present problems for a lot of defenses. UNT has major defensive issues and you are now asking that UNT offense to match scores with SMU (I cannot believe I just typed that). This is the most winnable game on the SMU schedule vs. FBS competition. The team needs to keep building positive momentum. Some concern here with last years game and how that played out but that was a different version of the mustangs. I mentioned not liking the fact LSU is coming into their game without a game played, but I do like the fact that SMU played an elite squad while UNT sat at home. The size and speed difference between defending Baylor is going to make it seem easier to SMU facing UNT. And so will the scheme difference. Big edge at QB with McNulty being one of the lesser QB's in the nation. Did McCarney underachieve with this squad or do they just lack the horses (pun intended)? I have to give this a go because if SMU has become a very below average team compared to the SMU we saw the last couple of years, then you have to strike while you can.
 
Gar did Stanford for me. Basically, FIU somewhat dominated UCF in their own house and now UCF has coast to coast travel to play an angry Stanford club. Sorry, this is going to get very ugly. This isn't your big brothers UCF. They are not a reload team. Not going to go much further with a writeup as it basically boils down to me thinking UCF is a bad football team.
 
Pretty much agree on neb. They may not be able to run though. OL is so bad and RB aren't great. May help them cover if they have to pass.
 
clowncar said:
Nebraska minus the pts --

As the crappy sportsbook I was in could not get me the Illinois Kent State game on the tv, I was forced into watching the less compelling BYU-Nebraska game. I came away from that game with a little more respect for T Armstrong than when the game started. 24/41 for 319 a couple TD's and a pick and perhaps more impressive was that he led them back to what should have been a win for the team. I thought he made pretty good decisions with the ball as well. I think the team needs a beatdown to get rid of those demons and S Bama is just the team to do it. The Jags are in major transition having lost a bunch of players to graduation while acquiring a bunch of UAB players. Their game against GWebb was not impressive. They did have 224 yards rushing but 141 of that came on two plays. That's 2.8 yards per carry or so for the other 29 carries so I am not going out on a limb to think Nebraska can completely shut them down in the running game. Moreover, the yardage differential for S Bama over Gwebb is basically that 90 yard run they had. They had 13 first downs in that game. Clements is not the mobile running threat that Hill gave Nebraska last game (prior to injury) and I noticed that the BYU receivers could not get open against the Nebraska secondary. They made plays with their height and ability to go up and make plays and they occasionally got open when given extra time ... and of course they can catch the hail mary ... but overall, I thought the Nebraska secondary did well for a team that gave up that kind of yardage through the air (even excluding the hail mary) ... in other words, I don't think sbama offers the same jump ball problems that players like Mattews present. And you have a huge dropoff in offensive line from BYU to Sbama The DL for Nebraska is not only going to find it easier to get after the QB but they have a good idea of where he will be standing when they get there. Nebraska is going to score at will and after the hail mary conversion not only will the team be angry but I think they will hear about "finishing" all week long. Nebraska can run on them, Nebraska can pass on them and I don't see in my capping that Sbama is at a level they can do that right now .. in fact, I will say they get less than 300 yards against the corn in this game.
Click to expand...

thanks, good info here, i'm in.
 
Interesting to see no lines up at the M yet. Who opened first in Vegas yesterday? I took the day off literally after the We Are Marshall game started
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Interesting to see no lines up at the M yet. Who opened first in Vegas yesterday? I took the day off literally after the We Are Marshall game started
Click to expand...


I actually don't know who opened first in Las Vegas, Rex. Normally I would know that but since BOL and Betcris released so early compared to last year I paid less attention. Of course it was Wynn all last year but they would then just copy Betcris as soon as that came out.
 
i thought M beat Wynn to the punch several times last year; I charted the M lines more than the Wynn for sure. CRIS's opinion in Week 1 was much more in line with 2013 philosophy than last season, which is a welcome thing for all bettors and for the astute bookmakers. Seems Mickey is waging war on all of the perhead bozos copying his line and punishing them (see the Bama/Whiskey line in which every bookmaker in the world was covered in Bama at 13 or more and he goes to i think 10 on Saturday morning at one point).
 
ADD

Army/Uconn Over 48
Houston/Ville over 53.5
Wake Forest/Cuse over 43.5
Iowa/ISU under 54
wmich/gasouthern over 56
Florida -20
Memphis/Kansas over 56
UNT/SMU over 56
Rice/Texas over 50.5
 
clowncar said:
i am sure the LSU guys will chime in but I have this power rated at LSU -11.5 on a neutral field. At -2, I am forced into this bet regardless of feelings on the subject. But, having watched Miss St, I am that much more confident that LSU can have success stopping their offense and wearing their defense down. USM played about dead even with Miss St and that shouldn't be a challenge for them. I could make an argument that I should drop Miss St quite a bit for that performance given the number of unknowns with their team. Prescott is a good QB but their offensive line is about to get dominated and their defensive line will eventually wear out. Always helps to have officials help too and there is no recovery from a loss to miss state in this game. It would all but guarantee at least two SEC losses as they have Auburn, Bama, Florida, Arkansas, Ole Miss and TAMU all left on the schedule .. if they are bad enough to lose to this version of Miss St then they are dropping at least one of those ... thus ... this is a playoff elimination game for LSU in my opinion and I don't envision them choking here. Obviously Miss St has a chance to fix what they are doing wrong but LSU also has the opportunity to exploit the weaknesses they see in film from week 1. Would have liked for LSU QB and team in general to have gotten a game in the books already but how much work does the QB really need to turn around and hand it off? This is my favorite side week two so far.
Click to expand...

could also say it is nice that Messy has no tape to watch on LSU now.....
 
CollegeKingRex said:
i thought M beat Wynn to the punch several times last year; I charted the M lines more than the Wynn for sure. CRIS's opinion in Week 1 was much more in line with 2013 philosophy than last season, which is a welcome thing for all bettors and for the astute bookmakers. Seems Mickey is waging war on all of the perhead bozos copying his line and punishing them (see the Bama/Whiskey line in which every bookmaker in the world was covered in Bama at 13 or more and he goes to i think 10 on Saturday morning at one point).
Click to expand...

Being first to open served no real purpose for us last year...if we got the press like Wynn always did, it would be worth the trouble, but we didn't, and just got beat up by sharp guys and chasers instead. They only bet the mistakes and never the ones we got right. As much as I loved going up early as I got to be a part of the process, it just didn't make much sense to keep doing it when no media was willing to acknowledge us.
 
I'm not sure OSU can field a team of substitutes on offense not capable of scoring on most defenses. Which means, yes, any line is coverable.
 
Thought I would add a play as two of my favorite guys from the other side of the counter discuss the inner-workings of linesmaking.

I have quite a few reasons that I like TOSU in week two but I will put it simply that I like TOSU in the big favorite role because this is a team that is going to try to score when they get the "backup" (who would start at 124 schools) is in there in the fourth and the game is out of hand. Hawaii struggled mightily on offense against Colorado, Wittek was forcing throws, and they benefited from some inept play by Colorado. There are big plays available against them all over the field and there are too many big play players for TOSU for Hawaii to contain them all. Urb covers, the TOSU program covers (this is how you get alumni donations btw .. by covering a lot). This team is just loaded with talent all over the field at every position. I think it is the best team on paper that I can remember when compared to the nearest competition in a season. That doesn't mean they will go undefeated and win it all but it does mean they should stomp a horrible Hawaii team traveling a billion time zones off an unexpected win where they benefited form the normal island officiating. Meanwhile, TOSU will have some suspended studs back for this one and will be in front of their home fans for the first time since the Championship. I will take my chances that they blow their doors off and won't be surprised if they blank Hawaii.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
I'm not sure OSU can field a team of substitutes on offense not capable of scoring on most defenses. Which means, yes, any line is coverable.
Click to expand...


That is actually one of my angles. It looks like Urban is going to let Barrett score the garbage pts when the game is in hand and that is really bad news for exhausted opponents late ....
 
I think most of you come in here for discussion and not to tail but for anyone tailing ... I am souring a bit on WKU. Not saying that I don't keep it but the more you dig into this game the worse it starts looking for the Toppers. I adore the situation of the game but there are some major match up concerns.
 
This is probably a stupid Addition because it looks like it is motoring down to 3 and I shouldnt have to lay all this juice to get it. Someone more patient might be able to get better but I want this at 3 to play it and I want to play it.

ADD
IOWA -3 -122
 
lindetrain said:
Being first to open served no real purpose for us last year...if we got the press like Wynn always did, it would be worth the trouble, but we didn't, and just got beat up by sharp guys and chasers instead. They only bet the mistakes and never the ones we got right. As much as I loved going up early as I got to be a part of the process, it just didn't make much sense to keep doing it when no media was willing to acknowledge us.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the response, Matty. Very fair and can't fault you for that. Tough spot to be in with one place that welcomes sharp action and the rest of the places part of the company out there basically shuns it. Been a part of it at multiple places before and it's not too fun.

:shake:
 
lindetrain said:
Being first to open served no real purpose for us last year...if we got the press like Wynn always did, it would be worth the trouble, but we didn't, and just got beat up by sharp guys and chasers instead. They only bet the mistakes and never the ones we got right. As much as I loved going up early as I got to be a part of the process, it just didn't make much sense to keep doing it when no media was willing to acknowledge us.
Click to expand...

To all the CTG crowd, here's a tip on how to get under the skin of your man - Bet the mistakes and pass on the ones "we" get right.

Nothing is more frustrating. Nothing. Especially, as linde says, when there's no reward for the labor.
 
sorry for the hijack, Kyle. I know people will look at this thread and it's my fault for asking about it to begin with. Hope it was helpful to you (if not others), at least :shake:
 
It's not a hijack, it's a service to everyone reading.

The thing is ... the sharps make mistakes too. No one can make a batch of numbers and not have mistakes. No one. I don't care who you are, or what group you are. The problem for the books with sharps is that MOST of the sharps are going to nail the mistakes but each individual sharp is only going to bet his mistakes. The others are not following. IMO the smart bookmaker looks at the early sharp bets as a service rather than annoyance, other than the one book which is putting out their stuff first. I have found more problems with betting slow movers than betting early with books. You guys seem to get more annoyed with people when they bet your rogue number than when they bet a bad market number.
 
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