CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Will explain any games not here for those who ask. Will chop these up into "big bet, medium, or small".
Here's what I'm rollin with for Thursday night.
Trying Ball State laying the number in the opener. Last season in Pissalanti, they were thoroughly dominated but somehow rallied from 18 down to steal one in the waning moments. Hard to forget that 350-68 edge in yardage for the Eagles at the break, but they could not finish off the pesky Cards. The optimist in me sees Lynch back under center, with talented true Nate Davis as a healthy backup... a lineup with 18 starters back from a team that beat both MAC Championship game contenders... and a home game under the lights that should draw in excess of 20,000. Gonna take a stab at the Cards in this spot - though I would be remiss if I didn't mention a troublesome matchup - the Cardinal corners vs. Eric Deslauriers. If they bottle him up, the first-year Eastern QB will have trouble.
Prediction: Ball State 23, Eastern 14
The play: Ball State -4.5 for a small bet
I made Northwestern 6.5; it's was basically '3' everywhere when the market truly opened, now it's been pushed to '4'. Tough to lay points on the road with a new QB (Basanez was really a special talent) and the youngest HC in football. Good news is that Fitzy seems to know his shit and the players get along with him. It should be an emotional night, as Walker scheduled this game years back as a favor to Miami, where he used to coach in the 90s. One cannot discount the importance of Walker, and even though I think Sutton has his way in his return to his home state, I won't lay more than a field goal in this one. Pass for now.
I'm not a big Kent State fan like the rest of the so-called world (Steele and his followers haha) are... But I really dislike Minnesota this season. They lost the world, and especially at RB, they unbelieveably thin. Cupito is a decent quarterback but Kent's pass defense was one of the better ones in the MAC last season. They were really soft against the run and if this were Maroney and Marion Barber (or even Russell) then the Gophers would pile on chunks of yards and run Kent right out of Dix Stadium. I'm waiting on one thing: the QB decision for Martin. Will he go with that turd Machen, or the Juco-transfer Julian Edelman. My MAC guys are telling me that Edelman is a toned-down version of Joshua Cribbs, who was scary good. He threw for 1,312 yards and 14 TD's and ran for 1,253 yards and 17 TD's last year. Machen is an interception machine, will not advocate this play if he's named the starter. If Martin gives his team a chance to win with Edelman, I will back Kent and do it with a big bet, because I made the game 9.5. If I can take 16, I feel compelled to think Kent can hang in there and keep it between 8-15 points. Kent will be super-hyped, as this is Mason's return to campus and the first Big 10 team to ever visit Dix. More on this play when the QB is named.
Iowa State is a play for the same reasons given by some of our great handicappers earlier (Big Al, where ya at bro?) ... I made the 'Clones a 9.5 fave and Toledo's recent history in these spots points to an unmitigated disaster. 44-14 loser at Fresno last year; 63-21 loser at Minny, 63-14 loser at Kansas in 2004; 28-18 loser at Vegas and 34-7 loser at 'Cuse in '03.... In fact, the last seven non-con road games dating back to 2002 were all losing, and non-covering. The previous five of those (I listed above) were all with Gradkowski running the show; now they lose the three-year starter who broke school records for completions and passing yards. Iowa State returns Meyer, an electric QB, and like Al said, enough else to be competitive in the Big 12 North. Hammer this one.
Prediction: Iowa State 37, Toledo 17
The play: Iowa State -7.5 for a big bet
South Carolina seems to be getting a lot of attention but I'm not sure why. They have to travel to Starkville the week before the big Jorja game, and they're banged up in all the wrong places, particularly at receiver. SC is 2-7-1 in their last 11 season openers and 5-10 against the SEC West (ATS) since 2001. The 'dog' is 8-3 in this series and I expect a lot of cow bells on opening night, as the 'Dawgs use some of that momentum they built by hammering Ole Piss in the season finale last year and taking the Cocks to the gun. They might not win it but they sure don't need to be catching a touchdown at home. I made the game 2.5.
Prediction: South Carolina 16, Messy State 13
The play: Messy State plus 7 for a small bet. If it goes up to 7.5 at some point, I will make it a medium bet on value alone.
Missed the boat on Diego State. Would like to lay one there at most; I made them a 4.5 fave. I like the situation Long has stepped into, and there IS some talent there. Will go more into this game Tues or Weds...
GL everyone, let's start out strong this weekend...
:shake:
Here's what I'm rollin with for Thursday night.
Trying Ball State laying the number in the opener. Last season in Pissalanti, they were thoroughly dominated but somehow rallied from 18 down to steal one in the waning moments. Hard to forget that 350-68 edge in yardage for the Eagles at the break, but they could not finish off the pesky Cards. The optimist in me sees Lynch back under center, with talented true Nate Davis as a healthy backup... a lineup with 18 starters back from a team that beat both MAC Championship game contenders... and a home game under the lights that should draw in excess of 20,000. Gonna take a stab at the Cards in this spot - though I would be remiss if I didn't mention a troublesome matchup - the Cardinal corners vs. Eric Deslauriers. If they bottle him up, the first-year Eastern QB will have trouble.
Prediction: Ball State 23, Eastern 14
The play: Ball State -4.5 for a small bet
I made Northwestern 6.5; it's was basically '3' everywhere when the market truly opened, now it's been pushed to '4'. Tough to lay points on the road with a new QB (Basanez was really a special talent) and the youngest HC in football. Good news is that Fitzy seems to know his shit and the players get along with him. It should be an emotional night, as Walker scheduled this game years back as a favor to Miami, where he used to coach in the 90s. One cannot discount the importance of Walker, and even though I think Sutton has his way in his return to his home state, I won't lay more than a field goal in this one. Pass for now.
I'm not a big Kent State fan like the rest of the so-called world (Steele and his followers haha) are... But I really dislike Minnesota this season. They lost the world, and especially at RB, they unbelieveably thin. Cupito is a decent quarterback but Kent's pass defense was one of the better ones in the MAC last season. They were really soft against the run and if this were Maroney and Marion Barber (or even Russell) then the Gophers would pile on chunks of yards and run Kent right out of Dix Stadium. I'm waiting on one thing: the QB decision for Martin. Will he go with that turd Machen, or the Juco-transfer Julian Edelman. My MAC guys are telling me that Edelman is a toned-down version of Joshua Cribbs, who was scary good. He threw for 1,312 yards and 14 TD's and ran for 1,253 yards and 17 TD's last year. Machen is an interception machine, will not advocate this play if he's named the starter. If Martin gives his team a chance to win with Edelman, I will back Kent and do it with a big bet, because I made the game 9.5. If I can take 16, I feel compelled to think Kent can hang in there and keep it between 8-15 points. Kent will be super-hyped, as this is Mason's return to campus and the first Big 10 team to ever visit Dix. More on this play when the QB is named.
Iowa State is a play for the same reasons given by some of our great handicappers earlier (Big Al, where ya at bro?) ... I made the 'Clones a 9.5 fave and Toledo's recent history in these spots points to an unmitigated disaster. 44-14 loser at Fresno last year; 63-21 loser at Minny, 63-14 loser at Kansas in 2004; 28-18 loser at Vegas and 34-7 loser at 'Cuse in '03.... In fact, the last seven non-con road games dating back to 2002 were all losing, and non-covering. The previous five of those (I listed above) were all with Gradkowski running the show; now they lose the three-year starter who broke school records for completions and passing yards. Iowa State returns Meyer, an electric QB, and like Al said, enough else to be competitive in the Big 12 North. Hammer this one.
Prediction: Iowa State 37, Toledo 17
The play: Iowa State -7.5 for a big bet
South Carolina seems to be getting a lot of attention but I'm not sure why. They have to travel to Starkville the week before the big Jorja game, and they're banged up in all the wrong places, particularly at receiver. SC is 2-7-1 in their last 11 season openers and 5-10 against the SEC West (ATS) since 2001. The 'dog' is 8-3 in this series and I expect a lot of cow bells on opening night, as the 'Dawgs use some of that momentum they built by hammering Ole Piss in the season finale last year and taking the Cocks to the gun. They might not win it but they sure don't need to be catching a touchdown at home. I made the game 2.5.
Prediction: South Carolina 16, Messy State 13
The play: Messy State plus 7 for a small bet. If it goes up to 7.5 at some point, I will make it a medium bet on value alone.
Missed the boat on Diego State. Would like to lay one there at most; I made them a 4.5 fave. I like the situation Long has stepped into, and there IS some talent there. Will go more into this game Tues or Weds...
GL everyone, let's start out strong this weekend...
:shake:
