Thursday TNT 01/03/13 NBA discussion thread

[divol]

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<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px;">[TR="class: linesHeader"]
[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - THU 1/3[/h][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesColumns"]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Thu 1/3[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]501[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]San Antonio Spurs[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+1 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 206.5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]502[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]New York Knicks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-1 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 206.5 1.909[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Thu 1/3[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]503[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Minnesota Timberwolves[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+6.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 205 1.962[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]06:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]504[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Denver Nuggets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-6.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 205 1.943[/TD]
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</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[divol]

Wanted to play the Spurs, but with this line, I'm actually thinking about taking the Knicks...

Denver should really roll here. Minny without Rubio, playing B2B, Denver finally got some rest...

 

[raems]

Developmentally, the Knicks and spurs are in very different places right now. Spurs should win by dd.

 

[nbafan88]

Spurs are playing 4th in 5 nights. Knicks coming off a fairly embarrassing performance. It really comes down to the performance of Jason Kidd.


Same old thing with the nuggets. Don't think the same intensity will be there vs Minnesota

 

[tuck321]

[h=1]Schmeelk: The Knicks aren't defending in first halves.[/h]

By Seth on Jan 2, 2:49p 68

Second half defense. - USA TODAY Sports

New York is a good second half defensive team and a very, very bad first half defensive team.
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I spent most of the morning and early afternoon toodlin' around Synergy and the NBA stats site looking for holes in the Knicks' defense (and there are many), but above any individual weaknesses or susceptibility to certain play types, there is a team-wide issue of uneven production throughout the game on that end. New York is an awful defensive team in first halves and a very good defensive team after Mike Woodson (I presume) terrifies them at halftime. John Schmeelk:

In first halves this year, the Knicks are the 28th-worst defensive team in the league if you go by points per 100 possessions. In the second half, their defense improves to 8th-best in the league. If you dig deeper, the Knicks are the No. 3 defensive team in the entire NBA in the fourth quarter. I somehow doubt Woodson’s defensive schemes change in the fourth quarter. The only explanation is that the Knicks are playing harder. Of course, the implication is that for the other three quarters, the team isn’t putting the effort necessary in on defense.
​

Some details pulled from the NBA stats site:
- New York allows 47.1% shooting on 41.7 field goal attempts per first half and 44% shooting on 37.5 field goal attempts per second half. Opponent three-point shooting drops from 38.2% to 36% in second halves on one more attempt.
- Defensive rebound percentage jumps from 72.5% in first halves to 76.5% in second halves.
- Opponent turnover rate jumps from 15.3% in first halves to 17.9% in second halves.
- The specific defensive rating numbers by quarter: 105.7, 107.6, 103.0, 95.1. They're suddenly elite in fourth quarters, like Schmeelk said.
- Probably related: Pace tends to be a couple possessions slower in second halves and particularly slow in fourth quarters. (Pace by quarter: 95.2, 93.9, 94.8, 90.6).
- A few individual first half/second half defensive rating splits:
Tyson Chandler: 107.6/101.7
Carmelo Anthony: 104.6/99.9
Jason Kidd: 112.6/99.0
J.R. Smith: 106.0/98.0
It's a thing. Defense is limiting shots and limiting accuracy on those shots, right? By turning teams over, contesting well, and cleaning up defensive rebounds, the Knicks are doing those two things in second halves. They are not doing those things in first halves. My call for pre-game halftime speeches stands.


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68 Comments

 

[tuck321]

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<tbody>
[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 12%"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 25%"]Opponent[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 8%, align: center"]Score[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 8%, align: center"]SU[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 8%, align: center"]Line[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 8%, align: center"]ATS[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 10%, align: center"]O/U[/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 12%, align: left"]11/15/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 25%"]vs. Miami[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]93-98[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]L [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]-3.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]L [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]U 202.5 [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN1, width: 12%, align: left"]03/15/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 25%"]vs. Oklahoma City[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]90-103[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]L [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]+1.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]L [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 10%, align: center"]U 213.5 [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 12%, align: left"]02/23/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 25%"]vs. San Antonio[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]99-114[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]L [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]+3.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]L [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]O 203.5 [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN1, width: 12%, align: left"]02/09/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 25%"]vs. Golden State[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]101-109[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]L [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]-6 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]L [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 10%, align: center"]U 211.5
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Denver at home on Thursday

Knicks at home on Thursday

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[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 12%"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 25%"]Opponent[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 8%, align: center"]Score[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 8%, align: center"]SU[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 8%, align: center"]Line[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 8%, align: center"]ATS[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1c, width: 10%, align: center"]O/U[/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 12%, align: left"]12/13/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 25%"]vs. LA Lakers[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]116-107[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]W [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]-5.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]W [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]O 206 [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN1, width: 12%, align: left"]02/02/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 25%"]vs. Chicago[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]102-105[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]L [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]+3.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]W [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 10%, align: center"]O 190 [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 12%, align: left"]03/17/2011[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 25%"]vs. Memphis[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]120-99[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]W [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]-4 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]W [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]O 214.5 [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN1, width: 12%, align: left"]01/27/2011[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 25%"]vs. Miami[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]93-88[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]W [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]+3.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]W [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 10%, align: center"]U 212.5 [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 12%, align: left"]01/28/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 25%"]vs. Toronto[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]104-106[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]L [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]-3.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 8%, align: center"]L [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]U 217 [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN1, width: 12%, align: left"]01/07/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 25%"]vs. Charlotte[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]97-93[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]W [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]-4 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 8%, align: center"]P [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN1, width: 10%, align: center"]U 199.5 [/TD]

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[tuck321]

Spurs are playing in worst 5 in 7.
Days of the week say no but Love is really playing bad. This line is hard to understand.

 

[nbafan88]

Amar'e: 'I've never been taught defense'

By Jared Zwerling | Jan 2, 2013 3:46 PM
GREENBURGH, N.Y. -- Mike Woodson has repeatedly said he's not worried about Amar'e Stoudemire finding his offense after returning from a left knee injury. Woodson is more concerned about Stoudemire's defensive game -- and Stoudemire knows that's where he needs the most improvement.


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In fact, STAT admitted after Wednesday's practice that defense was something he had never really learned -- until now with Woodson as his head coach. While Woody was an assistant coach in New York for most of last season, Stoudemire had mostly played under Mike D'Antoni's offensive game plan during his career.


"I think just having a defensive coach for the first time in my career is going to help," he said. "I've never been taught defense in my whole career, so to now have a coach that actually teaches defense and teaches strategies, and knows positioning and posture, how to guard different plays, it's going to be helpful. I'm going to take it as a challenge, and I'm going to accept the challenge and try to improve as a player."


In Stoudemire's season debut against the Trail Blazers on Tuesday night, he was clearly confused on defense. Guarding pick-and-rolls, he sunk too low, leaving LaMarcus Aldridge wide open for jump shots, and he lost sight of J.J. Hickson and allowed a couple of easy finishes.


During practice, Woodson went over a lot of half-court defense. While he explained rotations, he stressed effort and communication -- two factors that many Knicks have pointed to during their recent slide. Afterward, Stoudemire worked with assistants Herb Williams and LaSalle Thompson on defensive positioning while guarding pick-and-rolls. Both of them were showing STAT how to maintain a strong defensive stance, and to keep his hands high and active.


Woodson discussed the importance of practice time to get back to where they were on D. From Nov. 2 to Dec. 16, the Knicks were holding opponents to 96.1 points per game, ninth best in the league. But from Dec. 17 to now, as they've gone 3-5, that number shot up to 100.5.


"Early on, we were committed and early on we were practicing and getting after each other a little bit," Woodson said. "We've got to teach and get guys committed the best way possible."


Reflecting on his first practice after his first game, Stoudemire said he felt "great."


"I feel loose, I feel fit and feel ready to play," he said. "It's a great sign after my first game to feel as good as I do now. My second half [against Portland] was better than my first half and hopefully tomorrow's game will be better than the first game, and that process continues."


Stoudemire said he was "a little bit hesitant on certain moves," so he spent post-practice working on shot repetitions to get more comfortable on the court. While he's confident he'll regain his rhythm soon, for now he expects to remain around 17 minutes per game, which is how much he played Tuesday night.


"They're still taking precautionary measures," he said. "The longevity is to be there for the second half of the season and going into the postseason. ... It's up to the training staff to determine my minutes."


Overall, Stoudemire said if the Knicks continue to build on their early success, he'll remain in the second unit.


"I've done it before," he said. "I expect myself to really get back in top shape and reach where I was before. But depending on how we're playing, if we're playing well and have no problems, I'll come off the bench."


You can follow Jared Zwerling on Twitter.

 

[nbafan88]

Mike Dantoni.....

 

[raems]

Mike Dantoni.....

Alright, it's fine for you to knock him as much as you want, and I'm not a huge fan of his myself, but you have to at least know the facts.

During his time in Phoenix, the Suns ranked 15th-ish in points allowed per possession. That was with Amare and Diaw in the middle and Nash at the point of attack, all of whom are either below average or terrible. To be average defensively with that personnel is actually a fairly decent accomplishment that didn't get noticed because analytics weren't popular yet at the time, and people didn't realize that the pace those teams played at simply ensured that the opponent would score a superficially high amount of points.

When D'antoni left the Knicks last year, they were 8th in the NBA in points allowed per possession, thanks to Chandler and Shumpert, along with D'antoni's willingness to hire Woodson as a defensive assistant. This year, the Knicks rank 20th in defensive efficiency, since they don't have a guard who can stop dribble penetration. The Lakers are playing average defense now, which is right about where they should be when you consider that Dwight Howard is merely a good player now, a far far cry from the 3rd best player in the league 2 years ago. The Lakers, like the Suns, simply don't have the horses to defend at a special clip this year.

Fan, defense in the NBA is about having players who want to play defense in the NBA. The very best coaching can account for a 3-5 spot jump in efficiency rankings, and even that is a stretch. Could D'antoni coach a little more defense? Sure, but it wouldn't account for a lot better performance from the marginal defenders he's had on the floor during his coaching career. It's also really convenient for you to knock D'antoni instead of Amare, Amare hasn't made any effort to learn how to play defense in a 10 year career, which in my opinion is a much worse act than a coach successfuly coaching a team to 55+ wins for many years in a row with Amare in tow.

 

[raems]

Marion spent an entire finals erasing Lebron James, this isn't about d'antoni. It's about a player's interest in learning things himself.

 

[nbafan88]

You're acting like I'm the only one who knocks him. If coaches spend 90% of practice on offense and 10% on defense, what do you expect the players to do? I think coaching in the NBA is by far the most important to a teams success compared to the other leagues. D'antoni doesn't care about the defensive end and I don't know how you can think that doesn't trickle down to the players he's coaching.

 

[nbafan88]

Marion spent an entire finals erasing Lebron James, this isn't about d'antoni. It's about a player's interest in learning things himself.

Hah if Marion didnt know how to play defense he wouldn't have a job. Nobody wants him for his offense. That's for sure

 

[Lexington 125]

Wolves/Nuggets over kind of appealing to me. Love shot horribly last meeting , Minny shot 2-13 from 3 and still got to 108 with the aid of 37 ft attempts lol. Total is sitting at 205... I don't even think there was a Minny road total that got over that number yet this season. Total is high for a reason i think, still tough to pull the trigger when Minny is prone to low scoring 2ndh meltdowns.... looking at their scoring it's cray how much more productive they are 1sth, so 1sth over could be the play. I just don't like playing many 1sth overs, would much rather get a feel for pace of game and jump in 2ndh.

 

[raems]

I'm just saying that when it comes to d'antoni, the actual facts don't come remotely close to what the narrative is. His teams actually perform relatively well considering the personnel they've had over the years. Is his system one that prioritized offense? Sure it is. But it's also the same system that the entire league has now copied and uses, everywhere from Miami to San Antonio to New York.

The guy's shortcomings aren't the system, it's his total inability to adjust in game. THAT'S the problem, he regularly gets outcoached after the half.

 

[divol]

The problem is that Minny have yet to get a single Over result with totals 200+.
They are 0 - 4 in favor of the Under with such totals...

 

[Lexington 125]

that's what I'm getting at....all the numbers point to the under, yet the line still comes out 205. Seems to me that a fast pace is expected.

 

[divol]

Spurs are 5 - 1 in favor of the Over, playing second leg of B2B on the road.

 

[divol]

that's what I'm getting at....all the numbers point to the under, yet the line still comes out 205. Seems to me that a fast pace is expected.

I would have played Under here or nothing to be honest (I'm not touching the total here).
Miller doesn't run the point the way Lawson does. Love is in terrible shootign slump and I can easily see Minny coming up a bit flat tonight. Denver no doubt will be trying to run, but not sure it will be enough to carry Minny to 90 points here. Even if Minny do get to 90 points, Denver will still have to score 110+ points for you to get a shot at the Over.
I'm thinking of taking Denver here actually, but no doubt in my mind, that if you want the Over, Denver TT Over makes much more sense...

Good luck!

 

[Lexington 125]

same to you....I think waiting and looking to play the Nuggets 2ndh could be an option as well given the Wolves history in the 2ndh of roadies.

 

[divol]

No doubt that Minny starts strong and fades away. As I wrote yesterday, Wolves have lost only one first quarter on the road (ATS wise) the entire season!

 

[nbafan88]

camby starting for the knicks

 

[nbafan88]

Btw these games are not on national television tonight