Thursday NBA

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Sides/Totals 13-8 +18.35u
1st Q: +1.72u
1st H: +1.57
2nd H -9.45
Team Totals : -4.54u


Real thin card so I will be spending more time getting exotic as well as on College baskets.

Detriot @ New Orleans

Well I feel like everyone makes way to big of a deal that Billups is out. The guy is a great player but I dont think he is a gamechanger like Kobe , LeBron , Wade and those types. He is replaceable for a short period. They didnt win the games when he played recently and they didnt lose vs Pho cause he sat(thanks Rasheed's shot selection). The line looks high but NO has not fared well against quality teams. This team was just 17.5 in Dallas!! I had this game @ -7.5 so it really doesnt have value either way. Hopefully I sit this out to half and its remotely close where I can pound DET in the 2nd H as NO has no bench...Armstrong , Brown and so on...though keep an eye out for an out of game shape Bobby Jackson to return. He will go through a pregame workout and might be available. Pistons are in need of a win and also have payback for a 1 pt loss to NO at home.

Team Totals
Over 91 -110 Pistons {4units} +4.00
Under 84 -110 Hornets {1unit} +1.00
Under 83 -108 {1unit} +1.00

Pistons -8 -103 {2units} +2.00

My biggest concern is generally DET has played poorly on 3+ days rest this season.
L 99-100 vs NO but 53%FG only 67% FT
W87-85 @ Miami but 45%FG only 64% FT
L90-101 @ Ind but 39%FG 89%FT
W87-71 @ Cle but 44%FG and 75% FT

Indiana @ Dallas:

The Mavs are the hottest team in the NBA so why fade the is what I usually say. You wonder though if you could ask for a better spot having Indy offa home loss as double digit favs. I really dont see a foundation for Indy being 9 pt dogs. A few times Indy has been better then +7 away but it was also at the end of a long trip and backend nite. Indy has generally not played well vs Dallas especially in dallas but they were only 4.5 pt dogs last meeting with similiar teams. The healthy Pacers have been 8-3 SU past 11 since they returned from the Western swingso they are playing fairly good basketball except when they get favored vs Utah and Minny at home..so while it may seem minimal I have this game @ -7.5. The Sonics played 1 real good half but fell apart in the fourth...

Over 99 -110 Dallas team {3units} +3.00
Over 90 -106 Indy team {1unit} +1.00
Over 189 -104 {3units} +3.00
Pacers +9 -107 {3units} ML +405 {1/4u} PUSH (-0.25)

Props:(+0.96)
Harrington ov 15 +106 {1unit} +1.06
O'Neal ov 20 -105{1unit} PUSH
Jackson Ov 14 -116 {1unit} -1.16
Diggler Un 24.5 +114 {2units} +2.28
Terry Ov 17 -122 {1unit} -1.22

Lakers @ Kings :

Feel somewhat disinterested here. However when you look at one thing and see SAC has the offense rolling right now and Kobe seems to be falling back to his Kobe ways its gonna be tough for LA to outscore Sac here. Especially since they really never play well in Arco. The Kings are finally getting healthy it seems and living up to expectations.

Team Total :
Over 106.5 Kings -106 {4units} +4.00& Under 107.5 -111 {2units}-2.22

Over 207.5 -110 {3units} & Under 210 -110 {3units} little nervous with so a big move and miller out

Kings -4.5 -110 {2units} Pending


Props:
Over 20 -123 Kevin Martin {1unit}-1.23
Over 18 +110 Ron Artest {1unit} +1.10



<TABLE id=tblPropFut onmouseover="changeto(event, '#F6C88F')" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#EEEEEE')" cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR id=ignore_a10><TD colSpan=3>NBA General Props: NBA Player Props - 01-04-2007











</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b10><TD width="15%">Thu 1/4</TD><TD colSpan=2>Most Points Scored : (see tie breaker rules)</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>05:00 PM</TD><TD class=MBB>1101 Dirk Nowitzki</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+217</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1102 Jermaine O'Neal</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+371</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1103 Richard Hamilton</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+257</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1104 Kevin Martin</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+297</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b11><TD width="15%">Thu 1/4</TD><TD colSpan=2>Most Assists : (see tie breaker rules)</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>05:00 PM</TD><TD class=MBB>1105 Kobe Bryant</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+272</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1106 Mike Bibby</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+249</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1107 Jamaal Tinsley</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+282</TD></TR><TR class=hiliteRow><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>1108 Jason Terry</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+329</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Kevin Martin {1unit} +297 (needs 27 to tie & 28 to win)
Jamaal Tinsley {1unit} +289 (6 assists)

BOL....be back with quarters and 1st H plays/thoughts


Might use these PROPS as hedges...U 112.5 any team -122 & under 211.5 any game -116
 
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I like the Detroit over 91.5 pts, I just picked it up at 92.

Kevin Martin looks like a good high scorer option, leaning on Hamilton although it will be a no play for me.

Good Luck Sports.
 
If Kevin Martin is healthy then I love the props. His minutes have been at 30 or below for 3 of last 4 as he's been struggling to kick the flu bug.
 
good luck tonight SN! Out of curiosity does {unit} without a number mean you haven't decided on the size of your bet yet?
 
Sorry touc,

It only means I am being lazy it just means 1 unit ...sort of A unit...BOL!

JPicks :

Was trying to rationalize that IF he wanted to be more involved in teh offense last game vs NY he could have been. It just became clear that it was gonna be the Ron Artest show , so I felt he just let the game happen. His recent play since maybe Was was concerning but LA cant really defend anyone...and I expect a ton of King pts tonite...

Thanks Supersav and MX...BOL

I think the best time to avoid Stephen Jackson is on backends and Rip Hamilton certainly is a great pick I rode him on Sunday...thinking mason and butler would have some size on him depending who guards him...
 
Excellent thread Nut.

I expect a solid Stons effort tonight sans Billups. I totally agree on a second half play if the game is relatively close at half.

Best of luck tonight.
 
Thanks phatprep , BAR , and Believe...good Luck tonite...


I dont want to jinx DET but if I had to guess in this situation the Hornets could maybe beat the Pistons here 5 of a 1000...I mean that literally... just cautious of the how they come out with long rest..
 
1st Quarters(-1.42)

New Orleans +2.5 -108 {1unit} -1.08
Pacers +3 +108 {unit} ML +2o2 {1/2u} +2.09
Over 48.5 -124 Dal {1unit} -1.24
Kings -1.5 -119 {1unit}-1.19

1st H : -2.07
Under 89 -104 Det {unit} -1.04 (Flurry of late scoring screwed me by 1 point...something like 17 pts final 3:30)
Kings -3 -103 {1unit}-1.03
 
Last edited:
New Orleans is in a world of hurt already -- I know they are a team riddled by injuries, but its no excuse for poor shot selection on practically every possession.

It's great to see Stackhouse back, but its hard to watch O"Neal school Dampier as a Mavs backer tonight. It's not like the Mavs to allow a team to shoot such a high percentage on their home court. But like others have mentioned, the Mavs sights may be set on the games ahead instead of this one
 
I guess thats what seperate good players from below avg players understanding how to play in the flow of the game...they all have talent but most just dont get the game it seems...and then sometimes you getthe guys who are so damn talented who still prosper being clueless ...

Obviously cant do much besides wish ya Luck on Dallas since I am on Indy myself. I think everything generally in life is about balance...nothing went right versus Charlotte for them and the way it seems to work is next time they get more then there share of breaks...could of an odd comment but I do believe that everything has to balance itself out...

I really dont believe Dallas is looking ahead as much playing so-so all game vs seattle then winding up with a 24 pt win during a huge win streak. Its sad to say on all of us the better we do or more we excel the more likely we are to become complacent at some point...Indy off a bad loss probably wants teh game more then a team who is just steam rolling everyone...sometimes yo have to realize u need to do more then just show up...the other spectrum is you dont want Indy to deliver that wakeup call...GL bro
 
2nd H :

Pistons +3 -112 {1u} +1.00
ML +148{1u} -1.00

Just dont see why DET would let up. I'll be more then happy to watch their bench players get some minutes
 
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Yeah , I usually stay away but if you read my earlier comments I did feel that if they played this game 1000 times maybe NO would win 5 times.....thats how big of a mismatch it is IMO...I worried most about DET coming flat after a long layoff but with 3 straight losses I shoyuld have dismissed that.....I probably made a bad call but I just want 91,92 Det pts!!

SuperSav look how badly NO was beaten at home by SA and Dallas...Det is only a notch below.....

2nd H:
Over 91 +100 Ind {1unit} +1.00
mavs -6.5 -115 {1unit} +1.00
 
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I really cant believe I will lose that DET team over when I need 33 2nd Pts after 31 and 27 quarters! Like I said its all about balance though.....when you get 1 extreme you quickly get the other to balance it out!
 
Pistons have 4 straight fast breaks and so far 1 pt and shooting 2 Fts...I wouldnt expect an team on a 3 game losing streak to play sloppy...but thats why I will lose...
 
Detroit puts up 92, pushes my 92 and covers your 91.5 if you got it.
What happened to the Pistons in the third quarter. grrrr.
I don't mind pushing though, if it' not a loss it's not a worry.
 
They just didnt do anything but play careless ball....its really sad it came down to you pushing & me bitching...missed layups and FT's like u wouldnt believe...think they had 90 pts with 3 to play....

I never saw 92 @ Pinny had it 91.5 then I waited and got 91...had a feeling tha total was dropping figured NO would never crack 80...should have buried that as well...NO has cracked 80 at home versus an elite squa yet....shorthanded I mean...

I need a O'Neal bucket in the worst way....thought I should have went +5 with Indy 1st H instead of game...
 
affinity said:
Glad you were able to at least get the push on Ind/Dal @ +9 bro:shake:
Click to expand...

Thanks kept my relatively perfect nite in tact...not counting props , 1st Q and 1st H plays..Thanks again...could have had 9.5 to...
 
Awesome work with the team totals tonight sir. I came back just before the lal-sac game started and wondered why the line had dropped. feeling awfully silly about my extra large sac 1q bet now! gl with the rest of the night
 
Thanks touc, there we alot closer then they had to be both Indy and Det were cold late in the games and Dallas we got the luck push we needed. I cant blame ya for that 1st Q bet liked it myself. I had no idea Miller was out till about 10:30 when Charles Barkely said it in pregame...I started changing my plays for the game....

Need the Kings to wakeup some....I think my Diggler Under Prop was best call so far...

GL the rest of the way...
 
sports this off topic but what do u think bout a indy and cowboys ml parlay?
 
Supersav said:
sports this off topic but what do u think bout a indy and cowboys ml parlay?
Click to expand...

Played it already also teased(liitle better then 2.1 to 1 if I recall) that as well +9 /-1 ...I think anyone who erads my NFL post will realize how much I like Dallas this Saturday
 
Since 1/1/07:

Sides/Totals : 15-8 +23.10u
1st Q: +0.30u
1st H: -0.50u
2nd H -7.45u
Team Totals : +5.46u

Pending:

Team Total :
Over 106.5 Kings -106 {4units} & Under 107.5 -111 {2units}

Over 207.5 -110 {3units} & Under 210 -110 {3units} little nervous with so a big move and miller out

Kings -4.5 -110 {2units}
 
My line was Sac -4.5 2H

Seems high at 6. Either Sac makes this a ballgame again (unlikely) or Lakers is the play here for 2H.
 
I think 6 is about right they are get down DD and were -4.5 for the game...

I think if Sac can get some of those boards with better effort on sealing LAL off they can easily make a run in this game. Sac cant rebound and LAL really cant defend...

Sort of my pissed I middled my totals......I am gonna leave teh 2nd H alone had a good nite could still possible win some more if I got realy lucky....

Sac has 13 boards and LAL has 12 offensive alone! hard to not like the over 106 again...
 
Very low posted O/U for the 2H...Gotta think if I stays low-scoring then Kings won't make a run. Just my opinion here...
 
Agreed , but really all the 2nd H totals are the game total minus the 1st half total...

Game total 209.5
1st H total 105.5
so really 104 is what it would be , opened 105.5 for obvious reasons(81pt 2nd Q) and bet to 106..

They never adjust all that mcuh hardly ever see one more then 2 pts adjusted either direction...
 
yea that indy/dallas ml pays good im just worried bout them cowboys but i read ur thinking on it
 
I can promise you one thing that line should not be -3 in Seattles favor. If Dallas covers vs Det they are -3 if they get that late TD its a PKem ....if you trust anything about me you will believe I strongly feel that is a bad number...BOL if you go with it


Any line heavily adjusted on one game is an overreaction...and people keep saying the Lions but didnt they watch them play in NE when they just almost upset the Pats @ Foxboro. The difference bewteen NE and Dallas is disclipine where NE will get its shit together late in the game and dallas thinks they are better then they are at this point. No better wakeup call then to lose as -13 pt favs...
 
FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) -- The Patriots know how to finish games. The Lions just finish themselves off.
Corey Dillon scored two of his three touchdowns in the last 8:35, Detroit turned the ball over on its last three possessions and New England avoided a stunning upset with a 28-21 victory Sunday.
<TABLE cellPadding=1 align=left border=0 vspace="5" hspace="10"><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-2]ADVERTISEMENT[/SIZE]
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b
</NOSCRIPT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Dillon gave the Patriots their first lead of the second half with his 4-yard scoring run with 2:33 left, backing up Tom Brady's belief that the Patriots nearly always have a chance to win.
"Any time there's time left on the clock, we think we can," he said. "For so much of that game we didn't play with much energy or enthusiasm."
That's not shocking, considering Detroit has the NFL's worst record over the last six years (23-69) and is 2-10 this season. It's a surprise, though, considering the Patriots (9-3) talked all week about not taking any opponent for granted.
"Embarrassing, frustrating, but a win is a win," fullback Heath Evans said.
The Lions took an 18-13 lead after Evans was tackled in the end zone for a safety when he fell on Brady's fumble. Jason Hanson's 26-yard field goal, his fourth of the game, made it 21-13 less than 2 minutes into the fourth quarter. The Patriots needed a touchdown and a 2-point conversion just to tie. Could they actually lose to a team that started the day with nine losses one week after the Patriots beat a team with nine wins in a 17-13 victory over Chicago on the same field?


Kitna had 314 vs the NE defense.....
 
No, losing to the Detroit Lions does not revoke the playoff spot the Dallas Cowboys had already clinched.
It just means they're in a mess of trouble heading into what Bill Parcells likes to call "the tournament."
Done in by repeated mistakes from Tony Romo and a few more by Terence Newman, the Cowboys blew their chance to stay alive in the NFC East race and build some much-needed momentum for the playoffs with a 39-31 loss to the lowly Lions on Sunday.
"I can't tell you how disappointed I am. I really can't," Parcells said, his tone more deflated than irate. "This is the low point for me in a long time."
Detroit would've been better off losing this game and locking up the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.
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</NOSCRIPT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>But even the Lions (3-13) couldn't refuse all the gifts the Cowboys gave them, from a penalty on Newman wiping out an interception return for a touchdown on the game's first snap to Romo failing to scramble into the end zone from the 6-yard line on the final play that mattered.
In between, Romo threw an interception and lost two fumbles, Newman muffed a punt and there were plenty more mental errors by their teammates.
"Too many things that beat you, we did today," Parcells said.
It could get worse Saturday night when the Cowboys (9-7) play a first-round game at Seattle.
Dallas goes into the playoffs on its first two-game losing streak of the season and having dropped three of four. There are plenty of reasons for it, from Romo looking more like a career backup than a Pro Bowler, to the defense being at its worst.
The Cowboys have allowed 132 points the last four games, the exact amount they gave up the previous eight games. Realizing a change may be needed, Dallas tested out a lot of different formations and player combinations; they'll have to go back to the drawing board considering Detroit scored its most points in 63 games, since the 2003 opener.
"We are definitely going in backwards from the way we wanted to," said Romo, who was 23-of-32 for 321 yards with two touchdowns. "We may not scare anyone right now. We win a game or two and that will change."
<TABLE style="PADDING-LEFT: 8px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 5px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ysptblbdr2><TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>
<SMALL>AP - Dec 31, 5:22 pm EST</SMALL>
More Photos</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Detroit's Jon Kitna was 28-of-42 for 306 yards and four touchdowns with one interception. He set the club record for completions in a season and joined Scott Mitchell as the only Lions quarterbacks to throw for 4,000 yards in a season.
Roy Williams caught the first two TDs, a great one that withstood replay and another with 2 seconds left in the first half. Mike Williams caught a 21-yarder that put Detroit ahead for good and Mike Furrey punctuated his TD by firing the football into a plastic Cowboys logo behind the end zone, knocking it off the wall and putting a crack in it.
"I didn't think the star would come down," he said. "I didn't want to do that. But all the guys enjoyed it."
The Raiders did, too. Now Oakland gets the top overall pick and the Lions will go second.
Detroit has played better than its record indicates all season, getting blown out only twice. Just last week, they had a chance to beat NFC-leading Chicago but botched the final play.
This time, Detroit made the final play, stuffing Romo's fourth-down scramble. He also was stopped on a first-down run and forced to throw incompletions on second and third downs.
"It's important for us to go into the offseason like this," defensive tackle Cory Redding said. "The way we finished, it doesn't get any better than that."
Dallas led by one several times, including Newman atoning for his mistakes with the team's first punt return for a touchdown since 2001 and Owens catching a 56-yard pass for a 31-30 advantage with 8:09 left.
That play capped a 99-yard drive that was highlighted by Romo losing the ball in his own end zone, picking it up and throwing to Owens for 17 yards. It was the kind of good luck that was Romo's hallmark when he won five of his first six starts, and it seemed like the kind of play that could've turned things around for the Cowboys.
But the Lions answered with Mike Williams' TD and Romo fumbled on his very next snap. That led to Jason Hanson's fourth field goal of the game and an eight-point Detroit lead with 2:58 to go.
When Romo was stopped shy of the goal line, the loudest cheer came from Philadelphia because it meant the Eagles clinched the division title. "We talked about playing with emotion," said Newman, who last week accused teammates of doing more talking than playing. "I don't think it was there."
 
It seems to me Dallas simply beat themselves...

romo did some bad things but 23 of 32 for 302 yards is pretty damn good in my book. Doea anyone believe that winning in TB with a QB named Rattay and no Cadillac or Clayton is even remotely noteworthy? Dallas smoked TB...

What about how DET nearly beat Chi the previous week?? So maybe DET just happened to play some good football in December...coming within minutes of saying we won vs Chi and @ NE and @ Dallas...
 
Totally agree with you about dallas. In many ways I think having to play on the road is the best thing that could happen to them. And if I have to read one more post where someone says "seattle don't lose at home"...

This weekend is scarily perfect for 6 point +100 two team and +180 3 team teasers - all four spreads go through the most important numbers. I'm really concerned about my self restraint :)
 
yea i think the "mangini knows belicheck angle" is over blown and the jets last few games didnt impress me at all especially that terrible dolphin game
 
touc said:
Totally agree with you about dallas. In many ways I think having to play on the road is the best thing that could happen to them. And if I have to read one more post where someone says "seattle don't lose at home"...

This weekend is scarily perfect for 6 point +100 two team and +180 3 team teasers - all four spreads go through the most important numbers. I'm really concerned about my self restraint :)
Click to expand...

Great point about being away and I did say that as well in my post. Its exactly what I said about the NYG as well when they traveled to Wash in week 17...sometimes the cure all is simply getting awayfrom your fans , the media , the comfortable routine, etc...

yeah you could do some damage with teasers....BOL bro...
 
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