Thursday Mlb playoffs discussion.

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
Not much to discuss w one stinking game. I really have no idea, strider could get this to a game 5 but I wouldn’t lay the price against Philly at home in playoffs, they just so good there. Kinda hope it goes to gm 5 just so these morons can put another stupid ass disrespectful number on wheeler. I imagine if he starts game 1 vs snakes they will show him a lot more respect, I assume it’s atl offense that has them putting easy numbers to cash with nola and wheeler? So I’d like one more shot. I dunno tho. Like I said I’m certainly not playing atl. Strider has pretty much dominated Phillies all year, he pretty much dominated them gm1. I don’t disagree w price I just don’t want to lay it. Honestly if you do like Braves just bet strider ov 17.5 outs that only -105 and I can pretty much promise ya he has to go at least 6 innings for Braves to win, if he out before then Philly will be popping bottles.

The one play I kinda like is Austin Riley ov 1.5 h/r/rbi, he doesn’t seem to mind the moment, has solid numbers vs Philly starter and has hit the pen to save the series. Not many Braves have great numbers vs Suarez, I’d think maybe they leave him in longer this game but I don’t know for sure? He could very well keep Philly in this game against strider, he has had plenty of success against these hitters, he has done well in postseason games, I think he has a chip from getting pulled early game 1. Maybe his 12.5 out totak at plus money worth a play? Of course it really sucks on the ones you could win essy if manager didn’t yank guy for no good reason, that could def happen again but I think if he pitching well we would see him go further.

I dunno, that bout all I got. Don’t see anything I love here. If you like Braves cheaper to play strider outs. Riley a solid hitter option. If you think they let Suarez pitch maybe there a play on him?
 
I'm not a Phillies fan but that was the epitome of manically passionate fans yesterday. Home field advantage personified.

That should be some scene tonight.
 
I took the Braves tonight for a little action and I modified the odds to lay a half run at lower juice.

I calculated my odds :

ML $68.40 @ -145 returns $47.17
Run line -1.5 $47.17 @+112 returns 52.83 basically in this case I am laying -1 runs $115.57 returns $100

then I attached a @ -145 moneyline to this $145 returns $100

If the Braves win by 1 run:

I lose -47.17 on the -1.5
I win +47.17 on the moneyline in the -1 situation
I win $100 on the money line so I Net +100
If the Braves win by 2+ I win $200

Total risk is $260 max win $200 and minimum win is $100

I have lowered my juice from -290 and instead of a full -1 line and a push on a 1 run game I get $100 return.

I have never done this before. Do you like the idea?

In the NHL they have half puck lines in regulation thats what I was trying to do. It doesnt work exactly the same in this case, but its the best I could do to lower the juice.
 
Frank Costanza said:
I'm not a Phillies fan but that was the epitome of manically passionate fans yesterday. Home field advantage personified.

That should be some scene tonight.
Click to expand...

For most part I think home field in baseball is incredibly overrated, outside certain stadium factors, I prob play more road teams all season just cause of prices. Philly in the playoffs I think one the biggest home field adv in the sport. that lineup feeds off the fans energy like I’ve never seen w any other team, it’s something else. Playoff baseball in stl is pretty damn great, as it is some other places as well but don’t think I’ve ever seen a team who gets fueled by it like Phillies in thar park: That why I refuse to pay juice to play against them tonight even with Strider who has basically dominated these guys, the only time he hasn’t? In Philly last year in playoffs they ran him in less than 3 innings!!
 
peelpub94 said:
View attachment 78315
Click to expand...

I didn’t see a ton of this game after I got the Ff over and Alvarez h/r/rbi I stopped watching. I will say Caroll last at bat the other night some prick called 2 strikes several inches above the zone. In the Philly game they gave elder several k’s off the plate that he didn’t give nola. When nola pitched vs fish he was getting calls 3 inches off the plate!! I can’t wait till we finally stop the nonsense and someone with a iPad calls the game correctly!!
 
askias said:
Strider strikeout prop is 8.5. Another way to bet whether you think he goes long or short.
Click to expand...

My only thing here is by no means am I saying don’t bet his k’s, dude could fan 10 in 4 innings! My point on his out total ov 17.5 -105 I think correlates more with whether or not Braves win, just my idea if anyone likes Braves and wanted cheaper option. I really don’t think Braves win this game if Strider doesn’t pitch at least 6 innings. He could strike out 9+ and I’m not sure if that means Philly didn’t run him before end of 6th, or I think he could go 6/7 and fan 8, maybe not tho, could be he goes 6+ he def fans 9+? I’m not sure. Lol. Just feel pretty confident if he out of game before end of 6th Philly winning this game. I don’t even have a lean far as whether or not he goes 6+ or who wins. Was just throwing it out there as a potential way to kinda play on Braves with less juice. I could be wrong, maybe he pitches 5 scoreless but his pitch count is elevated, Braves score off Suarez. Certainly isn’t a full proof plan just the way I’d look at it but I have no desire to play him or Braves in this park, Only reason I hope Braves win cause I know we will get more sweet numbers on wheeler in gm 5!! If Philly closes it out tonight and wheeler starts game 1 vs snakes I have a feeling they will make his props way closer to right, I assume it has to be Braves lineup the reason these clowns have set Nola and wheeler so low? Lol
 
So this is it for plays tonight for me, in no way are these bangers I just think solid plays worth a shot if ya need some action.

Suarez ov 11.5 outs -105.. I wouldn’t have paid much juice for this cause we just don’t know, will he be good and even if he is they could still yank him early again and go to the pen. They apparently have decided best ways to attack Braves with velo and it has pretty much worked so can’t fault manager, he has done a better job than most these tools (besides dusty and Bochey who HOF’ers, nothing the snakes manager had did been bad, he has had a well defined plan and stuck to it, I respect that), I just think it kinda hurt Suarez feelings, they gonna need this kid going forward, they not gonna want to turn all his starts into pen games, he has had good success vs most the Braves hitters and he has shown to have strong playoff chops, my biggest worry outside the strategy early hook is him getting to amped at home, power isn’t his game so he has to keep the emotions in check and make his pitches, he does that he could get Braves to pound a bunch of balls into the ground and go 4-5 innings easy. There obviously 2 different ways to lose this bet, 1 that has nothing to do with his ability to pitch a good game so we cant pound it, still worth a half sized play to me.

Riley ov 1.5 h/r/rbi -120.. he is one the Braves that has hit Suarez, he also been the most clutch player on the team in the game they won, I think if Braves are gonna get this to a game 5 they are gonna need a big time performance from this guy.

That’s all folks. Gl with whatever you decide.
 
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