Thursday MLB Discussion

tee*dub said:
Its like the gambling gods are telling me to move to FB season.. I don't play ML over -150, I don't play RLs, I don't play long shot dogs over +150 (very often).. One game to choose from today:hang:Yesterday sucked also.

Anyway. just wanted to vent. No plays for me today.:whip:
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Yankees !!! Tee !! Do it !!! ...

Just kidding . Well sort of . I am playing it because I think Halladay scuffles here and will speak about that later ...have to run out for abit

really Jays dont hit much and they were lucky to beat Rasner 2-1 . I am 1000% confident Halladay can NOT be any better then Burnett was that day. If Rasner can shut them down why cant Ponson who has pitched well and does so on turf and indoors see his career splits vs outdoors...

Think Jays have scored 2 or less in there last 5 at home ...Yanks do well in there Game 3s historically ....

so why lay -200 if the team your backing will struggle to score 3 runs ..? be back later :cheers:
 
Blue_Chip said:
With the lopsided game everyone is predicting, why not over 9 -114? It seems that everyone expects Chicago to embarass Fogg, and the only concern for Cubs backers is Zambrano. Chicago will probably win this, so if Z gets in trouble, it will be up to the Cubs bats to win the game. If Z does not get in trouble, the Cubs bats are still swinging at Fogg so they very well could send this total of 9 over themselves.

On the flip side, if Chicago goes up 4-0 early and Z is shutting down Cincy, will Chicago bat with any enthusiasm during the middle or late innings? We could see a 6-1 game.

Just a thought
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Oh I agree ...mentioned it before ...played it for a unit , played 1/2 units on the 1st 5 over and Cubs -1.5 RL said fuck it......:cheers:
 
mrmarbury said:
Since Lowe has poor day splits...would you lean over as far as a total goes ?
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On the fence honestly . Lowe does have poor day splits but I think more because of his struggles on the road (like .320 BAA I think) . Since those day starts from my recollection are mostly away games its more a road issue then day issue . Thats just my take I could be wrong and still looking at it ...

The flip is COL doesnt hit much in the day and Lowe athome and on normal rest is basically his best situation. Though different SPs they didnt hit Billingsley well as he labored with command ....

DeLaRosa has good career day splits especially in relation to his Night splits ...one thing I noticed he seemed to do better when he was spot starting pitching every 7 or 10 days but have to verify that still....

LAD can smoke LHs . DeLaRosa has struggled in his limited work vs LAD . LAD should and thats a bad word but they had 8hits through 4 innings vs Francis yesterday and IMO could have easily had 6 or 7 runs with just 1 maybe 2 clutch hits early ....

ball tends to carry better in day games @ LAD ......

Really more interested in LAD and -1.5 but still finishing it up..stepping out for few minutes be back before start:cheers:
 
jesus christ lee work the count dude went to full counts first two batters and he hits into a DP first pitch.. dumfuck
 
barmeezee said:
jesus christ lee work the count dude went to full counts first two batters and he hits into a DP first pitch.. dumfuck
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A big reason why I have cautioned the way some have used UMPs to play totals . Hitters arent changing there approach on most occassions due to umps . These guys still make silly mistakes like that because its all about split second decision making . They see the ball and have a fraction of a second to decide to swing or not there is no time to process info . So unless Lee goes up there thinking take the 1st pitch he is gonna struggle to layoff. Truth is he probably though okay Fogg is is trouble he just went full to the 1st batters walking 1 and allowing a single. He wants to get ahead HERE...which means he probably is throwing a fastball that catches more of the plate then normally because he is emphasizng strike 1 ...

Which back to the UMPs simply means they dont dictate games but they do impact them . Which is a HUGE difference ...only making the UMP IMO less relevant then some make it out to be on many occassions . The UMP should be the icing on the cake to further strengthen your play not IMO dictate your play . Though there are 3,4,5 guys who have long standing biases which are impossible to ignore...

.......

Take Cubs 2-0 after 2 innings...:cheers:
 
pigeon said:
around this same time last year is when the rockies went on their crazy run
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Didnt think they were very good last year and feel the same way now. Momentum is crazy though and if they get some now its possible they can will themselves again to such a streak...

Think the streak was more representative of how bad there divsion was...:shake:
 
SD was better last year (89-74). SF looks about the same. Arizona finished 18 games over .500 and after that fast start this year they are only 6 games over .500 and have some ridiculous winning percentage against the Rockies this year, I forget. LA Dodgers are heavily improved at least on the offensive end. Loss of Saito and Penny are big factors as well.

check out the Rockies remaining schedule -

vs. CIN
@ SF
@ SD
vs. SF
vs. HOU
@ ATL
vs. LAD
vs. SD
vs. ARI
@ SF
@ ARI
 
Zambrano is another reason to add a few cents to the Cubs line, you get a bonafide hitter in the 9 spot (just homered again) so no pitchers can help themselves off the hook by intentionally walking anyone/pitching around.
 
How is this for Deja Vu ...

Nomar hitting 3rd in front of Manny !! Love it !

hate Kent's absence huge offense decline from him to Berroa only magnified by an opposing LHP who ket hit well @ Coors.
DeLarosa never faced Nomar (well 0-1)or Manny(hard to believe), Berroa ex-teammate as well...

So actually 3 hitters with 1 ab vs him Martin , Nomar and Either and the 2 above with none..

The other 3 have hit him well - Loney , Blake and kemp......


Fuck me I missed finishing off my plays on LAD as it went OTB while I was typing .......damn I get distratced to easy
 
:shake:
pigeon said:
SD was better last year (89-74). SF looks about the same. Arizona finished 18 games over .500 and after that fast start this year they are only 6 games over .500 and have some ridiculous winning percentage against the Rockies this year, I forget. LA Dodgers are heavily improved at least on the offensive end. Loss of Saito and Penny are big factors as well.

check out the Rockies remaining schedule -

vs. CIN
@ SF
@ SD
vs. SF
vs. HOU
@ ATL
vs. LAD
vs. SD
vs. ARI
@ SF
@ ARI
Click to expand...


There division hasnt improved outside of LAD at all I agree . Even last year though none of those teams could hit so that was sort of my point . Easy to go on runs when your opposition struggles to score ...they could do it again but I just think they are a very good team ....pitching doesnt impress and seems like each year there hitting slowly gets worse...

Really not saying they cant do it again just probably a more off topic comment by me...
 
lean to under in SF, johnson is rolling lately, dont know a lot about palmer, but the strike zone should be more forgiving today with nelson bhp...

fwiw.. if anything..

"I feel good that game is behind me and I feel very fortunate they gave me another shot," said Palmer, who believes he was out of sorts for several reasons at Turner Field. For one, he had not pitched in eight days. He said the major-league ball felt different and he was dropping his front shoulder when he threw, forcing him to miss the strike zone.
 
pigeon said:
took Rockies @ +210 small
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Good Luck bro . I am pissed as hell I couldnt get what I wanted on LAD . Stuck with 1 unit on the RL-1.5 ...

Let me tell you having A.D.D sucks !!

And YES , Zambrano is such a great hitter not just for a pitcher . With him and Marquis they have 2 legit SP who can hit at the ML level.

Rocks 1-0 , tip my hat another manufactured run ...single , SB , grounder , sac fly ! Then another ERROR only #5 in 10 innings...:cheers:
 
Its not like they are tossing out guys like Fogg and Redman as they did at the end of last year. Only way for Francis from here is up. They have Cook and Jimenez who are much better this year and with a lot more experience. They have a lot of ground to catch but they play ARI twice and LAD again at home. Just something to keep an eye on IMO. Their lineup is healthy and looks better to me than it did last year. Corpas has settled down. Buchholz is filthy.
 
You are right though they have some nice options . The SP Jimenez has been great but he was basically doing the same thing last year when he pitched at home. He just proved he could do it over a full season not just 2 months. Probably no better "unknown type" SP at keeping his team in games ...crazy run of quality starts at home since his debut ...Cook hasnt been very good lately so I am concerned with him and his back issues , Francis looks okay since his debut be he hasnt been even 70% of the pitcher he was last year , they are using DeLaRosa as there 4th who really is no different then Josh Fogg especially seeing how Fogg pitched . Rusch as there 5th has been better then expected by Morales was solid as well in that spot late last year ...I just see 4 very hittable pitchers with little margin for error includig Cook and Francis ...

I actually do like there lineup if Spillsborough was healthy and playing CF. Its a black hole for them offensively. Of course Helton is nice to have as well even at this stage.

Pen is solid with 3 options late - Bucholz , Corpas and Fuentes just due to blowups....

They have defeinetly had there injuries but suprised by just 4 guys with dd Hrs ..and Holliday just 22 RBI in 200+ away atabts of his 73 ...

Definetly alot of upside ....:shake:
 
SF pen is scary. I had the u7.5 last night. Imagine my pain. Fuckface Wilson gives up a tying homer with 2 outs. The game minus some errors should not have gone over 6. That's why im so inclined to take the under with a ramirez-less marlins and a weka sf offense.
 
but Palmer is a QUESTION mark ...he may be better but he was terrible and ATL isnt exactly scorching the ball...
 
Dodgers are the most aggressive/impatient team. De La Rosa in a groove not having to sweat with his usual control problems. Lowe looking good.
 
pigeon said:
away teams + dogs are a losing proposition right now, sucks
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agree but its got to switch back.. Good time to watch.

Also, noticed several jumping the RLs. PLaying a -170 RL (Cubs) has incredible vig for the house. Don't mean to offend anyone but I am shocked with the love of the RLs around here..
 
pigeon said:
anyone have a good total tonight or bet in general for that matter
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Of all the totals left think Atl/NYM over 9 is the best. debating it for a small play

Have to think if one took all 3 of the big dogs left in the NL it would be plus money..
 
Ponson shit himself for sure ....Played NYY ML and over . Expected Halladay to continue his trend of struggling on normal rest at home...figured Yanks would get 4 ....
 
any letdown for Halos on first game back from a east coast roadie?

minny +160 vaLUE?

i do belive Baker hasn't faced Angels this year but same can be said of Lackey

although Baker is 0-3 in last 3 recent starts against them and lackey is 1-2 last 3 against

lackey i believe has not lost either since ASB...


hmmm
 
Took a shot with Minny and +1.5 as well . Baker has never beaten LAA and Lackey is like 4-6L10 vs them think 2-3 at home both 1 run wins . Couple tough series for LAA and had to fly from TB to LAA last nite . Lackey has been struggling on normal rest and really his no hit bid is his only high quality start lately . BOL
 
had MIN +158 as well, 8th inning drove me nuts as did this game... kept saying to myself "not again, road team, road dog" plus i was 0-6 in extra innings games this month
 
pigeon said:
had MIN +158 as well, 8th inning drove me nuts as did this game... kept saying to myself "not again, road team, road dog" plus i was 0-6 in extra innings games this month
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no shit huh??

bout time dog barked...i was thinkin maybe someone took him out back and shot him dead:shake:
 
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