TT OVER 5 -130 for the CUBS.. dont see how i wont hit htat
<TABLE class=module borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=800 border=0 rgfloat="440,600"><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap colSpan=8><CITE>Z.Greinke & C.Lee must start for action</CITE></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>Thu 8/21</TD><TD noWrap>2913 </TD><TD noWrap>KAN/CLE Score 1st Inn Yes</TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=M1_85> +150 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
this is tempting.. Greinke due for a blowup
under in anaheim makes sense. baker is usually solid through 5 and lackey is a stud. don't really want to risk laa's pen or baker after his second time through the lineup so first 5 is probably better than the full game.
odds are getting ridiculous
Good stuff SN...stupid to even think about a 350 fav in bases.
RL it is
:shake:
i think the worst thing about laying -350 if you lose is not the money lost, but knowing that you paid a embarrassingly ridiculous price and still lost.
My local has Cincy +2.5 runs -110. I think I have to bite on that one.
So you're saying the Cubbies might blow it open...right?I agree with a majority of you that -350 is ridiculous in such an unpredictable sport as baseball. However, has anyone noticed that there has only been 1 CHC series @ home this year that has had 3 straight unders? (5-26-5-28 vs the pre-Manny Dodgers).
Dunno who's behind the plate today but see a muggy 75 degree day in Chicago. CHC could cover this in the 6th by themselves...
Because you like the idea of getting a baseball team +2 runs Or because you feel the line is mispriced ?
The line is where it should be as typically from what I see its about a 60 cent spread from -1.5 to -2.5 so there is no value in that sense IMO.
Basically my point is this. If you felt it would be a close game with a very strong chance that it was decided by 2 runs or less then play it. If your doing it just because your getiing +2.5 at even money the play itself holds no value .......:cheers:
Are you sure? I don't see it anywhere, but I believe you...Soto is resting
I think stripping everything down to a very barebones analysis, a divisional game with the road team +2.5 (-110) has to have some value in my mind, but I definitely hear what you are saying - it will be a small play based more on principle. I will be overpaying for Florida today, so hopefully I don't feel like:hang:later this afternoon.
feels like i took a broom stick up the ass with KC giving up 5. Thought i was Mr. sharp guy, getting the under at 7.5 even. Oh well.
I don't see how anyone in their right mind can take the under in CHC but after yesterday's abysmal offense, it makes it hard to take the over too. Any thoughts on this one, i avoided the over last night due to the reverse movement and suspect low total. CHC TT is a good idea but the value is sucked out of that one long ago..
de la rosa at LAD stadium. Great day splits. I lean heavy to the under at first glance, esp with lowe at home.
Here 's a different approach to think about --
First lets not overly discuss this and give away something we can use to OUR advantage . If you really want to discuss it further PM me rather then keep bringing it up after this. Though its very straight forward and not a magic formula or system . A few quick questions are fine that let it stayed buried in here...and I am short on time at the moment...Just keep it in the back of your mind ...
It's not a secret its just more logic and commonsense IMO. My favorite tools .
Prices are crazy for these games thats OBVIOUS.
So when you really not into laying 280 and above do this .....
Look at the 1st Score of the game Props ....
Rather then lay -300 for the team you might get away with laying -140 for this prop...naturally in the low to mid 200s your not paying much say about -130 maybe even -120 at times...Its another option ....Since the road team hits first its clearly reduced because of that disadvantage..It doesnt have to happen in the 1st inn either I have won and even lost this prop after the 5th inning which can be annoying because you want a quick result but how many scoreless games do we see even in the 5th inning these days ? Its rare
Like anything else there has to be a reason why you would you play it . You just dont play it every big spread . Maybe the team is off a loss and good teams like to start fast , maybe the SP edge is huge and you know Brandon Webb can retire the order in the top 1st 1 , 2 , 3 and you have some #5 SP opposing him....Just do some research and make sure the SP doesnt struggle early as even with good SP there can be early inning woes. The old saying about great pitchers is get them early or you wont get them at all....Some guys have tendecies to allow early runs ..
So if your feeling stuck with no way to play these big games its another avenue to explore ...look for spots to play the HOME TEAM / HEAVY CHALK on the 1st Score of the game prop ....hopefully you pick wisely and nothing better then cashing a play in teh 1st or 2nd inning never having to worry about any other part of it......
If you have access to live betting also helps...if the road team scores 1st play obviously look to bet the home team but I have not really ever live bet or at least recently.....
Some people like FLA but wont pay -200 but you stuck paying -200 on the 1st score prop so thats not a better option . Well you also have the 1st inn SCORE Prop as well ..Yes or No ...clearly for this type situation would be interested in playing YES ....For example its around even money for this play @ SFG today . Two things would stand out for me to look at maybe playing it like this ....1st Palmer 1st home start could equal jitters and just being raw in general (though he is older rookie) having to face the top of the lineup 1-2-3-4 hitters could be a good chance someone gets on the board quickly. The other is SF has a thin lineup but if you have some combination of Lewis , Winn , Rowand , molina in the 1st few hitters then your getting the best SF has to offer ..Might not be enough to make a play on it your mind or my mind but again its a way to use other tools to make a PLAY on a game you may like but feel the price outweighs not only the risk but the reward since you may have to play it smaller thennormal....
If you can find an edge you have an option at +100 rather then -200...
Like the angle I often play when teams on the road rally from a defecit in the 9th inning and come up short , then I play them the next day if the opponent is the same to score 1st in the game.....perfect example was SD yesterday ...they rallied vs Zona the previous game from 7-3 lost 7-6 had teh closer pulled and everything so it was a legit scare and rally ( not just looking for RUNS scored in the 9th a clear RALLY)...they come out vs a good SP Danny Haren and put up 4 runs in teh T1st ...
Dont just give up on baseball because its getting hard ...as exciting as football is and will be like every new season there is a high rate of UNKNOWNS....130 games deep into a baseball season suprises are a few ....:shake: