Thursday MLB Discussion

Florida @ Philly total 9 :

Skimmed through the thread and saw alot of UNDER commenting .

Would say be very cautious here . First thing is 9 seems kinda high IMO for this SP matchup would expect 9 with strong UNDER vig if anything. Second thing is talking and posting can have great benefits as Tuck and BC have taught me alot and me aware of alot situational angles tolook for . Which brings me to FLA overs on the road (BC Balt work is the helping hand for this) .

Since May begin when Fla is on the road which is 42 games the OVER is :

28-9-5

Now like Balt inthis stretch the Marlins have posted CONSECUTIVE UNDERS just once all and in what was I believe in consecutive day games @ Wrigley with 2 power RHP opposing eachother . The scores were both 3-2 as Dempster faced Josh Johnson and then Volstad faced Rich Harden .

One thing about Volstads 2 road starts that I feel is overlooked is he is a young(tall) power RH who will do very well against RHBs but they key to his eveolvement like every young pitcher will be how does vs opposing batters which here is LHBs. So Philly will have a bunch of LH vs him which CHI really didnt and while LAD probably had just Either and Loney in a great pitchers park and with a weak , sluggish lineup at the time.

Hamels has really struggled past 2 times to the point where I am concerned . Also though his bad games always tend to be day starts for some reason. His 1st start vs FLA was a day game and we spoke about this before Game 1 Fish hit LH better away from home because I guess FLA is a good park for LHPs . Which is why I said look at how cheap Moyer has been in Philly compared to FLA and look how much better he was . Look how GREAT Hamels was aisde fromthe solo Hrs @ Fla.

I know Hohn has a great UNDER track record but please look at SP when these guys call games and try to see how those teams were hitting and those SP where doing at the time he called the game. Hohn has few bad SP matchups , few good offenses or good offensive parks . So while he may be an UND guy its again largely representative of the games he is calling .

vs Fla he had Nolasco v Webb who had more to do with the UND two All Star SP or him ? The other game Hendrickson vs Volzquez (both were in FLA) and the game was 9-4 Cincy . The only Philly gane he did was a Met win @ Citizens 4-2 with Philly killer Oliver Perez vs a solid and fairly consistent Kyle Kendrick. No disagreeing he helps pitchers but how much has to be the question.

Last 10 Games

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="10%">Date</TD><TD width="20%">Home - Road</TD><TD width="20%">Home Starter</TD><TD width="20%">Road Starter</TD><TD width="15%">Line</TD><TD width="10%">Result</TD><TD width="5%">O/U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/26/08</TD><TD class=datacell>SF 3 - ARI 5</TD><TD class=datacell>T. Lincecum</TD><TD class=datacell>B. Webb</TD><TD class=datacell>104/6.5</TD><TD class=datacell>Road</TD><TD class=datacell>O</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/21/08</TD><TD class=datacell>SEA 0 - BOS 4</TD><TD class=datacell>J. Washburn</TD><TD class=datacell>J. Lester</TD><TD class=datacell>141/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>Road</TD><TD class=datacell>U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/17/08</TD><TD class=datacell>COL 5 - PIT 3</TD><TD class=datacell>U. Jimenez</TD><TD class=datacell>P. Maholm</TD><TD class=datacell>-154/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>Home</TD><TD class=datacell>U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/10/08</TD><TD class=datacell>KC 4 - CHW 1</TD><TD class=datacell>Z. Greinke</TD><TD class=datacell>M. Buehrle</TD><TD class=datacell>-117/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>Home</TD><TD class=datacell>U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/06/08</TD><TD class=datacell>PHI 2 - NYM 4</TD><TD class=datacell>K. Kendrick</TD><TD class=datacell>O. Perez</TD><TD class=datacell>-115/10</TD><TD class=datacell>Road</TD><TD class=datacell>U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/01/08</TD><TD class=datacell>NYY 2 - TEX 3</TD><TD class=datacell>J. Chamberlain</TD><TD class=datacell>K. Millwood</TD><TD class=datacell>-225/9</TD><TD class=datacell>Road</TD><TD class=datacell>U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/27/08</TD><TD class=datacell>WAS 4 - BAL 2</TD><TD class=datacell>O. Perez</TD><TD class=datacell>D. Cabrera</TD><TD class=datacell>128/9</TD><TD class=datacell>Home</TD><TD class=datacell>U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/22/08</TD><TD class=datacell>PIT 5 - TOR 8</TD><TD class=datacell>I. Snell</TD><TD class=datacell>D. McGowan</TD><TD class=datacell>121/8</TD><TD class=datacell>Road</TD><TD class=datacell>O</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/18/08</TD><TD class=datacell>STL 2 - KC 3</TD><TD class=datacell>B. Looper</TD><TD class=datacell>B. Bannister</TD><TD class=datacell>-120/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>Road</TD><TD class=datacell>U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/13/08</TD><TD class=datacell>CIN 3 - BOS 1</TD><TD class=datacell>A. Harang</TD><TD class=datacell>J. Masterson</TD><TD class=datacell>-128/9</TD><TD class=datacell>Home</TD><TD class=datacell>U</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Look at these matchups :
Lincecum vs Webb
Washburn was on a 10 start tear and Lester is basically an All Star level SP facing a team whoc was lije 1-6 vs LH the first 7 times it faced one after releasing Sexson (huge LHP splits considering his shit year)
Jiminez hot SP and very good at home vs Maholm another very quality SP.
Greinke vs Buerhle same as the above comment except Greinke just very good at home(not HOT) .
Joba v Millwood ..only suprise is Millwood here but NYY also didnt hit much that series and struggled vs fellow RH Feldman who didnt have a great track record away at that point but was ne to NYY lineup
Odalis Perez vs solid at home with a sub 3 ERA and Cabrera also very solid away
Looper vs Bannister is hit or miss and I am sure he helped influence a 3-2 game ...but its not shocking since the AL owned the NL in IL . Looper solid at home , no DH , etc..
Harang was basically an AS type SP but struggled in 2008 but not always at home and really more after this start then before it. Masterson was solid his first bunch of starts and a quality prospect. Reds went through a long stretch of not scoring more then 3 runs vs RHP and we know about Bostons road woes ...

LHB 290 vs 223 for RHB 7bb 8k to 4bb 13K

Also Volstad is huge has a slow delivery . Even Yahoo Sports has an article on how Philly is eager to run on him which could lead to manufactured runs something they havent done. These pens are very hittable for both sides and again Hamels is a question mark.....

Probably laying off but lean over here .....:cheers:
 
SN, nothing special, yes, but you have to factor in these guys are hitting big shots now, producing when it matters. Whether that comes from playing superb baseball I don't care, even less interested in fading them if it isn't, especially at home.
 
The thing about the dodger this year that makes me so angry and resentful is their unclutch hitting with mob. They always seem to be able to do it when it doesnt matter, but never to win the game. I like kershaw, but the fact remains that he is still a rookie. Against Lohse, I wouldnt bank on the dodgers to score more then 3-4. That brings the questions whether or not you think Kershaw can hold them to 3. It certainly could happen, but i wouldnt count on it.
 
I dont know why they sucked me in last night on STL -40.... today looked at it some more and decided to buy out and lose 1/8 unit on the juice/line movement.

now that i see the lineups, its well worth it.

i know LAD doesnt win with welke behind the plate, but like doggy said it looks like lohse is starting to return to his old self, while kershaw is coming around, and if he only goes 5 here like hes been doing recently the pen will surely blow this game.

cards seem to struggle a bit vs LHSP as well.... while severely favoring RHSP.

i also HATE betting on teams to sweep, and would much rather play teams avoiding a sweep.
when you look at the lineups, youll see which team is more motivated in this game lol.

i should play the dodgers, but im not going to, but im not going to lose my money laying -40 on the cards in a game i dont think theyre that motivated to win
 
Satyr said:
SN, nothing special, yes, but you have to factor in these guys are hitting big shots now, producing when it matters. Whether that comes from playing superb baseball I don't care, even less interested in fading them if it isn't, especially at home.
Click to expand...

I understand your point . I dont disagree it with it as much as it may sound . If you look at the past 2 games who were the STL keys ? Ludwick and Pujols . Really both games were coin flips . Game 1-0 the rain delays and such it was 1-0 STL after 5 innings to which both SP exit . Once Billingsley was out of the game STL slowly expanded the lead to 4-0 vs weak relievers liek Falkenberg , Biemel and not sure I like see Park as anything about a long reliever especially after his starting stint. Anyway STL got to LAD 's pen first and eventually LAD got to STL pen. Both teams starnded to many runners in the 9th and 10th inn think STL 5 and LAD 4 . To which LAD had much better chances of scoring . They were down just 4-3 bases loaded 1 out and got only a sacfly to tie it and had 1st and 2nd 1 out with MArtin up who Kd allowing them to walk Manny and pitch to Loney . LAD ran out of pitchers using Johnson who started a couple days earlier saving Broxton to close it . So the underrated Ludwick hits a game winning 2 run HR off a guy who threw 90 something pitche 2 days before. So the Cards won a game that even after the choke the should have won with LAD running short of pitchers and LAD failing in consecutive chances to put STL away.

Yesterday LAD had the early lead but Lowe just feel to pieces up 3-1 . He allowed STL to tie at 3-3 in teh 3rd and was crushed in the 4th allowing STL to get ahead 8-3 (again Pujols GS and Ludwick Hr account for the runs) . LAD gets it to 8-4 and stupid baseball wit 2 outs walk Itzuris and the SP is pulled (shocker !) and asingle makes it 9-4 again. Then LAD gets it to 9-6 with a man on 2nd 1 out no further damage.

STL lost 2 of 3 to Philly and the game they won big Hrs by Ludwick on Friday . Its just to much from one player for a decent stretch now.

So why I like LAD is simple :
First your getting a team trying to avoid the sweep .
Second is your getting a good price one is willing to pay for LAD in game 1 and 2 . Is Lohse tougher then Carpenter ? Definetly not but maybe its close now since Carpenter is returning from injury but he looks rather solid in his 2 initial starts. Is Kershaw as good as Billinsgley ? No (not yet at least) , but he may be in the better spot . Him being LH is a nice plus looking at STL recent games vs LHP , Lohse pitching in the day is on paper a negative for him ( and plus for Kershaw as well) , plus as I said LAD was viewed as the better team to start the series now you get a ++ payout with them which creates value . I dont think STL at best has better then a 50% chance of completing the sweep .. Kershaw made his ML debut vs STL and was very good .

Lohse was not good vs Philly( and terrible at NY in the day vs a LHSP ) he was medicore and survived thanks mainly to run support. Loshe is 7-1 athome but only 9-5 in the 14 starts as his run support has not been very good. Important IMO is the fact of the 9 wins he has FIVE by 1 run . STL pen is probably weaker then ever at the moment and while he goes deep at times at home he really hasnt shown the ability to go 8 or 9 innings( just 8 inn twice in 14 home starts) . Actually half of Lohse home games were deciede by 1 run with STL being 5-2 what if he were 2-5 that would make him 500 at home in his 14 starts ? So its a thin line on how successful Lohse has been . He has pitched very well at home but even with that is still scrapping by. Also the 3bbs could be a telling sign since his walk count has been so low..

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>GS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SHO</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>WHIP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BAA</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Day</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>66.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>72</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>39</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>38</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>18</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>32</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5.18</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.36</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.281</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Night</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>13</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>13</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>78.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>78</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>24</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>22</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>46</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.52</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.21</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.257</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Kershaw in 5 day starts (only 25 inn) has allowed just 6 runs . However power pitcher and hot weather are always pluses...STL just 5-12 on THURSDAYS and 12-5 UND .

Recent STL games 7-7 vs LHSP and there wins have 1 common factor they had a big inning :
Hamels (6-3), Wolf (6-5), Duke (6-1) , pen vs Lilly ...(5-4 think3 or 4 in the 9th)
otherwise the the win vs Hamels @ Philly 2-0 , @ Houston vs Wandy think all 5 at least 4 runs were unearned (but again big inning)..so thats 6 of 7 wins with a big inning and always quality pitching opposite it ...Oh and vs Gambler @ Det bad move by Leyland kept Rogers out there after laboring in teh 5th inning and big 6th inn for STL...

Losses Johan 1 run CG , CC home shutout , Happ allows 2 runs , MMoyer allows 1 run, Marshall 1 , Rboertson 2 , Lester 3 ......

UND and LAD plays for me hoping the pens arent used to later ...despite Lohse road struggles still no Martin makes them soft after the 6th slot ....and STL also not very deep IMO...8.5 yesterday and much better SP here IMO
:cheers:






Side Note : I decided to play the over and Philly ML -220 (yikes!!) Just expect Philly to score vs Volstad and chase him earlier then expected and Philly is 0-3 for Hamels vs FLA blowing his last 2 superb performances . Fla play in general has slipped a notch and look for Philly wo win the series .
 
<table class="yspwhitebg" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="yspsctbg"><td colspan="10" class="ysptblhdr" height="18">LA Dodgers</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody2" align="right"> <td height="18" width="22%"> </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">AB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">R</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">H</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">RBI</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">BB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">K</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">LOB</td> <td colspan="2" class="yspdetailttl" width="16%">Season Avg </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> J. Pierre cf</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.279</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> M. Kemp rf</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.295</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> J. Kent 2b</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.256</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> M. Ramirez lf</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.600</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> J. Loney 1b</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.299</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> C. Blake 3b</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.375</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> A. Berroa ss</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.216</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> D. Ardoin c</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.208</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> C. Kershaw p</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.000</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr align="right"> <td align="left"> Totals</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td colspan="2"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td height="10">
</td></tr> </tbody></table> <table class="yspwhitebg" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="yspsctbg"> <td colspan="10" class="ysptblhdr" height="18"> St. Louis</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody2" align="right"> <td height="18" width="22%"> </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">AB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">R</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">H</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">RBI</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">BB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">K</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">LOB</td> <td colspan="2" class="yspdetailttl" width="16%">Season Avg </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> C. Izturis ss</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.239</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> J. Mather cf</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.253</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> A. Pujols 1b</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.352</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> R. Ludwick rf</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.307</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> T. Glaus 3b</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.272</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> F. Lopez lf</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.235</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> J. LaRue c</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.229</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> K. Lohse p</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.065</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> A. Miles 2b</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.317</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr align="right"> <td align="left"> Totals</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td colspan="2"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td height="17">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
COL/WAS over 10. Like this play a lot.

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b width="29%">Overall</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>H</TD><TD class=datahl2b>WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Jason Bergmann (R)
Jeff Francis (L)</TD><TD class=datacell>1-8
3-7</TD><TD class=datacell>3-13
5-12</TD><TD class=datacell>99.2
100.0</TD><TD class=datacell>105
115</TD><TD class=datacell>1.30
1.55</TD><TD class=datacell>4.33
5.67</TD><TD class=datacell>2.9
3.7</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2
5.5</TD><TD class=datacell>8-8
9-7</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b>Last 3</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>H</TD><TD class=datahl2b>WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Jason Bergmann (R)
Jeff Francis (L)</TD><TD class=datacell>0-2
1-1</TD><TD class=datacell>1-2
1-2</TD><TD class=datacell>17.0
16.1</TD><TD class=datacell>17
23</TD><TD class=datacell>1.35
1.71</TD><TD class=datacell>5.82
6.61</TD><TD class=datacell>4.3
4.7</TD><TD class=datacell>4.7
5.7</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1
2-1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Just one note about LAD record with Welke behind the dish-

Notice that Billingsley started the last 5 and 6 of the 8 in that 0-8 stretch . So is it Billingsley who doesnt win or the Dodgers? Both the other losses were by 1 run as were half of these games...

Lets hope LAD gets out of the 1st inn with a 1-0 lead....They did !! GL all ...Might be back later ....

Looking @ Bergmann in Game 1 . Francis off the DL with arm issues no less that required rest. Have to see if he went on rehab assignment otherwise his command should be at least a little off . COL as a team really good vs LHP and get Perez in Game 2 who also struggles on the road and faces Jiminez who has been fantastic of late but I caution him being lights out here as is he is getting some extra rest which hasnt happened often. I think COL even started him 1st game after the berak to keep his routine in check( every 5th day) . Last year the extra day was very beneficial and this year the extra day seems to come mostly on the road so not sure what to make of it . Since his road starts have been medicore especially compared to his home outings. Is it simply home-away dynamics with him or is just feeling better and sharper getting the ball every 5th day ??

Curious as to lineups . Would think since Nats are sort of a thin team if they can win the opener and coast the 2nd game ( not saying they dont try but rather attempt to try and win with less) as they have to travel afterwards with a 4 game set @ MILW while COL is fortunate enough to be home...

COL aslo 12-20 in day games and both teams STRONG uNDER Day trends ...think 21-11 COL and 21-10-1 Wash...so looking at that as Bergmann gets NO run support . And remember Bergamnn is Mr. Tough Luck at 3-13 on teh season when he starts...L9 for Col scored 5 or more just 3 times and the 8 last game vs Wash was almost all pen...:cheers:
 
On the Under myself SN, but went with the Rockies RL -1.5. DiMuro is big time homer. Home teams are 19-3 in his games and Francis has been lights out in his rehab starts...GL to us on the Under
 
I think I might have a gambling problem.

I'm sitting here trying to come up with reasons to bet the A's.....
 
Blue_Chip said:
Seriously. I wasn't being sarcastic if that's how you took it. I like Felix today as well. I took Seattle 1st 5 because I don't trust Seattle's bullpen.
Click to expand...

Me niether ...then I look at the stats and believe it or not SEA is 8th in baseball in ERA from teh 7th inning on at 3.47 and they were terrible early on in that situation blowing alot of games . So its gotta be real close to 3 since end of April ....:cheers:
 
scdoggy said:
I think I might have a gambling problem.

I'm sitting here trying to come up with reasons to bet the A's.....
Click to expand...

:36_11_6:

well there is this angle:

Thomas DID play for the Jays and he would love to stick it to them ( yeah i know...it's weak.......but Scutaro did play for A's as well so they cancel that out....Hmmmm)

ay fuck...close your eyes and click it (its raining here at work so I'm bored as well....luckily there is afternoon bases)
 
scdoggy said:
I think I might have a gambling problem.

I'm sitting here trying to come up with reasons to bet the A's.....
Click to expand...

I did that with the Philly game and cost myself 6 units ! I am the only person who goes from brderline to big play in an instant...Suprised the shit out of me to se a 3-0 game but what can you do..:cheers:
 
Retburj said:
:36_11_6:

well there is this angle:

Thomas DID play for the Jays and he would love to stick it to them ( yeah i know...it's weak.......but Scutaro did play for A's as well so they cancel that out....Hmmmm)

ay fuck...close your eyes and click it (its raining here at work so I'm bored as well....luckily there is afternoon bases)
Click to expand...

How bout the only way the A's CAN win a game is JD is the lights out ace he has been for about 80% of his starts . Think he lost 4 straight and 3 of those have been very good. Jays didnt deserve to win either of the past 2 games. Oak bases loaded no out on Tuesday in the 8th up 3-2 dont score to extend the lead and allow Tor to hang on. Of course Street who suddenly is Todd Jones blows with 2 outs . Then yesterday granted Oak didnt hit but Jays also had just 4 hits all game and got 5 runs I believe. Burnett has been real good of late but something has to give. Oak isnt playing that poorly as the probably lost at least 3 games in the past week they should have won...last home game to KC in extras , game in extras to Boston with JD on Friday and the Tuesday 4-3 loss.......

Kinda like now or never ...I might have to "chase" them on principle since I lost all 3 above mentioned games with them and maybe 1 or two more ...did yesterday.....

:36_11_6::cheers:
 
Oak game ...offenses are basically even though Oak might have more power ....SP is basically even but JD could be a tad better ....pens since Oak cant close it the Jays have the edge not sure outside of the closer though if Oak isnt better...

yeah , trying to convince myself as well..
 
And my shit book didnt offer any prop lines on Wash @ COL or 1st 5 inn because they are lazy !!!! Cost me Wash 1st score and Wash 1st 5 inn ML plays ...fuckers !
 
milledge with another jack!

there ya go SN

first one was all the way up near the concourse, this one was a line drive that just flew out of the park
 
Dutchie is way more consistent than Burnett, though I can't see AJ getting lit up at home by these clowns. I think I'm betting this though. I like the A's here.....

Its almost like they're begging for TOR money. Jays are only -115.... Come on.....
 
Sweet ...sucky part of taking dogs and unders is hoping for runs but cheering for some rallies to end quietly as well..
 
scdoggy said:
Dutchie is way more consistent than Burnett, though I can't see AJ getting lit up at home by these clowns. I think I'm betting this though. I like the A's here.....

Its almost like they're begging for TOR money. Jays are only -115.... Come on.....
Click to expand...

Agreed. Just felt that Burnett has been excellent last say 5 times out (off the top of my head) and been riding him a bunch . Oak just being so bad kinda scares me...

Again I have been on the OAK train a few times of late so I am just putting it out there I could be biased . I'll be on them as well. I think OAK hits Burnett well if I recall.....:cheers:
 
I'll see you at the meeting then Nut. I'll be the guy with bloodshot eyes sitting at the back of the class with the Iron Maiden T shirt on.

GA = Gambler's on A's
 
Pretty much a road team guy in the AL tonight :

Oak , NYY and Det which I probably like the least of them...after TB stole the win yesterday probably fade them with Felix today .

NL not sure ....
 
LAD wins 4-1 ...shame in that if I bet that game like I did the Philly total and vice versa I would be doing much better...stupid mistakes as always..
 
think i'll be hittin Rox hard in game2

Rox hit lefties hard, Perex numbers not good at Coors and im sure you'll see a more focused team lookin to get the loss back

'Baldo -1.5

lookin over the rest of the nite card
 
After taking a look at the lineups for the A's-Jay's game, I'm taking Toronto ML and Oakland team total under 3.5.

JD is a nice pitcher, but the Jays can hit at home. And against a weak hitting team, who've been on the road for awhile now and are strugging like crazy, it seems like a good spot for Burnett to show off his philthy stuff.
 
Had to take COL -1.5 and tad less on the over ...parlayed some involving this as well.....

COL 9-2 L 11 at home vs LHP and both losses were slugfests wherethe SP stunk it up . The last was 16-10 when Kip Wells allowed an 8 spot in the 1st . They are 14-5 all year at home vs LHP. They are 6-4-1 over in those 11 and 8-4-1 L13 at hoem since they started getting hea;lthy.

Nats are 2-16 L18 AWAY vs RHSP ( not counting knuckler Dickey)
Win vs Cook in Game 1 and Jurrijens after the break . This goes back to beating up on Owings @ Zona to whch Hren and Webb responded by shutting them down....

Nats rested some players and Rocks showed some late life . Also Peavy starts tmrw vs Rusch who as much as SD struggles vs LHP you dont want to miss this opportunity to win......

Really think Perez gets hit hard here . Game 1 flew by and still saw 9 runs as did game 2 where we saw 10. DOnt be fooled Nats pen is untrustworthy despitte a decent run...and COL not much better .....

RH 308 vs Perez only 198 vs LH
14Hrs allowed vs RH
Road 5.96 ERA to 2.26 at home..and 326 BAA vs 232...

BOL
 
JD at night 1.54 ERA , .179 BAA

Think he ha 5 starts away going on the 6th or 7th day(pitched last Friday so 6here) @ Cle , @ Tex , @ Ari , @ NY , @ Boston...all happen to be his 5 best road starts. Think 7 runs in 33.2 inn never more then 2 runs allowed or less then 6 innings....

Jays lineup looks soft IMO and as good as Burnett has been the A's have roughed up and knocked him out earlier then expected @ OAK in a good game by him where the results dont look as good..
 
Also Toronto officially announced that Cito Gaston will return next season as manager. Should give the team and fans a nice boost since everybody loves Big Bad Cito.
 
ya when i heard about cito coming back for next year, i was so excited!!! im looking forward to going to the games again
 
scdoggy said:
I'll see you at the meeting then Nut. I'll be the guy with bloodshot eyes sitting at the back of the class with the Iron Maiden T shirt on.

GA = Gambler's on A's
Click to expand...

Which Maiden Shirt?! I have the one with Eddie Playing Poker...:cheers:
 
alright guys, nightingale play for me on the A's... if duchsherer cant do it today, i am officially done betting this team for the year.
 
A's Fan Here. Been Fading My Own Team Lately, But Agree Trueblue, If Duke Pitches Like He Has For Most Of The Season...
 
SN i bit on the rocks too.... couple of hard hit balls in the 9th of game 1 and it looked like the bats were waking up for game 2.
when we look at odalis's numbers at coors one would tend to think so.

i was happy when shell got hit hard and pulled when he was trying to close, so at least hannrahan had to pitch and thats one solid reliever they wont have for this game most likely.

i am not sold on ubaldo's home numbers this year ---- he looks like shit. he threw a 99 mph fastball to K bonfacio in the first out of the game but since then, feh. his command has been awful and the pitches are not landing anywhere where near where theyre supposed to.

colorado has been extremely CRUSHING lhsp but they look like the fucking jays or dodgers of the old tonight. single single then stranding runner after runner.... with these bats and odalis it's amazing only one hard hit ball and theres our 2 runs.

still early and its still rockies at coors and nats pen to come and anything could happen.... but not lookin good so far.

got rockies RL as well.... and under 7 jays/oaktown. GL to us...
 
gonna put some Maiden in the background now while watching baseball


Some Clairvoyant or Fear Of the dark ;)
 
With Jiminez he has to be on normal rest I guess. In 2008 he made just 1 start on extra rest @ Coors and it was solid vs Minny so I was trying to make it a home-road issue with him. I guess like anything else he is in a groove and you mess the routine up and you run a chance of killing the hot streak.

Jiminez has 20 career starts at home which 14 of them he went at least 6 innings and allowed 3 runs or less. Think he had 6 inn 4 run start and another vs ATL where he went 5 inn allowed 3 runs and 2 earned. Thats pretty much just 4 career medicore or bad starts @ Coors.

His command maybe suffers and his arm probably just dont feel right when he gets the extra day ...

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>2.91</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>117.1</TD><TD align=right>89</TD><TD align=right>41</TD><TD align=right>38</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>55</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>92</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>.212</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>7.32</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>19.2</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>.371</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Half a game left and hopefully the Rocks chip back while the Rocks hold them at 6 . Then maybe we get some runs off the pen...:cheers:
 
Note sure about the Det matchup was think DET but??? now......

Yanks ML ( fine with the RL here) and Over .

They opened this total to high for a reason IMO get under money...

Moose lost 2-1 @ home vs Feldman and think Tex pen is an issue . As is Feldman his only recent starts that where good came on extra rest not a normal turn. He is battling fatigue from what I understand. Back before he got rocked when he was pitching well , he was supposed to get some extra days off . Instead he had to start 2 or 3 days earlier then expected when injuries decimated TEX staff . Since then its been a few starts you can see when he gets a week or so he is fine otherwise hit hard.......

Moose allows some hit hard balls that just die in Yankee Stadium but wont here . Quality effort but not exceptional . Think NYY lineup breaks out a bit here and gets at least 8 runs....and Texas always scores at home vs RHP....also Murphys absence huge for Texas ....:cheers:
 
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