Thursday MLB Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
 
I’m so against laying that kind of juice but is there any reason not to keep using twins to start off parlays? Even when pirates starter holds them down like tonight the offense can’t muster anything and the pen gave up runs late. Don’t see why that wouldn’t continue.

Although I will say this Brubaker kid pirates starting 2marro had fantastic stuff coming out of pen the 2x I’ve watched him this year. Not sure how deep he can go tho? He went 2 innings in relief vs cards, then 3 innings in relief vs cubs. Can’t imagine he can go more than 5 innings at most. Hard to make the case for pirates Ff tho cause I can’t see them hitting Maeda. The FF under might be a good bet!
 
Chatwood has looked fantastic, seems like he has finally learned to have some control over his pitches. He throwing way more cutters at the expense of the 4 seamer, his ground ball rate is much lower but his k/9 way up and most importantly his walks/9 is under 3 which a huge improvement for him. He shouldn’t have much problem with kc lineup if that continues. Another one that to pricey but potentially good parlay partner.
 
rare free article on BA from back in Feb 2019 on Bielak that delves into his arsenal

www.baseballamerica.com

Brandon Bielak Continues To Impress

An 11th-round pick in 2017, Brandon Bielak recently received an invitation to his first major league spring training, and his rise up the Astros' farm system has been both quick and impressive.
www.baseballamerica.com www.baseballamerica.com

Astros seem to be pretty high on him - big opportunity to lock himself into the rotation long term if he strings together a few quality outings and keeps pumping strikes with that lineup hitting behind him.

MLB.com scouting grades/report - #13 overall in HOU org:

Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)
  • FASTBALL
    55
  • CURVEBALL
    55
  • SLIDER
    50
  • CHANGEUP
    55
  • CONTROL
    50
  • OVERALL
    45
  • Poised to go early in the 2017 Draft after a big summer in the Cape Cod League, Bielak got hit hard as a Notre Dame junior and slid to the Astros in the 11th round. He found immediate success in pro ball, posting a 0.80 ERA in his debut and leading the system with a 2.23 mark in his first full season. He reached Triple-A last June and thrived after an early adjustment period.
    Bielak's repertoire begins with a 91-93 mph four-seam fastball that tops out at 95 and features high spin rates that create riding life. His most reliable offering is a circle changeup that helped him limit left-handers to a .177 average in his first three pro seasons. Houston has helped him improve the spin and shape of both of his breaking pitches, switching him from a traditional to a spike curveball and tightening up his slider.
    The whole of Bielak's arsenal is greater than the sum of its parts, none of which grades as a plus pitch. But he keeps hitters off balance by sequencing his offerings well and avoids getting into trouble with walks or home runs. With a durable build and a high arm slot that creates downhill plane, he projects as a possible No. 4 starter.
 
Once again A’s look way overpriced to me. Minor peripherals look better than his surface numbers but I havnt seen any his starts so I dunno, His velo down a bit. Friars velo is down several mph and lot of rangers have hit bombs off him. Once again I think the price prob has a lot to do with A’s pen advantage so will prob be looking at rangers FF. Over makes some sense with both starters velo down.
 
Grind_4_Mine said:
rare free article on BA from back in Feb 2019 on Bielak that delves into his arsenal

www.baseballamerica.com

Brandon Bielak Continues To Impress

An 11th-round pick in 2017, Brandon Bielak recently received an invitation to his first major league spring training, and his rise up the Astros' farm system has been both quick and impressive.
www.baseballamerica.com www.baseballamerica.com

Astros seem to be pretty high on him - big opportunity to lock himself into the rotation long term if he strings together a few quality outings and keeps pumping strikes with that lineup hitting behind him.

MLB.com scouting grades/report - #13 overall in HOU org:

Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)
  • FASTBALL
    55
  • CURVEBALL
    55
  • SLIDER
    50
  • CHANGEUP
    55
  • CONTROL
    50
  • OVERALL
    45
  • Poised to go early in the 2017 Draft after a big summer in the Cape Cod League, Bielak got hit hard as a Notre Dame junior and slid to the Astros in the 11th round. He found immediate success in pro ball, posting a 0.80 ERA in his debut and leading the system with a 2.23 mark in his first full season. He reached Triple-A last June and thrived after an early adjustment period.
    Bielak's repertoire begins with a 91-93 mph four-seam fastball that tops out at 95 and features high spin rates that create riding life. His most reliable offering is a circle changeup that helped him limit left-handers to a .177 average in his first three pro seasons. Houston has helped him improve the spin and shape of both of his breaking pitches, switching him from a traditional to a spike curveball and tightening up his slider.
    The whole of Bielak's arsenal is greater than the sum of its parts, none of which grades as a plus pitch. But he keeps hitters off balance by sequencing his offerings well and avoids getting into trouble with walks or home runs. With a durable build and a high arm slot that creates downhill plane, he projects as a possible No. 4 starter.
Click to expand...

Good stuff. He might be catching snakes at a bad time, could be their offense finally waking up? Or it could be just a one off tonight and they go back to struggling 2marro? I like Gallen a lot and whatever adjustment he made seemed to work last gams as his control was much better vs lad. If you can go 6 strong striking out 9 and only giving up few runs vs lad lineup you can handle any lineup imo.
 
2daBank said:
Good stuff. He might be catching snakes at a bad time, could be their offense finally waking up? Or it could be just a one off tonight and they go back to struggling 2marro? I like Gallen a lot and whatever adjustment he made seemed to work last gams as his control was much better vs lad. If you can go 6 strong striking out 9 and only giving up few runs vs lad lineup you can handle any lineup imo.
Click to expand...

hoping to catch Snakes 1st 5 around even money after the Gallen arm swing adjustment but may go 1st 5 under 5/5.5 instead since Bielak appears formidable. Gallen is just as tough on lefties when he's on with that 4-seam up/change piece combo, but HOU of course RHH dominate, esp with Brantley (iffy for Thurs?) on the mend, so no worries in that regard. Top 8 19 runs and counting in the desert - let's see an offensive hangover.
 
Grind_4_Mine said:
was hoping to catch Snakes 1st 5 around even money after the Gallen arm swing adjustment but may go 1st 5 under 5/5.5 instead since Bielak appears formidable. Gallen is just as tough on lefties when he's on with that 4-seam up/change piece combo, but HOU of course RHH dominate, esp with Brantley (iffy for Thurs?) on the mend, so no worries in that regard. Top 8 19 runs and counting in the desert - let's see an offensive hangover.
Click to expand...

Yea that def makes some sense, if we have solid ump I prob be inclined to play the Ff under too.
 
2daBank said:
I know right, def worry that the walks won’t lead to much. Big lean to Ff under as well.
Click to expand...
Yea, Montoyo is trying to move vladdy around to get him going(seems to have been working as he’s been hitting the ball harder and opposite field too) . Rowdy should be back tonight, but they said he was battling some sort of injury but he adds a lot of power from the left side and should be dh’ing. Cavan has been the most consistent hitter and everyone else is feast or famine. Teoscar Hernandez.. our Pedro cerrano.
 
MoneyStacks said:
Early lean towards Bundy (LAA) v. Taijuan Walker (Sea) F5 under 4.5.
Click to expand...

I just never freaking know what I’m gonna get with walker, thankfully he was great last start (cause I bet them) but the guy so inconsistent. I’ve always thought he talented enough to be better than he usually is.
 
2daBank said:
I just never freaking know what I’m gonna get with walker, thankfully he was great last start (cause I bet them) but the guy so inconsistent. I’ve always thought he talented enough to be better than he usually is.
Click to expand...

Does he remind you of a younger Carlos Martinez? Has the tools but doesn’t understand how to pitch?
 
Jays ml, Jays f5, Yankees over, Baltimore ml are what I’m looking at today.
 
MoneyStacks said:
Does he remind you of a younger Carlos Martinez? Has the tools but doesn’t understand how to pitch?
Click to expand...

Hadn’t ever really thought bout it but that not a bad comparison. Of course the problem being the Mfer ain’t young anymore! Not that he old, he right in the wheelhouse for where a lot of pitchers figure it out, so maybe this the year. (God that just how I sound w Carlos! Lol). I see he throwing way more sliders this year so far so maybe he has tweaked some things.
 
Anyone have the ump for the rangers/A’s game? Stat fox doesn’t have it listed for some reason.
 
I have no book on that guy, looks like this his 1st season at the majors. After a few games he not calling a high percentage of strikes so gonna roll with it.

Friars velo way down, minors little down. Tex pen can be had even if minor solid, I think rangers will knock friars around. I’m on the over 9 and rangers ff +130.
 
Ryno14 said:
I like this too but I’ve started to psych myself out on it when I see Tribe have gone under like 11 straight
Click to expand...

Lol. I hadn’t even noticed that, I know they ain’t scoring much. If they start against Castillo so be it!!
 
Rangers can start helping with the over anytime now, fuck. Needed them to hit friar, don’t expect them to hit oak pen.
 
Any thoughts in milw? I wanna back chisox but don’t trust gio, over looks solid but don’t trust brewers offense. Lol
 
Ryno14 said:
I’m not a huge Gio fan. Of course, Milwaukee bats been awful all year too
Click to expand...

Yea he sucks, even when he was “good” he walked to many. It just very hard to trust milw bats vs anyone. If I did it be a over play for me but don’t like ump so prob passing.
 
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