Thursday i failed the CFA Discussion

GWarner27

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
fml, and to make the day worse I had to deal with a Chad Qualls 3-run BS to kill my under

played MIA +116

leans from the BOL open:
ATL +184
PIT o8.5
BAL +109: Ripperger
WAS u7
MIN u8: Hamari

on the radar:
ATL u6
StL +104: Gorman
DET o9: T. Welke
MIN +169: Hamari
 
twinkie13 said:
how hard is that thing?
Click to expand...

42% passed, which was high as I was expecting 38%. Sad part is I thought I passed so I'm not even sure where to begin (it's a bell curve and they don't really tell you how you did in an exact way at all)

I'm gonna retake it in December and if i fail again I'm out, but i was really close to playing Buddy Norris +109 and have decided to wait
 
Don't hang your head it's a hard test. I failed it last summer. Luckily I got a scholarship to take that exam so I only lost the time I spent studying and not $. I had lots of things going on at time of test such as graduating, working fulltime and women issues! Looking back I could have prepared much better. I felt that the questions seemed easier on the 2nd part of the test (after break) but I was mentally exhausted by then because I didn't do as many practice exams in the EXACT format of the real exam. Also, I did feel a little anxiety due to test monitors basically standing over your shoulder which made me very uncomfortable.

Good learning experience.. I'm sure if you will perform better in 6 months.

We should all give P Unit PROPS for passing all 3 levels... smart dude!!!
 
leans
CWS/Tigers FF over [5?]
Rockies TT under
Orioles FF ML
Braves TT under [2'?]

sorry to hear about the CFA, GW. i'm sure it will be a different result next time around.
 
learing roster room for what could be multiple player moves before Thursday's Trade Deadline, the Giants released second baseman Dan Uggla and outfielder Tyler Colvin after Wednesday's 7-5 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
 
How is Teheran dogged @ +180? I mean I know he's facing Kershaw but it's way too high..anyone else agree or disagree?
 
Teheran started one game at Dodger Stadium last October. He pitched 2.2 innings and allowed 6 earned runs on 8 hits with 5 K and a walk. It's the only game he ever started in October. In Teheran's two road starts this month he lasted 10.1 IP and allowed 9 R on 18 H with 4 BB and 8 K. His last two road starts haven't been good.

He allowed 3 runs on 9 hits at home to the Padres in his last start. The 23-year-old Colombian native has only allowed nine or more hits four times in 22 starts this season. In his entire MLB career, the Braves are 6-1 SU in Teheran's subsequent starts after he allowed 8 or more hits in his previous start. Teheran pitched 48.1 innings and allowed 14 R on 41 H with 7 BB and 40 K. That's good for an ERA of 2.61 and WHIP of 0.993 in those seven games after allowing 8 or more hits if you want something to hang your hat on.

The Braves are 2-2 SU at plus-money in Teheran's starts this season, and 8-7 SU in his career starts lined at plus-money. So that's something else you can hang your hat on if you want to. Also, the Braves are 9-4 SU in Teheran's starts when he allowed zero walks in his previous start. But as luck would have it, one of those games happened to be the game in October at LA that he got shit on by the Dodgers.

And then you have Kershaw. The Dodgers are 10-0 SU in his starts since June. But the Braves are 4th in the MLB in OPS v LHP if you are looking for something else to hang your hat on. I don't know how you fade Kershaw in that situation though.
 
brsport13 said:
How is Teheran dogged @ +180? I mean I know he's facing Kershaw but it's way too high..anyone else agree or disagree?
Click to expand...

The average line you could have had on opposing teams facing Kershaw this season was +169. If you bet a unit on every one of those teams you would have gone 3-13 SU with a ROI of -50.9%. How do you feel about long-term money management.
 
Have to look at the trends but must confess that I dearly want to pound the Padres which is what I should have done today. Since it is a Low spread
 
Cubs first half for me.
Norris vs Skaggs seems fun
but the Padres
Much better starter
Better team Last 20 at Cards 4-16
Certainly would be fun to roast them
 
This could be fun. Every time the Padres play a high quality starter at home and are made a small fav you can attack them. Only 12-8 last 20 at home. Second ranked pitching staff in the National League. May run into some Cards mandatory win after a 10 plus loss. I hope not
 
I wasn't aware it was so hard to get into the Cat Fancier's Association (cfainc)?

I had to look up CFA and that came up. I know I 'm too new to bust ballz but I couldn't resist.
Love the threads!
 
Looking at Cubs early. Might have no choice but to fade this Rockies pitcher. He's been atrocious at the higher levels of play.
 
misschung said:
Don't hang your head it's a hard test. I failed it last summer. Luckily I got a scholarship to take that exam so I only lost the time I spent studying and not $. I had lots of things going on at time of test such as graduating, working fulltime and women issues! Looking back I could have prepared much better. I felt that the questions seemed easier on the 2nd part of the test (after break) but I was mentally exhausted by then because I didn't do as many practice exams in the EXACT format of the real exam. Also, I did feel a little anxiety due to test monitors basically standing over your shoulder which made me very uncomfortable.

Good learning experience.. I'm sure if you will perform better in 6 months.

We should all give P Unit PROPS for passing all 3 levels... smart dude!!!
Click to expand...

definitely, and i agree with the lack of testing that really got me because i had memorized concepts and just didn't have the polish to apply them quickly enough. Still the worst part is I thought I passed and a bunch of my friends thought they didn't yet did. That's the most puzzling part to me

Biff :shake:

updated leans:
ATL +190: DiMuro
BAL +105: Ripperger
WAS u7
DET o9: T. Welke
MIN +180: Hamari

on the radar:
StL +104: Gorman
PIT o8.5
MIN u8: Hamari
 
brsport13 said:
How is Teheran dogged @ +180? I mean I know he's facing Kershaw but it's way too high..anyone else agree or disagree?
Click to expand...

he's so good i'm likely going to be on Teheran even when I told myself I wouldn't be fading Kershaw anytime soon. Getting the run off Jansen was a huge step too
 
ChazHeston said:
I wasn't aware it was so hard to get into the Cat Fancier's Association (cfainc)?

I had to look up CFA and that came up. I know I 'm too new to bust ballz but I couldn't resist.
Love the threads!
Click to expand...

i'd probably have a better chance
 
LAD under
Toronto ML/Under (hutch on the road > hutch at home) SeattleML
Miami Under
 
BiffTFinancial said:
leans
CWS/Tigers FF over [5?]
Rockies TT under
Orioles FF ML
Braves TT under [2'?]

sorry to hear about the CFA, GW. i'm sure it will be a different result next time around.
Click to expand...

played CWS/Tigers FF over 5, O's FF ML

leans
Cubs RL
Rockies TT under [3'?]
Marlins/game under 6'/Reds TT under [3'?]
Pirates
Braves TT under [2'?]
 
So far The Cards have swept 3 teams and have never been swept. Only good argument for them so far as they are in the post Molina era playing a team with strong reasons to hate them that has only swept one team so far. Actually not true. Padre pitcher very talented with massive splits edge but still a rookie.
 
Is this good or bad. Key Element is under 500 this year

[TABLE="width: 798"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]7-30, 1-1, -$9.05
7-31 Bankroll $9,478.06 (RoR -.9%) YTD 122-123-30 (49.8%)
All plays today are $190.00
Padres, FG, -114 (Miller / Despaigne)
BOL
Padres: Only play of the day. If you have the gonads (which I do!) and ignore their offense the young rotation of the Padres will turn you a profit the next two months. As of right now their offensive potential is almost as good as the Cardinals anyway when you factor in the results of playing their home games in one of the strongest pitcher’s parks in all of baseball. The Cardinals should not be expected to do any better in that park than the Padres. The Cardinals have failed to produce a quality offensive output versus six straight right handed starters and are averaging just 1.66 earned offensive runs over that span. Miller is 7-13 in my quality start rankings while Despaigne is 5-1. This is a down year for the Cardinals and I don’t think they catch either the Brewers or the Pirates, nor can they look for a wild card spot. Perhaps Masterson can help if he catches fire (unlikely) but I think it is too little, too late. Lester or Price would definitely help but that does not look likely.
[/TD]
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tuck321 said:
does the .5 indicate you think you are making a bad bet?
Click to expand...

My standard MLB wager is .5u due to volume of plays. If I make a 1u wager, I feel strongly about that. I like the situation for STL. Avoiding sweep and facing a pitcher who I believe will regress mightily (just a matter of how soon). Not a huge fan of Miller, which keeps the bet as a standard bet.
 
Colorado SP today:

The Rockies will recall LHP Pedro Hernandez to start Thursday's game against the Cubs, according to MLB.com's Thomas Harding.
Hernandez has a 6.14 ERA with Triple-A Colorado Springs this season. The 25-year-old made 12 starts with the Twins last season, compiling a 6.83 ERA. Jul 30 - 6:50 PM
 
FWIW, I watched Despaigne in person last Saturday from section 410 Row 1 :) I saw the game earlier at home where he pitched gem. This game he took about 2 minutes in between pitches and after every close ball he would make all these immature facial expressions. He threw a bunch of pitches in the 60 mph zone. Pretty wild. Anyway Braves were patient and didnt chase the bs. Are the Padres really going to sweep Cards and make them under .500 for year on road?
 
Miami under
LA Dodgers under
Cardinals ML
Seattle ML
Cubs TT over

Thats it, maybe add a parlay in there with the jays ml somewhere
 
St Louis at San Deigo, 3:40 ET
Miller: 9-1 TSR after 2 or more consecutive losses
Despaigne: SAN DIEGO 14-25 after 2 straight games where they committed no errors
Also some trends that support Houston among others. I am concerned about Despaigne's last start. Will think more. In any case GO PADRES
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
FWIW, I watched Despaigne in person last Saturday from section 410 Row 1 :) I saw the game earlier at home where he pitched gem. This game he took about 2 minutes in between pitches and after every close ball he would make all these immature facial expressions. He threw a bunch of pitches in the 60 mph zone. Pretty wild. Anyway Braves were patient and didnt chase the bs. Are the Padres really going to sweep Cards and make them under .500 for year on road?
Click to expand...
I hope so. Cardinal season ended when Molina went down. Bad luck but everyone has it.
 
I need to think but good story. Went to an Angels blog. They had a poll on the blame for yesterday. Trout or fate. The fact that Richards with a great ump gave up 4 runs in 5 innings was not mentioned.
 
You are right Tuck. I cant allow time to underestimate Molina loss. Their season may very well be on brink and a loss today is more than possible.
 
Danks might be going to Yanks. Owned by Detroit. 15 HRs. Terrible day and away. Smyly owned by white sox. bad during day. Interesting 11 mph wind right to left. Public on under.
 
Sucks that Tim Welke is behind the plate, I kinda like that over as well but can't stomach an over with his k zone
 
KJ, You know that was one factor I didnt consider. I guess its good that Detoit plays at home tomorrow as well chisox to lessen any urge to expedite do to travel. Plus its a visceral thing with these guys. My eyeball says to play over with these tossahs.
 
[TABLE="class: forum, width: 799"]
<tbody>[TR="class: odd, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="class: forumpost-post, align: left"]stats courtesy covers and armadillo sports

DET -185 CWS 9ou
Ump: -- Tim Welke -- H/A W/L -- 10-11 -- Avg. Runs -- 7.1 -- O/U -- 8-13
Home fave -161 to 181+ -- 0-2
9ou -- 1-0

CHC -153 COL
Ump: -- Gerry Davis -- H/A W/L -- 16-3 -- Avg. Runs -- 7.89 -- O/U -- 7-10
Home fave -141 to 180 -- 10-0

CLE -131 SEA 8.5ou
Ump: -- Gabe Morales -- H/A W/L -- 13-11 -- Avg. Runs -- 9.08 -- O/U -- 14-8
Home fave -121 to 140 -- 0-3
Home fave -101 to 120 -- 3-0
Home fave -141 to 160 -- 3-2
8.5ou -- 3-2

SD -114 STL 7ou
Ump: -- Brian Gorman -- H/A W/L -- 8-10 -- Avg. Runs -- 7.28 -- O/U -- 9-9
Home fave -101 to 120 -- 2-1
Home fave -121 to 140 -- 1-3
OU 7 or less -- 5-3

Bal +103 LAA 9ou
Ump: -- Mike Ripperger -- H/A W/L -- 12-9 -- Avg. Runs -- 8.52 -- O/U -- 10-9
Home dog +100 to 130 -- 2-1
Home fave -101 to 120 -- 1-4
9ou -- 1-1

KC -177 MIN 8ou
Ump: -- Adam Hamari -- H/A W/L -- 6-13 -- Avg. Runs -- 7.63 -- O/U -- 8-9
Home fave -181+ -- 0-2
8ou -- 2-0

LAD -190 ATL
Ump: -- Mike DiMuro -- H/A W/L -- 4-15 -- Avg. Runs -- 8.74 -- O/U -- 8-7
Home fave -141 to 180 -- 1-3

Umpires
-- Col-Chi- Favorites won last six Davis games.
-- Atl-LA-- Five of last six Dimuro games went over.
-- StL-SD-- Favorites won last five Gorman games.
-- Chi-Det-- Eight of last ten TWelke games stayed under.
-- Sea-Clev-- Over is 8-1-1 in last ten Morales games.
-- LA-Blt-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Ripperger games.
-- Min-KC-- Underdogs are 6-5 in last eleven Hamari games.
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[TD="class: quoterow, align: right"]QUOTE[/TD]
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[TD="align: left"]Beningo88[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]RSI
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |[/TD]
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I played the Braves. But it doesn't have anything to do with avoiding a road sweep. I like the Braves' OPS v LHP. And check this out. Going back to last season, this is the Dodgers' subsequent game after blowing a ninth-inning lead and going into extra innings:

[TABLE="width: 849"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]Site[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Starter[/TD]
[TD]Opp[/TD]
[TD]Starter[/TD]
[TD]Final[/TD]
[TD]W/L[/TD]
[TD]O/U[/TD]
[TD]Line[/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25-Apr-13[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Dodgers[/TD]
[TD]Hyun Jin Ryu - L[/TD]
[TD]Mets[/TD]
[TD]Jeremy Hefner - R[/TD]
[TD]3-2[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-125[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1-Jun-13
[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Dodgers[/TD]
[TD]Zack Greinke - R[/TD]
[TD]Rockies[/TD]
[TD]Jhoulys Chacin - R[/TD]
[TD]6-7[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]122[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16-Jun-13
[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Dodgers[/TD]
[TD]Zack Greinke - R[/TD]
[TD]Pirates[/TD]
[TD]Gerrit Cole - R[/TD]
[TD]3-6[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]113[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13-Sep-13
[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Dodgers[/TD]
[TD]Clayton Kershaw - L[/TD]
[TD]Giants[/TD]
[TD]Madison Bumgarner - L[/TD]
[TD]2-4[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]P[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-182[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9-Apr-14
[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Dodgers[/TD]
[TD]Josh Beckett - R[/TD]
[TD]Tigers[/TD]
[TD]Anibal Sanchez - R[/TD]
[TD]6-7[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16-Apr-14[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Dodgers[/TD]
[TD]Paul Maholm - L[/TD]
[TD]Giants[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Vogelsong - R[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]100[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4-May-14
[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]Dodgers[/TD]
[TD]Stephen Fife - R[/TD]
[TD]Marlins[/TD]
[TD]Jose Fernandez - R[/TD]
[TD]4-5[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]165[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]31-Jul-14[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Dodgers[/TD]
[TD]Clayton Kershaw - L[/TD]
[TD]Braves[/TD]
[TD]Julio Teheran - R[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-205[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I highlighted in red the games where the Dodgers were coming off a win. Also, all seven of these games were either the second or third game of their respective series. So they were all against the same opponents they played the day before. I thought it was kind of scary and way too blatant not to play the Braves in this situation. So I did.
 
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