Thursday Discussion Thread

[2daBank]

I can't bet a big card in bases and do well. Just spot play and wait for Greene to pitch LOL

There days I shoulda played less but overall I think more plays I can find I think I have edge the better. Obviously can’t be firing away just cause want action, I try to let the card come to me. Some days that means 5-10 plays, some days only a few.

 

[2daBank]

I find most important thing for me is not to limit myself into some box telling me I can’t play more than x number of games, or that I want to play x number of plays. If there something I think a long term winning play I take it, if there not much that day I try not to feel like I gotta find more to play. Today there were only few games but then I liked few hitter/pitcher props.

 

[2daBank]

God damn, sale starts out walking the 1st 2

 

[2daBank]

His sliders are way to far up in zone this st bat

 

[KJ]

Impossible to bet 1st 5 under when the juice is always -135 to -175

 

[KJ]

Finally got 3.5 at -105, if it loses to 4 runs so be it

Those prices were outrageous at 4.5

 

[2daBank]

Strikes out the side after 2 walks!

 

[2daBank]

Impossible to bet 1st 5 under when the juice is always -135 to -175

Yea that is redic. No chance to hit totals at a clip that profits at those prices

 

[KJ]

Yea that is redic. No chance to hit totals at a clip that profits at those prices

What sucked even more was DK would put lines up but not allow them to be bet...they even threw out a 5.5 that inning obviously juiced, but not like you could bet it anyway

 

[2daBank]

I say just post what you wanna share, maybe you can inspire people to wake up earlier

I mean most ppl can just wake up and bet it from home, I gotta drive my happy ass across the river in middle the night, it appears that gonna be the only way to make money on these at the moment, the movement on them that last few days been insane. Cost me a handful of winners not getting up and going to Illinios In middle the night the other day, by morning guys totals had went up 1-2 k’s! Last year having to wait for casino to open sometime cost me some juice but for most part I could still get same number. I can’t bet a number once jt been driven up 1-2-3 extra strikeouts. Just McClanahan yesterday if you got the 5.5 open you won, waited till 9am and played 6.5 you lost.

 

[2daBank]

What sucked even more was DK would put lines up but not allow them to be bet...they even threw out a 5.5 that inning obviously juiced, but not like you could bet it anyway

Pissed me off this morning when I went to get sale k prop I wanted to bet nats Ff, for some reason I could bet them with the +.5 but not ml, how the hell that make sense?? I don’t want to lay juice to take the half run, rather get plus money and push.

 

[2daBank]

Sale control all over the freaking place so ump squeezing him. Mfer

 

[Marsski]

I mean most ppl can just wake up and bet it from home, I gotta drive my happy ass across the river in middle the night, it appears that gonna be the only way to make money on these at the moment, the movement on them that last few days been insane. Cost me a handful of winners not getting up and going to Illinios In middle the night the other day, by morning guys totals had went up 1-2 k’s! Last year having to wait for casino to open sometime cost me some juice but for most part I could still get same number. I can’t bet a number once jt been driven up 1-2-3 extra strikeouts. Just McClanahan yesterday if you got the 5.5 open you won, waited till 9am and played 6.5 you lost.

When do the K props come out for the next day? You know I want to bet my man in the afternoon matinee in philly

 

[KJ]

When do the K props come out for the next day? You know I want to bet my man in the afternoon matinee in philly

Time will likely vary because of you Mars :rofl:

 

[2daBank]

When do the K props come out for the next day? You know I want to bet my man in the afternoon matinee in philly

That another thing that sucks, there is no time. It all over the place. Sometimes overnight, sometimes middle the night. Strider didn’t come out till later this morning. They don’t all come out together and they not consistent with when they do come out. It a real pain in the ass!!

 

[2daBank]

Told ya he was throwing slider way too high!

Bomb. Then another k! Lol

 

[Marsski]

Time will likely will vary because of you Mars :rofl:

:angrybaseball:

 

[KJ]

Some serious bullshit

 

[Marsski]

Time will likely will vary because of you Mars :rofl:

I mean times does vary, but that's a deeper conversation and I'm at work right now...:smokejoint:

 

[KJ]

Even if I wanted to lay -205 they don't even let you bet it

Pricks

 

[2daBank]

You pretty much have to check every 30
Min all night to get a chance at open on k props! Shit is nuts, last year it wasn’t as big a deal cause like I said there were times I got stuck with extra juice but they wernt moving so drastically like they are now. Some more ppl have figured this shit out! Lol

 

[KJ]

I mean times does vary, but that's a deeper conversation and I'm at work right now...:smokejoint:

Wait aren't you a journalist? That should only help the flow of ideas, should be encouraged!

 

[2daBank]

sale at 40 pitches already. Hopefully he wraps up the last 2 punch outs next inning. Unless he finds his location fast he won’t be pitching more than 4 innings

 

[2daBank]

Sox did keep sending Kutter back out inning after inning despite getting rocked but I assume they be a lot more careful w sale,

 

[2daBank]

I was close to playing Comfoto hit prop but he has started the year ice cold. I saw some site touting him today cause he has a .600 ba vs Lynn, in 5 stinking at bats, hardly enough for me to say he owns Lynn.

Just stuck with the 2 white Sox hitters I posted.

 

[peelpub94]

Surprisingly Snell “only” walked 3+ in 9 of his 24 starts last year. Paying -135 for the over steep going by that. Atl has walked In 12% their at bats vs lhp this year, 10% over a more legit full season sample last year. Gotta assume Snell prob face around 20 batters, that would have to be a 15% walk rate to get 3. Even if he faces a handful more batters it still take above Braves typical walk rate to hit this number. By the math it doesn’t make sense to play the over, he could absolutely walk 3-4-5 guys but can’t justify playing it at the price.

Would also help to know who the umpire is in these situations, as well as Snell's catcher.

 

[2daBank]

Holy shit, a pickoff! You would think we see more pickoffs with way guys are taking huge leads!

 

[Marsski]

Wait aren't you a journalist? That should only help the flow of ideas, should be encouraged!

Not anymore, but when I was it was more whiskey in the desk drawer...

 

[KJ]

Not anymore, but when I was it was more whiskey in the desk drawer...

Sounds like the mini fridge when I was a mortgage broker

 

[TodaysWinners]

Even the worst teams win 60 games a year, I just got 2 wins in a series the pirates swept, don’t nobody think pirates any good. The whole reason baseball is good for me is cause the fact ppl don’t seemed to realize how things work, are the Rockies gonna win 80 games? I bet if ya laid -140 w them all year you be way down. I’ll take josiah gray over Freeland all day every day especially at the moment while nats hitters have been having success against lefties. This game is a coin flip and I got +135, I don’t really care how it plays out today, this kind of bet why I win at baseball every year. To each is own tho, not saying my way the only right way, it just right for me.

Recent Teams With Less Than 60 Wins For The Season
2022, Washington 55 wins

2021, Arizona 52 wins
2021, Baltimore 52 wins

2020, Everyone due to Covid

2019, Baltimore 54 wins
2019, Detroit 47 wins
2019, Kansas City 59 wins
2019, Miami 57 wins

2018, Baltimore 47 wins
2018, Kansas City 58 wins

The 2023 Washington Nationals fit this to a 't'. If they win over 55 games, I'll be shocked. I will play against them all season and be profitable.

 

[2daBank]

Would also help to know who the umpire is in these situations, as well as Snell's catcher.

I wouldn’t think catcher matters w Snell but I could be wrong? I hate the 1st game of series, they treat the ump crew like it a state secret! Fucjing stupid, why the big secret? Years ago when someone did a daily ump thread here (I miss that!) we were always trying to figure out ways to get a jump on ump crew. Trying to find guys who works at airports and shit! Is there a way to find out who on flights? I used to sit around for hours leading up to 1st game of series waiting for damn ump. I’ve since stopped caring and overall cap umps way less.

 

[2daBank]

Fucjing sale gonna get ran before hitting k prop. What happened to this guy? He gotta end inning w k

 

[2daBank]

He had last 2 guys 1-2 and gave up hits. Mfer

 

[peelpub94]

Fucjing sale gonna get ran before hitting k prop. What happened to this guy? He gotta end inning w k

Can't believe I put a wager backing him. I've bet against the Tigers 2x so far this season and they beat me both times..........

 

[KJ]

I wouldn’t think catcher matters w Snell but I could be wrong? I hate the 1st game of series, they treat the ump crew like it a state secret! Fucjing stupid, why the big secret? Years ago when someone did a daily ump thread here (I miss that!) we were always trying to figure out ways to get a jump on ump crew. Trying to find guys who works at airports and shit! Is there a way to find out who on flights? I used to sit around for hours leading up to 1st game of series waiting for damn ump. I’ve since stopped caring and overall cap umps way less.

:rofl:

Airport scouting services were better than sliced bread

 

[2daBank]

Recent Teams With Less Than 60 Wins For The Season
2022, Washington 55 wins

2021, Arizona 52 wins
2021, Baltimore 52 wins

2020, Everyone due to Covid

2019, Baltimore 54 wins
2019, Detroit 47 wins
2019, Kansas City 59 wins
2019, Miami 57 wins

2018, Baltimore 47 wins
2018, Kansas City 58 wins

The 2023 Washington Nationals fit this to a 't'. If they win over 55 games, I'll be shocked. I will play against them all season and be profitable.

You prob just smarter than me. I’ll be on Josiah gray a lot especially 1sy 5 at plus money and prob lose it all.

 

[Marsski]

I wouldn’t think catcher matters w Snell but I could be wrong? I hate the 1st game of series, they treat the ump crew like it a state secret! Fucjing stupid, why the big secret? Years ago when someone did a daily ump thread here (I miss that!) we were always trying to figure out ways to get a jump on ump crew. Trying to find guys who works at airports and shit! Is there a way to find out who on flights? I used to sit around for hours leading up to 1st game of series waiting for damn ump. I’ve since stopped caring and overall cap umps way less.

There's only one umpire that matters....you can't play an over with him behind the dish

 

[KJ]

There's only one umpire that matters....you can't play an over with him behind the dish

I'd throw Mooch in that mix too

And Miller if he's still alive, think he's friends with wiseplayer

 

[2daBank]

There's only one umpire that matters....you can't play an over with him behind the dish

Lol. There a few but I know the 1. Last several years I think overall umps have gotten a bit more uniform but there still some old school guys w big zones!

 

[Marsski]

I'd throw Mooch in that mix too

And Miller if he's still alive, think he's friends with wiseplayer

Is Mooch under guy? This is new info to me

 

[KJ]

Is Mooch under guy? This is new info to me

Oh yeah

 

[KJ]

Is Mooch under guy? This is new info to me

Just make sure you don't get him confused with Gooch who is pretty much opposite

 

[2daBank]

Whoever behind dish in Detroit squeezing both, especially sale not giving him the inside part the plate. Shit annoys me, they need to pull him in and show him the video!

 

[KJ]

Throw Kulpa in there too, running Manny Tuesday in the 1st inning confirms he's still got it

 

[2daBank]

Vanovsr at 1st today, his name is ironic!! So he at 1st today, I always get confused if that puts him behind plate 2marro or at 2ns then 3rd then home? lol

 

[TodaysWinners]

You prob just smarter than me. I’ll be on Josiah gray a lot especially 1sy 5 at plus money and prob lose it all.

Probably not, just pointing out there have been teams that have won under sixty games when you stated there weren't. Back who you want, Washington is a really bad team. They may win this afternoon, but they are triple digit bound for loses this season.

The attachment, below, is from Vegas Insider a few minutes ago. Huge numbers on Washington, has me taking a shot against them earlier. Might be right, might be wrong. Time will tell.

 

[KJ]

Vanovsr at 1st today, his name is ironic!! So he at 1st today, I always get confused if that puts him behind plate 2marro or at 2ns then 3rd then home? lol

Usually would be tomorrow but always check

Secret society has thrown in a 5th ump on occasion

But 1st is how we've used the system, VanUnder will be a small test tomorrow

 

[KJ]

Still cracks me up

Buddy is an exec with the Snakes and we were talking umps one night over a couple beers

He asked and I delivered that Excel spreadsheet that someone used to keep, shows how long ago it was because Kirk Gibson was the one that requested it

 

[2daBank]

Boom, Sale over 5.5 k’s cashes!

 

[2daBank]

Still cracks me up

Buddy is an exec with the Snakes and we were talking umps one night over a couple beers

He asked and I delivered that Excel spreadsheet that someone used to keep, shows how long ago it was because Kirk Gibson was the one that requested it

I’ve decided I’m ready for a 18 year old with a iPad calling balls and strikes. Years ago I hated the idea as I have notebook full of ump stuff and thought it gane me a edge but not days I have so much to do I rather just know I was getting the exact same and correct zone every game!!