Thursday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 6 Thu 2023

12:10 PM
901Miami MarlinsE. Cabrera -R+1½
-155		+138O 8
-110
902New York MetsT. Megill -R+1 Markets-1½
+135		-149U 8
-110
12:10 PM
911Boston Red SoxC. Sale -L-1½
+100		-155O 8
-110
912Detroit TigersS. Turnbull -R+1 Markets+1½
-120		+143U 8
-110
01:10 PM
913Toronto Blue JaysK. Gausman -R-1½
-113		-175O 8½
-115
914Kansas City RoyalsJ. Lyles -R+1 Markets+1½
-107		+161U 8½
-105
01:10 PM
919San Francisco GiantsA. Wood -L+1½
-180		+118O 8
-110
920Chicago White SoxL. Lynn -R+1 Markets-1½
+160		-128U 8
-110
03:10 PM
905Washington NationalsJ. Gray -R+1½
-155		+126O 10½
-114
906Colorado RockiesK. Freeland -L+1 Markets-1½
+135		-136U 10½
-106
06:20 PM
907San Diego PadresB. Snell -L+1½
-150		+148O 7½
-110
908Atlanta BravesS. Strider -R+1 Markets-1½
+130		-161U 7½
-110
09:10 PM
909Los Angeles DodgersD. May -R-1½
+105		-152O 8½
-115
910Arizona DiamondbacksM. Kelly -R+1 Markets+1½
-125		+140U 8½
-105
 
Thanks for doing this for me bro, I’m gonna have to get these all capped before morning and hopefully find a few plays to make overnight. Anyways you are worth every penny they paying you! Lmao
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Yeah this has been hard for me. Much of the data I rely on needs more time to collect!
Click to expand...

I think there good and bad to that, the more numbers you get the more the books get. Early on You just gotta count on some instincts and getting to know players who nobody has heard of yet! There always teams they just flat out wrong about giving some nice plus money on teams playing better than expected.
 
2daBank said:
I think there good and bad to that, the more numbers you get the more the books get. Early on You just gotta count on some instincts and getting to know players who nobody has heard of yet! There always teams they just flat out wrong about giving some nice plus money on teams playing better than expected.
Click to expand...
I think Phillies' hangover has been a good numbers-defying sort of thing to profit from
 
carolinablue said:
Man this baseball stuff has been a complete mystery to me out of the gate but guess I can take solace in the fact that I’m only four days in. Gonna try to learn from you guys who are much smarter than me so looking forward to checking out the discussion!
Click to expand...
+1. I'm getting my a@@ handed to me........is anybody beating this sport playing just sides and totals ? cause most stuff i see from the top guys are props

just seems like there is more variance in bases then any other sport by a mile. And big part of it comes down to does pitcher x have his "stuff" today .....if he does you win. if he doesn't you lose. .....and throw in the pen variance if it's not a first 5. Pens seem to be getting crushed big time early in year, Clase types blowing saves left and right.

I think alot of it may just be pattern recognition on when starting pitchers get on hot streaks. I'm probably playing Cease, Cole, and Javier unders and spread from here on out until they prove otherwise. I'll probably be playing against Sale tomorrow

Probably just auto betting marlin and tampa ray unders are going to give a better result then over thinking bets once you get to end of season. All the advanced metrics, advanced stats, I don't think it matters. only thing that matters is if the pitcher wakes up with good stuff.
 
I thought I was gonna be on lynn k prop but the more I look at that game the more I think over might be the better play. While Lynn isn’t bad vs left handed hitters his k:bb ratio is significantly worse and giants lineup is loaded w lefties, I even think if Lynn got bet up to a 6.5 a case could be made to play his under. Giants lineup has found the long ball in Chicago and Lynn never been shy about giving up a few bombs. This wood 1st start of the year, he been his worst on 6+ days rest, been worse during the day, and we know cws like hitting lhp. Nice breeze blowing out I think 8 is incredibly attainable here as I think both starters give up 2-3 runs and both pens been a mess early on.
 
Great price to back nationals imo, might split between Ff and game cause I def want some my bet to be focused on josiah grey vs Freeland. Nats have actually started the year hitting lhp really well with a .794 ops, Freeland struggled at coors last year and his 1st start vs pads was a bit misleading as pads just hit everything at ppl, his ground ball rate was terrible along with only 1k which obviously concerning going to pitch at coors. Grey pitched here once before and wasn’t bad. His stuff is good enough to play at any park. Honestly think it kinda crazy rox laying this kind of number as their pen been getting bombed and they havnt even played at coors yet! So nats have easily the better starter, a offense that been hitting lefties surprisingly well, and rox pen been awful yet we getting +135? Sign me up.
 
Sale ov 5.5 k”s -165. Had to go ti Illinios early as fuck to get this, it going up. Tigers been fanning a bunch vs lhp In particular. Sale got rocked 1st start but still had 8 of 9 outs by k’s. I expect he better today long as he healthy for 4-5 innings, lol.

Gray ov 4.5 k’s -115
 
Well soon as I got done betting sale and posting it he jumped to 6.5. Im gonna be doing middle the night thing a lot it appears to be able to play pitchers k props. I dunno if it helping anyone for me to post those or not? I’m happy to do it but just don’t want ppl waking up and being mad they can’t get the number, lol. Or I can just post the ones I play later on that don’t go crazy? Up to you guys.
 
2daBank said:
Well soon as I got done betting sale and posting it he jumped to 6.5. Im gonna be doing middle the night thing a lot it appears to be able to play pitchers k props. I dunno if it helping anyone for me to post those or not? I’m happy to do it but just don’t want ppl waking up and being mad they can’t get the number, lol. Or I can just post the ones I play later on that don’t go crazy? Up to you guys.
Click to expand...
I say just post what you wanna share, maybe you can inspire people to wake up earlier
 
2daBank said:
Well soon as I got done betting sale and posting it he jumped to 6.5. Im gonna be doing middle the night thing a lot it appears to be able to play pitchers k props. I dunno if it helping anyone for me to post those or not? I’m happy to do it but just don’t want ppl waking up and being mad they can’t get the number, lol. Or I can just post the ones I play later on that don’t go crazy? Up to you guys.
Click to expand...
Just post what u play…… the decision to follow or not is up to us……we all grownups here….have many years of gambling pain already…..whoever bitches are noobs…..
 
Washington is a really bad team. Yes they will win once every four or five games but if you're backing them daily, you're going to lose. The same can be said about a really good team but playing them to lose. Just my shiny penny's thoughts this morning.
 
Playing my home team, Rox ML as well. Looking to parlay with some that involves Masters. GL today boys
 
TodaysWinners said:
Washington is a really bad team. Yes they will win once every four or five games but if you're backing them daily, you're going to lose. The same can be said about a really good team but playing them to lose. Just my shiny penny's thoughts this morning.
Click to expand...

Even the worst teams win 60 games a year, I just got 2 wins in a series the pirates swept, don’t nobody think pirates any good. The whole reason baseball is good for me is cause the fact ppl don’t seemed to realize how things work, are the Rockies gonna win 80 games? I bet if ya laid -140 w them all year you be way down. I’ll take josiah gray over Freeland all day every day especially at the moment while nats hitters have been having success against lefties. This game is a coin flip and I got +135, I don’t really care how it plays out today, this kind of bet why I win at baseball every year. To each is own tho, not saying my way the only right way, it just right for me.
 
2daBank said:
Even the worst teams win 60 games a year, I just got 2 wins in a series the pirates swept, don’t nobody think pirates any good. The whole reason baseball is good for me is cause the fact ppl don’t seemed to realize how things work, are the Rockies gonna win 80 games? I bet if ya laid -140 w them all year you be way down. I’ll take josiah gray over Freeland all day every day especially at the moment while nats hitters have been having success against lefties. This game is a coin flip and I got +135, I don’t really care how it plays out today, this kind of bet why I win at baseball every year. To each is own tho, not saying my way the only right way, it just right for me.
Click to expand...
Don't forget that the Nats literally just saw a much better lefty just yesterday. Should've had more off him than they did too. Nats was first play that jumped out to me as well. BOL.
 
Rox havnt even been home yet and their pen has one the worst era in baseball, wonder which way that goes at coors?? I get it ppl scared of “bad teams” but who the fuck crowned the Rockies good??
 
Ryno14 said:
Don't forget that the Nats literally just saw a much better lefty just yesterday. Should've had more off him than they did too. Nats was first play that jumped out to me as well. BOL.
Click to expand...

When I went out super early so I could get sale k prop I couldnt get the Ff ml, I really wanna split between 1st 5 and game but didn’t want to pay juice for that half run, lm gonna go back over and take Ff at whatever plus it at sometime before it starts. Who knows which pen sucks worse? I def want some my money on gray over Freeland at plus anything.
 
Ryno14 said:
Don't forget that the Nats literally just saw a much better lefty just yesterday. Should've had more off him than they did too. Nats was first play that jumped out to me as well. BOL.
Click to expand...

They def stepping down in competition, clearly both teams are. Thing is any given day I think josiah grsy good enough to beat anyone, he has potential to get blown up still also but the stuff is elite, when I do play nats it will mostly be when I get a price on him I like.
 
peelpub94 said:
Talk me off TOR, COL, LAD, ATL

Gausman
Freeland (rox at home)
May
Strider
Click to expand...

Freeland not good at home. I’ve said all I can bout that game. The others just too expensive for me besides Braves, as erratic as Snell is plus Braves like lefties, plus strider easily the filthiest pitcher the not so hot hitting pads have seen, I could def Rock w Braves.
 
2daBank said:
Even the worst teams win 60 games a year, I just got 2 wins in a series the pirates swept, don’t nobody think pirates any good. The whole reason baseball is good for me is cause the fact ppl don’t seemed to realize how things work, are the Rockies gonna win 80 games? I bet if ya laid -140 w them all year you be way down. I’ll take josiah gray over Freeland all day every day especially at the moment while nats hitters have been having success against lefties. This game is a coin flip and I got +135, I don’t really care how it plays out today, this kind of bet why I win at baseball every year. To each is own tho, not saying my way the only right way, it just right for me.
Click to expand...
Que the Gamehunter thread that's pinned at the top
 
KJ said:
Que the Gamehunter thread that's pinned at the top
Click to expand...

It could be I’m too high on gray but I think he could be really good, his stuff is top the rotation imo. I don’t think it be shocking if he was able to be a .500 pitcher on this team. I doubt nats beating Mets or Braves much, it when they play other not so good teams they gonna win some games. I dunno if this true or not, I know rox much better at home but I’d think right now while they been at spring then started the year in cali they havnt exactky adjusted to their park yet so I’m guessing it less of a advantage now than later on.
 
I don’t freaking understand why they cancelled all those games so early? I’m looking at radar and hour by hour and I don’t even see rain in freaking NY or cincy!
 
2daBank said:
I don’t freaking understand why they cancelled all those games so early? I’m looking at radar and hour by hour and I don’t even see rain in freaking NY or cincy!
Click to expand...
Cincy in Philly

Maybe everyone is just worn down after a week, NBA style day off
 
KJ said:
Cincy in Philly

Maybe everyone is just worn down after a week, NBA style day off
Click to expand...

Hour by hour in Philly don’t show anything but sunny skies till 7 o’clock, lol. Baltimore only place it even shows a chance of those 3. Plus if it anything like it was here it moved in and out fairly quickly, like few hours and it was over, I guess those are all home openers so they had the extra day to play with. Awfully ballsy trusting these fucktard weathermen tho, shit crack me up if they coulda played today then 2marro they get rain that wasn’t forecasted!
 
2daBank said:
I don’t freaking understand why they cancelled all those games so early? I’m looking at radar and hour by hour and I don’t even see rain in freaking NY or cincy!
Click to expand...
Thought the same, I'm thinking they just couldn't guarantee it so made the right call to move to tomorrow where there is 0% chance..
 
If I was gonna play a pitcher w a high k prop strider ov 7.5 would prob be one the few I would trust, my issue there is pads don’t fan a lot at around 19% as a team thus far. I was really hoping for a 6.5 but no such luck. I suppose what could do Is make a SGP w strider 7+ k’s + Braves ml but god damn, they charging -255 for 7+ so it would only pay +105. Not sure that worth it.
 
I’ve only played a few pitcher walk props but Snell ov 2.5 walks appealing at 1st glance, gotta look closer but that mofo liable to walk 5-6 guys any given start!
 
Surprisingly Snell “only” walked 3+ in 9 of his 24 starts last year. Paying -135 for the over steep going by that. Atl has walked In 12% their at bats vs lhp this year, 10% over a more legit full season sample last year. Gotta assume Snell prob face around 20 batters, that would have to be a 15% walk rate to get 3. Even if he faces a handful more batters it still take above Braves typical walk rate to hit this number. By the math it doesn’t make sense to play the over, he could absolutely walk 3-4-5 guys but can’t justify playing it at the price.
 
2daBank said:
Surprisingly Snell “only” walked 3+ in 9 of his 24 starts last year. Paying -135 for the over steep going by that. Atl has walked In 12% their at bats vs lhp this year, 10% over a more legit full season sample last year. Gotta assume Snell prob face around 20 batters, that would have to be a 15% walk rate to get 3. Even if he faces a handful more batters it still take above Braves typical walk rate to hit this number. By the math it doesn’t make sense to play the over, he could absolutely walk 3-4-5 guys but can’t justify playing it at the price.
Click to expand...
It's possible you just fried my brain and I'm posting from the other side
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

VirginiaCavs
Saturday Discussion Thread
Replies
38
Views
265
TheDodgers
T
VirginiaCavs
Sunday Discussion Thread
2 3
Replies
124
Views
634
2daBank
2daBank
VirginiaCavs
Sunday Discussion Thread
Replies
29
Views
255
peelpub94
peelpub94
VirginiaCavs
Friday Discussion Thread
2 3
Replies
116
Views
586
2daBank
2daBank
VirginiaCavs
Monday Discussion Thread
2
Replies
58
Views
440
CPA-hole
CPA-hole
Back
Top