Thursday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
May 12 Thu 2022

12:05 PM
901New York MetsT. Walker -R-1½
+100		-142O 8½
-115
902Washington NationalsJ. Adon -R+1½
-120		+131U 8½
-105
12:10 PM
907Oakland AthleticsJ. Kaprielian -R+1½
-198		-103O 7½
-110
908Detroit TigersB. Brieske -R-1½
+173		-107U 7½
-110
12:10 PM
909Houston AstrosL. Garcia -R-1½
+122		-125O 8½
-105
910Minnesota TwinsJ. Winder -R+1 Markets+1½
-142		+115U 8½
-115
05:35 PM
903Cincinnati RedsC. Overton -R+1½
-165		+123O 8
-105
904Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Brubaker -R-1½
+145		-133U 8
-115
07:05 PM
911Kansas City RoyalsJ. Heasley -R+1½
-175		+118O 8
-120
912Texas RangersT. Hearn -L-1½
+155		-128U 8
+100
07:10 PM
913New York YankeesL. Gil -R+1½
-163		+122O 8
-105
914Chicago White SoxD. Cease -R-1½
+143		-132U 8
-115
09:10 PM
905Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Wheeler -R+1½
-155		+125O 8
+100
906Los Angeles DodgersT. Anderson -L-1½
+135		-135U 8
-120
 
That is a hell of a price to back wheeler in lad! I dunno if I can pass that up, doyers coming back from east while Phillies been out west I think gives them a little bit of a unusual edge in this one also.
 
Smokeshow99 said:
Looking at Brieske, Overton (Rematch with Pirates, definition of average SP), Wheeler

Might go against Hicks.
Click to expand...

Who pitching for o’s and what the price? I certainly think there some merit to fading him, I think 5 innings would be his absolute best case which means again few cards pen guys I prob don’t like, although there A pen guys well rested.

Hard to say with the offense until I know who pitching for O’s. I mean if it a lefty I wouldn’t want any part of them.
 
KJ said:

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1524761399976726528

Saw a couple conflicting sites but seems like it's Baker/bullpen day
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ugh, that makes this pretty difficult. i dont really trust cards offense if they see a different rhp in every at bat! at the same time do O's really have a deep enough pen to trot out 6+ guys without at least one having a bad performance? with hicks going we can pretty much be assured it will be minimum 4 innings of cards pen with the chance it more. Thing is cards best relievers are well rested so we should see a inning or 2 out of genesis cabrera who is filthy and a lefty for which O's have the worst ops in baseball against. Helsly is fresh and he been lights out, if hicks is able to go 4 innings there a good chance those 2 guys and then Gallegos be all the O's see as none of them have pitched since san fran. that kinda kills my over lean as i dont expect balty will score anything off those 3. maybe 1st 5 over makes more sense since it really be about Hicks and if he gets ran early the bridge guys between him and those studs. Cards offense is showing some good signs lately with some youngsters giving them a spark, Carlson on a 6 game hit streak and he much better than his early season numbers so i expect him to continue his upward tick, goldy has also been coming around, they really need Oneal to get back to crushing balls, they been giving him lot of days off lately in what im sure a attempt to get him going. we cant have him striking out over 30% the time, hitting .200, and not hitting bombs! it has gotten hot here so the ball should def be carrying more, cards hit a whole bunch of doubles yesterday which a good sign.. still waiting to see lineup, dunno why everything taking so long for this game?
 
2daBank said:
ugh, that makes this pretty difficult. i dont really trust cards offense if they see a different rhp in every at bat! at the same time do O's really have a deep enough pen to trot out 6+ guys without at least one having a bad performance? with hicks going we can pretty much be assured it will be minimum 4 innings of cards pen with the chance it more. Thing is cards best relievers are well rested so we should see a inning or 2 out of genesis cabrera who is filthy and a lefty for which O's have the worst ops in baseball against. Helsly is fresh and he been lights out, if hicks is able to go 4 innings there a good chance those 2 guys and then Gallegos be all the O's see as none of them have pitched since san fran. that kinda kills my over lean as i dont expect balty will score anything off those 3. maybe 1st 5 over makes more sense since it really be about Hicks and if he gets ran early the bridge guys between him and those studs. Cards offense is showing some good signs lately with some youngsters giving them a spark, Carlson on a 6 game hit streak and he much better than his early season numbers so i expect him to continue his upward tick, goldy has also been coming around, they really need Oneal to get back to crushing balls, they been giving him lot of days off lately in what im sure a attempt to get him going. we cant have him striking out over 30% the time, hitting .200, and not hitting bombs! it has gotten hot here so the ball should def be carrying more, cards hit a whole bunch of doubles yesterday which a good sign.. still waiting to see lineup, dunno why everything taking so long for this game?
Click to expand...
Found this for Cards

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524771866161946624
 
But that shows Matz pitching, apparently last minute change for Cards too
 
Hicks is forcing guys to pound the ball into the ground w that power sinker, that a good thing as the ball should def travel today. sure would like to see more swing and miss tho, guy throwing 99-100 with movement yet a swinging strike of less than 10% for his career.
 
KJ said:
But that shows Matz pitching, apparently last minute change for Cards too
Click to expand...

well that weird, i guess it possible since he last pitched the 7th, think that 4 days rest and he only threw 2 innings since he got bombed! i would love him today vs O's tho!!
 
i hate when they stick Pujols in the 5 hole unless it against a lefty.. another thing i hate is they dont have the balls to pitch hit for him when they get guys on base and opposing team brings in a righty, they often will take him out when a rhp gets inserted into the game (as they should) but the never pitch hit for him when it comes up with guys on base and team goes to pen to face him, they bow down to him and let him fuck up the inning! god forbid we disrespect his old ass and try to win the game!!
 
not only do O's have the worst ops in baseball against lhp but they striking out over 30% the time vs lefties. Matz is at his worst on 4 days rest but the fact he only threw 2 innings his last start might help? i assume he feels good and ready to go or they wouldnt have made the change, he always been better in the day and while his numbers at busch are bad that mostly against cards lineup who has always hit lefties. his last start at busch was fantastic, i would expect him to pitch well here more times than not this year.
 
2daBank said:
well that weird, i guess it possible since he last pitched the 7th, think that 4 days rest and he only threw 2 innings since he got bombed! i would love him today vs O's tho!!
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Not sure with those lines what's even possible, maybe over I guess but never know when you know a bunch of pitchers will be used going in. HP ump favors unders. Tough game
 
KJ said:
Not sure with those lines what's even possible, maybe over I guess but never know when you know a bunch of pitchers will be used going in. HP ump favors unders. Tough game
Click to expand...

i dont think O's scoring much when it should be Matz, Cabrera, Helsly, closer.. think im liking the O's team total under 3.5 again.
 
kaprielian ov 16.5 outs.. righties havnt had a ton of problems navigating tigers lineup even tho they have a bunch of left handed hitters to throw at them., injuries been this kids biggest problem but they let him throw 99 pitches in his last start vs twins so it appears he healthy and good to go right now. 5.2 innings should be plenty doable vs a team sporting a .565 ops vs rhp!
 
Any thoughts on NYY/CHW game? Yanks bats has been hot but I do like Cease pitching lately, not sure Gil will get past 5 innings...
 
Jm8122 said:
Any thoughts on NYY/CHW game? Yanks bats has been hot but I do like Cease pitching lately, not sure Gil will get past 5 innings...
Click to expand...

havnt gotten to the night games yet, had to hurry up so i could go get the day bets in. im gonna look now.
 
brubaker ov 5.5k's +120.. think the plus money makes this worth a play. reds offense has picked things up of late but that been at milw then at their band box, now they gotta go to pirates spacious park and face a guy that fanned them 9x last week. he struggled at the beginning this year but it was mostly walks which never really been a issue and he has seemingly gotten under control his last few starts. he fanning more guys than ever and reds have plenty of swing and miss in that lineup..
 
Jm8122 said:
Any thoughts on NYY/CHW game? Yanks bats has been hot but I do like Cease pitching lately, not sure Gil will get past 5 innings...
Click to expand...

i dont really see much, cws been hot and no clue what we get from gil? i wouldnt lay that vs yanks but i think price is justified.. really couldnt argue playing yankees+125, not like chisox offense has really exploded, mostly been winning with pitching so are they gonna score a whole lot vs gil and yanks pen? much like cardinals rhp has been their issue so i doubt they score more than 3-4 runs.
 
2daBank said:
i dont really see much, cws been hot and no clue what we get from gil? i wouldnt lay that vs yanks but i think price is justified.. really couldnt argue playing yankees+125, not like chisox offense has really exploded, mostly been winning with pitching so are they gonna score a whole lot vs gil and yanks pen? much like cardinals rhp has been their issue so i doubt they score more than 3-4 runs.
Click to expand...
A AAA callup with a 9 era is only a +130 underdog. That's all you need to know.
 
Can’t believe he had the nerve to try and get more money in arbitration, is it any wonder you lost asshole? You hitting below .200 and have 2 stinking home runs!
 
serves you right Oakland. I hope you Fuckinh lose pulling the starter at 75 pitches when he ain’t had no problem w that part of order and guy you bring in gives up the lead. Mfer gives you 5 strong innings and his pitch count that low least you can do is let him come out for 6th and see how he does before you yank him!!
 
Steep price but Winder o3.5 ks -140 seems smart, especially with how much the pen had to work in g1
 
KJ said:
Steep price but Winder o3.5 ks -140 seems smart, especially with how much the pen had to work in g1
Click to expand...

I didht look at him but 3.5 has been my cryptonite. Don’t think I’ve cashed 1 and had several get stuck on 3.
 
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Mfer’s daring us with Overton outs total, 14.5? Numbers guys hit him down from 15.5 outs and not gonna lie I considered him there. I get it, when you look at him it doesn’t look like much but the guy went to coors and pitched more than 5 strong innings, then repeated the performance back home vs pit. We do have the situation I hate where same lineup seeing him in b2b starts, pirates throwing a lineup full of left handed bats at him which he struggled with his 1st stint in bigs last year (very small sample), thus far he has been great vs them this year (again tiny sample), guy throws a healthy mix of different pitches and getting to pitch in a much more spacious park tonight. I think it worth a shot that he can manage 5 innings, he did it at 2 tough places to pitch, not sure why he can’t do it here?

Overton Over 14.5 outs, spitting in the face of the die hard metrics guys!
 
2daBank said:
Mfer’s daring us with Overton outs total, 14.5? Numbers guys hit him down from 15.5 outs and not gonna lie I considered him there. I get it, when you look at him it doesn’t look like much but the guy went to coors and pitched more than 5 strong innings, then repeated the performance back home vs pit. We do have the situation I hate where same lineup seeing him in b2b starts, pirates throwing a lineup full of left handed bats at him which he struggled with his 1st stint in bigs last year (very small sample), thus far he has been great vs them this year (again tiny sample), guy throws a healthy mix of different pitches and getting to pitch in a much more spacious park tonight. I think it worth a shot that he can manage 5 innings, he did it at 2 tough places to pitch, not sure why he can’t do it here?

Overton Over 14.5 outs, spitting in the face of the die hard metrics guys!
Click to expand...
Wasn't gonna say anything about the A's pitcher hoping it hit for you and read it after the game started but him throwing 99 pitches last game probably put him on a much shorter leash today, hard to see someone going that deep b2b starts this early in the season and that 5th inning they were beginning to shell him, watched along online and it's pissy, was pulling for it but wasn't shocked when he didn't come back out.

Sounds like a same game parlay to me with PIT/CIN
 
2daBank said:
I mean he made 6 big league starts with a 3ish era last year, it is the Yankees, and chisox not exactly raking righties. I’d been shocked if they made cws more than -150.
Click to expand...

Yeah it’s far from a trap with the biggest franchise in the sport with the best record. You could argue any plus money is a trap!
 
KJ said:
Wasn't gonna say anything about the A's pitcher hoping it hit for you and read it after the game started but him throwing 99 pitches last game probably put him on a much shorter leash today, hard to see someone going that deep b2b starts this early in the season and that 5th inning they were beginning to shell him, watched along online and it's pissy, was pulling for it but wasn't shocked when he didn't come back out.

Sounds like a same game parlay to me with PIT/CIN
Click to expand...

I looked at it totally backwards, the fact they let him throw 99 pitches last time in only his second start made me assume he had been stretched out in the minors and was good to go. Where the fuck were you before the game to tell me the error in my ways! Lol.

Started to “get shelled” a drastic overstatement, he just couldn’t get the 7-8 hitters out all day, until the 5th I believe Castro was only tiger w hits, and he walked Torkelson behind him both times (did same thing w those 2 in 3rd inning I think it was) he was just able to get everyone out afterwords, this time he gave a double up to the 9 hole hitter,l but then he got 1-2 in the order again to end the 5th. I honestly didn’t think there was any chance they wernt gonna send him back out considering nobody he woulda faced in 6th had gotten a hit off him. I’m ok with giving him short leash there, if he puts someone on go ahead and yank him but at 75 pitches and only a couple guys hitting him all day it never crossed my they wouldn’t let him pitch the 6th, but as I said I didn’t think bout it the way you put it, just assumed it meant he was good to go.
 
I mean that double was the only extra base hit he allowed all day, that and the 2 Castro singles was it. Dunno why he was so scared of Torkelson tho? He walked him on 4 pitches that you could tell he wasn’t trying to throw for strikes the 2nd time (didn’t see the 1sy ab), I like that kid but I damn sure wouldn’t be scared to pitch to a kid they have hitting in the 8 hole!!
 
At risk of totally jinxing him in the 5th Overton was seriously like stealing when the analytic geeks bet him down to 14.5 outs! He might be one those sneaky guys who have value the entire season cause the die hard analytic types hate him and keep expecting regression while he out performs his metrics! Not everyone has the stuff to strike out a hitter a inning, doesn’t mean they can’t pitch! Anyone who can pitch to contact and survive coors doing so im willing to give benefit the doubt and see what happens.
 
Brubaker not gonna hit his strikeout. So 1-1 at plus money. Can’t win them all. Should split the out props also long as Overton gives us 3 more outs!
 
I played Phillies 1st 5 +105, I’ll take wheeler vs anderson at plus money all day. No interest being involved late where Phillies liable to blow the game.

Wheeler ov 16.5 outs. 5.2 innings all they want? Wheeler a legit ace imo:, don’t care who he facing he capable of having a quality start every time out. Lad back from east trip with no days off, I think that a tough spot.
 
Overton cruises thru 5. I was shocked they dropped him to 14.5 outs. I was gonna play over 15.5 at plus money!
 
2daBank said:
At risk of totally jinxing him in the 5th Overton was seriously like stealing when the analytic geeks bet him down to 14.5 outs! He might be one those sneaky guys who have value the entire season cause the die hard analytic types hate him and keep expecting regression while he out performs his metrics! Not everyone has the stuff to strike out a hitter a inning, doesn’t mean they can’t pitch! Anyone who can pitch to contact and survive coors doing so im willing to give benefit the doubt and see what happens.
Click to expand...
I like overton to an extent. Average stuff, but he’s got something going. I think that’s control? He’s good against the NL lineups. I would be afraid to take him against elite lineups.
 
Smokeshow99 said:
I like overton to an extent. Average stuff, but he’s got something going. I think that’s control? He’s good against the NL lineups. I would be afraid to take him against elite lineups.
Click to expand...
With the DH now what's the difference between NL and AL lineups?

Clearly this season is showing so far that a lot of pitchers have adjusted nicely in both leagues, maybe now that they don't have to hit the pitchers will actually be more focused in the NL? Crazy how awful offense has been this season.
 
Smokeshow99 said:
I like overton to an extent. Average stuff, but he’s got something going. I think that’s control? He’s good against the NL lineups. I would be afraid to take him against elite lineups.
Click to expand...

I seriously was looking to fade him when he opened his season at coors, I saw a guy who 28 and just now cracking a rotation, and a bad one at that, but he was able to navigate 5+ strong innings at coors. Nothing great but a good mix of pitches and seems he has figured out how to pitch. Since he don’t have swing and miss stuff his lines will get pounded against him all year, the die hard analytic types are very predictable w which guys they don’t like and they move the lines!

I’m certainly not hating on analytics, I use them a ton, but some the best value the last few years is finding guys who out perform their metrics cause the black and white crowd will continue fading those guys. After getting their teeth kicked in over and over the minute guy has a bad outing they be like “see, regression, I told you”! Lmao.
 
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I can’t wait for him to pitch against cardinals. That screams 6+ innings and only allowing a run or 2!
 
Segura ov 1.5 bases +135. He only been .5 w fairly heavy juice, I used him a few times in parlays the last week. Need 2 bases now but plus money and he been hot, on a 9 game hit streak And hit 3 bombs in last 4 games. Take w a grain of salt, I’m better w pitchers than hitters but I played him for a little so figured I’d share.
 
KJ said:
With the DH now what's the difference between NL and AL lineups?

Clearly this season is showing so far that a lot of pitchers have adjusted nicely in both leagues, maybe now that they don't have to hit the pitchers will actually be more focused in the NL? Crazy how awful offense has been this season.
Click to expand...
IMO, the NL hasn't had the time to sign and look for DH's with the rule change. While the AL has had the DH for decades. This is just my opinion, feel free to refute.
 
2daBank said:
Segura ov 1.5 bases +135. He only been .5 w fairly heavy juice, I used him a few times in parlays the last week. Need 2 bases now but plus money and he been hot, on a 9 game hit streak And hit 3 bombs in last 4 games. Take w a grain of salt, I’m better w pitchers than hitters but I played him for a little so figured I’d share.
Click to expand...

Double in his 1st at bat!!
 
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