Thursday, 8/16 Discussion

peelpub94

peelpub94

More Guards Than Shawshank
I'll bite on Roark and the Nats +125. He's been lights out while Weaver hasn't been so great 5.13/1.39 at home this season. Nats offense can't be held down forever.

Does Lester continue the post ASB implosion in PITT?
 
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Nova 12 k’s in L25 IP
5.34 FIP
Throwing his fastball 68.1% of the time
Marte and Mercer questionable

Lean cubs here
 
X-rays on Matt Carpenter's right hand came back negative.

That's obviously great news. Carpenter exited after being hit by a Matt Grace offering on Wednesday. This doesn't completely clear Carpenter from missing time, but it certainly appears that Carpenter was able to avoid a long-term injury. We should know more about the severity after the completion of the game. Aug 15 - 11:07 PM

Source: Derrick Goold on Twitter
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
I like how you sell runs. GL today
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Thank you. Selling runs probably generated half my profits this season. Frustrating at times (had SF/LA under 7 +140 last night), but it's helped way more than it's hurt. Next year, I'll try to track on basis of the common line vs my line to compare respective ROI, assuming I can stay organized enough. GL to you too.
 
In the Yank game we have some difficult choices. This is a very good day for NY. Snell has been killed at NY. Snell was never playing on 5 days on the matches last 2 years. Tanaka has his best catcher 1.46 ERA. Tanaka with ump a little over 2 innings ERA 23.61 ERA. Tanaka is playing after a Yankee loss. Snell on 5 slightly less than a 1 ERA. First 5 under 1 unit. Closing eyes Snell ML first 5 1 unit
 
In my research, I see divisional dogs home or away around 130 to 170 during late season window, like game 113-143 doing terrific last five years
 
Last time Snell pitched at Bronx, I think Torres hit a 3 run jack to kill my TB ff bet, funny how we always remember the losers
 
Lester is a mess @ PNC. In 46 innings Pirates are hitting .414 against him, including an 8 run shelling his last visit there this season. Over 8.5 seems reasonable, will wait for lineups and umps.
 
tuck321 said:
In the Yank game we have some difficult choices. This is a very good day for NY. Snell has been killed at NY. Snell was never playing on 5 days on the matches last 2 years. Tanaka has his best catcher 1.46 ERA. Tanaka with ump a little over 2 innings ERA 23.61 ERA. Tanaka is playing after a Yankee loss. Snell on 5 slightly less than a 1 ERA. First 5 under 1 unit. Closing eyes Snell ML first 5 1 unit
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Why not full game TB too?
 
Early lean Phil first game large]
Reasoning so far is Matz pretty bad pn 6+ and Ef fairly good on 5 and very good day for Phil But Ef has had problems with this team
 
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Outside SPs in Mets DH. They are 6-4 and philly 5-5 last 10. I'm not bullish on them or anything but I doubt they get swept 1-1 you grind profit
 
Gooch great over guy, not a huge fan of game 1 overs in DH but going to look at it. Not like either team has to travel after the games
 
peelpub94 said:
I'll bite on Roark and the Nats +125. He's been lights out while Weaver hasn't been so great 5.13/1.39 at home this season. Nats offense can't be held down forever.

Does Lester continue the post ASB implosion in PITT?
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Im just getting a chance to start w games now so I’m not close to having a play yet, just wanted to talk bout weaver a little bit with ya.. true he has been disappointing this year cause he impressed me so much last year maybe unfairly I expected a lot out of him this season.

That said I think there some good about him that should be pointed out. Before we get into that I gotta talk bout the home numbers being worse. It is incredibly meaningless and more than anything happenstance of opponent and/or him just having his real bad blowup games at home for no other reason than not having it. He has had several big time performances against good offenses at home too, whatever your thoughts are on weaver (and trust me mine are not all good as you will read shortly! Lol) I just want to say I truly believe there nothing to the home thing other than coincidence of when his worst starts happened they were at home, no real reason to it (god knows im worng plenty but very confident in this).

4 of his last 6 starts have quality starts and the reason for that is he has been regaining control., im sure this true for most pitchers but seems particularly true for Luke, when he walks guys he tends to get beat up, when he doesn’t he generally has very good results. In those last 6 starts he didn’t walk anyone in 3 of them. His last bad start shildt yanked him so fast (rightfully so) he didn’t have a chance to walk more which he would have. The other bad he walked 5 against the cubs in a 4 inning stinker. Other than those 2 bad starts he has only walked 2 guys in 26 innings since start of July (a 8 inning gem then 3 other 6 inning starts allowing 1 or 2 runs in each). He has actually allowed a lower line drive rate this season and way higher infield pop out rate than last years very good second half. Point is he still has the potential and has shown plenty more flashes of being that quality starter recently so I think it a mistake to assume he is just gonna be bad cause of those home numbers..

Now to the bad and why nats could give him problems. How many lefty bats do bats have in lineup? (I havnt seem lineups yet) I feel like they do have ability to stack a lot of lefties, if so that could be a problem for him. Lefties have been a real headache for weaver this year after being very good against them last season (as in last year lefties had a ops under .600 and now this year it well over .800!!) and that could be cause his changeup been far less effective. He is actually dominating righties still this year only allowing a .657 ops after allowing .793 last year!!! I’m gonna have to look at how he been vs lefties during this better stretch and how many lefties he gonna have to deal with tonight (sorry this so choppy, I’m basically making notes to myself as capping as discuss with you! Lol)..


Something else to consider is even if weaver is bad, our new manager has shown a refreshing willingness to have a quick hook (very refreshing after years of watching matheny leave guys out there to get creamed!). And since Poncedeleon gave us those huge 3 innings in relief last night Shildt has our whole stable of young fire ballers at his disposal if in fact weaver struggles and he wants to keep us in it turning it into a pen game we have the rested arms to do it!!

Far as Roark goes he has pitched some good games of late but I’ve never been a believer and cards offense is really playing well right now. Even with weavers struggles this year Roark’s advanced metrics are pretty much identical to weavers! And let’s face it nats pen isn’t at its best right now, I’d argue cards have the advantage in the late innings especially considering cards pen basically got a day off yesterday.

As I said I have a lot of work to do before deciding if there a play for me to make on either side or the total. Your post was just 1st I read and since it pertained to the team I know best I thought it be cool to start a little discussion.
 
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