Thursday, 8/16 Discussion
- Thread starter peelpub94
- Start date
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
@2daBank thanks for the well thought out response. I'm a big Weaver guy, I drafted him in both leagues but had to drop him eventually. Murph, Soto and Harp are the core lefties in the line up. Only thing Weaver has for him tonight is the line up has yet to see him, so if he has his stuff it could be tough for Nats at least first time through I guess. BOL on however you end up playing it if at all.
Weaver IS pitching. There was some speculation the injury was still lingering when the game came off the board early this AM.
Weaver IS pitching. There was some speculation the injury was still lingering when the game came off the board early this AM.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
So is he pitching? God I’m
So behind I’m reading each one of your guys post and reacting! I need to slow down and breath, maybe look through whole card and all the post before I type! Lmao
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Speaking of punch out I learned the other day that Soda Popinski of Tyson Punch Out fame was originally named Vodka Drunkensky lol
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
San Diego is 2-14 in its last 16 games at home (including being swept by the Dbacks in late July) and ranks 30th in runs scored in innings 1-5.
Clay Buchholz has a 2.18 road ERA and a 2.15 first five innings ERA and a F5 record of 9-1-1.
Clay Buchholz has a 2.18 road ERA and a 2.15 first five innings ERA and a F5 record of 9-1-1.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Nice find. I'm dipping a little on this one as well.
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
Phillies are getting the majority of bets at Sports Insights contributing Books against the Mets in both games of the doubleheader.
Game 1: 69%, -150
Game 2: 73%, -155
Game 1: 69%, -150
Game 2: 73%, -155
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
Over is 6-0 in Lesters last 6 road starts vs. Pirates.
Over is 6-1 in Lesters last 7 starts vs. Pirates.
Over is 17-8 in the last 25 meetings in Pittsburgh
Over is 6-1 in Lesters last 7 starts vs. Pirates.
Over is 17-8 in the last 25 meetings in Pittsburgh
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Ah, ok thanks.., I get so flustered when I don’t get a head start on card the night before then get home and try to do so much at one time!! Lol..
I think 1st thing I’m gonna do is see how weaver has handled lefties since start of July (when he started pitching better). Then maybe go from there. I do think cards can hit Roark and pen (what kind of ump we have in this one?)
Oh man I’d freaking hate weaver if I was you (considering you drafted him so much! Lol) he has drove me nuts all year and I don’t even have a fantasy baseball team!! Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Wow, good stuff.
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
The Action Network
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
As I continue through what has been a really successful week in my “Bet to Watch” series, I am once again back to the world of the First 5 innings.
And really, when you deal with Nationals and Cardinals games, keeping the bullpens out of it seems to be the only way to keep your sanity.
Just ask all those Washington backers who were watching the game against the Cubs Sunday night. Yikes.
St. Louis has had its fair share of blown leads and crazy finishes, too. I can’t predict they’ll both blow it, so we’ll keep things simple.
Pitching Matchup
I am really interested in the recent work of Roark, who quite frankly is kind of on a tear over the last month.
Post All-Star break, tonight’s Nationals starters is 4-0 in 4 starts with a 1.21 ERA, .213 BAA and a 27/2 K/BB ratio. It’s pretty remarkable stuff for a guy who was insanely hittable in June and early July.
Maybe he just really needed the break to work some stuff out. Also of note, this tends to happen throughout his career. The three seasons before this one, his June/July/August ERA split is 6.12/3.77/2.99. His pre-post All-Star break splits are also encouraging over that period.
Meanwhile, over that same time, Weaver has tended to struggle. Although his ERA isn’t particularly galling, opponents are hitting .346 against him in four starts since the All-Star break, and his 15/7 K/BB ratio leaves a lot to be desired, too.
Basically, he is getting into jams with regularity but somehow finding ways to get out of them, which keeps his ERA down. That’s a dangerous game.
The Bet
It might be easy to look at his most recent effort — two earned runs over six innings — and think there’s room for optimism, but that was also against the Marlins who have the most anemic offense in the league. He still allowed seven hits in that game, too.
Even with home field factored in, this number came up off by a fair amount for me. And barring some pretty extreme lineup changes or scratches, I’ll be playing the Nationals in the first 5 innings at +115, and hope Roark’s great current form continues.
The Pick: Nationals F5 +105
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
As I continue through what has been a really successful week in my “Bet to Watch” series, I am once again back to the world of the First 5 innings.
And really, when you deal with Nationals and Cardinals games, keeping the bullpens out of it seems to be the only way to keep your sanity.
Just ask all those Washington backers who were watching the game against the Cubs Sunday night. Yikes.
St. Louis has had its fair share of blown leads and crazy finishes, too. I can’t predict they’ll both blow it, so we’ll keep things simple.
Pitching Matchup
I am really interested in the recent work of Roark, who quite frankly is kind of on a tear over the last month.
Post All-Star break, tonight’s Nationals starters is 4-0 in 4 starts with a 1.21 ERA, .213 BAA and a 27/2 K/BB ratio. It’s pretty remarkable stuff for a guy who was insanely hittable in June and early July.
Maybe he just really needed the break to work some stuff out. Also of note, this tends to happen throughout his career. The three seasons before this one, his June/July/August ERA split is 6.12/3.77/2.99. His pre-post All-Star break splits are also encouraging over that period.
Meanwhile, over that same time, Weaver has tended to struggle. Although his ERA isn’t particularly galling, opponents are hitting .346 against him in four starts since the All-Star break, and his 15/7 K/BB ratio leaves a lot to be desired, too.
Basically, he is getting into jams with regularity but somehow finding ways to get out of them, which keeps his ERA down. That’s a dangerous game.
The Bet
It might be easy to look at his most recent effort — two earned runs over six innings — and think there’s room for optimism, but that was also against the Marlins who have the most anemic offense in the league. He still allowed seven hits in that game, too.
Even with home field factored in, this number came up off by a fair amount for me. And barring some pretty extreme lineup changes or scratches, I’ll be playing the Nationals in the first 5 innings at +115, and hope Roark’s great current form continues.
The Pick: Nationals F5 +105
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
Eflin was listed as starter for Phil
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
MLB's Top UNDER Starting Pitchers (prior to Thurs. games, min. 8 starts, based on Under %):
1. Jeremy Hellickson 15-3
2. Brett Anderson 9-2
3. Felix Pena 7-2
t4. Kyle Freeland 18-6
t4. Zach Davies 6-2
t4. Yu Darvish 6-2
7. Kenta Maeda 14-5
8. Madison Bumgarner 8-3
1. Jeremy Hellickson 15-3
2. Brett Anderson 9-2
3. Felix Pena 7-2
t4. Kyle Freeland 18-6
t4. Zach Davies 6-2
t4. Yu Darvish 6-2
7. Kenta Maeda 14-5
8. Madison Bumgarner 8-3
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
MLB's Top OVER Starting Pitchers (prior to Thurs. games, min. 8 starts, based on Over %):
1. Yovani Gallardo 8-1
2. Matt Moore 10-2
3. Carson Fulmer 6-2
4. Brandon McCarthy 11-4
5. Brent Suter 13-5
7. Daniel Mengden 10-4
t8. J.A. Happ 14-6
t8. Frankie Montas 7-3
1. Yovani Gallardo 8-1
2. Matt Moore 10-2
3. Carson Fulmer 6-2
4. Brandon McCarthy 11-4
5. Brent Suter 13-5
7. Daniel Mengden 10-4
t8. J.A. Happ 14-6
t8. Frankie Montas 7-3
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
what are these umps at the stadium today the 4 blind mice?
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
wow after a summit meeting now they have to check replay GTFOH
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
double and rbi simple as that
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Funny I disagree w quite a few things but ultimately came to same conclusion as I was gonna suggest to PP that if I liked the nats I would play them 1st 5 opposed to game! Lol. I find it so interesting how differently we can all go about it yet sometimes come up with same result!! Nats ff does appear to have most value of any side in this game imho. Think the total is again where my interest lies tho. Cards have entered the realm of super hot as in I prob won’t go against until they lose (not in a hurry for it to happen but I do like fading a team fresh off a streak being snapped!)..
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Cashed tho! Nice damn play! What did the rrl pay? Shoot I’d never have the balls for that when I could already get nice plus money on the ml. Still so pissed I missed start of this one! Snell in the +165ish range? Man that crazy! I’d take that dude plus anything against pretty much anyone right now.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Smart. I can't sell runs
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Why on earth wouldn’t nats have Matt Adams in lineup considering all I wrote about weaver struggles w left handed bats? Think they should give me a job!! Or at least hire someone w half a brain!! They should be stacking lefties vs weaver tonight, even more puzzling they not considering we have dog shit for lefties out of pen!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Can’t take the credit, my guy BiffT put me onto this at beginning of this season. One of best things I’ve ever done, has barely changed my win percentage at all and instead of -105 to -115 (would never go over that in previous years) I’m getting anywhere from ev to upwards of +140ish (depending how ballsy I’m feeling, lol) but with basically a avg line of +108 last I did the math (still occasionally take the -105 number)..
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I swear the fact Adams not in starting lineup just made me cut my bet in half, just don’t understand that at all!! And im pissed he still not a cardinal! I mean we play Jose Martinez all the time who can’t field a lick! Pretty sure when I looked the other day Adams numbers way better than his!!! Just one more thing to hate mike matheny for!! Lol
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
Arizona Diamondbacks (-144) at San Diego Padres
10:10 p.m. ET
The D-backs are currently getting a crazy 88% of bets, by far and away the highest of the day. Clay Buchholz will be taking on Jacob Nix, who’s making just his second career start.
Why the public loves Arizona: Arizona is first in the NL West, while San Diego is last.
At just -144, bettors don’t need to lay a huge price to bet on a far superior team taking on a 22-year-old kid. More often than not, the public will prefer Arizona’s spot regardless of the line.
10:10 p.m. ET
The D-backs are currently getting a crazy 88% of bets, by far and away the highest of the day. Clay Buchholz will be taking on Jacob Nix, who’s making just his second career start.
Why the public loves Arizona: Arizona is first in the NL West, while San Diego is last.
At just -144, bettors don’t need to lay a huge price to bet on a far superior team taking on a 22-year-old kid. More often than not, the public will prefer Arizona’s spot regardless of the line.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Was a live bet at 1-0 Rays in top of 1st... +145. Tanaka looked like he was about to engage in melt down mode where he does his pouty thing. And I'm a big Snell guy and Rays guy overall. I love what Cash does with so little every single game.
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
Philadelphia Phillies (-153) vs. New York Mets (Game 2)
7:35 p.m. ET
The Mets and Phillies have a little back-to-back action going on, and the public is right around 70% on Philly for both, with game two having the slight advantage.
Why the public loves Philly: The Mets are coming off a huge win (vs. Baltimore) and have actually won six of their past 10, but at this point of the season, most bettors have made up their mind about them.
They stink. Philly is coming off a noteworthy win of its own over the Red Sox and is throwing Zach Eflin in game two.
The 24-year-old pitcher has a solid ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9 … you name it. He’s checking off a lot of boxes, and the Mets’ moneyline just isn’t juicy enough for bettors to fade him tonight.
7:35 p.m. ET
The Mets and Phillies have a little back-to-back action going on, and the public is right around 70% on Philly for both, with game two having the slight advantage.
Why the public loves Philly: The Mets are coming off a huge win (vs. Baltimore) and have actually won six of their past 10, but at this point of the season, most bettors have made up their mind about them.
They stink. Philly is coming off a noteworthy win of its own over the Red Sox and is throwing Zach Eflin in game two.
The 24-year-old pitcher has a solid ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9 … you name it. He’s checking off a lot of boxes, and the Mets’ moneyline just isn’t juicy enough for bettors to fade him tonight.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Have double headers been getting split at a crazy high ratio lately (as in this season and possibly prior, not sure on that, mostly referring to this season)., Really no clue on the record but I’ve heard this being talked about a lot this year and most double dips I’ve seen have held true w the split.
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
Los Mets shipment of corked bats arrived last night
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