Three Loss LSU vs Alabama BIG One Thread

[twinkie13]

I figure if we had a Sparty vs Wolverine thread we likely need a thread for this game. GPS will have his wonderful SEC thread as usual, and we get Pawllll Finebaum all week.

Opened at 7.5 at one place and 6.5 at most others with Bammers as favorite. Way too many points in my estimation. Like MOT said, this year the 2 best portions of each squad will be on the field at the same time....LSU offense vs Bama defense. Best offensive line in the country vs the best defensive line in the country.

Like before, most people believe that the game rests with B Harris. Well, he has stepped up each time. This time he will have to show and prove in infested waters, taking the Tigers OTR in AL. Bama will likely stack the line and Harris will look to test the weak link of the Bama D( last weeks' INT fest vs TAMU being nice, but alas...) with his own group of big time WRs.

LSU, on the other hand, will try and continue to be the cliched "bend, but don't break" defense they have been all year. Littered with an insanely talented defensive back field as they are normally, DBU will have to step up to help LSU's abnormally pedestrian D line.....these roles have been reversed as the D line has outperformed the backfield.

Bama will line up and try and stop #7 and not let him beat them(most do). The good thing going for them is they have the line to attempt it more than other teams do. Harris has thrown the ball successfully and I expect him to do the same on Saturday in a hostile environment

Discuss please boys. :shake:

 

[M.O.T]

I actually said those are the top two units in the game, but I'm sure some will disagree. Biggest concerns for LSU heading in are injuries, communication/busted coverages in the secondary, and the weakest special teams they've had in recent memory.

 

[Schrute]

I think somewhere between 4 and 6 is the right number

 

[cubsker]

Made it 5.5 with an lsu lean so I grabbed 7. Should be a fun one

 

[GatorsLeafsBills]

I came in for the "The Big One" thread and thought this was about Florida/Vanderbilt. Guess i was wrong

 

[CrimsonK]

Not sure why anyone would be in a hurry to bet a juiced 7 on Bama right now but seems they are still taking money. Looks like 5dimes has a +7.5 at -120, would think grabbing that there would be a chance to take Bama in a few days at 5 or less and get a shot to scoop the pot.

There aren't many matchups this year where I prefer the Tide QB but this is one of them. I've yet to see anything from Harris that leads me to believe he has what it takes to put together 4 quarters of his best football and get it done. Bama did well against Fournette last season holding him to 79 yards on 21 carries and a long of 13. Neither team could run on the other last year, LSU 56 for 183 and 0 TD, Bama 29 for 106 and 0 TD. Sims had a QBR of 40 something and that was worlds better than Jennings who I'm sure left the home fans asking where Jordan Jefferson had gone. Anytime you are relying on your run game to beat Bama, best RB and terrific OL or not, I just don't think you can feel good about that. I think LSU defense is prob better than their PPG allowed indicate, but it's a step back for them this season just as the Bama OL is one of the worst they've had in Saban's tenure. I think oddsmakers will make a mistake on the total and post a dumb total in the high 40's when I think it's more likely this one plays in the twenties or thirties. Each year one offense seems to be pretty good but it never matters in this game - the winner has scored 20, 38, 21, 21, 9 the past 5 games and LSU hasn't scored 20 on Bama since 2010. This Bama defense resembles the '11 and '09 groups which held LSU to 0,9,15 points (Played 3 times in two seasons cause of BCSNCG) and yardage outputs of 92, 239, 253. Now LSU is without a doubt better offensively than they've been; I'm just not buying the QB being that good yet, although he values the football more than most of the guys LSU had under center the past 5+ seasons. A good OL and running back are pretty much the norm for this game on both sides. Strength on strength, grown man football, just bet the under, IMO.

 

[CrimsonK]

Haven't fact checked this but just read on Bama board in regards to respective opponent rankings:

Bama opponents total defensive rankings
1. Wisconsin #3
2. Georgia #20
3. Ole Miss #35
4. Arkansas #62
5. Texas A&M #65
6. Tennessee #70
7. MTSU #72
8. ULM #99

Total Average defense faced = 53.25

LSU opponents total defensive rankings
1. Florida #15
2. MSU #58
3. Syracuse #87
4. South Carolina #96
5. Western KY #100
6. Auburn #107
7. Eastern Mich #121

Total Average defense faced = 83.43

LSU Total offense #28
Bama total offense #49


LSU total defense #18
Bama total defense #4

Bama total offenses faced
1. Ole Miss #11
2. Texas A&M #44
3. Tennessee #46
4. MTSU #41
5. Arkansas #33
6. Georgia #66
7. Wisconsin #62
8. ULM #116

Total Average offense Bama faced = 52

LSU average offenses faced
1. Western KY #10
2. MSU #39
3. Eastern Michigan #57
4. Florida #83
5. Auburn #89
6. South Carolina #92
7. Syracuse #115
Total average offense faced = 69.28

 

[CrimsonK]

[video=youtube;P-59rov_vQM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-59rov_vQM[/video]

:cigarguy:

 

[CrimsonK]

[video=youtube;d3u7SNsAE6E]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3u7SNsAE6E[/video]

:cheers3:

 

[HUNT]

I like this thread

 

[Alan Tongue]

What each team averages vs the averages of their opponents

[TABLE="width: 391"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] ALA[/TD]
[TD] Opp Avg[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] LSU[/TD]
[TD] Opp Avg[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Off YPC[/TD]
[TD] 4.53[/TD]
[TD] 3.97[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 6.66[/TD]
[TD] 4.54[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Off RYPG[/TD]
[TD] 188.50[/TD]
[TD] 153.15[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 309.10[/TD]
[TD] 179.05[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Def YPC[/TD]
[TD] 2.60[/TD]
[TD] 4.40[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 3.25[/TD]
[TD] 4.58[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Def RYPG[/TD]
[TD] 78.50[/TD]
[TD] 166.69[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 93.70[/TD]
[TD] 171.70[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Off Pass %[/TD]
[TD] 65.50[/TD]
[TD] 57.50[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 58.10[/TD]
[TD] 61.10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]YPA[/TD]
[TD] 7.07[/TD]
[TD] 6.75[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 8.51[/TD]
[TD] 7.57[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pas YPG[/TD]
[TD] 233.40[/TD]
[TD] 209.65[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 159.60[/TD]
[TD] 271.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Off Pass %[/TD]
[TD] 51.40[/TD]
[TD] 57.50[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 57.00[/TD]
[TD] 61.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]YPA[/TD]
[TD] 5.48[/TD]
[TD] 7.62[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 6.03[/TD]
[TD] 7.55[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pas YPG[/TD]
[TD] 243.40[/TD]
[TD] 258.79[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 276.90[/TD]
[TD] 233.19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Off 1D[/TD]
[TD] 22.25[/TD]
[TD] 14.63[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 21.29[/TD]
[TD] 21.09[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Def 1D[/TD]
[TD] 18.75[/TD]
[TD] 21.74[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 18.57[/TD]
[TD] 20.07[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[M.O.T]

There aren't many matchups this year where I prefer the Tide QB but this is one of them.

Interesting. This is the first time in a while I think LSU has the better QB going into this game. It may not mean anything come Saturday since he'll be facing a much better defense than Coker, or he may go in the tank in what will be his first road start in this kind of big situation. But once you get past the stats that are driven by number of attempts he isn't nearly as bad as has been made out, and has actually been solid to good. Maybe that's because he wasn't asked to do much early, and still isn't asked to do a whole lot, but the plan they've had and how they've brought him along has him in about as good of a spot as could be expected at this point.

 

[Schrute]

Interesting. This is the first time in a while I think LSU has the better QB going into this game. It may not mean anything come Saturday since he'll be facing a much better defense than Coker, or he may go in the tank in what will be his first road start in this kind of big situation. But once you get past the stats that are driven by number of attempts he isn't nearly as bad as has been made out, and has actually been solid to good. Maybe that's because he wasn't asked to do much early, and still isn't asked to do a whole lot, but the plan they've had and how they've brought him along has him in about as good of a spot as could be expected at this point.

So you think Treon is better than Coker?

 

[Frank Costanza]

Just noticed that this is a night kick (7PM central). CBS typically does this once / year I think with an especially big game.

 

[M.O.T]

So you think Treon is better than Coker?

Sorry, by "this game" I meant the LSU - Alabama matchup specifically.

 

[gps_3]

Just noticed that this is a night kick (7PM central). CBS typically does this once / year I think with an especially big game.

CBS gets 2 double header weekends a year. One is a 230/700 CST and the other is a 1100/230. They have to choose the weekends before the season starts. They have chosen LSU/Alabama as their night game every year since they botched it in 2011 and had to make a ton of concessions to ESPN to broadcast the 9-6 game at night. Next week is the other CBS doubleheader

 

[KJ]

Looking forward to this one more than any since the field goal fest. It's also refreshing that CBS does this, that 2011 ridiculousness of having ESPN cameras in the bus on the way to the stadium after a week of discussing what everyone had for lunch has left a sour taste in my mouth for a few years. Finally getting past that.

 

[gps_3]

Some thoughts from my perspective on Alabama:

I think the matchup that decides this game is the Alabama offense vs the LSU defense. Specifically, the Alabama OL vs the LSU front 7. Fournette will get some yards, but I expect LSU to have their worst offensive output of the season. Alabama's OL has been spotty at best this season, and starting RT Dominick Jackson is highly questionable to play after having a minor surgical procedure on his ankle last week. Cam Robinson had the same procedure last year, also during the bye week before LSU, and played, but I'm not counting on Jackson to play at this point. Not sure it makes a huge difference because I don't think he's all that great, but for an OL that has massive communication issues at times, this can't be a good thing. The extra week to prepare and practice is a huge benefit though.

First down has been a huge problem for Alabama's offense. Way too many negative plays and pre-snap penalties. The analysts love to point to Alabama's terrible 3rd down conversion %, and it is awful, but is mainly a product of starting out 1st and 15, or 2 and 15 after a poorly executed WR screen. When Alabama stays ahead of the chains, they score.

Kicking game has stabilized somewhat with JK Scott shaking off the early sophomore slump and has been hitting moon shots regularly again, and Griffith has made his last several, although they have all been essentially XP distance. Coverage and return teams have had plenty of issues all season, and really special teams as a whole has been pretty poor under Saban. In this game, and the rest of the season, I would be happy if every kickoff, kicking and receiving, resulted in a touchback. Likewise, I'm fine with us fair catching or not returning every punt from here on out. If this game comes down to Alabama having to make a play in the kicking game, outside of flipping the field on a punt, it will give me ulcers.

Another injury to keep an eye on is Eddie Jackson. Leads the SEC in INT. Hurt against UT, came back in but wasn't 100% by any stretch.

 

[Frank Costanza]

CBS gets 2 double header weekends a year. One is a 230/700 CST and the other is a 1100/230. They have to choose the weekends before the season starts. They have chosen LSU/Alabama as their night game every year since they botched it in 2011 and had to make a ton of concessions to ESPN to broadcast the 9-6 game at night. Next week is the other CBS doubleheader

Thanks. Appreciate this, as I was wondering / trying to recall exactly how it worked.

 

[CrimsonK]

Interesting. This is the first time in a while I think LSU has the better QB going into this game. It may not mean anything come Saturday since he'll be facing a much better defense than Coker, or he may go in the tank in what will be his first road start in this kind of big situation. But once you get past the stats that are driven by number of attempts he isn't nearly as bad as has been made out, and has actually been solid to good. Maybe that's because he wasn't asked to do much early, and still isn't asked to do a whole lot, but the plan they've had and how they've brought him along has him in about as good of a spot as could be expected at this point.

Most plays I see Harris connecting on seem to be big plays where it's kinda run to the impala and turn around type stuff while he's on the move. It's actually funny Dwight mentioned treon because both qb remind me a lot of each other. Bama has shown susceptibility to big plays like that with a mobile guy so that could certainly be in the fold. I actually see that as being more likely than him sticking his foot in the ground and roping in 15-20 yard crossing routes consistently. I think he's going to be asked to do a lot more than he has. He hit the big Hail Mary throw against Florida to end the half and I feel like those plays are where he picks up tons of yardage cause he isn't a very accurate passer from what I've seen and I think that's dangerous when that 7 figga jigga Minkah Fitzy Fitz-Peezy is lurking.

Coker had a really good game against UT, I thought. Really quiet 21/27 or something like that and threw one bad ball that got picked. I think he can go 14/24 for 175 with 0/0 and Bama can win where as I don't see Harris having that luxury.

 

[Judge Smails]

CBS gets 2 double header weekends a year. One is a 230/700 CST and the other is a 1100/230. They have to choose the weekends before the season starts. They have chosen LSU/Alabama as their night game every year since they botched it in 2011 and had to make a ton of concessions to ESPN to broadcast the 9-6 game at night. Next week is the other CBS doubleheader

<header class="tweet-header" style="color: rgb(41, 47, 51); font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.4294px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">CBS Sports CFB @CBSSportsCFB
</header>.@SEConCBS doubleheader announced for Nov. 14: Auburn-UGA at 12, either Miss St.-Alabama or Arkansas-LSU at 3:30

 

[Schrute]

Sorry, by "this game" I meant the LSU - Alabama matchup specifically.

I re-read your post and I'm the one who misinterpreted it...my bad

 

[CrimsonK]

Total opened at 54, pretty sure it was dyslexic moment and they meant 45.

 

[twinkie13]

Interesting. This is the first time in a while I think LSU has the better QB going into this game. It may not mean anything come Saturday since he'll be facing a much better defense than Coker, or he may go in the tank in what will be his first road start in this kind of big situation. But once you get past the stats that are driven by number of attempts he isn't nearly as bad as has been made out, and has actually been solid to good. Maybe that's because he wasn't asked to do much early, and still isn't asked to do a whole lot, but the plan they've had and how they've brought him along has him in about as good of a spot as could be expected at this point.

I disagree with him also(big surprise lol). Bama would be unwise to underestimate Harris here......I also think the O line is better this year and Fournette is also a year older and a better back than he was last year.

I think many might be underestimating LSU offense here....I know, it sounds crazy

 

[twinkie13]

Total opened at 54, pretty sure it was dyslexic moment and they meant 45.

I think they respect LSU offense and don't think much of LSU defense

my 2 cents

 

[CrimsonK]

I think they respect LSU offense and don't think much of LSU defense

my 2 cents

Ya, I get it. They've made bad totals on Bama games all year so I'm not super surprised but had a good chuckle when I saw it. This game goes to OT just about every other year and doesn't get to 50 lol. I'll say this, I think this game plays a lot closer to 9-6 than 30-24.

 

[Gyno]

Total opened at 54, pretty sure it was dyslexic moment and they meant 45.

I am going to play first half under. Think both teams are going to feel each other out.

.

 

[CrimsonK]

View attachment 39732

 

[Schrute]

lol that pic of Les that says "Foreign Who" is fucking great

 

[M.O.T]

Got caught up at work, didn't mean to post and run yesterday. This was an article from profootballfocus prior to week 8. Again, this will be the best defense he has faced and in an entirely different situation so this won't necessarily mean anything at 7:00 Saturday, but interesting numbers nonetheless. The theme all week going into the Florida game was that LSU's offense would be exposed because Florida could stop the run with numbers if necessary, lock up their receivers, bring pressure on 3rd down, and Harris wouldn't be able to handle it. The results were 221 yards rushing, 202 passing at 10.6 per attempt, 7.1 yards per play total, and no sacks allowed. Not that I believe any of those numbers will be duplicated this week, but the output is probably going to be a little better than expected.

LSU’S BRANDON HARRIS IS TOP-GRADED QB IN SEC
BEN STOCKWELL
2 WEEKS AGO


The best player on the LSU Tigers is Leonard Fournette, and their star running back proved that once again on Saturday against the Florida Gators, keeping the offense churning and moving forward with every powerful carry into the teeth of another SEC defense.

Much as Fournette is rightly getting the headlines and the Heisman hype, he is not the only Tiger playing well in the LSU backfield. In fact, a significant part of LSU’s success this season has been due to the strong play of quarterback Brandon Harris, who earned his third positive grade in the last four games against Florida with his best game grade of the season so far.

The offense is not engineered for Harris to run the show — why would it be when you have Fournette to hand the ball to 20-plus times per game? However, Harris stands as our only positively graded passer in the SEC after Week 7, managing the passing game well and exploiting the space in the running game that is left as defenses adjust to Fournette’s presence. He currently ranks in the top 20 of our QB grades.

Harris has yet to throw an interception this season, and has not been relying on luck, either; he has produced just three turnover-worthy plays this season, compared to nine big-time throws. Translation: The LSU signal-caller is limiting mistakes and hitting on throws down the field. That’s exactly the kind of performance you want to pair with a dominant ground game.

The strength of Harris’ passing this season has been working the middle of the field between the numbers on passes of 10 or more yards, working in behind the safeties and linebackers who have moved up in the box to defend Fournette’s runs. Harris has completed 13 of 26 passes in this range for 395 yards, earning a +5.5 PFF passing grade on these throws. Compare that to SEC West rival Jake Coker (who gets to work off of star Alabama RB Derrick Henry’s ground attack), who has gone 13-of-34 for 318 yards on those throws, but has tossed five interceptions as well, earning a -1.2 grade (although Coker has been even worse on throws closer to the line of scrimmage).

On Nov. 7 we will get to see LSU and Alabama go head to head in what could well prove to be the decisive game in the SEC West, potentially paving the way for a playoff bid for the victor. Both teams boast a lead running back who brings the power to drive the running game and a defense to match any offense physically, but right now the edge in this matchup goes to LSU thanks to the extra dimension that Harris brings to the offense. The risk-free play of Harris that doesn’t come at the expense of a lack of big plays in the passing game makes LSU the most well-rounded team in the SEC right now, in a few weeks we’ll see if he can maintain that and deliver when it counts to set LSU on a path for the Georgia Dome and beyond.

 

[CrimsonK]

Thanks for posting that. I seemed to think he would struggle on the very routes and throws that this article states that he is actually really good at doing. I think it will be a lot tougher sledding for a lot of reasons, particularly that Bama won't have to load the box necessarily but will just play base and some nickel in passing downs so may be a bit of a different look where as prob just about every other team other than UF, purely from a personnel standpoint, have to load the box and leave that part of the field available with the bodies sucked down inside. Now if Bama can't stop LF out of base sets and can't play traditional depth and spacing with their safeties, which I think they will be able to, then I think Harris will have those holes and pockets to throw into. If LF and this guy have big games and win, tip of the cap from me, very likely the best team in the nation and should win a title. Not that I think Bama is the dominant team they've been in years past and the standard of CFB this year but I think the matchups for both guys are just totally not in their favor so if they get it done here you've got something special.

 

[twinkie13]

Thanks for posting that. I seemed to think he would struggle on the very routes and throws that this article states that he is actually really good at doing. I think it will be a lot tougher sledding for a lot of reasons, particularly that Bama won't have to load the box necessarily but will just play base and some nickel in passing downs so may be a bit of a different look where as prob just about every other team other than UF, purely from a personnel standpoint, have to load the box and leave that part of the field available with the bodies sucked down inside. Now if Bama can't stop LF out of base sets and can't play traditional depth and spacing with their safeties, which I think they will be able to, then I think Harris will have those holes and pockets to throw into. If LF and this guy have big games and win, tip of the cap from me, very likely the best team in the nation and should win a title. Not that I think Bama is the dominant team they've been in years past and the standard of CFB this year but I think the matchups for both guys are just totally not in their favor so if they get it done here you've got something special.

I really think they do. I see Harris hitting seams and really testing these corners deep too.

 

[M.O.T]

Agree on Alabama not loading up the front. Most LSU fans fall into the "OMG Bama gunna put 9 in the box to take away the run and Miles won't let Harris throw the ball so we gunna loooze" trap when in reality it's never that extreme. Alabama stops the run because they're fucking good, not because they overload everyone. If you're not an all out spread or air raid type team the best way to beat his defenses is to find a way to run the ball and stick with it, as tough as it may be at times. Going in with the mindset that you're going to throw 30-35 times just out of principle, when it isn't what you do best, is exactly what Alabama wants.

 

[CrimsonK]

Pretty good read from two Bama writers who do a good job evaluating and covering the team:

--BOL sfaff members Travis Reier and Charlie Potter review Alabama's bye week and look ahead to LSU.

Travis Reier: With the Crimson Tide fresh from fall break and ready to focus on LSU, what were two areas of this team that needed the bye the most?

CP: The first has to obviously be a much-needed break, right? This team has endured eight straight weeks of games, including a brutal month of October, without an off week. That takes a toll on anybody, and you could see that toll start to set in in the Tennessee game as players seemed a little sluggish at times. Heck, even in the Texas A&M game we saw some cramping. Guys are dinged up and needed that extra week to get their legs back underneath them. So that has to be what Alabama needed the most, to me.

I think another area would just be working on fundamentals. The Crimson Tide didn’t implement much of its LSU game plan last week, if any of it, but chose to solely focus on getting healthy and cleaning up its own mistakes. And I think that’s a wise move. We’ve seen several uncharacteristic mistakes from a Nick Saban-coached team this season in terms of careless penalties or missed assignments so working to clean those up will benefit it in the long run.

TR: For me, the offensive line has to rank at the top of the list. Not only from a health-standpoint due to the things Cameron Robinson, Ryan Kelly and Dominick Jacksonhave been dealing with, but also in terms of cleaning up mistakes. You kind of expect guys to get beat on occasion. That's going to happen in the SEC. It's the blown assignments and penalties eight games into the season that are most concerning.

I'd also point to the front seven of the defense. Not that they've shown major signs of slipping, but I do think we saw some fatigue show up late in the Tennessee game. There's a lot of quality depth there, but even those guys can use a light week to get their legs fully back. With Leonard Fournette coming to town, they're definitely going to need them.

So, yeah, giving the big guys on both lines of scrimmage some time to heal and rest up was important. Looking ahead to the Tigers, what are two areas that you think will go a long way in determining this week's winner?

CP: I think the two are, which team can stop the run and which team can effectively move the football through the air? We both know how much these two teams lean on their run games, especially LSU, and conversely, both teams are extremely sound when it comes to shutting down opponents’ ground games. So which one can do the best job of that Saturday? Fournette is the nation’s leading rusher and Alabama has one of the toughest defensive fronts to run against, and the same can be essentially said forDerrick Henry and the Tigers’ defense. If one – or both – of the rushing attacks is stifled, the pass becomes that much more important. Can Jacob Coker or Brandon Harris win the game if asked to do so? That’ll be the interesting thing to watch.

TR: It's obviously going to start up front on both sides of the ball. With Fournette dominating the spotlight, I don't think LSU's offensive line gets enough credit. I haven't seen a better run-blocking group in all of college football. Fournette is great but I've been amazed by how easily he's reached the second level on a lot of his runs.

Meanwhile, Alabama's offensive line hasn't reached a level of consistency most of us thought it would by this point in the season. LSU doesn't have that first-round pick bell cow up front that it's had in the past, but defensive tackle Davon Godchaux (six tackles for loss) is plenty good enough and Kendall Beckwith is as good against the run as any middle linebacker UA will see this season.

With a struggle up front expected, the quarterbacks will eventually need to make some plays. LSU's Harris has kept the interception column clean so far this season, but he's also attempted the fewest passes of any starting quarterback in the SEC.

As for Coker, it seems as if there's going to be a turnover or two from him just about every week, especially at home. Looking at the SEC defensive rankings, LSU is middle of the pack in both sacks and interceptions, while Alabama ranks first in both. Both teams will look to run the ball but when they go to the air, the matchup may favor Alabama on both sides of the ball.

How about an area that isn't being talked about that will play a large role in the outcome?

CP: For me, it’s how does Alabama’s offensive line keep pressure off Coker? LSU’s pass rush doesn’t lead the conference. The Tigers have recorded 18 sacks in seven games (2.57 sacks per game), but that doesn’t mean they won’t see success this Saturday. After all, Tennessee’s front seven had produced even less sacks before facing the Crimson Tide but walked out of Bryant-Denny Stadium with five more sacks than it entered the contest with. If UA’s offensive line can keep Coker’s jersey clean, it will probably mean Alabama is ahead on the scoreboard.

TR: It's sort of in line with your thought, but I'll go with the Alabama offense avoiding negative plays in general. Not just tackles for loss and sacks, but penalties, too.

Again, both teams would like to lean on their offensive most valuable players. For LSU, that's Fournette. For Alabama, it's Henry. The more they can stay out of second-and-long, the more they'll be able to do that. The first team that gets too far away from where it's bread is buttered probably won't like how things play out.

These teams are similar as far as tackles for loss go. They also rank 12th (UA) and 13th (LSU) in the SEC in penalties. In other words, in what will likely be another grinder in this series, I'm thinking the team that screws up less wins. Earth-shattering analysis, I know, but games between these two usually aren't all that hard to figure out.

So, heading into the week, how do you rank Alabama's injuries in terms of priority?

CP: Dominick Jackson (ankle) has played better and better every week this season and there is not much depth at the offensive tackle position behind him, so he’s No. 1. Like I said, keeping pressure of Coker will be key for the Crimson Tide in this game. He did not practice during the bye week, and I’m not sure if we see him on the field this afternoon. Saban said it is the same injury that Cameron Robinson sustained against Tennessee last season, and Robinson was able to suit up and start against LSU following last year’s bye week. For Alabama, a repeat performance would be the best possible outcome.

Then there’s defensive backs Eddie Jackson (knee) and Ronnie Harrison (ankle). Jackson practiced every day last week, although he was somewhat limited. Harrison didn’t see the field, but Saban insinuated that he would not be held out long so giving him the bye week off was not a surprise.

But in terms of priority, Jackson’s health is more important to Saturday’s contest because of the defensive formations Alabama will utilize against a run-heavy Tiger offense. With Harrison being the money, his number might not be called as much as it was against teams like Texas A&M. You obviously still want him to see and speedy recovery and be able to play, though, being as he is the No. 3 safety for the Crimson Tide.

TR: Pretty much with you there. Seeing as how his injury resulted in a "procedure" being performed, it has to be Dominick Jackson followed by the defensive backs. More so than what Jackson brings to the table as individual talent, a unit that hasn't exactly been on the same page at times this season doesn't need to break in a new starter.

If it happens, though, having a veteran like Brandon Greene around to step in could prove valuable. Instead of shuffling things around, they might be able to plug and play Greene.

From there, you move on to Eddie Jackson and Harrison. Ideally, both will be ready to go, but if it comes to one or the other, I've got to go with Jackson ahead of Harrison. As you touched on, that stems from Jackson being an every down guy, while Harrison's role on defense is pretty much limited to the dime package.

It wouldn't be an LSU-Alabama game without a ton of NFL talent on the field. With that, what is the one one-on-one matchup you're looking forward to the most?

CP: I’m not going to shy away from prolific contact here. I can’t wait to see Fournette face Reggie Ragland – and Reuben Foster. All eyes will be on No. 7 when he faces Alabama’s defense, and he will likely meet Nos. 19 and 10 most of the night. This is the kind of game that can give a player a boost in its draft stock with an eye-opening performance.

TR: With Alabama expected to be in its base defense for much of the game, I'm going with Alabama nose tackle Daron Payne on LSU center Ethan Pocic. We're talking about a powerful true freshman working on the nose against one of the nation's best interior offensive linemen in Pocic.

For LSU to really get its running game going, it will need to get movement on Payne. Not with two guys, either. If Pocic can't get it done without the help of a double team, Fournette won't have the space he's had in previous games this season.

 

[twinkie13]

yea I mean we keep dancing around it. It comes down to do you think B Harris can go in to BD and do enough to win?

I do

 

[cubsker]

I never feel like bama home field bothers lsu at all

 

[gps_3]

Agree on Alabama not loading up the front. Most LSU fans fall into the "OMG Bama gunna put 9 in the box to take away the run and Miles won't let Harris throw the ball so we gunna loooze" trap when in reality it's never that extreme. Alabama stops the run because they're fucking good, not because they overload everyone. If you're not an all out spread or air raid type team the best way to beat his defenses is to find a way to run the ball and stick with it, as tough as it may be at times. Going in with the mindset that you're going to throw 30-35 times just out of principle, when it isn't what you do best, is exactly what Alabama wants.

There was a stat in recent years where Alabama was something like 30-0 when the opposing team had more than 25 pass attempts. Without looking it up, I assume either ole miss this year or maybe Ohio St last year may have won with more than 25 pass attempts. Bottom line, if you are one dimensional on offense against Alabama, you're going to lose

 

[gps_3]

I never feel like bama home field bothers lsu at all

HFA hasn't mattered in this series overall. Alabama went 30 years without losing in Baton Rouge

 

[Alan Tongue]

yea I mean we keep dancing around it. It comes down to do you think B Harris can go in to BD and do enough to win?

I do

I think it comes to who can stop the big plays. Fournette will have some big runs, but how many, for how long and where will they end. he can only be contained for so long. Les has to play to their strengths

 

[twinkie13]

I never feel like bama home field bothers lsu at all

agree

and agree with gps

Altho I feel like the scares Bama had in BR, LSU was less talented at that point in time unlike this year

and I mean since the BCS game

 

[twinkie13]

There will be a long list of recruits at this weekend’s showdown in Tuscaloosa between No. 2 LSU and No. 4 Alabama.
From Louisiana prospects from 2016 to 2018 to some of the top targets across the Southeast, it’s a lengthy list of visitors that will rival any guest list in the SEC this season.
Here’s the rundown on which LSU targets are expected in Bryant Denny Stadium on Saturday night to watch the Tigers and the Tide.
[h=2]The Commitments[/h]LSU is still recruiting two players currently committed to Alabama, and both will be in attendance for the game this weekend in 2016 defensive tackle Raekwon Davis and 2018 offensive tackle Dare Rosenthal.
Davis is a four-star prospect out of Mississippi who the LSU staff has been recruiting hard the past year, even hosting him twice for visits during the offseason with an official visit still to come. Rosenthal, a Louisiana native and current high school sophomore, jumped on an early offer from the Tide, but the Tigers have since also offered him a scholarship and have begun recruiting him for the 2018 class.
Alabama will host four recruits of note to LSU fans who happen to be committed to other schools - including one Tiger pledge.
LSU commitment Donavaughn Campbell will make the trip from Ponchatoula to Tuscaloosa for the game. He’s been recruited hard by both schools, but has maintained that he’s solid to the Tigers. Alabama will also host Auburn defensive line commitment Marlon Davidson, who visited LSU for the win over Florida. The Tide will also host a pair of Louisiana underclassmen in 2017 quarterback Lowell Narcisse and 2017 athlete Devonta Smith. Narcisse is committed to Auburn, while Smith gave an early pledge to Georgia. Both continue to be recruited by LSU’s staff.
[h=2]Uncommitted Prospects[/h]The list of uncommitted recruits in town for the game who are still being recruited by both teams is a lengthy one.
Five-star offensive tackle Gregory Little will be in for a visit, with his decision set to be announced the following weekend. Little recently made an official visit to LSU.
Louisiana’s No. 1 prospect, Rashard Lawrence, will be in the stands after being heavily recruited by both schools throughout his recruitment.
Alabama linebackers Ben Davis and Lyndell Wilson will both make the trip, with both players set to make official visits to LSU next weekend for the Arkansas game, meaning they will see the Tigers in action two weeks in a row. Wilson visited LSU for the win over Florida last month.
Oluwole Betiku, a five-star and one of the nation’s top defensive ends, will make the trip from California.
Georgia’s Nigel Warror, the nation’s No. 4 safety prospect, is on the visitor list, as is Mississippi’s top prospect in defensive end Jeffery Simmons. Both have offers from LSU and Alabama.
A number of Louisiana natives from the 2016 class will be in attendance in four-star wide receiver Drake Davis, four-star cornerback Shyheim Carter, four-star wide receiver Mykel Jones and four-star running back Devin White. All four guys have LSU offers and have visited Baton Rouge for the game against Florida.
For the 2017 class, the nation’s No. 1 prospect and Baton Rouge native Dylan Moses will be in Tuscaloosa for the game. Alabama and LSU have been the two teams that have recruited Moses the hardest so far.
Deangelo Gibbs, the nation’s No. 1 cornerback prospect, will be in attendance from Georgia, as will fellow Peach State native and outside linebacker Jaden Hunter, Alabama linebacker Will Ignont (who has made multiple LSU visits) and Texas linebacker Anthony Hines. All four are Top 150 prospects for the 2017 class.
Two more Louisiana prospects that will make the drive to Alabama for the game are U-High offensive tackle Adrian Ealy, who holds an LSU offer, and West Monroe defensive end Dennis Collins.
Tank Jenkins, a 2018 offensive line prospect who holds offers from both schools, will see the Tigers in action after driving to Baton Rouge to see LSU’s win over Florida.

 

[twinkie13]

I will throw it here too

 

[Lareux]

yea I mean we keep dancing around it. It comes down to do you think B Harris can go in to BD and do enough to win?

I do

Shocker. Water is wet too Twinkie.

 

[twinkie13]

Shocker. Water is wet too Twinkie.

yea man, I figure we would all agree on Harris:shake:

 

[Timh]

[TABLE="width: 590"]
<colgroup><col span="2"><col><col><col span="2"><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]YDS/Play[/TD]
[TD]YD/Play All[/TD]
[TD]Yds/Rush[/TD]
[TD]Yd/Rush All[/TD]
[TD]YD/Pass Att[/TD]
[TD]YD/PA All[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ALA[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LSU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[gps_3]

Per Dandy Don:

LSU offense vs. Alabama defense
The test LSU’s rushing attack will face this week is enormous. Some are calling this Alabama defensive line one of the best Nick Saban has ever had, and it appears to be steadily improving. Ever since Alabama allowed 43 points to Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide have allowed just 12.2 points per game. But if there’s a team that can run the football and punch the ball into the end zone against the Tide, it’s the LSU Tigers. As of late, the Tigers have shown versatility within their offense, making big plays in the passing game and converting third downs with a mobile quarterback. Combine that with LSU’s steamrolling rushing attack, and the Tigers are one of the toughest teams to stop in the country. This matchup is pure strength vs. strength. Because of how great Leonard Fournette and this LSU offensive line are, the Tigers will muscle around Alabama at times, but in that same vein, Alabama will create negative plays. Tiger fans should watch out for Reggie Ragland, who many are calling the SEC defensive player of the year. It’s always easy to find Ragland on the field, because he shows up wherever the ball is. It’s no coincidence he leads Alabama with 71 tackles on the season. If the Crimson Tide limit LSU’s big play ability (the Tigers have had at least one play go for 50 yards or more in every game since the Mississippi State opener), Alabama could edge out LSU in this category. But as Brandon Harris, Fournette and these receivers have proven, that’s much easier said than done.
Slight Advantage LSU
LSU defense vs. Alabama offense
Much like Fournette, Alabama’s Derrick Henry (6-3, 242) is a load at running back. Alabama’s key to offensive success this season has been using Henry like a sledgehammer, pounding defenses until they weaken them into submission, and then exploding for big plays. The good news is that LSU has one of the best rushing defenses in the country, limiting opponents to 94 yards per game on the ground. The Tigers’ front four, combined with the linebacker play (especially Kendell Beckwith and Deion Jones), has set LSU up for success week after week. And while the running attack is certainly Alabama’s bread and butter, Jake Coker, like Harris, has proven more than capable of affecting the game with his arm from the pocket. This is where LSU fans should have reason for concern. In recent weeks, the Tigers have had multiple breakdowns in coverage, almost all of which resulted from communication issues. With both Jalen Mills and TréDavious White back on the field this week, I look for the Tigers to be much improved in this regard. Still, with LSU’s recent lapses on defense and Alabama’s fresh crop of wide receivers proving to be playmakers (freshman Calvin Ridley can break the game open by getting behind LSU’s secondary), the edge has to be given to the Crimson Tide in this matchup.
Advantage Alabama
Special Teams
While special teams is getting a little bit better each week for the Tigers, it has been nowhere near good enough. Likewise, Alabama has had issues on special teams. What’s funny is that Jamie Keehn and J.K. Scott were the two best punters in the conference last season, but both rank toward the middle or bottom of the pack in punting yard average this season. An area the Tigers hold a significant advantage in is field goal kicking. Enough hasn’t been said about Trent Domingue – a Tiger kicker who won the job before the season and has never looked back. Domingue is a perfect 9-for-9 this season. Meanwhile, Alabama’s Adam Griffith has missed on six of his 16 attempts. In a game that will surely turn into a defensive struggle, field goal kicking could be extremely important, and for this reason I give LSU a slight advantage in this phase of the game. Oh, and I just have a feeling LSU speedster Donté Jackson is due for a big return.
Slight advantage LSU
Intangibles
Usually playing on one’s home field is a huge advantage, but Alabama hasn’t played especially well at home this season, and in recent years LSU has played Alabama better on the road than in Tiger Stadium. Interestingly, the home team hasn’t fared very well in this series in the last 19 years. Since 1996, the home team in the series has won just seven times in 19 tries (LSU won four of the seven). Another factor I see as being in the Tigers’ favor is that LSU has lost two of the last three games to the Tide after leading late in the game, so you know they’ll be as determined as can be to not let that happen again. Also, LSU doesn’t have a player on its team who has experienced a victory over Alabama, so that will surely be a motivating factor as well. Maybe I’m just seeing things through purple and gold glasses, but I give the intangibles advantage to LSU.
Advantage LSU

 

[CrimsonK]

Forecasted 90% rain at game time with temps in the low 50's. Bummer, hope it passes. Wish we had the weather from 4 years ago for the GOC.

 

[gps_3]

Forecasted 90% rain at game time with temps in the low 50's. Bummer, hope it passes. Wish we had the weather from 4 years ago for the GOC.

Both teams have experience playing in heavy rain this year

 

[CrimsonK]

Total down to 47.5 some places, still too high, IMO. Wouldn't surprise me to tick down another FG by close. 54, lol

 

[nbafan88]

70% on LSU right now