Think this will work???

[Geezy]

ok.. heres what i got.

2 team ML parlay on LSU+205 and Texas +205
250 to win 2057.

since one is a morning game and one is a evening game I put

Oklahoma -245
500 to win 204

So here it is. Texas win and i will lose 500 but still have a chance to hit the parlay and i can hedge another 500 on Florida to win 204 again. If oklahoma wins then i lose the parlay and win 204.

Worst case senario i lose 92 dollars. Best case scenario i win 1056.

What do you think? Does this make sense?

 

[TroyStacks]

indeed but you need OU

 

[hoopsstar22]

If it were this easy, we'd all be millionaires, and the books would be broke.

If Texas wins, you lose $500 of the $2057, which leaves $1557.

Then you bet $500 more on Florida. If LSU wins, you lose $500 from the parlay payout, and that leaves you with $1057.

But if Florida wins, you not only lost the $250 cost of the parlay, you also lose the $500 bet you made on Oklahoma, which leaves you -$750 on the day.

So you have 3 outcomes.

Oklahoma wins, you lose $96
Texas wins, LSU loses you lose $750
Texas Wins, LSU wins you win $1057

This essentially leaves you with a LSU ML of +140, not counting the decrease of value caused by an Oklahoma win.

Sound like a good idea now?

 

[hoopsstar22]

I just hope you didn't already lock this in.

 

[Geezy]

Hoops..
I get what you saying but this what i dont understand.

If texas wins then i still can win the parlay but lose 500. I can still win the 2000 minus the 500. I get that. Then i play another 500 on florida to win 200. I get that part too. If LSU wins then i lose another 500 but win 1057 on the parlay total. i get that also. If florida wins then i lose 250 on the parlay but win 200 on florida. so that makes it a loss of 550 for the day. I get what you saying though. Worse case i lose 550 not 50 like i though.

 

[Geezy]

So you have 3 outcomes.

Oklahoma wins, you lose $96
Texas wins, Auburn loses you lose $750
Texas Wins, Auburn wins you win $1057

Oklahoma wins, i lose $46
Texas wins, LSU loses i lose $550
Texas Wins, LSU wins i win $1057

plus i guess i can hedge a little more on the second game if i need to and try to lose less.

 

[Aztec4Life]

Why would you bet on OU as a sure thing? It would be one thing if they were playing a crappy team. I would be anything but shocked if Texas won SU. The Longhorns have a better pass rush too.

 

[Geezy]

Why would you bet on OU as a sure thing? It would be one thing if they were playing a crappy team. I would be anything but shocked if Texas won SU. The Longhorns have a better pass rush too.

I am not going for OU as a sure thing. I want Texas. I am placing 500 on OU to hedge the bet.

Hoops made it clear to me that i can lose more then i thought. But i am going for Texas and LSU straight up so i can hit my ML parlay

 

[hoopsstar22]

Whoops... You did correct my math a little. I forgot the +204 from the Florida win.

So here is the revised outcomes.....

Oklahoma wins, you lose $46 ($250 loss from parlay, $204 win from Ok)
Texas wins, LSU loses you lose $546 ($500 loss from OK, $250 loss from parlay, $204 win from Florida)
Texas Wins, LSU wins you win $1057 ($500 loss from OK, $500 loss from FL, $2057 win from parlay)


So that makes the LSU ML worth +178, because you have to take account the $46 loss you will occur with an Oklahoma win.

This shouldn't be too hard to understand which is better.....

LSU ML +178 Risking $593 to win $1057

LSU ML +205 Risking $516 to win $1057



You still must count that potential $46 loss for an Oklahoma win, when calculating this.

 

[Geezy]

hoops...
I get it. Thanks for breaking it down for me. I wasnt taking in consideration of the parlay i would lose if Florida beat LSU. If texas wins I can always play more on Florida to lose less. But on the other hand, if LSU does win then i would win less then the 1057 net.

I up pretty big for the season. I am thinking i got a shot. 2 great games, beer and finger foods with money on the line.

Thanks Hoops

 

[hoopsstar22]

LOL... I'm STILL wrong above. It must be the 7th beer I'm on right now.

But do you get what I'm saying? You are taking VALUE away from the Auburn ML, by putting it in a parlay, and hedging. The hedge in UNNECESSARY.

Just bet the Auburn ML. You will be able to RISK LESS to WIN MORE.

 

[Geezy]

haha.. the beers must be working cause you keep saying Auburn. I am not playing Auburn but i know you mean LSU.. and i know what you are sayin about the ML

 

[hoopsstar22]

Jesus.... I need to step away from the keyboard.

LSU, you are right.

 

[Geezy]

Jesus.... I need to step away from the keyboard.

LSU, you are right.

LOL.. goodluck on the games tomorrow

 

[hoopsstar22]

I like to type in code to people sometimes.

So tonight's key is everything you read Auburn, substitute LSU....

 

[hoopsstar22]

But you get what I'm sayin my man?

 

[Geezy]

But you get what I'm sayin my man?

I get it 100%

thanks for all the math.. im sober and i was getting it wrong!!!

 

[hoopsstar22]

LOL...

It'll make you wonder if I know anything about college football. I tend to wonder that myself.

GL tomorrow as well.

 

[cubsker]

anytime hedging is your strategy going into the bet, don't make the bet. Hedging is -EV.

 

[Capt. Slap]

YO, what the hell are you doing putting 500 on OU?

What you do is put 250 to win 2,000 on Texas ML + LSU ML, if Texas loses whatever, you're out 250...

If Texas wins you've esentially got a free shot at 2000, you could put say 500 on Florida to cover the initial 250, or you could let it ride...

So its,

Texas Wins, LSU wins - Profit 1500
Texas Wins, LSU loses - Break even
OU wins - Lose 250


This is smarter.

 

[Capt. Slap]

I however, have been drinking with hoopsstar, so I could be wrong