TheRightCard
Pretty much a regular
How you doing guys. I am new to the forum thing. I just started twitter a couple months back (therightcard) and really have enjoyed interacting and helping some people out and getting others advice & ideas. A couple buddies that i have met on twitter suggested i come over here so figured i would give it a try. I am an avid sports fan and cap just about all sports. Obviously i do better in some than i do in others. I am not a tout so that means i have had losing seasons in the past. I have ultimately done very well across the board but like i said i have had seasons where i have lost and have had seasons where i have won. I do extensive number analysis on win totals prior to the year starting. I have a whole list of plays (i personally played) but only going to post the main plays on here. I have an email i have sent out that has a write up style on the plays and has my full list of plays. On here i am only going to post the featured 6 in my email. If you would like the full list (21 total) let me know and i will send you the email. I spent the same amount of time on each of them but these are the ones i feel have a big advantage. Once season starts i will try to get all my plays here. I post them all on my twitter account (therightcard). Also in the email, I have some tips and advice along with how i cap the totals. If you want it shoot me a message and ill email it to ya (free of charge of course).
Play #1 - Baylor OVER 8.5 wins (-105). I have Baylor with for sure wins against NW state, SMU, Rice, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas St, Texas Tech. That is 7 for sure wins right there. If they lose any one of those games it would be a big upset even with all the controversy surrounding the program. They should also win against Oklahoma St. That would mean they would only need to win one more game against the following teams. at Texas, TCU, at Oklahoma, at WVU. based on percentages they should win at least one of those games and probably 2 of them which means i think they get to 9 or 10 wins on the year. At a win total of 8.5 and a price of -105 this is a banger. Public perception of this team is down also due to the controversy which is a good thing for us. Baylor Over 8.5 Wins is the one of the few big plays this year for me as i played it at 1.5 units.
Play #2 - Rutgers Under 4.5 wins (-130). Rutgers has 12 games this year. Here are the games they are not winning. at Washington, Iowa, at Ohio St, Michigan, at Minnesota, & at Michigan St. That would mean they have to win 5 of the 6 remaining games to lose and those games are against Howard (they will win this one), New Mexico (coin flip), Illinois (coin flip), Indiana (coin flip), Penn St (probably a loss), and at maryland. I could see this team topping out at 3 wins which gives us a big edge in my opinion. Rutgers Under 4.5 Wins (-130) for a full 2 units for me.
Play #3 - Purdue Under 4.5 wins (-130). Purdue does avoid some of the big 10 powers this year but i still think they top out at 4 wins at the absolute max. This team has 1 sure win and thats Eastern Kentucky. I think they are in trouble against Cincy, Iowa, at Neb, Penn St, at Minn, Wisconsin, at Indiana. The other games against Nevada, at Maryland, at Illinois, Northwestern are no gimmies either. I wouldnt be shocked if this team only wins 3 games this year. Another solid edge IMO. Purdue under 4.5 wins for 1.5units for me.
Play #4 - Syracuse Under 4 wins (-135). Syracuse will struggle to win 3 games and if they squeak out a couple shockers and get to 4 well then we still push and wouldn't lose. They have one game where they will be favored and that is against Colgate. I have stared at the schedule and numbers and cannot figure out a way this team gets to 5 wins. It is 4 at the absolute max and i would be shocked if they get to 4. Syracuse Under 4 wins a full 2 units for me.
Play #5 - Kansas Under 2 wins (-110). I am shocked this is at 2 at some shops. This team won 0 games last year and i expect more of the same from this team. They return 18 starters but again the team won zero games last year and the schedule this year is BRUTAL. They would need to get 3 wins for us to lose. They play 12 games this year and 2 are winnable. and those are the first two games of the year. They would need to win game 1 vs Rhode Island which they probably will. They would need to win game 2 vs Ohio (odds not in Kansas's favor) and game 10 vs Iowa St (which they will be double digit dogs). Because this Kansas team isnt winning a single other game on there schedule that looks like this > at memphis, at Texas Tech, TCU, at baylor, OK State, at Oklahoma, at WVU, Texas, at Kansas St. Kansas Under 2 wins for 1.5 units for me.
Play #6 - Cincinnati Over 7.5 wins (-110). This team won 7 games last year and returns 15 starters. This team could have easily won 10 games as they dropped close games against Memphis, Temple, and Houston. The schedule is easier this year for the bearcats. They get for sure wins against UT Martin, Miami Oh, ECU, at UCF. They also get the tougher opponents at home. Houston, South Florida, BYU, Memphis are all at home. I expect the cats to be favorites against those teams except for Houston. This team wins a couple of the coin flip games and they are looking at 8 and possibly 9 wins. Cincinnati Over 7.5 wins for a full 2 units for me.
Play #1 - Baylor OVER 8.5 wins (-105). I have Baylor with for sure wins against NW state, SMU, Rice, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas St, Texas Tech. That is 7 for sure wins right there. If they lose any one of those games it would be a big upset even with all the controversy surrounding the program. They should also win against Oklahoma St. That would mean they would only need to win one more game against the following teams. at Texas, TCU, at Oklahoma, at WVU. based on percentages they should win at least one of those games and probably 2 of them which means i think they get to 9 or 10 wins on the year. At a win total of 8.5 and a price of -105 this is a banger. Public perception of this team is down also due to the controversy which is a good thing for us. Baylor Over 8.5 Wins is the one of the few big plays this year for me as i played it at 1.5 units.
Play #2 - Rutgers Under 4.5 wins (-130). Rutgers has 12 games this year. Here are the games they are not winning. at Washington, Iowa, at Ohio St, Michigan, at Minnesota, & at Michigan St. That would mean they have to win 5 of the 6 remaining games to lose and those games are against Howard (they will win this one), New Mexico (coin flip), Illinois (coin flip), Indiana (coin flip), Penn St (probably a loss), and at maryland. I could see this team topping out at 3 wins which gives us a big edge in my opinion. Rutgers Under 4.5 Wins (-130) for a full 2 units for me.
Play #3 - Purdue Under 4.5 wins (-130). Purdue does avoid some of the big 10 powers this year but i still think they top out at 4 wins at the absolute max. This team has 1 sure win and thats Eastern Kentucky. I think they are in trouble against Cincy, Iowa, at Neb, Penn St, at Minn, Wisconsin, at Indiana. The other games against Nevada, at Maryland, at Illinois, Northwestern are no gimmies either. I wouldnt be shocked if this team only wins 3 games this year. Another solid edge IMO. Purdue under 4.5 wins for 1.5units for me.
Play #4 - Syracuse Under 4 wins (-135). Syracuse will struggle to win 3 games and if they squeak out a couple shockers and get to 4 well then we still push and wouldn't lose. They have one game where they will be favored and that is against Colgate. I have stared at the schedule and numbers and cannot figure out a way this team gets to 5 wins. It is 4 at the absolute max and i would be shocked if they get to 4. Syracuse Under 4 wins a full 2 units for me.
Play #5 - Kansas Under 2 wins (-110). I am shocked this is at 2 at some shops. This team won 0 games last year and i expect more of the same from this team. They return 18 starters but again the team won zero games last year and the schedule this year is BRUTAL. They would need to get 3 wins for us to lose. They play 12 games this year and 2 are winnable. and those are the first two games of the year. They would need to win game 1 vs Rhode Island which they probably will. They would need to win game 2 vs Ohio (odds not in Kansas's favor) and game 10 vs Iowa St (which they will be double digit dogs). Because this Kansas team isnt winning a single other game on there schedule that looks like this > at memphis, at Texas Tech, TCU, at baylor, OK State, at Oklahoma, at WVU, Texas, at Kansas St. Kansas Under 2 wins for 1.5 units for me.
Play #6 - Cincinnati Over 7.5 wins (-110). This team won 7 games last year and returns 15 starters. This team could have easily won 10 games as they dropped close games against Memphis, Temple, and Houston. The schedule is easier this year for the bearcats. They get for sure wins against UT Martin, Miami Oh, ECU, at UCF. They also get the tougher opponents at home. Houston, South Florida, BYU, Memphis are all at home. I expect the cats to be favorites against those teams except for Houston. This team wins a couple of the coin flip games and they are looking at 8 and possibly 9 wins. Cincinnati Over 7.5 wins for a full 2 units for me.
