The Vegas Flu

[Zeke]

I know this was in play last year but look to fade any team in their next game following playing at Vegas. This year (unless I miscounted) it is 8-1 SU and also 8-1 going -1.5 against the fade team.

The Ducks are the only team who has bucked this trend this year. The Bruins have only one 2-goal loss this year, at Colorado. Guess where their previous game was?

I did not look into number of days' rest in between nor if most of the following game were OTR. So far this year it hasn't mattered.

Next up is WPG tomorrow night.

 

[B.A.R.]

I was hoping this would get tracked more. It has to be factored into the prices, right?

 

[Teapot9]

We hammer NJ tomorrow!

 

[pressitup]

I posted the next few games here

http://cappingthegame.com/forum/index.php?threads/what-have-we-learned-so-far.145794/#post-3624673

ONly the Jets have covered after Vegas
1-7

 

[Zeke]

Press - Anaheim is the team who won after Vegas. Looks like WPG has yet to play after Vegas.

And fuck me, I have a bit of a head cold & just bet the wrong fucking team! Shit! Lets hope WPG can buck this trend. I'm such a douche.

 

[pressitup]

Press - Anaheim is the team who won after Vegas. Looks like WPG has yet to play after Vegas.

And fuck me, I have a bit of a head cold & just bet the wrong fucking team! Shit! Lets hope WPG can buck this trend. I'm such a douche.

yes. As usual I say things backwards. The play was on the jets and it lost.

 

[pressitup]

I had taken star’s pl vs Montreal and that hit at +200+
not sure I’d ever recommend that but I was a littlepissed at losing on the jets earlier.

 

[Vapster]

Colorado @ Vegas Wins 6-1.
Next Night At Home?
Ducks Beat Colorado 5-2.

Oct 27th Vegas 5 Ducks 2
Oct 29th Ducks 7 Jets 4

Nov 2nd Jets 4 Vegas 3
Today Devils vs Jets

Devils +120 +1.5 -210

NHL teams the following game after playing the Knights in Las Vegas going into this year. (29-53) on the moneyline. This year (0-8) and losing all 8 on the 1.5.
Things That Make Ya Go Hmmm...
Jets last played Vegas Nov 2nd. They play NJ tonight.

 

[Zeke]

Vap the way its been going you could take NJ on reverse PL. The teams that lose seem to lose by 2+.

 

[jedi ninja]

Colorado @ Vegas Wins 6-1.
Next Night At Home?
Ducks Beat Colorado 5-2.

Oct 27th Vegas 5 Ducks 2
Oct 29th Ducks 7 Jets 4

Nov 2nd Jets 4 Vegas 3
Today Devils vs Jets

Devils +120 +1.5 -210

NHL teams the following game after playing the Knights in Las Vegas going into this year. (29-53) on the moneyline. This year (0-8) and losing all 8 on the 1.5.
Things That Make Ya Go Hmmm...
Jets last played Vegas Nov 2nd. They play NJ tonight.

It’s 7-1. The Ducks game you referenced vs the Jets is a loss for this as Anaheim was the team who just played in Vegas.

 

[Teapot9]

Devils!!

 

[Teapot9]

We did it boys!!!

 

[Zeke]

So ironic that I posted this thread and the first game that qualified I fucked up & bet the wrong side.

 

[Teapot9]

So ironic that I posted this thread and the first game that qualified I fucked up & bet the wrong side.

Sorry player but that’s hilarious

 

[Teapot9]

View attachment 43995
I was passing the casino and had some walkin around money and decided to screw around with it.

 

[Teapot9]

View attachment 43997
The Vegas Flu angle was the centerpiece to it all last night

 

[Vapster]

My Bad @jedi ninja

Next Vegas Home Game Is Wed The 13th vs Chi.
That Sat The 16th Chi Plays @ Nash.

 

[faceoff]

I Thought this was a very insightful find Zeke. I caught one after posted first time. Or I saw it posted in a different forum. Thanks if it was you.

The thing I find about trends is that once you find it, it has already run its course, or just about.

The best is when you catch one early and get 2 or 3 wins. Before it fizzles out.

 

[Zeke]

Faceoff, while I don't entirely disagree there were some trends hitting at a high rate last year that lasted all season long. The Vegas flu was one of them, the other being a few teams who were tearing it up on the 1P overs.

 

[faceoff]

Faceoff, while I don't entirely disagree there were some trends hitting at a high rate last year that lasted all season long. The Vegas flu was one of them, the other being a few teams who were tearing it up on the 1P overs.

I didn't mean any disrespect or anything. I was just saying. There are always trends and the one you posted made me a few bucks the time I played it.

 

[Zeke]

No I know you didn't. This did however crash & burn badly with Chicago on Saturday.

 

[faceoff]

No I know you didn't. This did however crash & burn badly with Chicago on Saturday.

:shake: Like they say. All good things must come to an end..

 

[pressitup]

Play on the avs tonight

 

[Zeke]

Yup, juicy reverse PL also at +325.

Leafs up next, in Vegas tonight then to AZ Thursday.

 

[Lar1212]

I forget the exact numbers, but it was something like 33-58 over the last few years. When I see it again, I’ll repost.

 

[Teapot9]

Vegas flu in full effect

 

[Lar1212]

Easy underdog winner.

 

[Zeke]

When I have time I'll dig deeper into this to see if there's any correlation between days between, distance traveled to next game & west vs east teams as far as the affected team losing next game by 2.

 

[Lar1212]

Play against SJ tonight (pick NYI).

 

[Ungabunga]

I s.j should win today from same divison end this isles strek it was pathetic 3 overtime games with pit im sharks tonight

 

[Teapot9]

I s.j should win today from same divison end this isles strek it was pathetic 3 overtime games with pit im sharks tonight

Do you ever go out for drinks at a place called Hudson’s?

 

[Ungabunga]

Do you ever go out for drinks at a place called Hudson’s?

Saskatoon city hudsons yes

 

[Teapot9]

Saskatoon city hudsons yes

Nice. I’ve heard it’s like fishing with dynamite there.

 

[Zeke]

This angle definitely has not been hitting at the same rate it was last year.

That said, I heard on VSIN yesterday that the Blues players were told Saturday before the game that the coaching staff was leaving right after the game & the players were on their own to spend the night then take a charter back the next day. If this isn't a recipe for debauchery I don't know what it.

Today is their first game back at it & also first game home after the road trip. I'll bite on SJ +165.

 

[pressitup]

angle is 19-9 playing against the recent Vegas visitor.

Today the Blues are a possible victim.
Play on Preds.

 

[Teapot9]

Remember Ovi could get his 700th in Vegas Monday night

 

[pressitup]

Preds bring it home at + money.

Coyotes on deck, Monday

 

[pressitup]

teams with the Vegas Flu are 9-23 , now.
Panthers with the flu tonight.

Play on Coyotes

 

[Teapot9]

teams with the Vegas Flu are 9-23 , now.
Panthers with the flu tonight.

Play on Coyotes

I think because of where the Florida Panthers are based, they are impervious to the traps of Sin City.
The Ft. Lauderdale can go toe to toe with the potential debauchery of Vegas.

 

[Zeke]

That or it's simply when I play on this system it loses.

 

[Teapot9]

That or it's simply when I play on this system it loses.

That’s like me if I ever bet on or against U of Iowa, or U of Misery.

 

[Teapot9]

I think there’s other angles to take away from this system particularly when a team plays AZ after Vegas. Just from the eye test, these games all seem to go under.

 

[pressitup]

2/29 we have two plays

Play on :

Jets (Oilers on two days rest) see below.
Coyotes (Sabres are on the back to back)

It's not going to win every play.
We just want it to win most.

So , I broke it down to days of rest after Vegas.
These are win totals of teams with the "flu".

rest=0 1-4 (-1.60, 20.0%) Only Sabres game tomorrow left in season. Over is 4-1 in these games.
Rest=1 4-15 (-1.47, 21.1%) Only one game left , 3/25
Rest=2 5-3 (0.75, 62.5%) Five games left this season
Rest=3 0-1 (-2.00, 0.0%) Only one game left, 3/5

In summary, teams with two days off after playing VGK is the only winning percentage.
Florida , the latest loser, was a two day rest.
I'll denote days rest in the plays. One day of rest is optimal.
Next year needs to be broken down in this way.

 

[Zeke]

Nice breakdown Press. I started this a couple months ago and indicated scores for the next game. I lost interest though because it started hitting at a mediocre clip.

Seems like AZ gets the majority of the next games likely due to the location.

 

[booksbestfriend]

Maybe look into the W/L at Vegas into consideration. If teams win, how do they fare the next outing? ..lose, the same. See if that churns a significant difference.

 

[pressitup]

5-9 if they won in Vegas
5-14 if they lost.

The Oilers lost, but they are also on 2 days rest that has the highest win percentage.
systems/trends.......so much fun.

 

[Teapot9]

Caddying fOR a WHL color commentator, he’s breaking Nd down Vegas fly theories for me. Stay tuned.

 

[Zeke]

Redirect Notice

images.app.goo.gl

 

[Teapot9]

Just got off work

 

[Teapot9]

Redirect Notice

images.app.goo.gl

so he said it’s an open secret in NHL circles that the coaches knowingly turn a blind eye the night after a Vegas game and let the boys do their thing. He also said that if guys are engaged on the team the boys will throw bachelor parties for them in Vegas and the coaching staff allows it. Recently a lot of teams have had their dad trips coincide with the Vegas game. He said that players drink pedialyte when hungover.