The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 05 Lines & Market Plays

TheSportsCruncher

Pretty much a regular
1 Unit:

VAN +4 @ MTU (-115)
BC +7 @ DUKE (-105)
TEX +18.5 @ TCU
CONN +19 @ BYU

.55 Units:

GASO -6 @ ULM
TROY -2.5 VS SOAL
EMU +45.5 @ LSU
IDHO +20.5 @ ARST
WKU -7 @ RICE
UNC +9 @ GT (-115)
PITT +4.5 @ VT
MINN +6.5 @ NW
PUR +24.5 @ MSU (-115)
 
Adding for .55 unit: MIZZ -3.5 vs SCAR

This is purely a situation play, as the numbers only like MIZZ to barely cover this. I don't play situations much, but it seems like a good spot for MIZZ to play harder than SCAR, given a loss and a win respectively last week. First road start for SCAR QB Nunez, and MiZZ still has a pretty good defense. It tells you how poor MIZZ' offense is playing this year that the line is this low after SCAR got cremated at UGA just a couple of weeks ago. They didn't have a terrible game @ Kentucky, and were really only let down by their pass defense or they are right there for the win. Nunez is not going to have that same kind of success.
 
Adding for .55 Unit: TTU +15.5 vs Baylor (-105 neutral field)

Well, let me get down for at least a little bit on this one. Baylor offense plenty capable of destroying defenses like TTU's, just banking on TTU keeping up like they did against TCU, though Baylor's defense is currently better than the injured Frog's squad. TTU QB Mahomes gimpy yesterday, hope that's not going to be an issue.
 
Adding for .55 Unit: ASU +14 @ UCLA

I liked both UCLA and USC to cover yesterday, but neither was as good as the final score might have you think, lol. This is a good match up for the ASU defense, who is better against the run than the pass. They're still pretty good against the pass, give or take a few short passes that went for abnormally long distances when they played TA&M and USC, lol.
 
good numbers so far

value on Minn? Their O looks inept

Their O actually came to life versus Ohio for the first time -- you might be surprised to see that they put up above average numbers, considering that they needed a final minute drive to win the game (and squash the Under, unfortunately). They've had some injuries up front -- hopefully it's a sign of them getting healthy.
 
Adding for .55 unit: ODU +20.5 @ MRSH

Sure I'd like a 21, but I'm not holding my breath it'll get there. Both of these teams have seen the lack of last year's starting QB (and running backs, etc.) send their offenses plummeting faster than a depressed German pilot. These might literally be the two offenses with the most amount of negative regression this year. Marshall's current problem is compounded by the fact that they're down to their backup QB already. #! Birdsong is "?" for this game, but I'm not gonna' sweat it too bad if he ends up playing, he hasn't been very good either. Marshall absolutely didn't deserve to cover the 6.5 points against Kent, but they got the game into OT and the ball first in the 2nd OT, got the touchdown and held Kent out. It was my only really lucky cover of the day, requiring a specific sequence of events to happen. Trust me, I've been downgrading Marshall's projections as the season has gone along, but it's been such a sharp downturn that it was beyond what I'd anticipated.

I've docked ODU's projections beyond the normal amount now, too. They've had pretty anemic offensive numbers these past two games, failing to reach 200 yards in either of those games. So yeah, against anyone not named Eastern Michigan they have been bad. Marshall's defense had been playing okay, but then they let Kent have their first average+ game on offense this year.

With both offenses so far down, 20.5 is a lot of points to cover, which is creating the value on the not just Old, but Expired and Moldy Around the Rim Dominion.
 
fwiw - I thought Scary did not look good yesterday, despite the fact they covered the 15. Good luck with Mizzou. I'll be joining you.
 
My lines final score for last week. In my new Cheat Sheet format (available before lines come out - details at my website).

On the few lines where the market went strongly against my lines -- I won with Western Michigan, the biggest steamer against my lines. You can say under thrown this or whatever excuses, but at the end of the game it was WMU who survived against the early spread after giving up a short pick 6 and having a FG blocked. No woulda' coulda' shoulda's are that tangible. The Navy Over -- last week I got the market, this week the market got me, but it came down to Navy not kicking a FG on 4th and 1 late in the game, instead failing on the fourth down play. So not a great pick either way, unlike the previous week against ECU. The TXST @ HOU Over -- honestly, I hadn't raised Houston's offensive projections enough to match their reality, because they'd only played one FBS opponent before this week. TXST's defense is bad, but we mostly already knew that. At the end of the day the market closed on the correct total of 73 for a push.

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Woke up just now to see that the lines were realllllly hit in the direction my lines would indicate on every single game with decent value. The action on UTEP last night was just a juke and UTSA has been hammered hard now. That was the one line move that had me scratching my head last night. All 3 of those games with P5 teams where the line was 7.5 or 8 -- I did have leans on all the dogs there, but not quite enough value to bet them even being on the right side of 7. Maybe I should've taken a position to try middles, as of now they'e come down and shouldn't finish higher than 7. The question if is they close lower than 7. One game I'm going to have to look at for further info. is MISS @ FLA, as I'm not sure why that one has crossed above 7 when I'm showing a little value on FLA. I would've taken APP at -17 for a little but that ship sailed before I even got to put a play it and I'm not touching it as high as it's gotten, in spite of how badly they beat a bad ODU team while WYO is still a winless floundering mess.

Adding for 1 Unit: IND +21 vs OSU

Is this going to be a thing, still? OSU getting bet up every week in spite of failing to cover their last 3? I'm not seeing any significant injuries for IND that would otherwise explain this line moving up. IND does have the leading rusher in the nation and watching the OSU game last week you can move the ball on their defense (scoring touchdowns against them might be another matter, though). IND has a decent passing game to provide necessary balance, too. IND's defense is still ripe for ripping through, but playing at home they'll play hard and score enough to lose in the 35-21 ball park.
 
Adding for .55 unit: FLA +7.5 vs MISS

Don't love this play, but what the heck. FLA had it's first sub-par game on defense last week, which doesn't bode well facing the best offense they've seen this year with Ole Miss. The "I ain't gonna' implicate myself by taking this drug test!" players are back for Florida (useful if FLA wants to continue their history of waffling on a true starting QB). I look for FLA to have a slight advantage in the run game, and Ole Miss to have a pretty sizable one in the passing game. That's a good enough type of match up for the home team on the right side of a key number to back for a bit.
 
Hope my Totals are as spot on as my Sides have been so far this week, because I feel like I just got some pretty good grabs.

1 Unit:

NMSU @ UNM OVER 65
CSU @ USU OVER 47.5 (Don't worry about the QB change for USU)
GASO @ ULM UNDER 51
VAN @ MTU UNDER 53
BC @ DUKE UNDER 41 (Wanted that 41, minimum)
ALA @ UGA OVER 52 (Gynormous value)
WKU @ RICE OVER 69.5
FIU @ MASS OVER 54.5 (What, is there a Noreastern forecast next weekend?)
TOL @ BALL UNDER 56
OHIO @ AKRON UNDER 46
IOWA @ WIS OVER 46.5 (Ruh roh, I'm back to liking the Over on a Wisky game -- been on the right side of every Wisky total last 3 weeks.)
PUR @ MSU UNDER 59

.55 Unit: (bumped up my half units 10% this week to reflect 10% growth in bankroll so far)

HAW & BSU UNDER 51.5 (may add another 1/2 if the number rises above 52 for whatever odd reason)
MISS @ FLA OVER 51.5 (one of the weaker plays I just put in)
M-OH @ KENT UNDER 46.5
UNC @ GT OVER 62.5 (GT frequently takes Under action when I like the Over, fyi)
SCAR @ MIZZ UNDER 43
 
.55 unit: ODU @ MRSH Under 53

Profiled this as an Under+, but didn't see a ton of value on the opening # of 54. You can see which way the wind is blowing, though, so going to lock in a little something above 52 here.

On a side note, I would have made this total 76.5 with last year's teams, lol.
 
Okay, I guess I'll be the first person anywhere in the known betting universe to make a play on Wyoming this week!

1/2 unit: WYO +24 @ APP (+105)

Plus juice seals the deal (or doom, depending). WYO top RB Hill injured but probably this week. The WYO passing game is still okay. The APP offense should do whatever they want to do, it's true, I'm just hoping for a back door at worst.

While we're visiting the Appalachians...

.55 Unit: WYO @ APP Over 56

I think that if APP covers this big # it's because they boat raced WYO scoring 42+ points. If WYO gets a minimum of 14 points the Over is a push worst, in that scenario.
 
Adding for 1 Unit: FSU @ WAKE Under 46

A good portion of the value on this play resides on WAKE QB Wolford's gimpy ankle. Backup Hinton has not hinted at being a decent passer, and that was against some pretty shoddy secondaries. He's made some plays with his feet, though. Good luck running around like a chicken with it's head cut off against FSU, buddy. If it's ever announced that Wolford will also miss this game (seems to me with an ankle that he returned to the game against Army with before determining it was a no-go that there's a good chance he returns after skipping last week's Indiana game) then in addition to loving the Under I might be tempted to take FSU at anything less than 20, even though my lines aren't showing any value on them. It would be half unit hedge with a chance to win -- because if this game ends up going Over w/o Wolford there's a good chance FSU got some cheap scores and will cover.
 
Adding for 1 Unit: FSU @ WAKE Under 46

A good portion of the value on this play resides on WAKE QB Wolford's gimpy ankle. Backup Hinton has not hinted at being a decent passer, and that was against some pretty shoddy secondaries. He's made some plays with his feet, though. Good luck running around like a chicken with it's head cut off against FSU, buddy. If it's ever announced that Wolford will also miss this game (seems to me with an ankle that he returned to the game against Army with before determining it was a no-go that there's a good chance he returns after skipping last week's Indiana game) then in addition to loving the Under I might be tempted to take FSU at anything less than 20, even though my lines aren't showing any value on them. It would be half unit hedge with a chance to win -- because if this game ends up going Over w/o Wolford there's a good chance FSU got some cheap scores and will cover.
FSU having The U on deck could also help , BOL
 
Sides were pretty accurate and profitable last week. Good enough for #1 on the week in Average Error at CFBPredictions out of almost 50 models. Moved up to 3rd place out of 60 models at ThePredictionTracker in ATS% on all games at 56.5%. Check the website promotions forum later this evening if you're interested in getting my lines before the markets open each week.

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Adding for 1 Unit: Maryland +16 vs Michigan

Yes, Maryland played a terrible game at West Virginia last week and can't find a QB who doesn't throw interceptions, while Michigan had their best game of the season last week shutting out BYU. This = a terribly over-inflated line. Trust me? lol

Adding for 1 Unit: CONN @ BYU Under 46.5

Been watching this one today to see if a 47 popped for whatever misguided reason. No such luck. I'm afraid of waking up to a 45. BYU has slowed their offensive tempo way down this year compared to last.
 
I considered Terps briefly because my numbers made it lower. I am just scared to step in front of the train right now.
 
There's no higher hidden value than stepping in front of a train that everyone else thinks is real! lol Speaking of which...

Service steam, you have caught my attention.

Adding for 1 Unit: OSU @ IND Under 67

I profiled the total on this game as neutral, meaning I didn't think the line value was worth shading to the Under or Over at all. Last week I won against the steam coming in on OSU and the Over, even though I unfortunately had my plays in before the steam had finishing blowing it's top upward, lol. I can tell you right now, there hasn't been a more over-valued side and total combo than OSU and the Over BOTH of these past 2 weeks.
 
Time to suck up some RAS steam.

Adding another unit on IOWA@WIS Over 44.5 to go with the 46.5. This steam will get sucked back up and I should be able to try and middle the bonus unit hopefully through 2 key numbers.
 
Looks like several weather plays on the East coast Unders. Unfortunately I have a few 1/2 unit Overs out in those areas that are getting pounded down right now. As much as I'd like to snap up a little extra at these real low numbers...the weather actually is a concern, lol. Hopefully that storm doesn't do me too much damage this Saturday, lol. I do have some full unit plays on Unders out there, at least.
 
Adding for 1 Unit: Southern Alabama @ Troy Under 62.5

Stepping in front of the steam is always dangerous, as are Unders when two bottom 30 teams with bottom 30 defenses get together, but my rankings have their offenses in the bottom 30 as well. This suggests a game played out, on average, near the average FBS final score of a smidge over 55. I actually project this one to go even a point+ below the average because Troy is predominantly a running team who've operated at a pretty slow pace this year, especially in the season opener against NCST. They picked it up somewhat against Wisconsin, but were still 2+ seconds slower than the average pace. SOAL can keep this game close with their passing game, but I'd expect Troy to play clock control with any kind of lead or even a small deficit until late in the game.
 
Adding for 1 Unit: FSU @ WAKE Under 46

A good portion of the value on this play resides on WAKE QB Wolford's gimpy ankle. Backup Hinton has not hinted at being a decent passer, and that was against some pretty shoddy secondaries. He's made some plays with his feet, though. Good luck running around like a chicken with it's head cut off against FSU, buddy. If it's ever announced that Wolford will also miss this game (seems to me with an ankle that he returned to the game against Army with before determining it was a no-go that there's a good chance he returns after skipping last week's Indiana game) then in addition to loving the Under I might be tempted to take FSU at anything less than 20, even though my lines aren't showing any value on them. It would be half unit hedge with a chance to win -- because if this game ends up going Over w/o Wolford there's a good chance FSU got some cheap scores and will cover.
I am interested in under here as well, but will wait it out on status of Wolford. I don't think Hinton can have much success throwing on FSU and also will be minimized in the zone read or scrambling with FSU speed at LB and secondary positions. GL this week SC.
 
Thx Dwight & Tim.

Adding for 1 Unit: ARMY +24.5 @ PSU

The injuries kind of cancel each other out in this one, imo. Army QB Bradshaw "?" with an ankle while PSU RBs Lynch and Barkley are also both "?" with an ankle. Army's 2nd QB Schurr doesn't look to be too much of a drop off though a good chunk of his limited stats came against EMU's defense.
 
Thx Dwight & Tim.

Adding for 1 Unit: ARMY +24.5 @ PSU

The injuries kind of cancel each other out in this one, imo. Army QB Bradshaw "?" with an ankle while PSU RBs Lynch and Barkley are also both "?" with an ankle. Army's 2nd QB Schurr doesn't look to be too much of a drop off though a good chunk of his limited stats came against EMU's defense.
good look on that army game. i missed the number a little bit but was considering it as well. their run game and 24.5 points is not a bad bet
 
M-OH @ Kent total up to 49 now, so I'm forced to chase the 1/2 unit I initially put on the Under 46.5 with another 1/2 unit on 49, lol. Every time I do this I'm mandated by conscience to say this doesn't work out at a very high rate. M-OH's run defense isn't actually all that bad, which is a good match up against Kent. M-OH has had one good FBS game of offense this year, against Cincinnati. Kent has also had one, against Marshall last week, where they ran the ball really well for the first time. M-OH was pass happy in the shut out against Wisky but has flipped and run more than they've passed in their last two games. They played at a pretty average pace in their two blow out losses, but very fast in the game against Cincy in which they were tied after 3 quarters and which went down to the wire. A small pattern I've maybe noticed this year is service plays coming in on teams that have shown that they're going to play up tempo sometimes, if not all the time. I was wrong the last time I saw this scenario last week in the UNT @ Iowa game. UNT continued to play fast, and their shite defense just got completely boat raced by Iowa. At the very least in this match up we're talking about Kent, who is still a much stronger team on defense than offense. So while there's a chance that Kent runs the ball well again, and a chance that M-OH has some passing success against Kent's defense (who is better against the run), as long as both chances don't come to fruition I think this game stays in the low 40s, barring the usual possibility of defensive and special teams scores.
 
This hurricane business back East is a real pain to handicap. I had a few marginal Overs I added on Monday before the weather info. hit and now those three totals have taken a dive. I have maybe a couple Unders that have benefited. I really like the ALA @ UGA Over I got at 52 but now the forecast is for 2-3 inches of rain Saturday, with not so bad winds of 10 mph. That sounds like a lot of rain. As much as I like this Over I'm going to buy the unit back on the Under 55 while it's still available. The rain is supposed to be less further up in Raleigh, for example, but the winds are higher. Maybe with a little luck I'll break even on this mess, lol.
 
Ha, I played the Over 66 for a unit on tonight's MIA@CIN game, but somehow it being the first play I made at opening I failed to see it at the bottom of the list when posting here. I think it's still worth a play at 69.5.
 
M-OH @ Kent total up to 49 now, so I'm forced to chase the 1/2 unit I initially put on the Under 46.5 with another 1/2 unit on 49, lol. Every time I do this I'm mandated by conscience to say this doesn't work out at a very high rate. M-OH's run defense isn't actually all that bad, which is a good match up against Kent. M-OH has had one good FBS game of offense this year, against Cincinnati. Kent has also had one, against Marshall last week, where they ran the ball really well for the first time. M-OH was pass happy in the shut out against Wisky but has flipped and run more than they've passed in their last two games. They played at a pretty average pace in their two blow out losses, but very fast in the game against Cincy in which they were tied after 3 quarters and which went down to the wire. A small pattern I've maybe noticed this year is service plays coming in on teams that have shown that they're going to play up tempo sometimes, if not all the time. I was wrong the last time I saw this scenario last week in the UNT @ Iowa game. UNT continued to play fast, and their shite defense just got completely boat raced by Iowa. At the very least in this match up we're talking about Kent, who is still a much stronger team on defense than offense. So while there's a chance that Kent runs the ball well again, and a chance that M-OH has some passing success against Kent's defense (who is better against the run), as long as both chances don't come to fruition I think this game stays in the low 40s, barring the usual possibility of defensive and special teams scores.

I just blinked and this total came down to 44, lol. Sweet!
 
Here's pics of my new College Football Market Cheat Sheet, which I'll be releasing Sunday every week. I'm going to attach the excel file of it here in a second if I can as the file can be used for your own purposes if you update the teams and lines each week.

Most of the negative total values are because of the Hurricane, I haven't made any manual adjustments to the lines, just so you know what my non weather influenced line is.

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If you had a side in Bama/Ga, N Dame/Clemson, or Ole Miss/Fla, Cruncher I didn't see it.

Do you have an opinion on any of those?
 
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