The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 05 Lines & Market Plays

[TheSportsCruncher]

If you had a side in Bama/Ga, N Dame/Clemson, or Ole Miss/Fla, Cruncher I didn't see it.

Do you have an opinion on any of those?

I did play FLA at +7.5 for a 1/2, but I think it's one of my weakest plays on the card. I like ND and UGA to win close ones, but would probably want ND +2.5 or UGA pick before I played either one.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

I said if HAW @ BSU ever went above 52 I'd bump the Under up to a full unit by adding, so consider it done at 53.5.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

.55 Unit: Kansas +17 @ Iowa State

1 Unit: Arizona State @ UCLA Under 61.5

 

[geezer]

Think I have looked at your chart until I am about to go blind and can't find the Temple - Charlotte game - wondering if you have an opinion.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Think I have looked at your chart until I am about to go blind and can't find the Temple - Charlotte game - wondering if you have an opinion.

Sorry to burn out your eyeballs looking for that! Because Charlotte is new to FBS this year and I've found problems with their box scores this year to boot, I haven't added them into the system yet. If boxes are good will have them in next week. So no, no opinion.

Adding for 1/2 Unit: 2 team 5 point ties win teaser (+105 5D)

UCF +7 @ Tulane
Notre Dame +7 @ Clemson

Funsie time.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Adding for 1/2 Unit:

FIU ML +130 @ MASS

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Stupid BYU game made me sweat my CONN +19 and Under 46.5 way more than seemed reasonable after 3 quarters done, lol.

Here's to hoping the wind ain't too bad tomorrow. I got whammied on a few small Over plays I made at opening, and also benefited on some Unders, I guess. I don't care so much about gaining value on the Unders, because I liked them with or without bad weather, lol.

Adding for 1/2 unit: PITT @ VT Over 44.5 (-105 5D) Pressing whammy #1

This could be foolish. Just gambling that the weather isn't worse than current forecast.

Adding for 1/2 Unit: NCST vs LOU Over 46.5 (-105 5D) Pressing whammy #2

This could be foolish. Just gambling that the weather isn't worse than current forecast.

Adding for 1/2 Unit: NCST -4 vs LOU (-103 5D)

I'll take the much better running team on a windy and probably wet day at home. If it stays Under I think NCST covers.

Adding for .55 unit: UGA pick vs ALA

Wanted it at pick, got it just now at BOL.

Adding for 1/2 unit: SMU +6 vs ECU (-102 5D)

Adding for .55 unit: HOU @ TLSA Under 81.5 (-105 5D)

Yes it carries my max-weight Over profile, but this is too many points.

Adding for .55 unit: ARMY @ PSU Over 44 (-108 5D)

Line value here, and a little insurance perhaps on the Army +24.5 play.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Bought UGA v ALA Over 52 when it opened, and got off with Under 55 when several inches of rain were forecast. Looks like it will be raining during game time, but wind forecast isn't too bad, barring gusting. Time to get back on the Over for a bit.

Adding for .55 unit: ALA @ UGA Over 51 (-105 5D)

 

[HUNT]

Crunch it

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Okay, time to buy off the extra unit on Iowa@Wis Over. I was hoping to get a 47, but nope, I think weather has everyone Over gun shy today. Under 46.5 1 Unit (-107 5D). To be clear, I like the Over in this one.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

1/2 Unit: NCST -2 2nd half vs LOU (-115)

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Predictably no luck on any of the Overs where the weather ended up being a factor. At least those are out of the way and the Unders I have back East have a chance to get some back.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Adding for 1 Unit: WYO +10.5 2nd half @ APP St.

Misleading score at the half. WYO slightly outgaining APP, both teams with good pass and run averages. Wyoming starts 2nd half with the ball.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Adding for .55 unit: UNC @ GT Under 30.5 2nd half (-115)

I have the Over 62.5 in this game for the same amount. GT playing ball control, really limiting UNC's number of plays in the first half. Good shot at a middle with 27-30 in the 2nd half.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Adding to win 1/2 Unit: UGA +0.5 2nd half vs ALA (-150)

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Adding for .55 unit: SJSU +8.5 2nd half @ AUB

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Adding for .55 unit: TTU +7 2nd half vs BAY

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Adding for .55 unit: NEB @ ILL Under 27 2nd half

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Adding for .55 unit: WSU +10.5 2nd half @ CAL (-105)

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Adding for 1/2 Unit: ECU -5 2nd half @ SMU (EV)

I have SMU +6 for the game, so this is a middle hedge. ECU outplaying SMU after allowing the quick TD to start the game.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Adding for 1/2 Unit: KSU +5.5 2nd half @ OKST

Georgia...ugh, lol.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

1 Unit: SOAL @ TROY Under 31 2nd half (-115)

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Adding for .55 Unit: GASO pick 2nd half @ ULM (-120)
Adding for .55 Unit: GASO @ ULM Under 24 2nd half

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Picked up some line value on GASO there, lol.

 

[Zeke]

Boise total up to 56 now. Something happen or just service steam? Been waiting to see how high it climbs.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Boise total up to 56 now. Something happen or just service steam? Been waiting to see how high it climbs.

Might not even be service steam -- just square steam desperate with not many games left today, lol. Has nobody seen the result of Hawaii's last 2 games on the mainland? This one shouldn't be much different.

 

[Zeke]

It was right up there all day on Bovada but they have lines knowing they have square clients. Went first half under 30.

Thanks for your input dude. Curious if you're doing well. You obviously put in one hell of an effort. I personally don't care how much you risk or exactly what your record is but given the clear devotion you put into this I hope it's paying off for you.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

It was right up there all day on Bovada but they have lines knowing they have square clients. Went first half under 30.

Thanks for your input dude. Curious if you're doing well. You obviously put in one hell of an effort. I personally don't care how much you risk or exactly what your record is but given the clear devotion you put into this I hope it's paying off for you.

Thx, Zeke - yeah, doing very well this season. 2nd 9+ unit week in a row.

 

[dogman]

If I knew SC I would bet he is getting ready for next week's games. Good job all around.

 

[dogman]

Also, if you're beating the closers as SC does on most off his games there's a good chance he will win going forward.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

You need to post more so that you don't sound like a ghost shill, dogman, lol. He and I have been exchanging messages. Yes, getting ready as fast as I can...