The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Bowl Games Thread

T

TheSportsCruncher

Pretty much a regular
I didn't post my plays from last week here or on my website, and haven't even tallied it yet as I've been doing nothing but prepping for the Bowls, but I suspect I was down a unit or two last week, ahead on totals but not so lucky on sides. I did get a bit of luck though on my only big 3% play of the week with FLA +17.5. As such, the bankroll is up probably a little less than 70% on the year. With such a good regular season under the belt I'm rolling the dice on a few more plays than usual, as my numbers have been sharper as the season progresses, and teams tend to play closer to their season averages in the Bowls as well. Plus it's Bowl season, it's the Holiday season, and I rarely need incentive to press even small edges against the line anyway, lol.

Let's kick this baby off with a pre-Bowl Game, Army vs Navy. I've got an 0.8% investment on the Under 53.

When it comes to Army vs Navy, familiarity breeds defense. They both run the triple option and can obviously prepare to defend it better than a team whose offense doesn't normally run it. Army held Air Force (the other triple option academy team) to 0.5 yards less per carry than Army usually allows, which is better differential than any team has done against Air Force all year. On pure yards per carry, though, nobody defended Air Force better than Navy did this year. Navy surrendered just 3.6 ypc to Air Force, 1.8 less ypc than Air Force usually averages. That's bad news for the Army offense that only throws the ball a few times a game. On the other hand, Navy was still able to run for a better than average ypc average than Air Force usually allows. That's also bad news for Army, with a weaker run defense than Air Force has. You have to go back to 2005 to find the last annual game between these two that scored 50+ points (60+ scored in that particular game). Navy may have their best offense ever which is why this game is lined above 20 points. Army will be wrapping up a disappointing 2 win campaign, but there will obviously be no quit for them in this service academy rivalry game. I expect Navy's offense to still do reasonably well, while Army struggles. The 4th quarter should be pretty boring with Navy potentially running a bunch of dive plays to protect QB Reynolds from injury. Even if Navy scores a fair amount in the first half it should tail off in the second half, keeping the final score just under the current total. More than three touchdowns is a lot to cover -- Navy is certainly capable in this match up but my numbers suggest an Army cover, and that's not even taking into account the fact that if anything, Army will do a better job defensively against Navy's run than they do against an opponent who doesn't run a similar offense.

***Late breaking news after I wrote the write up -- Navy HC Niumatololo is the front runner to take over the HC vacancy at BYU. Distractions like that might have no effect, will rarely have a positive and will sometimes having a negative affect on a team. Distractions = negative EV overall for a team. If he takes the job it will most likely be announced sometime after this game, which will potentially hurt them much more for the Bowl game against PITT.

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Here's the match up grid and write up for one my top plays tomorrow. The TSCMUG's and write ups for the rest of Saturday's games are up on my website. Enjoy the Bowling Season and good luck to everyone starting tomorrow!

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* I think Georgia State wins the "Most Improved Team of 2015" award. This is a team that had two total wins in its previous three seasons -- and in the first of those 3 seasons they were still an FCS team! A lot of their improvement came in the second half of the season, including categories that they were poor in early in the season. They started the season really struggling on pass defense (except for the game against Oregon, when backup QB Lockie played for the injured Adams), but they finished up really well against the weaker passing teams in conference play. SJSU is right in that range of not particularly good pass offenses, ranking just 93rd. SJSU did finish with a solid improvement in their passing in their final two games, however, so that will balance out GAST's late season defensive improvement.

* GAST is a pretty awful running team (2nd worst by my rankings), but fortunately for them SJSU has only the 115th ranked run defense. SJSU's run defense had one foot in the grave by the time the season ended, really, and their pass defense wasn't faring much better. Fortunately for GAST they don't have to rely on their running game much, because they have a good passing game with QB Arbuckle that did very well in conference play against anyone not named "Appalachian State," who they played back in week #6. After that game they had 5 "best" games of pass offense in their final 7, matching or exceeding their opponent's usual average allowed in all 7 games. They didn't play a very tough schedule, overall, but momentum and confidence are on their side.

* SJSU's running game was up and down during the season, but finished up the season on a bit of an uptick. Many of you have heard of RB Tyler Ervin, he's a solid runner with a 5.6 ypc average, but there's no real depth behind him. He had 7 times as many carries this season as the next RB on their team. I have GAST's rush defense ranked ahead of SJSU's rush offense. GAST played pretty decent rush defense all year, and had a phenomenal closing game against Georgia Southern, holding them to 3.3 yards less per carry than they usually average in a 34-7 win.

* GAST won their final four regular season games and the line opened them as a dog in every one of those, I believe. I think GAST's momentum carries over and they get another straight up win as a dog in their first ever FBS Bowl game.
 
The recommended investments for tomorrow were:

2%
UNM +12 VS ARIZ
GAST +5 VS SJSU

0.8%
BYU +3 (EV) VS UTAH
BYU VS UTAH UNDER 54

0.7%
APP -9 (-107) VS OHIO
 
it has been a pleasure reading ur thread this season Cruncher , very nice work
GL the rest of the way
:cheers:
 
I've got a Christmas Eve game for you, one you should bet Santa Claus' entire plate of cookies on, so that Santa can have twice as many cookies!

In a game of contrasting offensive styles, Cincinnati will try to win this game by air, San Diego State by land. The key injury coming into this contest is that of SDSU QB Smith, who is supposedly out for the year after missing the final regular season game against Air Force. Dave, you have some information on his injury, though, right?

* If Smith ends up being a no go, local kid and Freshman Chapman will be the QB. He played pretty well against Air Force, so I'm of a mind to think that SDSU's runcentric offense won't suffer too much from Smith's absence. Chapman is the better runner of the two.

* San Diego State is a team that put up some poor stats early in the season. Consequently, after righting the ship midway through the season they are probably the #1 team for in-season positive trending, when combining the 4 main categories. They are tied for 2nd place for the most upward trending rush offense, 17th in pass offense, 15th in pass defense, and 37th in rush defense. As such they provided some great winning betting opportunities down the stretch -- in their final 5 games I bet on them 3 times, against CSU, UNLV and NEV and won all 3. They match up very well against CIN and I'm showing huge value on them.

*SDSU's overall season rushing ranking is pretty average, but as I mentioned they are running extremely hot right now. In their first 6 games SDSU failed to match the ypc average that their opponent usually allows in any games. I don't know how much the return of Senior starting right guard Darrell Greene after a 6 game suspension had to do with it, but In their final 6 game they exceded their opponents' average ypc allowed in every game, averaging 5.7 ypc in those games. Enter Cincinnati, a team with one of the worst run defenses in the FBS. The Bearcats have only once this season held a team to less than its usual ypc average, though they still gave up 266 rush yards in that loss against Houston. In their final against ECU it was only the second time in the Bearcats' other 10 FBS games that they didn't have a "worst" qualifying game of run defense, and ECU is a pretty bad running team. CIN has had 7 "worst" qualifying games of run defense against teams with inferior running offenses than SDSU's. CIN has a fairly young defense that gets younger the closer you get to the line of scrimmage. They don't have a single Senior in their defensive line rotation. They'll be up against an SDSU offensive line comprised of all Juniors and Seniors. CIN actually has, though, my 19th best ranked pass defense. Expect to see CIN put an extra defender in the box and challenge SDSU to beat them through the air. It will be the same philosophy but flipped to defend the pass for SDSU. CIN is a pretty average running team while SDSU has my 16th ranked run defense. SDSU's pass defense is a little better than average, and as mentioned finished the season playing well -- but CIN has the most potent aerial attack that SDSU has seen since week #2 against CAL when the Bears torched the SDSU secondary (who was down a starting safety at the time) pretty handily. I think both teams will get theirs, honestly, so I like the Over. I also think SDSU enjoys the greater offensive mismatch, and my numbers project them to ride that to a healthy victory. There is a little uncertainty, though, with SDSU's inexperienced freshman QB and CIN having a stronger offense than SDSU has faced in a very long time.

*** CIN's QB Kiel is a scratch for the game now, which adds more value to SDSU, but lessens the Over play. Still, I like the Over for a med-small play.

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clowncar said:
good luck the rest of the way crunch
Click to expand...

Thanks, Kyle -- solid Bowl work for you so far, been enjoying your write ups. I unfortunately got stuck with a bad Over number on the game last night with Kiel being out. I would have downgraded the play at least. Such are the perils of early Christmas shopping. It does work both ways though -- I have LOU +3 coming up for an even bigger play. :)
 
Was at my folks with the family the last few days, so didn't post here. I should be more diligent the rest of the way at the home base.

*** The write up below was written before the Navy-Army game. While Navy had a down offensive game against Army that was to be expected somewhat. I don't think there's any reason to not expect a bounce back. ***


Navy was another team I liked down the stretch, covering 3 in a row until losing in their final game to Houston. Time after time HOU QB Ward escaped the pocket on 3rd Down to run for a first. Houston converted 16 of 19 3rd Downs that game -- it was a frustrating one to watch, lol. I put a smaller play in on Navy in this game already, but there are some reasons to be cautious. For one, Navy still has a game against Army to play, in which maintaining the health of QB Reynolds is paramount. Secondly, the PITT defense is pretty solid across the board. They defend the run well, though their absolute worst game of the season was against GT, who also runs the triple option. Third, PITT ended the regular season running the ball very well. After not matching the ypc average that their opponent usually allows in their first seven games, they exceeded it by an average of 1.2 ypc in their final four games. Pitt's passing game has been really consistent, if not spectacular. They had only one "best" game all season and only "worst" as well, in their final game loss against Miami. The unheralded half of Navy's team is their defense, which you don't hear much about, but they are pretty good, if at times inconsistent. I rank them 29th overall with 8 "best" and 5 "worst" games. In that final game against Houston Navy gave up 100 more total yards than they had all season -- sigh...as I said, QB Ward was just unbelievably slippery that game. If things play out mostly to season averages, with a bit of a boost to PITT for recent play even, Navy should still win by 10 points. PITT QB Peterman has a little mobility, but he's no Greg Ward Jr., I'll bet on that.



Recommended plays were Under 56 when the line opened, and Navy -3 yesterday, 1% each.

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I project this game to be the 5th highest scoring Bowl game, with great value on the Over opening line. Both teams have decent defenses, but more than that, they obviously have great offenses. My numbers rank them right next to each other with AFA at 14th and CAL at 15th. AFA does run the triple option, running on 83% of their plays, but when they do throw it's for a very high ypp average, usually to the tight end streaking right down the middle of the field. In spite of the higher % of run plays, AFA runs at an offensive tempo that is still slightly faster than average. They aren't insanely slow like Army (slowest paced FBS team by 2.6 seconds), or reasonably slows like Navy (14th slowest). CAL, as a pass-centric team, has an even faster overall pace, at 22.5 spp (vs AFA's 24.7). AFA ended the season trending up on offense while trending slightly down on defense. CAL finished the season trending slightly down on defense as well. My system of line-making is generally going to favor the team that projects to run consistently well versus a team that should pass consistently well, as running is the more consistent way to gain first downs and score in the red zone. As such, I like Air Force to pull the upset here. CAL QB Goff is a great QB, with 6 "best" passing games vs. zero "worst," but teams with a pass defense in the same range as AFA's have done a reasonably good job of keeping CAL's passing game in check, especially in the second half of the season.

I recommended a 2% investment on the Over 63 at opening, and a 1% investment on AFA +6.5.

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God Damn refs just took away Air Force's center fielder. I actually don't like that even for the bigger Over play because both plays are in jeopardy if CAL slows down with a 4th quarter lead and Air Force has to get away from their game plan. Air Force has looked a bit slower paced than usual, though. Would like to see more speed between plays on their part, but it looks like it will only happen if they fall behind late...so there's that.
 
Ya I have same plays as you and I think it is bad for AFA more than over. Pace may have just been a miscalculation on my part on total - statistically they move quick but have also shown they will strategically slow it down a lot. Get the feeling we will need big plays for an over, something AFA doesn't give up much but cal is willing to.
 
On that botched CAL field goal fake, huge mistake by the AFA defender jumping on the ball when it was 4th down and Air Force had 4 men standing around the ball versus one punter on the ground. Worst case scenario the punter snags the ball and nothing changes, best case scenario scoop and score. This has been a very frustrating last few minutes, lol. And CAL has a defender in the QB's face on every roll out, how is that happening.

Well, CAL didn't take long to get those points back, lol. Redemption for #1.

I'm hoping for 3 2nd quarter touchdowns so I have a middle window for the Over 63. If Cal does the bulk of the 2nd quarter scoring I will middle some out. If Air Force keeps it close than probably not.
 
There are two Baylors -- one with either QB Collins or Stidham, and one without. They will be the Baylor without for the Bowl game, though I guess at the very least they get "QB" Johnson back from a concussion. Johnson, as a converted WR, is still a bit of an unknown factor, as the bulk of his throws this year came in a tremendous downpour against TCU. What with UNC being much better defending the pass than the run, and with Baylor being a run-heavy offense to begin with, don't look for Baylor to ask Johnson to throw them to a victory in this game. Baylor gets RB Linwood back as well, giving them 3 RBs who've averaged more than 6 ypc this year. That's solid. Still, Baylor's running game hasn't been all that down the stretch, most of their stellar stats came early in the season against the likes of SMU, Rice and TTU. The only team with an above average run defense that BAY has shredded this year is WVU's. UNC is going to have to challenge BAY to pass, which is a pick your poison situation as they're bound to give up a long TD pass or three as a result. UNC's offense was strong and consistent all year, not having a single "worst" qualifying game running or passing all season. Perhaps surprisingly, the same is true of Baylor's defense -- consistently good with only one bad game against KSU. Ultimately, though, UNC's offense outranks Baylor's defense across the board, and I project that to get them the victory.

*** For Baylor, the following players are out: QB Stidham, WR Coleman, RB Linwood.

I recommended a 0.8% play on UNC +3 when the lines opened, and am adding 0.5% more on UNC -1.5 today.

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Leonard Fournette is really looking forward to seeing some holes again. It's been awhile -- the poor guy has suffered, and is now out of the picture for the Heisman race he previously led back when there were, you know, holes. He's going to see Eastern Michigan sized holes in this one, that game way back when where LSU averaged 8.1 ypc in a game. LSU had a fairly tough schedule in the final month when their season disintegrated, but the problem was nearly just as much one of defense as offense. They only had one bad running game in that stretch (against ARK, a loss) and one bad passing game (against TA&M, a win). I wouldn't worry about their offense in this game. LSU's defense has had just one "worst" game against the run (ARK) and pass (FLA - pre Grier suspension) each all year. That hangover they had after the Alabama loss was a big one, they got murdered in the run match ups at home against ARK. TTU's running game is actually very good (10th) and has the match up advantage over LSU's run defense, but not nearly as much as the aforementioned reverse for LSU. TTU's pass offense is also good (21st), but not it won't be quite so advantageous against LSU's 3rd ranked pass defense. I like LSU to wear down TTU in this game, adding buffering scores late into the game with their bruising running game. Lay the chalk, and love it.

*** TTU WR Lauderdale has been suspended, and 3 other defensive players have announced they are transferring.

I recommended LSU -6 as a 2% play, and a two team teaser with APP -1 and LSU -1 for 1%.

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They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. It's also the most pathetic form of scamming when it comes to intellectual property. A forum member forwarded me this email in which this guy is copying my plays and using an altered form of my write ups. He included a write up for a game which I didn't post on any forums or on my website, so it was a subscriber, sadly.

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Yesterday WINNERS
If you haven't joined us this season, you
still have time to get out of that BIG HOLE!

LOOK AS WHAT YOU MISSED TUESDAY

TUESDAY December 29, 2015 – TOP PLAYS or BEST BETS***​
[h=2]BOWL GAME “TOTAL” OF THE MONTH[/h][h=2](241)***AIR FORCE / CALIFORNIA Over 68 (3 Units)[/h][h=2]WINNER![/h][h=2]Raw Number: Air Force by 3[/h]We project this game to be one of the highest scoring Bowl game so far, and we have already seen some big Over covers. Both teams have decent defenses, but more they both have exceptional offenses. We rank them both in the top 10.
AIR FORCE: runs the triple option 83% of the time at a very fast pace. We saw this same triple option yesterday with Navy put up 44 points against a Pittsburgh defense. They run the ball most of the time, but when they do throw it’s for a very high yards per play average with the tight end streaking right down the middle of the field.
The Cadets run at an offensive tempo that is still faster than average. They aren’t turtle slow like Army, or reasonably slows like Navy (14th slowest). Air Frce put up 35 vs Utah St and 38 vs Boise St which both have better Defense’s than Cal.
CALIFORNIA: is an out and out pass crazy team, with an even faster overall pace, at 22.5 seconds per play (vs AFA’s 24.7). After starting the season 5-0, they went bad and lost 4 straight against Utah, UCLA, USC, & Oregon. They beat Oregon St to become bowl eligible. QB Goff was 1st team Pac-12 & threw for 300+ yards 9 times including two games over 400, and a season high 542 yards & 5 touchdown’s in the finale. Goff should polish up his NFL resume with another 400 yd effort.
In bowl games we favor the team that projects to run consistently well versus a team that should pass consistently well, as running is the more consistent way to gain first downs and score in the red zone..

TUESDAY December 29, 2015 – TOP PLAYS or BEST BETS***​
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[h=2]BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH[/h][h=3](248) ***LSU -7 Over Texas Tech – (3 Units) [/h][h=3](248) LSU / TEXAS TECH Over 75 – (No Play)[/h][h=3]Raw Number: LSU by 19[/h]LSU: Leonard Fournette is really looking forward to seeing some BIG RUNNING holes. It’s been awhile — the poor guy has suffered, and is now out of the picture for the Heisman race. He will see those Eastern Michigan sized holes where LSU averaged 8.1 yards per carry in that game. Fournette was the Heisman front runner. Fournette was shut down vs Alabama. Fournette vs a rush Defense allowing 5.9 yards per carry is a total mismatch.
The Tigers then lost to Arkansas & Ole Miss, and it appeared Miles would be let go. They beat Texas A&M in the finale – This is a “Statement Game for Les Miles”.
LSU had a fairly tough schedule in the final month when their season disintegrated, but the problem was nearly just as much one of defense as offense. LSU entered this season as a National Title contender & while they fell short, they still have 8 wins for the 16th straight season. I wouldn’t worry about their offense in this game. LSU’s defense has had just one “BAD” game against the run when they played Arkansas.
TEXAS TECH: running game is actually very good (10th) and has the match up advantage over LSU’s run defense, but not nearly as much as the aforementioned reverse for LSU. Tech’s pass offense is also good (21st), but it won’t be advantageous against LSU’s 3rd ranked pass defense.
Despite this game being played in the state of Texas, LSU is 250 miles closer. LSU will wear down Texas Tech in this game, adding buffering scores late into the game with their bruising running game. Lay the chalk, for our “December Bowl Game of the Month”.
HERE ARE THE REST OF THE GAMES...t.

TUESDAY December 29, 2015 – TOP PLAYS or BEST BETS***​
​
[h=3](244) BAYLOR +3.5 Over North Carolina – (1 Unit) WINNER![/h][h=3](244) NORTH CAROLINA / BAYLOR Over 68.5 – (Lean) WINNER![/h][h=3]Raw Number: North Carolina by 2[/h]BAYLOR BEARS: There are two Baylor teams — the one’s with either quarterback Collins or QB Stidham, and the one without. This team will be the Baylor squad WITHOUT. They will at the least get “QB” Johnson back from a concussion. Johnson, as a converted wide receiver, is still an unknown factor, as the bulk of his throws this year came in a tremendous downpour against TCU.
While North Carolina is much better defending the pass than the run, and with Baylor being a run-heavy offense to begin with, don’t look for Baylor to ask 3rd string quarterback Johnson to throw them into the record books.
Baylor entered the season a legit contender for a National title as they returned 18 starters. The Bears improved to 8-0, but then lost to Oklahoma. Stidham was then injured in that game, then lost their final two games. They lost #3 quarterback (today’s starter) Johnson vs Texas and used 4th string wide receiver Hawthorne at quarterback. Baylor’s running game hasn’t been much down the stretch, but had early success against the likes of SMU, Rice and Texas Tech.
NORTH CAROLINA: is going to have to challenge Baylor to throw passes. UNC’s offense was strong and consistent all year, not having a single “bad” qualifying game running or passing all season. Perhaps surprisingly, the same is true of Baylor’s defense — consistently good with only one bad game against Kansas St. UNC’s offense outranks Baylor’s defense across the board.
North Carolina lost their opener to South Carolina, then won 11 straight and were within striking distance of #1 Clemson in the ACC Championship game, but had a bogus offside penalty on an onside kick.
Baylor coach Briles will have the QB situation in much better shape with extra time to heal and prepare. Baylor was +92.5 yards per game vs bowl teams and NC just +19.5. We like the now underrated and angry underdogs, the BAYLOR BEARS
TUESDAY December 29, 2015 – TOP PLAYS or BEST BETS***​
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[h=3](245) NEVADA +3.5 Over Colorado St. – (Lean) WINNER![/h][h=3](245) NEVADA / COLORADO ST Over 55.5 – (1 Unit) Lost[/h][h=3]Raw Number: Colorado St by 1[/h]A Bowl game with two Mountain West Conference teams that didn’t play each other during the regular season with nobody lamenting the fact…Yikes!
NEVADA: might be my lowest ranked team (99th) to make it into a Bowl Game. Yesterday we had Minnesota win a bowl game with a losing record, so who knows. Their signature win came against New Mexico (who covered as our Best Bet over Arizona in the New Mexico Bowl ) right before the Lobos finally started gelling on both sides of the ball and got real good. Nevada lost to both UNLV and Wyoming this year.
COLORADO STATE: At first glance you’d think CSU had a pretty good chance of easily covering this game as only a 3 point favorite, but here are reasons for not liking them in this game. Colorado State’s run defense — played 5 “BAD”games and zero “GOOD” games by our numbers. With the exception of a bad passing game against Fresno State, CSU’s offense was improving.
If two teams are each gaining roughly 5 yards per rush both offense will have success and the total is only 55, so we will side with the OVER.
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ComputerPrediction
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http://www.computerprediction.com
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Music City Bowl




December 30, 2015


|


Paul A. Compton








Both of these teams struggled with finding consistent QB play at various points of the season, plugging in starters like fingers in a dam that they couldn't quite contain from seeping into losses. With that being said, they both ended the season with above average passing statistics when you look at the compensated stats. That inconsistency did show up when looking at "best" and "worst" ratios for passing with LOU at 5-3 and TA&M at 4-4. What I like about LOU in this game is that LOU's better passing games were back-loaded (toward the end of the season), while TA&M's were front-loaded (barring that huge game against a good but inconsistent VAN pass defense). TA&M QB Allen was benched for a couple of games after an insanely bad game against Ole' Miss. He later admitted to having suffered a sprained AC joint the previous week against ALA. He's back as the starter, and that's a good thing for TA&M, as he's a far better passer (when healthy!) than Murray. So two of those "worst" games for TA&M are attributed to the injury and a Murray start. So yeah, it's actually kind of hard to say that TA&M's passing game isn't capable right now of the big games they've had this season. Which is why I love the Over in this game! Seriously, opening at 48 was a gift, as I anticipate the number rising to the mid 50s by gametime. And I do project TA&M to have a better day passing the ball than TA&M. LOU's young offensive line struggled early in the season, but with both the run game and passing game trending upward at the end of the season it looks like they're starting to come together better. But you wanna' talk about up and down? Look at LOU's running game in their final 5 games. They started with a 1.6 ypc game against Wake, followed by a 7.0 ypc game against SYR and a 7.2 ypc game against UVA, then a 0.0 ypc game @ PITT and then finishing with a 7.9 ypc game against Kentucky. Hello! A little consistency please! Fortunately for LOU, TA&M's rush defense is closer to the bad rush defenses they had stellar games against in that stretch versus the 25th or so ranked two defenses they were stymied by. LOU will need that success on the ground because TA&M is very tough against the pass, ranked 5th. TA&M's rush offense is ranked pretty near LOU's, actually a little bit above, but they finished the season on a downward trend, failing to match the ypc that their opponent usually allows in 8 of their final 9 games. It was against a pretty tough schedule but it's not encouraging considering LOU's 7th ranked run defense. With LOU's ground advantage exceeding TA&M's aerial advantage I like LOU to win as the "running dog." *** After I wrote this both of TA&M's main QBs, Allen and Murray are transferring from the school. As such, there's even more value on LOU in this game, with a little less on the Over, though still some on the current 50.5 after opening at 48.

Recommended plays when the lines opened:

LOU +3 1.5% play
Over 48 2% play, bought off it with Under 50.5 (-113) for 2% after the TA&M QBs announced their transfers.

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Orange Bowl: Clemson vs Oklahoma

* The market has spoken, and what it has said is that Oklahoma is the second best team in the country right now, behind only Alabama. That's right where I put them, with Clemson third. Earlier in the season, after week 8, I had Clemson ranked 1st and OKLA 4th. This speaks to how both teams finished up the season, with Oklahoma playing its best ball while Clemson tapered off a bit.


* Versus preseason expectations Clemson was the bigger over-achiever of the two teams. In my preseason analysis of Clemson I said that with a healthy Watson the team had no ceiling and could make a surprise run at an undefeated season. That being said, because of their lack of a run game and the graduation attrition on defense I projected them win to just about 8 games.


* Oklahoma was a team I was high on pre-season. My projections had them winning every game with a money line converted win estimation of 9.5 games. I did recommend the Over 8.5 season wins for the Sooners. They had better injury luck than the other top teams in their conference which helped them win the Big 12.


* Looking at the statistical match ups, which is the primary basis of my handicapping, these teams are pretty close across the board. They both rank in my top 25 in all four of the main statistical categories, rush and pass offense, and rush and pass defense. Both teams have good pass offenses, and both have good pass defenses -- either team is capable of having the better day passing the ball in this game. CLEM's rush offense and OKLA's rush defense are ranked very closely, at 22nd, and 21st. This leaves us with the final, and I think, deciding match up -- Oklahoma's 17th ranked rush offense versus CLEM's 6th ranked rush defense. By pure rankings you'd think CLEM would have the rushing advantage, but that probably won't be the case because of the in-season trending numbers: Oklahoma finished on a big upward trend, tying PITT for the highest ranking in that category. The in-season trending is a simple look at the correlation of a team's performance over time. Conversely, Clemson's rush defense finished on a downward trend, tied with the 14th highest decline. Remember this about in-season trending though -- it doesn't mean that Clemson's rush defense ended the season playing as the 14th worst unit, it means that they were playing so good early in the season that when they played just a hair below average in their final 6 games that the disparity between the first half and second half numbers was the 14th worst.


* CLEM has a good defensive line, but they are not deep with almost exclusively freshman available to relieve the starting four. The same is true of 2 of their 3 backup linebackers. It looks like they got tired down the stretch. Even then, CLEM had two "best," quote unquote, rush defense games in their final 3 games. I have a system where a "best" qualifying game of rush defense or offense is earned when a team gains 0.7 yards more per carry or allows 0.7 yards less per carry than the opponent usually gains or allows. For passing, the "best" cutoff number is 1.1 yards per pass better than the opponent's usual averages. I mention these "best," and conversely, "worst," qualifying games now because I reference them a lot in my write ups and analysis.


* OKLA early in the season struggled on figuring out how to implement and execute the running game in their new Air Raid offense. I read that it wasn't until after the Texas game that they went to a zone blocking scheme. Whatever the case might have been, after that everything clicked. Over their final 7 games they averaged 300 run yards per game, and ended the season on a 6 game "best" streak.


* With Oklahoma's improved running game and Clemson's declining run defense, and even a slight edge in the passing match ups for Oklahoma -- it adds up to enough to make Oklahoma about a 10 point favorite for me. The line opened at OKLA -3 and went to -4 in a day, more or less, so early sharp action was on Oklahoma.


* If revenge counts for anything, Oklahoma has the advantage after Clemson annihilated them in their Bowl game last year.


* ESPN All-Big 12 CB Thomas for OKLA was arrested for failure to appear in court over an unpaid speeding ticket, and I'm not sure of his status for this game.


* CLEM WR Cain suspended for failing a drug test


* OKLA DT Watson inactive after sustaining a concussion in practice Monday.


Recommended investments were OKLA -3 0.5% and more with OKLA -3.5 (-105) for 0.5%. Over 62 (-129) 0.7%.

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Cotton Bowl: Alabama vs Michigan State

In this battle of the middle seeds of the 4 team playoff, let's take a look to see if any team has enough matchup advantages to warrant a wager. ALA's run game with Henry is, of course, good (my 8th ranked), but they haven't been as dominant as you might think. They opened the season strong in their first few games but since then they've only had 3 "best" games vs. 2 "worst." Those best games all came against the less highly ranked run defenses they faced over that stretch, as well. They weren't poor run defenses, with the average rank still being a little above average, but they didn't tear it up versus the good run defenses they played. But make no mistake, they still overall did pretty well against those defenses. MSU's rush defense was the more dominant unit down the stretch, and finished up the regular season ranked higher than ALA's run offense, at 4th. In 3 of their final 4 games they held top 30 running games to an average of 2.5 yards less per carry than those teams usually gain. My projections say ALA will average a fairly modest 4.0 ypc, when it's all added up. That's still a far cry better than MSU rates to gain on the ground. ALA has the clear #1 best run defense, and they had 11 "best" games of it in 12 FBS games this season. It's so hard to get anything going against them -- only two teams rushed for more than 100 yards against them this season, Georgia and Tennessee, both top 20 running games. MSU comes into this contest ranked 77th, but on an upward trend as they battled some injuries mid-season. In their final 5 games against rush defenses with an average rank of 28.8 they ran for 0.4 yards more per carry than those teams usually allow. So 3 yards and a cloud of dust with some moving of the sticks should happen now and then for the Spartans. Well, maybe 2.5 yards and a cloud of dust, lol. ALA QB Coker had a couple of poor games in the first month of the season, but since than has actually been pretty solid. ALA has faced a really tough schedule of pass defenses (6th toughest) and they've still managed to have 4 "best" vs. 0 "worst" games of pass offense from week 5 on. MSU's pass defense is pretty good (24th), but ALA has had success against higher ranked units than that. ALA's pass defense started off the season very strong, with 5 "best" games vs one "worst" game -- the loss to Ole Miss where the Rebels scored on two long TD passes -- one a tipped ball lucky play and the other a busted coverage on a last second pop pass. Since then, though, they've only been just a little better than average, with no "best" or "worst" games in their final 6 FBS games. MSU's pass game is down this year, but they're going to have to get something going in the air to have any chance of winning this game. I liked the Under 49 when it opened, not so much now at 47, and the line of ALA -9.5 is almost right on my number. I for one will be cheering for a boring puntfest, lol.

Recommended investment of 1% on the Under 49 when the lines opened.

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The SEC is still the toughest conference in college football, no matter what the anecdotal evidence wielding haters might say. As such, Tennesse had the 5th hardest schedule this year, while 10 of the top 12 toughest schedules went to SEC teams. To finish up 8-4 is not a bad season for TENN, that was the preseason betting number Over/Under set for them. Northwestern, however, far exceeded expectations, winning 10 games versus an O/U line of 6 wins. They did so by catching some teams at the right time and winning all the close games, which involves more than your fair share of luck. NW did it with pretty consistent defense, and what I wouldn't even call a one-dimensional offense -- more like a halfdimensional offense: they could run the ball okay at times, pretty consistently in every game accept their two blowout losses, with a gawdawful pass offense that 7 "worst" games on the season and not even a single "best." You can count on three fingers the number of times they threw for 6+ ypp in a game. Yes, NW faced a pretty tough schedule of B1G defenses...but still. Quite simply, that kind of offensive "production" shouldn't work against Tennessee, who has a pretty good defense, especially against the run. They held ALA to fewer rush yards than any other team this year. NW finished the year playing pretty tough run defense, but their pass defense was slipping. As such it should be a pretty good battle against a tough running Tennesse team. With even luck, TENN should get the win and cover, if just barely.



Recommended investments were: TENN -8 0.7%, 2 team teaser TENN -2 & ORE -1 teaser 1%, Under 49 (-107 5D) 0.7%

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Florida vs Michigan:

These teams feature some interesting in-season trends. Florida's offense obviously suffered after starting QB Grief was suspended for PED's -- they ended the season trending down both in running and passing. Michgian had an amazingly dominant defense to open the season, starting with 7 straight "best" games of run defense and 5 of 7 "best" games of pass defense. Their pass defense had back to back lapses against MSU and MINN, but then rebounded with 3 straight "best" games. No such rebound for the Wolverine run defense, though, as they had 1 "best" and 2 "worst" games in their final 5. The defensive slide coincided with the losses of Senior defensive linemen Ojemudia and Glasgow, both lost for the season in mid-November. Offensively, I don't know if there's another team in the FBS that went through as much of a shift in where their offensive success came from during the course of the season as MICH. They started with a 4-1 ratio of "best" and "worst" running games, with a concurrent 1-3 record of "best" and "worst" passing games. In the second half of the season the running game sagged to an 0-4 ratio, while the passing game went 2-0, but at least matched or exceeded the opponent's usual ypp surrendered average in every one of their final 6 games. QB Ruddock and the MICH passing game really improved as the season went along. With the passing games headed in opposite directions, FLA is going to need success on the ground to have a chance in this game. The problem is, even with QB Harris' mediocre stats weighing upon FLA's pass game rankings, they still rank MUCH higher at passing the ball then running, 33rd to 95th. Ouch. Florida had a good ground game last year, this year has been pretty abysmal really, and I doubt anyone would have predicted they'd make it to the SEC championship game if they saw the rushing statistics Florida put up this year ahead of time. 7 "worst" games of run offense, and only one "best" against Georgia. Sure they played a tough schedule of SEC defenses, but the "best" and "worst" are based on compensated stats, so they really were that bad running the ball. The Gators then, logically, must have won with defense. They have my 3rd best rush defense, and 16th best pass defense. so yes. The running games have an equal not-so-hot projection of 3.2 ypc, while MICH has a .6 ypp advantage in the passing game. As a whole with the other metrics that go into my line that actually doesn't give MICH enough of an advantage to cover the 4 point spread, but enough to win by less than that. Still, there's no way I'd touch FLA in this game. The defenses have all the match up advantages, but with MICH's passing game being the one match up that has a chance to be the difference maker in this game I'd MICH or nobody in this contest. If you need some action, take the Under and hope for no action. *** Michigan's DC Durkin will be the new head coach at Maryland.

Recommended investment: Under 41 (-115) 0.7%

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Notre Dame vs Ohio State

Notre Dame ended the regular season with my #1 rated offense, on the strength of the #1 run offense and #11 pass offense. If starting QB Zaire hadn't been injured a couple of the games into the season, who knows? Maybe ND would be undefeated and the #1 seed in the playoffs right now. As good as backup Kizer has been, Zaire had a higher QB rating and yard per carry average than Kizer, though over a pretty small sample size of play. ND ended the season with 5 "best" running games in their final 6, against an average ranked rush defense of 30. Solid. OSU with their 22nd ranked rush defense better be ready. Unfortunately for ND, their run defense needs to be even MORE ready, as the disparity between their run defense and OSU's run offense is even greater with respective rankings of 61st and 7th. ND's pass defense isn't as good as my final ranking of 30th for them either, honestly. They benefitted from playing Texas early, Clemson on a super soaked field and doing a good job against Navy on a limited number of pass atttempts (6). Teams with above average pass offenses were able to throw the ball well against ND in the second half of the season. Much has been made of OSU's QB controversies on and off the field this season. From week #4 on, though, their passing game was pretty good, averaging 0.9 yards more per pass than their opponent usually allows. The only time in that stretch where they at least failed to match the opponent's usualy defensive average was in the nightmare game against Michigan State. Where many teams may have not given their best effort in their final game after a probable playoff eliminating loss, OSU apparently had some good practices because their offense turned in their best performance of the season in a rout of Michigan. Maybe some of that spunk will carry over into the Bowl game. When Urban Meyer is the coach you should never bet on a letdown. Anyway, the moral of this story is that both offenses rate to have pretty good days, and being balanced units as they are there's no cheating against the run or the pass. My numbers don't show any value on the spread, but the opening total of 53.5 provides tremendous value on the Over (still only 54 as I write this), as this game should score into the low 60s.

Recommended investment: Over 53.5 1%

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Thx 1987

Boy, things were looking really rosy today until the TENN pick 6 killed my Under 49. I guess it's not Bowl season without at least one gut-wrenching loss or heart-exploding win in the final 10 seconds, lol. Was looking to sweep on that game with TENN -8 and the 1st leg of a teaser with ORE -1.
 
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