The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Bowl Games Thread

[TheSportsCruncher]

Yeah, just garbage bad luck today in the second halves on some marginal plays, but only down a little after going 2-0 on original recommended plays. Also have a couple of teasers needing one more leg tomorrow.

Iowa vs Stanford

The Hawkeyes and Cardinal square off in the "Close but no Cigar" Bowl of 2015, as both teams were in the bubble bloodbath of teams that didn't quite make into the small college football playoff tub that only fits four. Iowa has the most recent sting, coming up one 4th and 2 defensive play away from fitting in the final game of their season. Stanford, of course, started off the season with a bad loss and with an additional loss to Oregon was on the outside looking in, "Psycho" strings snapping, knife in hand, waiting for someone to falter inside. Instead they hitch the Hawks in a New Year's Day Bowl. Stanford should win this game because of superior talent and match ups in the passing game. Iowa actually rates to have a higher ypc average than STAN for in this game, but that will depend on Iowa RB Canzeri recovering from a bum ankle in time for this game. The Hawkeyes have a couple of decent backs behind him, but he's been their workhorse. Hogan and McCaffrey for STAN have been enough to beat most teams this season, but Iowa is a cut above your average team. This should be a close game, but I'm not looking to back the Hawkeyes unless the line were to rise to 7.5+ for some odd reason. There's a little bit of value on the Over, as both teams have good offensive balance coupled with fading run defenses for both teams as well.

Just today added a recommended investment on the Over 52 for 0.7% when that # was available, and adding Iowa +7 (-120) for 0.5%.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Oklahoma State vs Ole Miss

OKST HC Gundy says QB Mason should be ready to play Jan. 1st after undergoing foot surgery near the end of November. Mason is their primary passer while Rudolph comes in primarily for running plays. This is good news for OKST as they are going to have pass, pass, and pass some more to try and keep up in this game. OKST's running game is so bad that they had reeled off 7 "worst" performances in 8 games until rebouding with a "best" performance in their final game against OKLA -- a result aided by the fact that Mason was out so the run-centric Rudolph played all game. Rudolph actually had a really good game passing the ball against OKLA too, but had two costly interceptions. MISS' has my 20th ranked pass defense, but I don't think they are quite that good. They played ALA with 1st year starter QB Coker in week 3, with Coker improving as the season went along, and they played games against New Mexico State who'd just lost their starting QB and TA&M in the game where Kyle Allen played with a bad AC joint and was terrible. That accounts for half of their 6 "best" games, leaving them with an equal number of 3 "worst" games. They did, however, finish the season with back to back good games against LSU and MSST. MISS' run defense was pretty much solid throughtout with 7 "best" and zero "worst" games. Like I said, OKST won't win on the ground here. As for MISS they should score points a' plenty, and do it however they wish. OKST ranks 49th at both run and pass defense, vs. MISS' 26th ranked running game and 2nd ranked passing game. MISS finished up the season playing as good on offense as anybody in football, with 3 straight "best" running games and 4 straight "best" passing games, all against better defenses than OKST's. With both teams playing at an above average tempo on offense while passing more than your average team, I project this to be a very high scoring game with MISS getting the cover on the strength of being able to run it as well as pass. *** MISS DE Nkemdiche had some kind of an alcholol/drug related breakdown that saw him trash a hotel room, break through a window, and either fall or jump off a hotel balcony some 15 feet above ground to the ground below. He's in stable condition, but WTF? He's one of the top defensive NFL prospects in the country.

Recommended investments: Ole Miss -6.5 0.7% Over 68.5 0.7%

 

[dudleysdad]

its mason rudolph, one name dude

 

[dudleysdad]

the other QB is Walsh

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Doh, typo. I be's knowin' that. Glad I give you your weekly mini-troll, though.

 

[dudleysdad]

Doh, typo. I be's knowin' that. Glad I give you your weekly mini-troll, though.

how is that a troll???

relax

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas vs Kansas State

Give KSU some credit for bouncing back from a 6 game losing streak to win their final 3 to secure Bowl eligibility. The truth is they didn't play great ball to their -- they trailed against ISU and WVU and were a bit lucky to win those game. They had 1 "best" and 6 "worst" qualifying performances in those 3 games. Yeah, they just scraped by. ARK, for their part, did what they're starting to become known for -- struggle in the early season while playing very well down the stretch. They were 2 points shy of winning their final 5 FBS games against AUB, MISS, LSU, MSST and MIZZ. That's pretty solid. They had a 6-2 ratio of "best" and "worst" performances in their final 3 games. On top of that, ARK matches up pretty well against KSU. KSU is a run heavy offense and ARK defends the run really well, with my 5th ranked run defense. ARK's pass defense is well below average, and it will be up to KSU to exploit this as much as possible. KSU hasn't faced a pass defense as weak as ARK's since week #2 against UT-San Antonio, where they had their lone "best" game of pass offense on the season. Even if KSU does find some offensive success in this game, it's highly unlikely to match what ARK should be able to do. KSU's pass defense is pretty average ranking 62nd...and that won't be nearly good enough to contain ARK's #1 rated passing game. The only 3 games against 11 FBS opponents where ARK didn't have a "best" qualifying game of pass offense were against the 2nd, 12th and 8th ranked pass defenses of ALA, AUB and MIZZ, respectively. QB Allen and Co. weren't bad in those 3 games, either -- only against ALA did ARK throw for less yards than the opponent, in this case ALA, usually allows, and by just 0.4 yards. KSU will be a defensive disadvantage against ARK's run game as well, though the disparity is not as great as in the passing game. With both teams running more run plays than pass plays and at a slower than average tempo (especially ARK), and with only one team assured of offensive success (ARK), I projected some value on the Under against the opening number of 62.5. Too much of that value is gone on the currently available 59.5, though. I do project ARK to win by 14 points, but wouldn't recommend a play on them unless the line were for some reason drop to below 10 (unlikely).

Recommended investment: Under 62.5 1%

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Oregon vs TCU

*** Written before Boykin's suspension. Since the return of ORE QB Adams in week #7 the Duck have averaged 5.8 ypc and 12.0 ypp in their final 6 games. The PAC12 isn't known for stellar defense (with the exception of WASH, one of the teams played in that stretch), though, and TCU will actually be one of the better defenses ORE has faced since the WASH game. Still, TCU's defensive numbers are skewed because for half of the game against OKLA OKLA's offense did very little when starting QB Mayfield was knocked out of the game, and then they played Baylor in a monsoon where BAY was already without the services of their two actual QBs. So ORE, as balanced offense, is quite capable of doing to TCU what OKLA did in the first half of that game before Mayfield was knocked out. At the same time, though, TCU QB Boykin was injured and missed almost two full games and returned only for the monsoon Baylor game, where the conditions hurt his numbers. TCU's #1 receiver, Docston, was hurt in the same game as Boyking, further hurting TCU's passing game in their final 3 games. I've heard a rumor that he might actually be back for the Bowl game, but am not sure as of now. Either way, I expect the TCU game to rebound against an Oregon secondary that is actually the strength of the Oregon defense, I kid you not. ORE had a 3-2 ratio of "best" and "worst" pass defense qualifying games, and a much worse ratio of 2-6 on run defense, and they faced a much tougher schedule of pass offenses than run offenses to boot. Right now I project a 3 point Oregon victory, but considering that TCU's pass offense downward trend will probably rebound means this game should be closer to a 1 or 2 point Oregon victory. I recommended the Over 73.5 when it opened, but the value on the total is gone now at 78. This should be a fun, fun game to watch, with both teams ripping off big runs and passing plays.

Recommended investments: Over 73.5 (juiced out after Boykin's suspension) 1%, ORE +2 0.8%, TENN -2 and ORE -1 teaser (post Boykin suspension play) 1%

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Arizona State vs West Virginia:

West Virginia has been kind of an undervalued team this season, in my opinion, mostly because of some bad losses versus the better Big 12 conference-mates they had to play on the road this year. Then, in their final game at KSU they lost again, in spite of a statistically superior game. That sets up some value on the Mountaineers in this game. I recommended a play on them at +2.5 and the line is mostly down to a pick now. Both teams run a pretty up-tempo offense, especially WVU, but I don't think either team will have above average success offensively in this game. WVU's defense is actually pretty good, ranked 12th, versus their 39th ranked offense, while ASU's offense and defense rank pretty near each other at 49th and 46th. The only statistical match up advantage for either team will be for WVU's passing game versus ASU's 103rd ranked pass defense. ASU's blitz happy defense either sacks the QB or gives up big plays. As such it has made for a slightly inefficient defense, giving up an average of 33.7 points per game versus an FBS average of 32.0 ppg based on the yards allowed. WVU's defense allows 3.4 points less per game based on yards to point averages, by comparison. My only concern with backing WVU in this game is the in-season passing trends for both teams. WVU finished on a downward trend, with 5 "worst" games in their final 8, versus only 1 "best." ASU's passing game was really average for most of the season but finished with three really good games. If those trends hold ASU can win this game. Shoot, maybe I'll buy off my WVU play after all, lol.

Recommended investment: WVU +2.5 (-105) 1%

 

[~Utah]

With you on WVU, let's get it

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Let's hope, after the general run bad of the last couple of days. I'm guaranteed to be an okay winner in the Bowls regardless, but that Ducks game is starting to make glad this all ends soon, lol.