The "should not" thread Wed 7/11/18

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
Hey guys,

I am going to try something new here. I have bet baseball sparingly and in the past not successfully. The reason is because I seem to ignore all of the rules in GameHunter's legendary baseball thread. I bet big favs and too often miss out on value.

In order to combat this, I have been looking at lines from a "should not" angle, coming up with statements and using those statements for plays. You will see what I mean:

The Nationals should not be less than -145 against a pitcher as bad as Trevor Williams

The Mets should never be laying more than -140 given their inability to score, let alone to a hot team and a competent pitcher.

Shelby Miller pitching in coors should not have a total under 15 haha

Lance Lynn should not be a -200 or higher favorite against anybody ever

A major league team should not ever be a -400 or higher favorite over another.


Plays:

Nats -139
Phillies +142
Dbacks/Rockies over 11.5
Royals +187
Rangers +343
 
Makes a lot of sense to me. Really like that over at coors and lean phils havnt decided whether to take the plus money or the 1.5 runs tho. Gl
 
Absolutely love the “lance Lynn should never be that big a fav” and totally agree there. I’m small on kc and over in that one.
 
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