The Open Championship @ Royal Troon Discussion...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
The 4th and final major of the year is upon us, just over 6 months into the calendar year...

This is the 10th Open hosted at Royal Troon.

Previous Champions (last 5 times hosting):

2016 Henrik Stenson​
​
2004 Todd Hamilton​
​
1997 Justin Leonard​
​
1989 Mark Calcavecchia​
​
1982 Tom Watson​

We all remember that duel on Sunday in 2016 between Phil and Stenson. That was incredible.

Here is the FIELD list

Looking at the course...

The front nine generally plays downwind and provides plenty of birdie opportunities.

The back is much more challenging...

Par 71 layout.

Two of the par-5's are in the first 6 holes.

Three of the par 3's have some meat to them (200, 220 and 242). The hardest one though is the infamous "Postage Stamp" #8th.

Here is a course guide for those interested

The other hole to key on is #11, "The Railway"

Looking back 8 years ago at the last Open at Troon, we truly remember how that Sunday was Match Play. Stenson and Phil finished at -20 and -17. The next closest was JB Holmes at -6. Incredible.

Other notables from 2016...

Rory -4
Hatton -4
DJ -2
Reed -1
Finau E
Day +1
Spieth +2
Fowler +6


Safe to say, not a lot to really use from 2016. tournament for here.

So, that is my quick primer. Let's go ahead and start discussing the 152nd Open!
 
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Safe to say the only LIV golfer worth anything at the moment in these is Bryson. The rest have seemed like they've been on vacation for over a year. Also while it's easy to say no one will overlook a tournament like the Open, remember that there is actually another massive event less than two weeks after the Open this year in Paris. It just throws a different wrinkle into this season.
 
KJ said:
Safe to say the only LIV golfer worth anything at the moment in these is Bryson. The rest have seemed like they've been on vacation for over a year. Also while it's easy to say no one will overlook a tournament like the Open, remember that there is actually another massive event less than two weeks after the Open this year in Paris. It just throws a different wrinkle into this season.
Click to expand...

Bryson aka the people’s champ.
 
Secretly rooting for Rors to make up for the U.S. Open but tough field. Didn't expect him to win Scottish as last week was a warm up. Morikawa, Fleetwood, Finau, Rors all in great form but anything can happen leading up to Sunday, including Sunday to finish a tourney.

Was out for most of yesterday and finally saw the Scottish final round recording. Wow on Aberg, just wasn't there.

Starting to dig into Open and probably will have some top X futures. GL this week boys.
 
Newest member to the KJ DK roster is Max Greyserman. That sounds like a made up name. Does he stand a chance to make the cut this week? Does he even play golf?
 
It's early in the week but going to go top 20 big on Aberg at -135 and top 10 as well plus have unit to win
Also doing top 20 on Tom Kim, Shane Lowry.
Really liking Morikawa who has been hot and steady.

Looks like the weather starts changing on Thursday and having just been there it truly changes every 15 to 20 minutes.
As usual the draw and breaks with weather will be big but not looking like any clear weather pattern that would lend to changing picks.

Last week Tom Kim had a big final round so I ended up just slightly up for the week
 
Okay,

On my laptop now, so I'll go ahead and put out some thoughts...

I am pretty pumped for this week.

Why?

-Obvious good memories from that Harman +14,000 bet last year.
-Cam Davis win in Detroit at 6600 helped puff up the golf bankroll a bit.
-Feel like I found a groove last two weeks on totals and hopefully can build on that here and into the playoffs.
-More than anything though, I LOVE The Open Championship. The people, the history the weather, and the venues are always compelling.
-I think the group here at CTG is capping well right now and we'll have a GREAT week.

I'll need to watch the 2016 final round one of these next few nights. One, that will familiarize myself with this great course again and also just to relive one of the more incredible Sundays we've had this century at The Open.

Thinking back to 2016, take Phil and 3-wood away and this course played much tougher than their scores would make one think. There were only 17 guys under par with 3rd place finishing at -6. I do not remember the weather back then, and this is a better field this week, but that is something to keep in mine (and I'll look that up).


Some quick hot takes...

Dunno why, but my first inclination and gut feeling is Collin Morikawa.

I do have a Tiger +12.500 bet from last winter on the ledger.

Speaking of Tiger, this is the major that he probably has the best chance to threaten in. Slow greens and he can hit all the different shots needed.

I scrolled down to that +14000 range to see who could be Harman again, lol, and who do I see? Dustin Johnson.

Dustin has taken such a fall since LIV started. He doesn't care, and that is fine. With that being said, this is his last Open with the exemption. Could he have a week?

I think LIV guys fair a bit better here. This sets up better for several of them than the other courses this year.

As I mention LIV guys, I was already including Bryson and Hatton to be factors.

Hmmm.... Hatton could be right there this week.

Ludgod is so darn good. We simply need to see some Sunday finishes.

All money aside, if Rory won here this week I think that would be incredible just so we don't have to hear about it anymore.

Bobby Mac value is all but gone,

Lastly, there is A LOT of value after the +3000 and beyond. That is the case when we have a handful of betting favs like we do right now. Plenty of work to do and lets see what we can come up with!

Settling in for a few hours of "Live from..." here in a bit to hopefully find some good tidbits...
 
I still can't believe Ludvig played such a poor round on Sunday in Scottish. He was 9u on the Par 5's the first three rounds and 2 over on Sunday WTF. Even after a lackluster front 9 he was still right there with Scott and had ample opportunities.
 
First round over/unders are available at FD. See many floating around par.

Two futures so far:

Rors AND X top 20 finish (ties paid) +110 3u(FD)
Aberg top 20 (ties paid) -140 3u(DK) agree with @CHSGTMD , should continue to play well into this week.

GL this week fellas.
 
Front nine is definitely gettable for these guys with the short Par 4's, two Par 5's and favorable wind usually in first six holes. So far for me...

Fleetwood ML +2554 .5*
Tournament Matchup Fleetwood -114 vs. Hatton 1*
 
Sounds like the wind for the first 2 days at least will be out of the south, so the back 9 will play shorter than usual. Maybe we'll see some lower scores than usual (apart from Henrik and Phil in '14)
 
laopadak said:
First round over/unders are available at FD. See many floating around par.

Two futures so far:

Rors AND X top 20 finish (ties paid) +110 3u(FD)
Aberg top 20 (ties paid) -140 3u(DK) agree with @CHSGTMD , should continue to play well into this week.

GL this week fellas.
Click to expand...

Ties paid out in full?

You can parlay those finishes on DK and get +126 for Rors and X
 
laopadak said:
Yep, ties paid. Didn’t consider trying to parlay on DK, but haven’t been the greatest line shopper either.

Thx for enabling Spek, gonna probably look at another 2 I can parlay together, lol
Click to expand...

Is that new? I remember MGM being the only shop a couple of months back.
 
Inspekdah said:
Is that new? I remember MGM being the only shop a couple of months back.
Click to expand...
I’m finding books are adjusting their offerings based on the tourney present. For FD, it’s not the first time I’ve seen combo/parlay top positions but they’re generally presets at X odds.

For the Open I’m seeing ties paid at DK, FD and MGM
 
laopadak said:
Appreciate all these X feeds Reno, very insightful and probably would never come across them on my own.

Crush books and headaches boys
Click to expand...
For sure.

Trying to take bits and pieces of this and add to my notes to find something a bit extra.

I'll watch 'Live from..." After the ASG hoping for some other info. Last night's show was more of a buildup than great info.
 
For the record, I love watching golf. I've been a remote worker for most of my professional career and I've had the luxury of always having the early rounds on in the background as I ease into my mornings Thursday and Friday. It's therapeutic in a sense. I am not a good golfer, been to Bethpage Black for the PGA in 2018, and have been even more hooked since then as a fan. This thread excites me in ways I can't describe for the Open. You guys capture all of the things I want to hear and read. Really amped, and thank you for all the well-thought-out, in-depth insights.

That said, I too feel good about Morikawa, but think Rory finds his way here. Aberg top 20 seems like good value at -135 as well.
 
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