The Greek has Cincinnati O/U 6 wins. Please Hammer it.
- Thread starter Dmoney416
- Start date
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
I see nine losable games on teh schedule.
@ Oklahoma
Miami, OH
Rutgers
@UConn
S Fla
@ WVU
@ Ville
Pitt
@ Hawaii
Don't you think it's possible they lose 6 of those?
@ Oklahoma
Miami, OH
Rutgers
@UConn
S Fla
@ WVU
@ Ville
Pitt
@ Hawaii
Don't you think it's possible they lose 6 of those?
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
I think it's more likely the go 8-4 then 6-6...but I'm not sure about "hammer"..
Just curious from a Bearcat perspective what you think.
Just curious from a Bearcat perspective what you think.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
This may be seen a homerism, but no. Also, remember that they play 13 games, so they would have to go 5-8 to lose this bet. I also think it is more likely that they lose @Marshall than against Miami OH @home.
After their first 6 games, they should be either 4-2 or 5-1. I could see them pushing this, but I have a very hard time seeing them losing this barring injuries.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
EKU - win
@Oklahoma - loss
bye
Miami OH - very likely win. Kelly has an irrational hate for this team and doesn't believe that they should be in a home and home with them. He will torch them if he has the chance.
@Akron - Could be dangerous if Akron was boasting a respectable team, but they aren't. Win.
@Marshall - likely win, but a tricky Friday game.
Rutgers - They'll be a slight fav.
bye
@UConn - Toss up?
USF - toss up?
@WVU - I'll give this a loss for the sake of avoiding argument.
@Louisville - toss up/slight fav?
Pitt - Cincy will likely be a slight fav.
Syracuse - win
@Hawaii - ????????????????
They play 13 games, and have 4 of their 7 conference games at home.
I count three wins, two very likely wins, two losses, and basically a bunch of conference toss-ups (2-3 of which they will play at home).
They could win 2 games in conference and push this bet.
@Oklahoma - loss
bye
Miami OH - very likely win. Kelly has an irrational hate for this team and doesn't believe that they should be in a home and home with them. He will torch them if he has the chance.
@Akron - Could be dangerous if Akron was boasting a respectable team, but they aren't. Win.
@Marshall - likely win, but a tricky Friday game.
Rutgers - They'll be a slight fav.
bye
@UConn - Toss up?
USF - toss up?
@WVU - I'll give this a loss for the sake of avoiding argument.
@Louisville - toss up/slight fav?
Pitt - Cincy will likely be a slight fav.
Syracuse - win
@Hawaii - ????????????????
They play 13 games, and have 4 of their 7 conference games at home.
I count three wins, two very likely wins, two losses, and basically a bunch of conference toss-ups (2-3 of which they will play at home).
They could win 2 games in conference and push this bet.
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Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Obviously, the juice is getting high now, but I would be shocked (barring injuries, etc.) if this team won less than 6 games.
I think if they can win once in their tough stretch of:
@UConn
USF
@WVU
@Louisville
Win one of those, and a push is basically guaranteed. In reality, they could lose all four of these and get a push.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Should have read toss up/slight underdog. Home game, thursday night. What do you think the line is there. USF -3 or 4?
Not to mention that USF historically struggles in cold weather. (This one is on Oct. 30, which is basically unpredictable as far as weather in concerned, but it certainly could be cold).
I think it goes close to -6 or -6.5 for USF. They are going into the season with high hopes and I think more people know about Grothe and this USF team then they do anything about Cincy. Could very well be a good spot to grab Cincy, but USF might have therer best D in place in the last few years there
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
I didn't bet nearly as much as I wanted to bet. I only had a couple of units on there as I planned to bet a couple of week 1 games once the lines came out.
I noticed yesterday that they had Cincinnati listed, but no number was there. So, I checked this morning and it had 6 (-125) (This was around 10:50 EST). At that point, I tried to deposit more, but I got the run around and found out that Wachovia/Citi/Commerce (the banks on my cards) do not accept offshore gambling sites. I could have tried to use Western Union or MoneyGram, but that would have taken a couple of hours, and I figured that it would be too late.
By the time I looked at it again, it was at -145. At that point, I just emptied my account on it (admittedly, not very much). It went to -155 as I went to post it here, and then to -240.
So, I doubt that I moved the line.
I thought the fair line for this was 7 with moderate juice on the over or 7.5 with slight positive juice on the over.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Certainly possible, and obviously it is all conjecture since we are talking about a game that takes place in week 10.
Sitting here right now, I wouldn't expect Cincy to win, but I don't think USF is going to cruise to a 2 TD victory either.
I agree, and I think Cincy's home field advantage is very underrated. Would not surprise me one bit to see them win, was just trying to look at it through Vegas's eyes. If they set that at -3 or less, with no major injuries, I'd be willing to bet that 75% or more play USF
hahahaha wow people made quick work of that line i guess....
they cancelled every different bet u had on it??????? thats really really shady if they did
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
I didn't have much in The Greek, so I could only bet it once (basically close to the max bet of $500). I bet it at -145.
It's in my post where I quoted horses' post.
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
That's not right at all and doesn't sound liek something Greek normally would do..
Wow.
Wow.
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
Shit, I got an over 625.5 for Beanie prop last year at Bodog...it was a terrible line that they set, got called and reposted it 300 yds higher...that they honored the originally bets they had taken.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Exactly. It is basically a lazy, ill-researched line as opposed to a "mistake."
On Bookmaker last year, they opened the Minnesota/Indiana total at something like 51 before quickly changing it to something in the low 60s a couple of minutes later. They honored my bet on 51.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Tough to say. I guess I could see a couple of things:
6.5 with insane juice on the over (in the -220 to -280 range)
7 with moderate juice on the over (-130 to -160)
7.5 with slight positive juice on the over
8 with moderate to large juice on the over (probably the least likely and least correct of these possibilities)
I was under the assumption that it would open at 7 (like it did in Vegas) with moderate juice on the over or 7.5, so I'll go with that.
To be honest though, I'm not sure how the juice should be modified in order to accompany a total change of .5 wins.
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
I think prolly 7...hard to see them raising it from 6 to 7.5
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
that's a real possibility...but still should honor their mistake.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
That's why the have such low limits on these things...to cover any potential mistakes. Really surprised the greek pulled this one back...wonder if that is a sign of things to come.
FWIW...I agree with BAR; they didn't count 13 games and should have set the total at 7 with similar juice in the (-150) range.
FWIW...I agree with BAR; they didn't count 13 games and should have set the total at 7 with similar juice in the (-150) range.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Not realizing that there were 13 games is the most likely explanation. Still, that is simply laziness and bad research. Something they should pay for.
Also, they just gradually raised the juice until they finally figured out that something was going on. If it was really a mistake, they would have taken it off right as the action became one-sided instead of raising the juice.
Also, they just gradually raised the juice until they finally figured out that something was going on. If it was really a mistake, they would have taken it off right as the action became one-sided instead of raising the juice.
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Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
The Greek recently sent me an e-mail:
Your wager(s) on the above has been cancelled as the oddsmaker just realized that the total he put up was based on 12 games and Cinc unlike the rest of the teams plays 13. Sorry for any inconvenience.
Wally
</WMFILTERED>
So BAR and others were right. This isn't nearly enough for me though. Thinking about how to respond to this now.
Your wager(s) on the above has been cancelled as the oddsmaker just realized that the total he put up was based on 12 games and Cinc unlike the rest of the teams plays 13. Sorry for any inconvenience.
Wally
</WMFILTERED>
So BAR and others were right. This isn't nearly enough for me though. Thinking about how to respond to this now.
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Your wager(s) on the above has been cancelled as the oddsmaker just realized that the total he put up was based on 12 games and Cinc unlike the rest of the teams plays 13. Sorry for any inconvenience.
Wally
So what was he looking at that indicated 12 games? Clearly he didn't check at all and just put up a number. That is incompetence to a staggering degree. I have never heard of such a thing. Ask Wally if it will be alright if you wish to retract a wager when you find out after placing a bet that the QB is hurt and unlike other teams they won't have their starter.
Wally
So what was he looking at that indicated 12 games? Clearly he didn't check at all and just put up a number. That is incompetence to a staggering degree. I have never heard of such a thing. Ask Wally if it will be alright if you wish to retract a wager when you find out after placing a bet that the QB is hurt and unlike other teams they won't have their starter.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
That is a good one.
This is what I sent back, for what it's worth:
Isn't this the job of the linesmakers? It is their job to put out correct lines at competitive prices. This happens exceedingly often - are bettors simply supposed to overlook weak lines? This isn't a simple mistake - it is the result of laziness and poor research. Now bettors are being penalized for exploiting it?
There is a difference between a simple mistake and laziness. For example, if the week 1 lines come out and you open Florida International as a -38 favorite at Kansas (instead of the other way around), it is obviously an error that will quickly be corrected.
This, on the other hand, is the result of laziness and/or incomplete research. Should smart bettors just sit around and wait for it to adjust? This action is purely reactionary and takes the responsibility away from the linesmakers. It's that simple.
They returned with:
Dear Dave,
We apologized for any inconvenience;however, you will need to speak to the Manager in the morning.
You may call 1-800-641-6026.
Sorry for any inconvenience.
Best Regards,
Swayna
Customer Service Dept.
So, I'll be calling tomorrow morning to see if I can get the manager. :shake:
sirwinzalot
The wisdom of Towlie
Dmoney, nice to see you on the over, on it too. I have told my buddy Pags how good of a coach Brian Kelley is. That guy is such a great coach, now he has more talent to work with at Cincinnati. Granted tougher competition, but that guy is one of the best coaches in the entire D1 ranks. Like it!
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Just talked to the Manager "Wally" on the phone.
He basically repeated the same song and dance from his e-mails yesterday, and I told him the same thing.
He even had the gall to send me this e-mail:
You are right but we do not intentionally take advantage of oor players and we expect the same respect in return. Errors will be made and the majority of our customers will tell us we made a mistake instead of betting it.
Wally
He said the linesmaker is in New York, and they correspond given e-mails and IMs. He said he had no idea why he assumed that they played 12 games. He said it was an "obvious line error" because other places have a different number. I said that this goes way beyond a simple mistake into laziness, bad research, and incompetence and he is taking all responsibility away from the linesmakers.
He also said it was an obvious error because soon after it was posted, a person e-mailed him saying that it was incorrect (then why was it up for 2.5 fucking hours?). I said what would have happened if a user didn't notify him of the error - he said "I don't know, but it would have eventually been caught." What the hell does that mean?
He said that if it happens in the future, the same thing will happen.
Needless to say, I'm taking my business elsewhere and encouraging everyone I talk to do the same.
He basically repeated the same song and dance from his e-mails yesterday, and I told him the same thing.
He even had the gall to send me this e-mail:
You are right but we do not intentionally take advantage of oor players and we expect the same respect in return. Errors will be made and the majority of our customers will tell us we made a mistake instead of betting it.
Wally
He said the linesmaker is in New York, and they correspond given e-mails and IMs. He said he had no idea why he assumed that they played 12 games. He said it was an "obvious line error" because other places have a different number. I said that this goes way beyond a simple mistake into laziness, bad research, and incompetence and he is taking all responsibility away from the linesmakers.
He also said it was an obvious error because soon after it was posted, a person e-mailed him saying that it was incorrect (then why was it up for 2.5 fucking hours?). I said what would have happened if a user didn't notify him of the error - he said "I don't know, but it would have eventually been caught." What the hell does that mean?
He said that if it happens in the future, the same thing will happen.
Needless to say, I'm taking my business elsewhere and encouraging everyone I talk to do the same.
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