The effect of blowing a 20pt lead

[Blue_Chip]

I was expecting to get a couple of posts of feedback this morning, but when I awoke I turn on my comp to see a three-page thread. Then I start reading the thread and realized it is really only a one page thread because the second and third pages have become Jump and brew's NFL discussion. Ha!

Back to the topic at-hand, I think Jump nailed it in the first response -- Gm2 hova. I think it was Joe that I agree with -- if any team in the NBA can stay focused on the task at hand after blowing a 20pt lead, it is San An. So, I will not fade SA. Also, I believe Kobe will have more than 2pts in the 1H and 13 in the 2H in Gm2. I think Fisher will become a factor, and LA will control the pace moreso than SA (as was the case in Gm1).

So, I conclude that we will get a better performance out of LA's main guys, LA will dictate the tempo, and SA will keep pace so as to not get blown out. All of these things lead to a winning bet on the over.

 

[Satyr]

I think Blitz nailed it with the letdown for the Spurs in game 2, a mental breakdown I don't think is easy to overcome...

 

[GWarner27]

What also makes Game Two tough to bet is that neither the Lakers nor the Spurs have lost a home game to the other team all season long.

JP, how much does this really matter? It seems to me that everyone in the association cares little about the regular season so how would we even know if that is a part of it unless it's just a mental barrier...

 

[SportsNut]

I was expecting to get a couple of posts of feedback this morning, but when I awoke I turn on my comp to see a three-page thread. Then I start reading the thread and realized it is really only a one page thread because the second and third pages have become Jump and brew's NFL discussion. Ha!

Back to the topic at-hand, I think Jump nailed it in the first response -- Gm2 hova. I think it was Joe that I agree with -- if any team in the NBA can stay focused on the task at hand after blowing a 20pt lead, it is San An. So, I will not fade SA. Also, I believe Kobe will have more than 2pts in the 1H and 13 in the 2H in Gm2. I think Fisher will become a factor, and LA will control the pace moreso than SA (as was the case in Gm1).

So, I conclude that we will get a better performance out of LA's main guys, LA will dictate the tempo, and SA will keep pace so as to not get blown out. All of these things lead to a winning bet on the over.

I think its hard to say they blew a 20 pt lead because it was a 7 pt margin or 8 pt margin @ half and Spurs started ice cold and LAL for the 1st 5 ish minutes played well suddenly that 8 pt game turned to 20 but as soon as it did the Lakers rally begin and with in 1 or 2 possessions of it reaching 20. So in a sense it probably felt more at best like a mid teens lead at its peek and more like a 10 pt game most of the way( at best). I really dont think it was ever a comfortable lead. I would guess very little time outside of 6 minute span in the 3rd quarter actually held a SAS DD lead. SAS had a nice run midway 2nd quarter to midway 3rd quarter where LAL did the same over the last 8 or 9 minutes of the game...

I dont think it has that big of an effect. I think Pho losing how it did vs SAS in series 1 , game 1 was devasting and really signaled the end of the series for PHO because if PHO could play that well and not win how could they do better next time out?? SA really didnt play that well . They played good ball but I dont think it was an excellent game especially because it didnt even last 48 minutes . Also SAS went from close game to wide margin of defeat more then a few times on the road just look at the NO games. They led at times by intermission and lost by 20 so whats the difference really ? The fact the lead was big and they lost ? The swing is still the same . I understand losing such a game is more hurtful but not sure a vet team like SAS gets down because of it. If fatigue was an issue with an older roster I would guess for it to show in the 4th quarter after closing out NO on monday. So another 4th q struggle could be in the cards here For SA....which I think I may play LAL 4th quarter minus the number....gonna be interesting if fatigue is a factor it would show in the 2nd Half here but I think I prefer SA in teh 2nd H especially 3rd quarter because LAL should have laot of momentum to start off that SA will need to figure out how to flip....:cheers:

 

[Satyr]

SN do you think the 2nd game off all the commotion (thrilling game 7 in New Orleans, hard trip, short rest, etc) has more effect on the Spurs fatigue wise?

I'm thinking it may have.

 

[SportsNut]

SN do you think the 2nd game off all the commotion (thrilling game 7 in New Orleans, hard trip, short rest, etc) has more effect on the Spurs fatigue wise?

I'm thinking it may have.

I think and I am not certain about this I have heard some people say that SA looked fatigued vs NO in game 7 on Monday. They were outscored 26-20 . So if that is true then I do think fatigue played a large role in the collapse late because LAL had so much rest and was a team who had played well when rested. I believe they were 7-2 SU and ATS when on 3 or more days rest but I would guess few games had more then 3 maybe 4 days rest . So in that sense what happened was supposed to happen . If they were tired and drained on Monday , had the travel hiccup probably making the situation worse and play a fresh and rested team . One would guess the 4th quarter of ant sort of competitive game would be an issue for them. The big 3 played 39,42 and 44 minutes on Monday .

Basically my point is I believe the fatigue arguement for Game 1 @ LAL IF its true SA looked tired in quarter #4 on Monday in New Orleans. Bad spot for them if so and they did well in using the momentum of Game 7 coupled with the slight rust of a five days off to take control for30 minutes...:shake:

 

[Joe Public]

JP, how much does this really matter? It seems to me that everyone in the association cares little about the regular season so how would we even know if that is a part of it unless it's just a mental barrier...

I just think it matters from the standpoint of streaks were made to be broken.

I can't say it's going to get SA the victory tomorrow night, though.

Frankly, they should have won last night so if they come out and lose by eight or whatever tomorrow they really did do enough to earn the split, but they won't have gotten it. And I think a lot of us, before the series started, really felt good about SA splitting the first two.

 

[SportsNut]

And since I miss understood your question at first cause your asking for this game ....I am not sure how to play it . What I do think will happen is LAL comes out strong for Q 1 and probably leads at half with SA making a 3rd quarter rally which is stopped in the 4th quarter..

So my leans are more Lakers 1st H , SA 3rd Q and LAL 4th quarter ...with the possibility that if its 11 ,12 points that I play SA in the 2nd H if its something around SA -1.

 

[SportsNut]

Why I think this is its rough to play 3 big road games in 5 days especially when you are over dependednt on 3 players who have carried you all year . SA is known to have issues playing B2B games just for the reason IMO and while its not B2B its certainly a tough task IMO....

 

[SportsNut]

Possible to further the issue of SA being fatigued is that they scored less each quarter 27 -24-21-13

 

[Throwback420]

 

[Satyr]

I hope the day will come when Throw will fade the Lakers

game 3 maybe? :smiley_acbe:

 

[Throwback420]

from a 20 pt lead in a game to a 30 pt blowout wow !!

 

[kutafon]

I hope the day will come when Throw will fade the Lakers

game 3 maybe? :smiley_acbe:

what are you smoking

game 3 ml for him and spread, throw in first half as well

 

[Throwback420]

what are you smoking

game 3 ml for him and spread, throw in first half as well

maybe even 1st q opcorn:

 

[SportsNut]

like Spurs 1st quarter...Waltons 3 was lil to much IMO to ice it...