The 2021 Masters Discussion Thread

Couple of quick thoughts...


Rahm just had a kid... maybe he is calm and relaxed or he is dead tired... He's getting close on a major...maybe this helps the maturity level at some point...

Yes, I get the Spieth hype and hope he is in contention but no value right now...obviously evaluate as the week goes...definitely be a helluva storyline...

Rory is broken for now...

DJ coming in very quiet... tough to b2b here... feel he starts slow and presents value at some point...

Bryson, who knows? It will be a wild ride though...

Reed is that sneaky pick that no one wants to see around....
 
B.A.R. said:
BAR Outrights(so far)


Justin Thomas +1200
Collin Morikawa +4000
Scottie Sheffler +5500
Patrick Reed +3500



Shopping on Cantlay right now...

Those are weighted out somewhat...
Click to expand...
No Blake? Now that's a story!
 
KJ said:
Butch said this weekend that every surgeon he's talked to says he's taking years off his career for this

Hell he might be in a wheelchair at 40
Click to expand...

I thought that by doing the "Golfing Machine" swing, he could swing that hard without putting himself at unnecessary injury risk? Or is that just what Bryson says? I've never read that book before, because Lord knows I don't need any more swing thoughts
 
As is my usual, I will make too many bets for this tournament. Here's what I have so far:

Spieth -115 vs Rory
Cam Smith +110 vs Berger
Leishman +115 vs Palmer


Top 5:
Cantlay +350

Top 10:
Brooks +225
Sergio +350
Oosthuizen +400
Leishman +700

Top 20:
Sergio +150
Oosthuizen +150
Billy Ho +200
Leishman +275
Kisner +400
 
twinkie13 said:
Spieth vs Rory have a limit? That’s cheap huh?
Click to expand...
I went bigger than my normal bet on it, but nothing crazy. Rory's MO at Augusta has been to have a middling first round and then back door a top 10 by playing well on the weekend, so I could see this one being close
 
Added a few more matchups and I think I'm done.

Sergio -105 vs Day
Kuchar -115 over Rose
Horschel EV vs Ancer
Rahm -130 vs Bryson
JT -125 vs Bryson
 
Have seen numerous quotes talking about how firm it is this year. Wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever if they set the course up to be really tough after DJ emasculated it last year in benign conditions. Definitely think the guys who played it for the first time ever in November are going to have a steep learning curve when they really turn up the speed between Wed afternoon and Thursday morning. Maybe fade some of those guys in their 1st round matchups? Trying to find a list of the first timers from November, think there were 26 of them. Not sure how many are in the field this week.
 
B.A.R. said:
BAR Outrights(so far)


Justin Thomas +1200
Collin Morikawa +4000
Scottie Sheffler +5500
Patrick Reed +3500



Shopping on Cantlay right now...

Those are weighted out somewhat...
Click to expand...
Added

Cantlay +2000
Blake +2500


That's my 6 pack till live betting.
 
gps_3 said:
Have seen numerous quotes talking about how firm it is this year. Wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever if they set the course up to be really tough after DJ emasculated it last year in benign conditions. Definitely think the guys who played it for the first time ever in November are going to have a steep learning curve when they really turn up the speed between Wed afternoon and Thursday morning. Maybe fade some of those guys in their 1st round matchups? Trying to find a list of the first timers from November, think there were 26 of them. Not sure how many are in the field this week.
Click to expand...
Good stuff.

I'll try and help on this later.
 
Found it. Player's who's only Masters appearance was in November, excluding amateurs:

Ancer
Champ
Duncan (x)
Griffin
Homa
Im
Jazz (x)
Kang (x)
Kokrak
Lashley (x)
Munoz
Pan
Perez
Poston (x)
Putnam (x)
Taylor (x)
van Rooyen (x)
Wolff

Placed an (x) by those not in the field this week. Could be something, could be nothing. But Ancer, Im, and Pan off the top of my head played well in November, so maybe some value in fading them?
 
gps_3 said:
Have seen numerous quotes talking about how firm it is this year. Wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever if they set the course up to be really tough after DJ emasculated it last year in benign conditions. Definitely think the guys who played it for the first time ever in November are going to have a steep learning curve when they really turn up the speed between Wed afternoon and Thursday morning. Maybe fade some of those guys in their 1st round matchups? Trying to find a list of the first timers from November, think there were 26 of them. Not sure how many are in the field this week.
Click to expand...
Seeing some at least legitimate chances of rain all four days, something to keep an eye on day to day if not hour to hour for live betting/round betting
 
KJ said:
Seeing some at least legitimate chances of rain all four days, something to keep an eye on day to day if not hour to hour for live betting/round betting
Click to expand...
Something to definitely keep an eye on, especially if there is wind with the rain. As long as it isn't a downpour, i think the firmness will remain. If you've ever been there, the ground feels like rock under that perfectly manicured grass
 
gps_3 said:
I went bigger than my normal bet on it, but nothing crazy. Rory's MO at Augusta has been to have a middling first round and then back door a top 10 by playing well on the weekend, so I could see this one being close
Click to expand...
I like that onw
 
Brooks 25/1
Casey 40/1
Berger 40/1
Im 40/1

I will also be looking to add two or three out of Bryson, JT, Cantlay, Morikawa, Finau, and Smith to my card during play on Thursday. Since they all have late tee times, I'm hoping to maybe catch slightly better numbers if someone like DJ, Rahm, or Rory has a really hot AM round.

:cheers3:
 
gps_3 said:
Something to definitely keep an eye on, especially if there is wind with the rain. As long as it isn't a downpour, i think the firmness will remain. If you've ever been there, the ground feels like rock under that perfectly manicured grass
Click to expand...
Never been but I more or less was thinking about green speed/scoring. The putting will inevitably be slower if they're wet too
 
KJ said:
Never been but I more or less was thinking about green speed/scoring. The putting will inevitably be slower if they're wet too
Click to expand...
They can always turn on the sub-air to keep the greens from being too slow, though it won't let them make them lightning speed if it rains enough. With the slopes on the greens, they can have the speed slow by PGA standards but put the pins in places that still make it pretty fast, if that makes sense. Regardless, I trust ANGC to make the conditions like they want them, unlike some of the other governing bodies
 
gps_3 said:
Have seen numerous quotes talking about how firm it is this year. Wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever if they set the course up to be really tough after DJ emasculated it last year in benign conditions. Definitely think the guys who played it for the first time ever in November are going to have a steep learning curve when they really turn up the speed between Wed afternoon and Thursday morning. Maybe fade some of those guys in their 1st round matchups? Trying to find a list of the first timers from November, think there were 26 of them. Not sure how many are in the field this week.
Click to expand...
Been looking for that as well, had a similar thought when I saw it discussed on tv the other day
 
I do like tee time for blake, not too early, knee wont be stiff

I dont think he can be bet till we see him react after some swings though

I dont see anyway he withdraws though, just think hed rather miss 2 more months and hurt it more than take a WD
 
I like the Rahm baby thing tbh, I think hes probably getting the best sleeps hes had in awhile Wednesday and Thursday, danny Willett in 2016 was a similar situation

Blake i just wrote tough to bet till swings are seen, I think that's more for matchups where I'd avoid him still at least first few days, but his odds to win are either halved if he looks good or tripled if he looks bad, so see value

Connors has been top 15 last 3 or 4 starts, and if his putting is as good as it has been in those events, hes got a real good chance with his approach play

Rahm +1200
Casey +3500
Koepka +2500
Connors +8000
Berger +3500
Fitzpatrick +4000

Probably play all of them but rahm and Koepka for top 10 finishes too
 
twinkie13 said:
How many are past champs? Meaning wouldn’t have been invited? 5 or am I way off?
Click to expand...
I counted 18 former champs in the field. Of those, the ones that wouldn't be in on their current merits (ranked top 50 or winner since last April): Woosnam, Mize, Couples, Singh, Mickelson, Schwartzel, Zach Johnson, Lyle, Bubba, Langer, Willett, and Weir. So 12 of 18 wouldn't be here without past winner status
 
I was just listening to “Gravy & The Sleaze” on PGA radio. They had interesting guest that said Bryson is not a good bet bc he relies very heavily on the Greens Book in reading putts & Augusta does not have Greens Books. Plus, over last few years (cannot remember how many) he has ranked poorly in putting @ Augusta.

Finally, Colt made mention of the fact that Augusta has little rough & they have cut it to have ball carry to the pine straw on bad shots. Colt noted that at Winged Foot Bryson had advantage bc he is so much stronger than other players & hits it further. So, he could muscle ball easily from rough. No advantage for him on this course.
 
Bubba would have qualified being ranked 44th in the world at the end of 2020 and Zach would have because of the last 5 British Open winners rule although this would be his last year for it. Nothing for Phil.
 
bones said:
I was just listening to “Gravy & The Sleaze” on PGA radio. They had interesting guest that said Bryson is not a good bet bc he relies very heavily on the Greens Book in reading putts & Augusta does not have Greens Books. Plus, over last few years (cannot remember how many) he has ranked poorly in putting @ Augusta.

Finally, Colt made mention of the fact that Augusta has little rough & they have cut it to have ball carry to the pine straw on bad shots. Colt noted that at Winged Foot Bryson had advantage bc he is so much stronger than other players & hits it further. So, he could muscle ball easily from rough. No advantage for him on this course.
Click to expand...
I think both points are accurate. Bryson is somewhere way down in SG: Putting at the Masters, while he's pretty high up on every other SG metric. But he's a really good golfer, and I'm sure he'll eventually figure it out, in the goofiest and most annoying way possible. The light rough thing just goes to show that growing the rough way up is not the way to combat distance. It actually gives them a bigger advantage. Bryson will be hitting PW out of that stuff while Brian Harman will have 6 iron. Who has a better chance of getting to stop on the green?
 
KJ said:
Bubba would have qualified being ranked 44th in the world at the end of 2020 and Zach would have because of the last 5 British Open winners rule although this would be his last year for it. Nothing for Phil.
Click to expand...
I forgot about being top 50 at the end of the season being a qualification. There's also auto bids for everyone who makes it to East Lake in the Fed-Ex Cup playoffs
 
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