Tennis - Week 46 Discussion Thread

​Parlay .5u to win 10.786 Murray, Federer, Shvedova -1.5, Doi -1.5, Wang -150, Rodina, Voegele, Herbert/Mahut, Dodig/Melo
 
Parlay 1u to win 2.1u Murray, Kukhum, C Liu, M Doi, Rodina, Shvedova
.5u Murray -190
Parlay .5u to win 10.786 Murray, Federer, Shvedova -1.5, Doi -1.5, Wang -150, Rodina, Voegele, Herbert/Mahut, Dodig/Melo
 
Doubles
1u Dodig/Melo -125

played this last night late and forgot to post. line is at -140 now
 
haha man im ice cold right now with the ATP, the dogs I have played have fallen flat, the favs I have played have fallen flat
 
I was considering some set structures with Ferrer, he leads the series 6-4. 3-1 Stan since 2013 but man he looked like trash the other day
 
ive learned my lesson with the best players catching money (Nadal, Fed) they may be on the way out but they are still some of the best in the world. No reason Fed should be +260 even to Djokavic, same thing Nadal shouldn't be +175 to that cunt murray
 
Ya stan just basically went thru the motions vs nadal i think a better showin n the match is on his racquet he should have more easy points on serve n have break opportunities... Hopin i have live so i can watch first few games see where Stans heads at
 
And its tough to gauge guys motivation at the pt .. U would think there motivated yr end tourny bla bla... But it looks like player that loses set 1 pretty much goes through motions in 2nd... Murray should not lose 6-1 to nadal n joker shouldnt. Lose 6-2 to anyone
 
yea that is a great point. only match where we saw some fight after a first set loss was Berdshit and Nishikori. Berdy actually fought back to just screw up in the third
 
my only problem is i think Ferrer is actually playing better tennis but as you said the match should be on Stan. if you look at their history over the last 10 matches, not h2h but just matches played Ferrer has only lost to Murray 6-4 6-4. Obviously Stan bouncing him last time out and having better h2h over the last 2 years is the main draw to Stan
 
1.5u more on Dodig/Melo -140 anything can happen in doubles but these guys are playing great right now and lock up their group play with a win here.
 
ksimpsc said:
my only problem is i think Ferrer is actually playing better tennis but as you said the match should be on Stan. if you look at their history over the last 10 matches, not h2h but just matches played Ferrer has only lost to Murray 6-4 6-4. Obviously Stan bouncing him last time out and having better h2h over the last 2 years is the main draw to Stan
Click to expand...
Murray bounced Ferrer from Paris masters 6-4 6-3 so only 2 losses to Murray and even a win over Nadal at Paris Masters
 
this could very well be the murray money that got burned trying to go in on Wawrinka as well lol
 
Parlay .5u to win 3.91 Federer, Doi -1.5, Wang, Flipkens, Rodina, Voegele, Dodig/Melo

thought I posted this, played this parlay after murray jenked the other. feel good about it and that one already had 2 winners on the losing one but that is cool
 
ATP
.5u Murray -190

Doubles
2.5u Dodig/Melo -125


Parlay .5u to win 3.91 Federer, Doi -1.5, Wang, Flipkens, Rodina, Voegele, Dodig/Melo
Parlay .5u to win 10.786 Murray, Federer, Shvedova -1.5, Doi -1.5, Wang -150, Rodina, Voegele, Herbert/Mahut, Dodig/Melo
Parlay 1u to win 2.1u Murray, Kukhum, C Liu, M Doi, Rodina, Shvedova

1-4 -1.9
 
Wawrinka line still going up, but Ferrer +1.5 is going down?

Feel like I should bet Ferrer here just because of how the day has gone, steam has been getting blasted. Still feel like Ferrer has a shot
 
on the phone but took a small bet on set structure

Wawa 2-1 +270
Ferrer 2-0 +310
Ferrer 2-1 +400

but very small almost insignificant hah
 
Stanimal!

down 2-5 and 30-40 (with Ferrer serving) in the first set and comes back to win the set 7-5.
 
yea glad i only played beer money on it, that is pretty wild. Stan going to have to stop dropping early breaks to get out of the semi's
 
He was playin awful early on all points from ferrer came from stans racquet once he found his range ferrer had no shot
 
ATP
Federer -520 1.5u
Federer -1.5
Federer/Nishikori U21.5
Djokavic -1.5 1u

Doubles
Bopanna/Mergea -200 5u

parlay .5u to win 6.76 Djokavic -1.5, Federer -1.5, Doi -1.5, Rodina -1.5, Shvedova -1.5, Voegele -1.5, Bopanna/Mergea

parlay 1u to win 2u Djokavic -1.5 Federrer -1.5, Bopanna/Mergea
 
hmm i was thinkin kei in this one + handicap or Over i wonder how fed plays knowing hes in semis.... does he come out and try to put it to em or fuck around and do SABR and do other stuff tough to know what he will do since hes in.... kei has a chance for semis he does need joker to go down not likely but its not like kei isnt playing for nething he has given fed problems in past...... think fed a lil over inflated in this one since he beat almighty joker.... im not ready to lay my $ on kei ml but do think he will keep it somewhat close.... nothin crazy on em cuz he could lose 1st and pack it in fatigue/injuries issues are always a concern....

FRIDAY im starting to like stan..... i wonder murray mental state lost to nadal look lifeless in 2nd set could be same thing competitive in 1st n pack it in and get ready for davis cup stan looked real good today .... even when he was down it wasnt ferrer beating him it was stan beating himself... once he found his range it was good night..... murray can hang better then ferrer from the baseline but he can fall back to his brick wall days and get pushed around like he did today vs nadal......
 
Yea I just think Fed is going to crush him and move on.

Great point about murray, he is a head case. Very likely he gets inside his own head and starts cussing like he did the other day and then its usually over for him. A couple times I have seen him come back and crush but lately he has seemed in poor form. The poor showing against Djokavic in Paris followed by this showing the other day where he gave up in the second
 
Lol Bopanna and Mergea lose 6-4 in the first spank them 6-1 in the second and lose in the third tiebreak
 
took some nishikori live just so it doesnt bone me if he does play out. well done by him to not lay down at 4-1
 
wow money coming on on the Bryan Brothers. they went from -215 to -320. Money has been getting shit housed this tourney
 
glad i did not bet the J Murray/Peers side though they nearly won, no reason they should have been +255
 
What happened KJ? I was just following the score on my way home. They looked like they were battling the whole time. I saw them up in the tiebreak
 
They were up 9-6 in the tiebreak and a couple crazy lobs that landed in coupled with a completely missed winner due to nerves
 
Damn that is wild, sounds like it would have been a bad beat. I almost took the +255 when it went up just because that is absurd bryans being -320 with how they have played lately. I was in the car kind of kicking myself thinking they won haha
 
kjohnson109 said:
If you had bet it and watched it, you'd feel like someone robbed you
Click to expand...
:rofl: well at least I know that I was leaning the right way. Damn sounds rough for Murray/Peers. LOL my leans would lose in the thirs set tiebreak. Same as stupid Bopanna/Mergea earlier.
 
WOW NBA that is wild. I had to run so missed the end of the set once the regged out but figured Djoker would close.
 
Sounds about right KJ, going to be a interesting set up to the Semi's. This Wawa/Murray match is big time. Winner moves on to face Federer in the other Semi.
 
How crazy is it that Fed and Rafa won their groups? Would be great to see them play a final time for the title but can't really see Joker losing to Rafa...think Stan wins tomorrow but don't think he takes down Fed
 
Yea KJ it is wild and brings back memories haha. Like you said though going to be tough for Rafa to take down Djoker but we saw against Fed it is possible. Let me put it like this, only guy other than Fed left in the draw that can beat Djoker is Nadal, even if his chances are slim.

I hope Wawa does win and I am going to let that line keep growing and likely place it on him. It is crazy almost every line with the favorites have been getting slammed and a lot of the steam is losing. Bryan's went from -215 opener to a -350 closer and went to two tie breaks lol. Line opened a little lower than I thought though so no surprise to see it grow.
 
wow

2-6 today -6u taking me to 16-27 over the last month -24.567 nearly pissing away all of my season profits lol. Oh well hopefully still come to finish out strong. Sadly 85% of those losses came on the backs of three big bets that feel flat in my face and the rest of that has been grind. That is what I get for going outside the system even on a play I love.



I will grind it out for the rest of the season and try to get my eye back, any luck I finish up despite some heavy losses for a few weeks.

just for note I am +2.63 still on the season now. I am just going to keep the record as a running tally and post final after this ATP finals.
 
2u Nadal -420
3u Dodig/Melo -325
.5u Rojer/Tecau -105

will likely be on Wawrinka come tomorrow, waiting for some of the other props to come out
 
Like stanimal.... First match tough to predict.. Dead match nadal already adv vs joker n ferrer out.. Tough to know how this one goes... Ferrer the kind of player that never quits so be interesting if he tries to go all out vs rafa maybe tough first n pack it in. In 2nd.. Ill watch n do live see how it goes... Worked yesterday with birdshit.. Like stan think murray has one eye on davis cup but u never know with Candy
 
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