Tennis - Week 43 Discussion Thread

[P-Unit]

Kevin Anderson -240 1u
Lucic-Baroni -120 .5u

 

[Noles4life]

like lucic baroni myself.......

 

[ksimpsc]

ATP
Cilic -355 2u
Donskoy +1.5 1u
Donskoy +161 .5u
Bautista-Agut -600 3u
Bautista-Agut -1.5 1.5u
Monfils -275 2u
Karlovic -205 2u
Anderson -250 1u

WTA
Siegemund -116 1u
Lucic-Baroni -130 2u
Janovic -1.5 1.5u
Jankovic -570 3u
Kuznetsova -200 2u
Pavlyuchenkova -255 2u

 

[Noles4life]

like pavy as welll

 

[ksimpsc]

Cilic, Bautista-Agut, Lucic-Baroni, Jankovic, Pavlyuchenkova 2u to win 6.58
Jankovic, Pavlyuchenkova, Bautista-Agut, Cilic 2 to win 3

 

[Noles4life]

Any insight on ferrer or monfils?

 

[ksimpsc]

i took monfils though he has not been in his best form lately. He has decent history here and will keep fighting even if/when he drops a set

 

[P-Unit]

ATP
Cilic -355 2u
Donskoy +1.5 1u
Donskoy +161 .5u
Bautista-Agut -600 3u
Bautista-Agut -1.5 1.5u
Monfils -275 2u
Karlovic -205 2u
Anderson -250 1u

WTA
Siegemund -116 1u
Lucic-Baroni -130 2u
Janovic -1.5 1.5u
Jankovic -570 3u
Kuznetsova -200 2u
Pavlyuchenkova -255 2u

I am by not means an expert - just look at how I do in NCAA football (or NFL this season lol), but a word of advice on laying the number on Bautista-Agut. He won, but this is basically how you lose your bankroll betting tennis. your payoff (3U win or 18U loss) is far to assymetric. 1 loss on those wipes out a lot of profit. This comes from my own experience and I'm sure others will tell you the same. I learned the hard way on a few.

Betting tennis, like many other sports, is about betting VALUE, not just who you think will win.

 

[P-Unit]

to add, if you are going to lay -600, do it in parlays only so that you limit your downside.

 

[ksimpsc]

well it was 3u to win .5u not 18u to win 3u but I hear ya. thanks

 

[P-Unit]

well it was 3u to win .5u not 18u to win 3u but I hear ya. thanks

ah, gotcha. I usually post my units as what I want to win, so I was thinking you were risking 18 to win 3. That's a far different conversation.

 

[Noles4life]

I like ferrer hes 8-0 vs fog n still trying tomake London. -375 is steep n i dont like -4.5

 

[Noles4life]

What too do

 

[ksimpsc]

ah, gotcha. I usually post my units as what I want to win, so I was thinking you were risking 18 to win 3. That's a far different conversation.

oh i got you. I typically am posting the units on the match guess I could post the win amount aside that as well. but still a good point as to playing a -600 in any capacity. 3 or 4 weeks ago I was going like 45-30 and still losing money due to a few big favs losing so I definitely hear you on that

 

[Noles4life]

Not that it matters to anyone but you but i thought u were risking X to win those units i was like damn must have 20-30k in a account to recover from a loss like that

 

[ksimpsc]

oh yea i am posting it like i do CFB, x units on that particular play at that particular juice. sorry if that was screwing anyone. So like pavly i have 2u at -255 to win under a unit

 

[ksimpsc]

i will edit that in the future so I am not confusing anyone

 

[ksimpsc]

Donskoy bought down fro +180 to +140, feel good about that

 

[ksimpsc]

Noles money coming in on Ferrer since last night

 

[Noles4life]

Donesky n bags i feel are good value plays

 

[ksimpsc]

yea I got 1.5u on that play total for Donskoy thought about upping it some

 

[Noles4life]

Ferrer has allll the motivation to preform. But fogs so tough to predict got the talent but is 0-8 n can fold real quick.. May lay the juice n play em

 

[ksimpsc]

yea I dont like betting against Fognini

 

[ksimpsc]

Bags is one I can never tell. I am always on his wrong side so I usually just lay off with him haha

 

[Noles4life]

Mueller has a shiitty indoor record n normally folds around this stage ... Bags has a good record indoors won this title before n beat mueller this summer already.. Surface isn't conducive for mueller game here n bags should have some confidence....

 

[ksimpsc]

yea bags played well in the last round. a lot better than I thought he would and I do like him as a dog on this surface

 

[ksimpsc]

pavly won so got parlay with Jankovic and Cilic to close out. that would be nice

 

[ksimpsc]

Lucic Baroni let us all down, man i thought that was a good match up

 

[Noles4life]

She was just slappin balls all over place no game plan

 

[GatorsLeafsBills]

I actually went and played Pavly at 6am this morning lol. Lost a cricket bet and was mad. Score was crazy

Was 2-2 in the first set, then Kastakina went on to win the next 6 games to take a 6-2 2-0 lead.
Then Pavly took the next 8 games to take a 2-6 6-2 2-0 lead.

Ended up winning 2-6 6-2 6-4

 

[ksimpsc]

so the real question is did you sleep and wake up and play her or were you still awake?

 

[GatorsLeafsBills]

so the real question is did you sleep and wake up and play her or were you still awake?

I was still awake :rofl: Fell asleep about 5am local time and just woke up

 

[ksimpsc]

damn van uty was one i laid off but was considering. should have done more on Donskoy he is demolishing

 

[Noles4life]

Donsky lookin strong

 

[Noles4life]

Wanted to take birdshit but just didnt like how he looked yesterday

 

[ksimpsc]

yea i was real hesitant to bet on berdych

 

[Noles4life]

Thinkin of takin over in bags mueller

 

[P-Unit]

ksimpsc - good play on Donsky. I played at +140 as well but forgot to post. Got Muller going now at -150.

 

[P-Unit]

Had Berdych -190 and -2.5 games as well. story of the day - lose the posted plays and win unposted plays lol.

 

[ksimpsc]

ksimpsc - good play on Donsky. I played at +140 as well but forgot to post. Got Muller going now at -150.

thanks yea saw the line moves this morning and wanted to add to Donskoy but stayed where I was. Muller was prob the side I just cant figure Bagdad sometimes so laid off

 

[ksimpsc]

need my girl jankovic and cilic to close my parlay, pretty muc have the rest of my day riding on those two

 

[Noles4life]

Had Berdych -190 and -2.5 games as well. story of the day - lose the posted plays and win unposted plays lol.

Nice i pussed out if i woulda saw ur post woulda been the push i needed.. Glad I backed off bags but had a feelin only one of the two underdogs between donesky n bags would win

 

[ksimpsc]

Jankovic was up a break in the first and gave it back on serve 4-5 damn

 

[ksimpsc]

wow jankovic gonna get beat in straight by doi

 

[Noles4life]

Mueller down 4-2 in 2nd wins 4 straight to take set

 

[ksimpsc]

jankovic up a break early gives it back loses in a tiebreak then loses her first serve out of tie break. now 4 straight breaks on serve 5-5 this is crazy

 

[ksimpsc]

Jank gave the next one up and Doi holds, Jank lose in straight wow

 

[P-Unit]

Muller you chump. Another posted play loss. What a day...

 

[ksimpsc]

its gators fault :enraged: missing the fourth pillar of success

 

[ksimpsc]

jk glb we just suck

ATP
2u Cilic -355
1u Donskoy +1.5
.5u Donskoy +161
Bautista-Agut -600 3u
Bautista-Agut -1.5 1.5u
Monfils -275 2u
Karlovic -205 2u
Anderson -250 1u

WTA
Siegemund -116 1u
Lucic-Baroni -130 2u
Jankovic -1.5 1.5u
Jankovic -570 3u
Kuznetsova -200 2u
Pavlyuchenkova -255 2u

Cilic, Bautista-Agut, Lucic-Baroni, Jankovic, Pavlyuchenkova 2u to win 6.58
Jankovic, Pavlyuchenkova, Bautista-Agut, Cilic 2 to win 3