Tell Seabass Why He'll Lose


Pretty much a regular
Again, I like to see the negative opinions about my picks before the games actually start, so that I'm not caught off guard about anything-a little bit easier this way to reconcile where you went wrong.

Last week I lost a little more than 2 units (my standard bet amount), going 6-7 (I middled the Clemson game though, so more like 5-6). Week sure felt a lot worse than that, though.

This week I really don't have much on the card that I like, but I like the plays that I've gone with a lot. Everything is 2 units again.

Georgia Tech -5 over Miami (-105)
I know that Miami gets some of their secondary back, but the game isn't at Miami (unless I'm totally spazzing out), and GT is coming off a thrashing, so they have everything to play for. I just think you are getting a much better team, at home, in a good position. Line has risen a little bit since I got it, but I'm not looking to middle this one...

Tennessee -3 over South Carolina (-124)
I'm not crazy about the juice, but I do love Tennessee only giving 3. Got this one very early...I believe the line is several points higher at this time. This one comes pretty simply-Tennessee is the better team, and has more to play for. While South Carolina is at home and Spurrier has owned Fulmer, the talent differential is simply too much to ignore. Erik Ainge struggled a little last week, and I think he comes out with something to prove here. Not sure I like the bet as much at -5 or whatever it is at now...

Buffalo +37 over Boston College (+103)
I feel fortunate to have gotten this line when I did...I know a lot of people are kicking themselves for not biting on it quickly. BC simply doesn't blow teams out. Tom O'Brien doesn't really believe in running up the score, and will just run vanilla runs once he gets up by a few TDs. In addition, Buffalo isn't as bad as in years past...and Matt Ryan is still a little bit dinged up-might be a good position to get the backup some work. BC can win by 5 TDs, doesn't matter to me...just not 37!

Northwestern +35 over Michigan (-105)
B.A.R and several other people have this one. Michigan isn't a real big run up the score team, but obviously there is always the risk that Northwestern could flat out hand it to them. Northwestern sucks, but in the few games that I've seen them, I've never felt like they quit. If NW hasn't quit, they will put up enough of a fight to stay within the spread here.

Let me know what you like/don't like...I'll be reading all of your threads and possibly adding plays as we go...
agree with all but why you COULD lose...

its miami and its reggie ball and cahn gailey hahaha

tennessee b/c its the SEC and they are away and its the ole ball coach.....

all in all
We got a pretty similar card. I honestly wanna write off Miami, but honestly if they beat tech here they are in the drivers seat to go to the ACC Championship. Is Ga Tech that much better? Thats debatable in my book, they blew out Va Tech, their other wins have come over samford, maryland, virginia and troy.Not really powerhouses. The U has better athletes, they also have the guys to contain CJ and put pressure on that nutcase ball.. If anything i think this is a field goal game.
5 winners on this card would be something I've never pulled off before, haha.

I hear you on the going against a home team in the SEC thing.

As for GT, I'm not willing to discount winning by 11 at Blacksburg. We all think very highly of Clemson, but I don't think anyone is in any hurry to lay 5 with Clemson in Blacksburg, despite having the information we have now. VT was on a better high back then, too.

Reggie Ball, yes. That asshole scares me, but what can you do. As for the U having better athletes, yes they do-but they have much better athletes than Duke, too, and that was a near disaster. Looking down Miami's schedule, there are NO good wins. GT's win over UVA is probably about on par to Miami's best win, their thumping of UNC. Miami hasn't come close to covering a road game this year.

I see blowout city here. I know it is a decent spot for Miami, but I honestly feel like if Coker could get them up, he would have done it last week to get some distraction from the fight black eye.

Anyway, I'm not really disagreeing with you since I did ask for why I was going to lose...just adding some more to my reasoning on that one.
I will be at that So Carolina game but you got a good line at -3. Anything higher I would be cautious about. Spurrier had the boys in Orange tonight as I drove back to my Apt...Here is why you could lose that game:

1)Spurrier owns Fulmer
2)This is going to be a loud stadium as long as the game is close and so I would consider that homefield advantage..
3)The cocks are getting better every week, when will they play a complete game? Youth is starting to turn into experience..

However with all that said, I will not be playing this game, just a fan in attendance but Tenn has more talent, is the better team, and Fulmer wants this game badddd!

I think Tenn is too much for the Cocks and they win something like 24-17...
ok, adding

Buffalo +35, 2 units +100
with the upcoming weather i think this one is even stronger

Notre Dame -13, 2 units, -106
As I said in redbeardes thread, my personal goal is to bet on Notre Dame every game and never admit that they are a colossal disappointment (SOME sarcasm included)

North Texas +350 (ONE unit)
this one is more of a gut feeling. i know redbearde likes it, but i'm not dumb enough to think that tailing one of his picks gives me a good chance to win...i just feel like in the battle of crap, weird things might dictate who wins-and if that means things are left up to chance, i'll take the big odds...
Okay Seabass, since you asked...

As shitty as miami has played, that team still has incredible talent and speed. Especially in the secondary, the defense is absolutely sick, and GT will have a tough time running on them. Only Louisville really plastered the U mightily.

GT has a problem I'm not seeing anyone talk about, and maybe it's my imagination, but I think Reggie Ball is hurt. He was hurt 2 games ago squeaking out a win against Maryland, and their bye week was supposedly going to let him heal.

But against Clemson, he didn't set his feet properly even once (even Mike Patrick noticed this, and he's a complete moron). After several plays, I saw him reach for what looked like a hammy... He threw for 12 of 25, 1TD and 1pick. If he passes like that again, I think the U has more than a fair shot at beating GT...and not just winning, but utterly pulverizing the Jackets.
Reggie also rushed 12 times for 8 whole yards. If Ball is the center of the Jacket offense, GT is buttfucked with a submarine this week.

As far as mindset is concerned, GT is on the way down. After beating UVA (surprise!), they screamed out to a huge lead on VPI, only to give it back up to damn near respectable. In the first quarter, GT was up 21-0 off of some questionable VPI play. For the rest of the game, VPI outplayed GT intercepting Ball twice, and outscoring em 27-17. If not for coughing up 4 fumbles, VPI would have likely won that game.

So GJ GT, but winning the TO battle doesn't make you the better just means you fucked up LESS that day.

Okay, so after this BIG WIN, GT goes to Maryland and squeaks out a win against the terps. I like this quote: "The No. 18 Yellow Jackets rallied with 13 fourth-quarter points behind Tashard Choice and Reggie Ball, then survived a last-minute scare to beat Maryland 27-23 on Saturday."

Reggie threw for 13-25 for 161, 1 sack, and a TD. He also ran 15 times for 84 yards. and GT needed some last minute heroics to win this game by 4.

Calvin Johnson, btw, IS the jackets passing offense. Shut him down, and the jackets (reggie) fall in on themselves. If anyone has the individual players to shut down CJ, it's Miami. If playing fairly doesn't work, fear not, they'll hit him with a helmet.

GT then gets a week off to recouperate. And they should show up and at LEAST compete with Clemson, but alas, the Jackets got their asses handed to them. That supposedly great defense gave up 338 yards RUSHING. 443 yards Total...much of which given up to an injured Davis.

On the offensive side, Ball's performance was, well, offensive....scoring only 7 points off of 238 yards evenly split between rush and pass. Georgia Tech was even +1 in turnovers, but Reggie couldn't get a damn thing done.

And I think he's injured.

I'm on Miami ML.

GL this week. I'm with you on NW, Notre DAme, and UNT...though I didn't get near as good a number as you on NW, and I'm not on the others. Let's win some this week!
GL this week Seabass, like the Buff play and looks like you got a good line on Tenn. GT offense just bothers me for some reason, never have liked their scheme or playcalling.

Per Red's writeup above - small note that GT/MD game was at GT.
im with u on n'western, buffalo and i like the notre dame pick.

i do have miami ml in a parlay and i think there is a decent chance they win that game.
Thank you for all of your critiques of the picks,or, at least for the Miami pick. That obviously has factored into my thinking a little bit, but I still like the GT side even if it is unpopular. We'll see what happens.

Adding 4 team, 13 pt teaser, 3 units -140
Notre Dame PK
Florida -1
Tulsa -1.5
Buffalo +48

Most likely a sucker bet, and then I will never be the sucker again after I lose this one. Hell, I'll probably lose it tonight on Tulsa. But I definitely like the looks of it. Problem is, you can take virtually any 4 teams in a 13 pt teaser and they will look pretty good. Oh well.

Starting to think about adding NEB at -5.5 too, but haven't done it yet...
Tell Seabass Why He'll Lose

G. Tech and Buffalo will lose because I am on both.....last two weeks have not been all that kind to me....almost time for college hoop anyway.

good luck bass.....:shake:
looks like u were right about Buffalo losing due to ur jinx, Jimmymo....

Adding a parlay, only posting this for record keeping purposes...

neb-5, USCml, FLAml, WMUml...2u to win 4.57