Teams with lookaheads and/or nothing to play for...

[gps_3]

Reading gyno's two threads (taking it easy this week and crushing defeats affecting future games) and looking at the slate this weekend got me thinking about how to cap (if it's possible) games where one of the teams has clinched a spot in their conference championship game already, as well as with teams that really have nothing to gain outside of bowl pecking order and teams that just want to get the season over with/ have a lame duck coach. Basically looking to fade big favorites that won't have their heads in the game, or dogs who just want to get the game over with. Help me out with ones I'm missing, especially from smaller conferences. Some in state rivalries may apply, but others might not, I don't know how heated and competitive some are. All we get down here is Alabama-Auburn

Teams that have clinched:

Ohio St -don't qualify, huge rivalry and any hope of BCSCG rests on win here and style points
Michigan St -Is Minny a rival? Definite lookahead to tOSU, will be on the Gophers most likely
Arizona St -in state rival, is it that heated? huge lookahead potential
Stanford -traditional rival, it's Notre Dame, should have won last year, etc. Nothing to gain PAC12 or BCS wise

Teams with nothing to play for:

Oregon -Holy war yes, coming off embarrassing loss, season goals ended against Stanford, no chance at BCS bowl. Is the rivalry strong enough to overcome their disappointment?

LSU -hangover effect, playing possibly worst team in conference, kind of a forced rivalry that doesn't excite fans much. Looking to hold my nose and bet the Hogs at the current number

Miami, Fl -season effectively in tailspin since loss to FSU. Traveling to cold as ass Pittsburgh, but outside chance of ACC Coastal division, right?

UGA -tough opponent to prep for in one week, loss of Murray has to be demoralizing, especially on heels of loss at AU, Tech is UGA's 3rd or 4th biggest rival?

South Carolina - i know it's a heated rivalry, but surely they won't be able to help having one eye looking toward Missouri. Clemson has lost how many in a row?

UCLA -not a favorite, but lost championship play-in game last week. don't know how heated rivalry really is. Could see USC much more motivated in this game with the players trying to get coach O the permanent gig

Teams that have given up:

Texas Tech? Kentucky? Arkansas? S. Florida? UCONN? Florida? NC State? S. Miss (although they are playing UAB, so maybe end 2 year losing streak),Ga St? Purdue? UVA?

Just looking for some interesting discussion, haven't made up my mind if it all means anything. Happy Thanksgiving gents.

 

[RetroVK]

Some spots I liked

Texas State bowl eligible with nothing to play for against Troy needing win for bowl.

BC with nothing to play for off emotional victory at Syracuse for 2h of b2b roadies ( some trends on this I believe where dog wins outright on the road and is then favored on the road the following week ) with orange needing a win for bowl eligibility. This is kind of the glaring one.

Washington - huge revenge game

usf -- instate game against ucf team who shouldn't care

Minnesota facing msu in meaningless game for msu where they have to play they senior qb who throws like a girl.

I bet three of those already

 

[M.O.T]

Agree with the thoughts on my guys, but I have the same give up question about Arkansas. I've probably seen them less than every other team in the conference so I don't know what to expect. From what I've read they've continued to play hard....but could the near win last week, coupled with the short week/holiday travel, finally be what breaks them?

 

[gps_3]

Agree with the thoughts on my guys, but I have the same give up question about Arkansas. I've probably seen them less than every other team in the conference so I don't know what to expect. From what I've read they've continued to play hard....but could the near win last week, coupled with the short week/holiday travel, finally be what breaks them?

Yeah that's why I put both teams on the list above. Could be playing hard to give bielema his first sec win. They won't win of course, but could see it closer than 24

 

[M.O.T]

Yeah, has the potential to be a real shitfest like last year.

 

[bones]

great thread...i tried to do same thing, with not as much panache', and what i came up with are these:

Arkansas: +24.5....same reasons as stated above. Think LSU wins, but maximum effort and by this margin? Won't bet LSU, consider Arkansas

Minnesota: +14.5..... MSU will win but has to be looking ahead.

USC: -3.5.....UCLA shud be down and USC up for Coach Ogeron, correct?

I appreciate this thread, gyno's caution and VK's comments. With all this in mind, the above 3 games are what i like and solicit comments

One more: I just don't think Texas loses to Tech in Austin ( I am a Longhorn ). I don't usually wager on Horns, but have for tomorrow.

 

[gps_3]

Bones, I like all 3 of those. Hope you cash

 

[M.W.]

Letdown spot for Arkansas. Should be a blowout.

 

[TahoeLegend]

One other consideration on LSU is the fact it's an afternoon game.

The crowd support in a day game is a shadow of what it is at night. I lost on LSU last year thinking it was a night game and only found out when the game started it was afternoon. LSU played like they were asleep the first half and finally got up to about 2/3 speed in the second half, but didn't come close to covering.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

USC: -3.5.....UCLA shud be down and USC up for Coach Ogeron, correct?

being up for Coach O has very little to do with the game. this is a very heated, cross-town rivalry. UCLA's o-line is kind of a mess right now, so that's the biggest single factor in the game right now.

USC's looking for revenge from last year...and believe it or not, they're looking for a 10 win season.

had all things been equal heading into the game...schedule, injuries, etc...UCLA would win. they still might. but that said, USC should win/cover here. fortunate things have lined up that way.

btw...hiring Coach O permanently would be a mistake, and Pat knows it...other than for recruiting. they need an out, which could come in their bowl matchup.

---------------------------------

anyhow, like the premise of the thread.

here's one...toledo. they should be a 2 TD fav here...but in this situation, i'm not sure i'd even lay 7 points to lowly ass akron.

here's another...south bama...just from the opposite end. they need a win here to keep the chance of a bowl open when they go up against louisiana the following week.

will UGA roll over w/out their QB???

 

[Carolina Guy]

being up for Coach O has very little to do with the game. this is a very heated, cross-town rivalry. UCLA's o-line is kind of a mess right now, so that's the biggest single factor in the game right now.

USC's looking for revenge from last year...and believe it or not, they're looking for a 10 win season.

had all things been equal heading into the game...schedule, injuries, etc...UCLA would win. they still might. but that said, USC should win/cover here. fortunate things have lined up that way.

btw...hiring Coach O permanently would be a mistake, and Pat knows it...other than for recruiting. they need an out, which could come in their bowl matchup.

---------------------------------

anyhow, like the premise of the thread.

here's one...toledo. they should be a 2 TD fav here...but in this situation, i'm not sure i'd even lay 7 points to lowly ass akron.

here's another...south bama...just from the opposite end. they need a win here to keep the chance of a bowl open when they go up against louisiana the following week.

will UGA roll over w/out their QB???

at a school like SC, I don't see a problem in having a great recruiter as the head coach bc there is no reason in the world why they can't get excellent o and d coordinators along with really good position coaches. For some reason, I've heard no one mentioning this. Think Mack Brown as most say.

 

[RetroVK]

Ya they almost won championships with Pete/Lane cheating but just got caught.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

at a school like SC, I don't see a problem in having a great recruiter as the head coach bc there is no reason in the world why they can't get excellent o and d coordinators along with really good position coaches. For some reason, I've heard no one mentioning this. Think Mack Brown as most say.

i kinda agree with that, but that's not really the issue. Coach O has mellowed, but he's still a problem waiting to happen. more importantly, it's very difficult/awkward for him to be the public face/voice of a high profile, major market team. it would be like having Zach Greinke walk/work in Tommy Lasorda's shoes...uncomfortable to say the least.

and ask Mack, Pete, Urban, or whoever...just about any great coordinator is another team's head coach the following year.

in any case, he wasn't Pat's guy. and this decision will define his legacy as their AD, so he'll be very careful...and be shooting for the very top.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

as a Bruin fan though...Lane was fuckin perfect for that USC job, and should've held it for life.

 

[bones]

thanks for the comments and responses guys....appreciate it. have not pulled trigger on usc yet, may not

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

i was right to question toledo. that's the MAC for ya.

and bones...im not trying to talk anyone off a USC bet tomorrow. tbh, if you like the game, that is in all likelihood the correct side...considering the o-line issues for the Bruins vs a very solid d-line for USC.

 

[RetroVK]

I mistyped what I meant by the usf - ucf spot ( ucf had plenty to play for ) but it won so won't feel guilty.

Think of all the teams that passed on Leach as he was being blackballed by athletic directors.... think of all the bad hires ..... I think he is doing a great job up there.

 

[gps_3]

So big favorites with little to gain have not fared so well (LSU and Oregon namely). Considering a bet on S miss. Going for 1st win in 2 years, uab nothing to play for except not being the team to lose to s miss. Hard to put money on them tjough