Well if the advantages are a better QB, better TE's, better special teams and begrudgingly better coaching (scratching head) then I guess I'll take that as a Pats fan....If Gronk doesn't get knocked out of the game after one reception then the Pats probably cover and this line opens at 7.5 and never goes below 7 (but I'm just guessing here) These Patriot defenders would make a good case to start on any team never mind the Eagles....Malcolm Brown, Patrick Chung,Trey Flowers, Stephon Gilmore, Devin McCourtney, Kyle Van Noy, James Harrison, Duron Harmon,Alan Branch. All very good at their respective jobs. And they are really young (except Harrison) so their energy level stays up throughout the game.Eagles D has been outstanding against the Falcons (Falcons should have won the game, they had how many tries at the goal line late?) and an anemic Vikings offense. But allowing just 10 and 7 is outstanding regardless of who you are playing. Scoring just 15 against Atlanta has to be a little disconcerting. Eagles run pass option offense isn't a lot different from what the Pats have seen in the past two weeks so they won't get caught like the Vikes did. And Foles is Foles I really don't care what he's done the last two weeks the Pats will be prepared for him. I think this game may offer a good second half wager if the first half is played close or the Pats are behind. They tend to use a lot of foils early in the game, using a host of options but the prime ones sparingly. Gronk is a really good blocker and he enjoys blocking so I expect to see him very vanilla in the beginning of the game. Cooks will be used as a foil route runner to wear down the defense because the guy never gets tired. He probably won't be a pass catching factor but he'll get a lot of attention.Tom will most likely use the hurry up later in the game if needed to further wear the D down. Trust me it works, watch 4th quarter film noting defenses against the Pats in close contests and they are gassed. Lets look at the last 10 games second half scoring, points the Pats have allowed starting from yesterdays game back 10 games 6,7,3,3,17, (Big Ben in a shoot out) 0,7,8,7,6. That's an average of 6.4 allowed in the second half over 10 games and take out the Pitt game and it's 5.2 I believe two reasons for this, the Pats tend to be soft between the 25 yard lines and guard against big plays early in the game and they adjust brilliantly at half time. They have a plan on how they analyze at half time and they utilize it very well, at the super bowl they get like 20 extra minutes to adjust. They work just as hard at halftime as they do the entire game. So the Pats and the under may be good second half wagers. Another unheralded unit on the Pats is the much maligned offensive line and deservedly so, they have had some bad games and Brady has gotten the shit kicked out of him in those games, he must have had a little trouble getting that 40 year old body out of bed on a few Monday mornings this year ha ha. But they are finally healthy for the first time this year and one could make a case that the Jags pass rush is better than the Eagles (I'm not sure, they are both good) and the Jags could not get to Brady. If the Eagles cannot ruffle Brady they will not win this game. And they will have to do it up the middle not from the edges because Brady has such good pocket awareness that he just moves up when he feels the pressure and gains another 1/2 to 1 second. And stop with the luck and the officials, you do not sustain 17 years of excellence because you got lucky or a few calls. I used all the same lines while the Yankees were beating my Red Sox year after year and now I realize that we were getting beat because they were better and smarter.
So onto the game, I will make a 2nd half wager if the game plays out correctly. I will consider the under as I did yesterday but never pulled the trigger and I will consider a tease with Philly and the under if the line somehow gets blown up to 7-7.5 As far as a side goes it's a tough call, if Bellycheck decides to go all vanilla in the early stages of the game and Philly's D gets confident then it could be close. A Philly team total of 20 or more under will be attractive as well as I truly feel that the Pats D is every bit as good as the Eagles and it's Foles, I don't care what anyone says, it's Nick Foles!!!! If one is not adverse to laying juice (I am) then pats ML may be the safest bet on the board. 27-16 Pats would be my guess
