SUPER BOWL CHAMPION 2025-2026

SEA vs NE can happen. It would be two 2nd Tier teams which is what we had last season. Why do you say it can't happen.
I think it's likely which is why I'm interested in those wagers

Just replying to Donks/Rams/Bills concept which I know one will but two could lose this weekend

Bills beating Broncos seems above 50% for me

Bears beating Rams seems almost 50% to me

Of course I'd love SEA v NE futures in that case
 
I think it's likely which is why I'm interested in those wagers

Just replying to Donks/Rams/Bills concept which I know one will but two could lose this weekend

Bills beating Broncos seems above 50% for me

Bears beating Rams seems almost 50% to me

Of course I'd love SEA v NE futures in that case
Seattle - New England would be a matchup that the Tiers & Seeds give no historic trend/seed advantage for either side. I dug up a little more info with both being 2nd Tier teams, one being a #1 seed and the other a #2 seed. Just based on this info alone...

(8) - #1 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 5 / 2nd Tier - 2 / 3rd Tier - 1

(5) - #2 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 3 / 2nd Tier - 2

Below is the Super Bowl matchups with both teams being a 2nd Tier team (L22 seasons).....

2025
2PHI (2ND TIER)
1KC (2ND TIER)

2018
1PHI (2nd Tier)
1NE (2nd Tier)

2009
2PIT (2nd Tier)
4AZ (2nd Tier)

That info is in comment #1 in this thread.

Thread 'SUPER BOWL CHAMPION 2025-2026' SUPER BOWL CHAMPION 2025-2026
 
  • Like
Reactions: KJ
As a 3rd Tier team the Bears aren't out of the question but the least likely to participate and/or win the SB, BUT if someone is looking for a larger payout they can be included in a SB Exacta. There's not a huge difference between 2nd and 3rd Tier teams besides being a SB participant.

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L22 YEARS (2004-2025)
1ST TIER 29/44, 66%
2ND TIER 11/44, 25%
3RD TIER 4/44, 9% BEARS
4TH TIER 0/44, 0%
5TH TIER 0/44, 0%
6TH TIER 0/44, 0%
7TH TIER 0/44, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L22 YEARS (2004-2025)
1ST TIER 16/22, 73%
2ND TIER 4/22, 18%
3RD TIER 2/22, 9% BEARS
4TH TIER 0/22, 0%
5TH TIER 0/22, 0%
6TH TIER 0/22, 0%
7TH TIER 0/22, 0%
 
The ONLY issue with the Bears is the 20 point system that I mentioned a few weeks ago.

Only 1 team had negative points and WON the Super Bowl, the 2007-2008 NYG.

The negative 20 point system teams in this year's playoffs are...

Pittsburgh -6 OUT
Green Bay -4 OUT
Chicago -1
?
 
Let the Houston Texans fade begin. Looks like the Patriots are about -170/-180.
SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L22 YEARS (2004-2025)
1ST TIER 29/44, 66%
2ND TIER 11/44, 25%
3RD TIER 4/44, 9%
4TH TIER 0/44, 0%
5TH TIER 0/44, 0% TEXANS
6TH TIER 0/44, 0%
7TH TIER 0/44, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L22 YEARS (2004-2025)
1ST TIER 16/22, 73%
2ND TIER 4/22, 18%
3RD TIER 2/22, 9%
4TH TIER 0/22, 0%
5TH TIER 0/22, 0% TEXANS
6TH TIER 0/22, 0%
7TH TIER 0/22, 0%
 
Below are my 3 Championship Exacta's that I like if one of these matchups occur. Any other combination has no clear betting advantage. Right now you can get an early Super Bowl line of AFC +3 if your book offers it.

- Broncos (1st Tier) def Seahawks (2nd Tier) +1600
- Bills (1st Tier) def Seahawks (2nd Tier) +1200

- Rams (1st Tier) def Patriots (2nd Tier) +1100
 
Below are my 3 Championship Exacta's that I like if one of these matchups occur. Any other combination has no clear betting advantage. Right now you can get an early Super Bowl line of AFC +3 if your book offers it.

- Broncos (1st Tier) def Seahawks (2nd Tier) +1600
- Bills (1st Tier) def Seahawks (2nd Tier) +1200

- Rams (1st Tier) def Patriots (2nd Tier) +1100
Definitely the way for you to use your work -- the exactas.

Good stuff.
 
I'm not sure if I've provided the Tier criteria in the last couple years I've posted this thread. Here it is below. The main philosophy is teams who have a fast start to the season are the teams who are in the mix at the end of the season. Its that simple and it's quite successful.

1st 4 games of the season ONLY.
1. SU record of 2-2 or better (+1)
2. Won at least 1 game by double digits (+1)
3. Scored 20+ points at least twice (+1)
4. Favored at least 3 times-closing line (+1)
5. Scored AT LEAST 80 points (+1)
6. Allowed LESS THAN 100 points (+1)

1st Tier 6/6
2nd Tier 5/6
3rd Tier 4/6
4th Tier 3/6
5th Tiet 2/6
6th Tier 1/6
7th Tiet 0/6

*I use the link below for closing lines as one found its the most accurate.

I'll give an example with the Houston Texans since I've stated they're OUT as a Super Bowl participant as were the hot Rams last season being out of the top 3 Tiers based on historical results of the system.

Houston Texans
1. SU record of 2-2 or better (+0)
2. Won at least 1 game by double digits (+1)
3. Scored 20+ points at least twice (+0)
4. Favored at least 3 times-closing line (+0)
5. Scored AT LEAST 80 points (+0)
6. Allowed LESS THAN 100 points (+1)

The Houston Texans have 2/6 which puts them in the 5th Tier.

Any questions iI'd be happy to answer. In addition to the criteria several years ago i added conference playoff seeds to each team and backtested the results since the 2003-2004 season and that's what I provide below each tier when I update weekly.

I've also backtested Super Bowl winning team Tiers and their playoff seeding. For example of the 4, 2nd Tier teams who have won the Super Bowl they were either a #1 or #2 seed. That's why the Eagles didn't make my short list this season. They were a 2nd Tier team but a #3 seed. Of course there's always outliers and nothing is a guarentee.

I'm sure there are critics out there who may think this is just another "system" that's doomed to fail. I can say I've personally used this for several seasons to guide me for futures bets, division winner futures etc and it works well, at least it has for the last 22+ years. Its very time consuming putting the list together for all teams but once it's done after week 4, it's done. My hope is everyone finds some value with this.
 
More about the Houston Texans and the Carolina Panthers. The other 12 playoff teams are in the top 3 Tiers. I posted this in comment #1 of this thread and with each weekly update throughout the season.

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L22 YEARS (2004-2025)
1ST TIER 29/44, 66%
2ND TIER 11/44, 25%
3RD TIER 4/44, 9%
4TH TIER 0/44, 0% CAROLINA
5TH TIER 0/44, 0% HOUSTON
6TH TIER 0/44, 0%
7TH TIER 0/44, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L22 YEARS (2004-2025)

1ST TIER 16/22, 73%
2ND TIER 4/22, 18%
3RD TIER 2/22, 9%
4TH TIER 0/22, 0% CAROLINA
5TH TIER 0/22, 0% HOUSTON
6TH TIER 0/22, 0%
7TH TIER 0/22, 0%

NO 4TH-7TH TIER TEAM HAS PARTICIPATED IN THE SB CAROLINA/
HOUSTON OUT
 
Last edited:
I'm not sure if I've provided the Tier criteria in the last couple years I've posted this thread. Here it is below. The main philosophy is teams who have a fast start to the season are the teams who are in the mix at the end of the season. Its that simple and it's quite successful.

1st 4 games of the season ONLY.
1. SU record of 2-2 or better (+1)
2. Won at least 1 game by double digits (+1)
3. Scored 20+ points at least twice (+1)
4. Favored at least 3 times-closing line (+1)
5. Scored AT LEAST 80 points (+1)
6. Allowed LESS THAN 100 points (+1)

1st Tier 6/6
2nd Tier 5/6
3rd Tier 4/6
4th Tier 3/6
5th Tiet 2/6
6th Tier 1/6
7th Tiet 0/6

*I use the link below for closing lines as one found its the most accurate.

I'll give an example with the Houston Texans since I've stated they're OUT as a Super Bowl participant as were the hot Rams last season being out of the top 3 Tiers based on historical results of the system.

Houston Texans
1. SU record of 2-2 or better (+0)
2. Won at least 1 game by double digits (+1)
3. Scored 20+ points at least twice (+0)
4. Favored at least 3 times-closing line (+0)
5. Scored AT LEAST 80 points (+0)
6. Allowed LESS THAN 100 points (+1)

The Houston Texans have 2/6 which puts them in the 5th Tier.

Any questions iI'd be happy to answer. In addition to the criteria several years ago i added conference playoff seeds to each team and backtested the results since the 2003-2004 season and that's what I provide below each tier when I update weekly.

I've also backtested Super Bowl winning team Tiers and their playoff seeding. For example of the 4, 2nd Tier teams who have won the Super Bowl they were either a #1 or #2 seed. That's why the Eagles didn't make my short list this season. They were a 2nd Tier team but a #3 seed. Of course there's always outliers and nothing is a guarentee.

I'm sure there are critics out there who may think this is just another "system" that's doomed to fail. I can say I've personally used this for several seasons to guide me for futures bets, division winner futures etc and it works well, at least it has for the last 22+ years. Its very time consuming putting the list together for all teams but once it's done after week 4, it's done. My hope is everyone finds some value with this.
Great stuff
 
More about the Houston Texans and the Carolina Panthers. The other 12 playoff teams are in the top 3 Tiers. I posted this in comment #1 of this thread and with each weekly update throughout the season.

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L22 YEARS (2004-2025)
1ST TIER 29/44, 66%
2ND TIER 11/44, 25%
3RD TIER 4/44, 9%
4TH TIER 0/44, 0% CAROLINA
5TH TIER 0/44, 0% HOUSTON
6TH TIER 0/44, 0%
7TH TIER 0/44, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L22 YEARS (2004-2025)

1ST TIER 16/22, 73%
2ND TIER 4/22, 18%
3RD TIER 2/22, 9%
4TH TIER 0/22, 0% CAROLINA
5TH TIER 0/22, 0% HOUSTON
6TH TIER 0/22, 0%
7TH TIER 0/22, 0%

NO 4TH-7TH TIER TEAM HAS PARTICIPATED IN THE SB CAROLINA/
HOUSTON OUT

So did you take Steelers and start the chase against Texans?
 
AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Buffalo (AFC #6) OUT DIV RD
Los Angeles C (AFC #7) OUT WC RD

2ND TIER

SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4) OUT WC RD
Jacksonville (AFC #3) OUT WC RD

5TH TIER

SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Houston Texans (AFC #5)

NFC
1ST TIER

SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #5)
Green Bay (NFC #7) OUT WC RD

2ND TIER

SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
San Francisco (NFC #6) OUT DIV RD
Philadelphia (NFC #3) OUT WC RD

3RD TIER

SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)

4TH TIER

SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs

Carolina Panthers (NFC#4) OUT WC RD
 
Last edited:
I hope some of you jumped on the Houston Texans FADE i mentioned several times.

With the Houston Texans loss today, 4th-7th Tier teams continue to be non participants in the Super Bowl, now for the L23 seasons. 2, 1st TIER and 2, 2nd Tier teams remain.

Based on past Tier & Conference seed results L22 seasons, below are the possible matchups with the results. The Rams win with both of their 2 possibilities. Keep in mind DEN will be playing with a back-up QB.

If you're holding a LAR Super Bowl futures ticket it's looking pretty good IF they can get by the Seahawks next week.

LAR def NE
LAR def DEN
DEN def SEA
NE vs SEA (No opinion)

AFC
1ST TIER

SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Buffalo (AFC #6) OUT DIV RD
Los Angeles C (AFC #7) OUT WC RD

2ND TIER

SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4) OUT WC RD
Jacksonville (AFC #3) OUT WC RD

5TH TIER

SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Houston Texans (AFC #5) OIT DIV RD

NFC
1ST TIER

SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #5)
Green Bay (NFC #7) OUT WC RD

2ND TIER

SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
San Francisco (NFC #6) OUT DIV RD
Philadelphia (NFC #3) OUT WC RD

3RD TIER

SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2) OUT DIV RD

4TH TIER

SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs

Carolina Panthers (NFC#4) OUT WC RD
 
20 out of the past 22 seasons the Super Bowl champion has been either a 1st Tier or 2nd Tier team. After this season it will be 21 out of the past 23 seasons with only 1st and 2nd Tier teams remaining.

Ist Tier 16/22
2nd Tier 4/22
3rd Tier 2/22

REMAINING TIERS
1st Tier
Denver (AFC #1)
Los Angeles R (NFC #5)

2nd Tier
Seattle (NFC #1)
New England (AFC #2)


REMAINING SEEDS (SB Winners)
(8) - #1 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 5 / 2nd Tier - 2 / 3rd Tier - 1
Seattle / Denver Broncos

(5) - #2 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 3 / 2nd Tier - 2
New England (AFC #2)

(2)
- #5 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 1 / 3rd Tier - 1
Los Angeles R (NFC #5)

REMAINING SEEDS (SB Losers)

(15) - #1 seeds have lost the SB. (6 of those played another #1 seed)
1st Tier - 11 / 2nd Tier - 4
Seattle / Denver Broncos

(4)
- #2 seeds have lost the SB (1 of those played another #2 seed)
1st Tier - 3 / 3rd Tier - 2
New England (AFC #2)

(0) - #5 seeds have lost the SB
Los Angeles R (NFC #5)


My scenarios as of today are below. Super Bowl winner locked in after CC games. Side and POSSIBLY game total.

No matchup has the Seattle Seahawks winning the Super Bowl. The Los Angeles Rams win with both of their possible matchups


LAR def NE
(1st Tier 2-0 vs 2nd Tier/Lower seed 2-0 vs higher seed/Team worse regular season record 2-0/Lower 20 point system rank/#5 seed 2-0)

LAR def DEN

(Lower seed 2-0 vs higher seed/Team worse regular season record 2-0/Lower 20 point system rank/#5 seed 2-0)

DEN def SEA
(1st Tier 2-0 vs 2nd Tier)

NE def SEA Very slight edge NE. Same record, same Tier.
(#2 seed 3-1 vs #1 seed/Lower 20 point system rank)
 
Last edited:
Another Super Bowl stat for the Los Angeles Rams. If they make the Super Bowl they will be the only team this season remaining that will have played back to back road games prior to the Super Bowl...

Since 1999 superbowl teams off b2b road games (Los Angeles Rams) are 8-3 su and 10-0-1 ats. If they beat Seattle they will be the favorite over either the Patriots or the Broncos so if they keep the ATS record above undefeated they will win SU.


In addition for the Los Angeles Rams & the New England Patriots. Since 1992, 14 teams have made it to the superbowl via the wildcard week route. In these games the total has went opposite of the CC game 12/14 times with that same team going 12-1-1 ats, which will give us the side and game total.

To sum up all my information if the Rams defeat the Seahawks they would be the clear cut team to defeat either the Patriots or Broncos. Seattle vs Broncos/Patriots has less historical predictability but lean to both AFC teams.
 
Posted before the start of the playoffs. ALL 4 teams on my Super Bowl short list out of the 14 playoff teams still remain.

Based on past results with Tiers and Seeds this would be the short list.

AFC
Denver (AFC #1) ✔
Buffalo (AFC #6)
New England (AFC #2) ✔

NFC
Los Angeles R (NFC #6) ✔
Seattle (NFC #1) ✔
 
The Rams are currently +135 vs Seahawks this weekend and +230 to win Super Bowl. Pretty good Super Bowl odds considering they'll be the favorite vs either Patriots or Broncos.

So you'd be getting the Rams at +230 instead of the +135 to win it all if that makes sense. That tells me the best Super Bowl VALUE is with the Rams.

With that being said if they lose to Seattle its a moot point.
 
Feb 08 3:30 PM PT
SB Exacta
DENVER DEF SEATTLE +2100
LOS ANGELES R DEF DENVER +700
LOS ANGELES R DEF NEW ENGLAND +390


Feb 08 3:30 PM PT
SB Champion
DENVER +1200
LOS ANGELES R +240


(Value Bets based on Fast Start Tiers and Conf Seeds L22 seasons)
 
The Fast Start bets are my opinions of the best value with SB exactas based on my research of the Tiers and Conf Seeds since the 2003-2004 season. These aren't all final result possibilities, of course but are the best exacta possibilities & results if any of these 3 matchup's occur.

The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are the least predictable matchup if they were to play in the SB.
 
DEN def SEA (1st Tier vs 2nd Tier)
1st Tier 3-0 vs 2nd Tier L22 years.

LAR def DEN (1st Tier vs 1st Tier)
Lower seed 6-0 vs higher seed/Team worse regular season record 6-0/Lower 20 point system rank/#5 seed 2-0 L 22 years.

LAR def NE (1st Tier vs 2nd Tier)
1st Tier 3-0 vs 2nd Tier/Lower seed 2-0 vs higher seed/Team worse regular season record 3-0/Lower 20 point system rank/#5 seed 2-0 L22 years
 
Crazy that I think the Seattle Seahawks are the best team collectively in this century and that includes the early 2000 Ravens and all the Brady teams.

I also think their QB is a younger, better version of the LA QB. Intriguing matchups tomorrow and I think defense rules the day
 
Crazy that I think the Seattle Seahawks are the best team collectively in this century and that includes the early 2000 Ravens and all the Brady teams.

I also think their QB is a younger, better version of the LA QB. Intriguing matchups tomorrow and I think defense rules the day
I'll be totally ok with Seattle...As long as Denver wins also 🤣
 
2, 2nd Tier teams will participate in the Super Bowl for back to back seasons. 19/23 seasons has included 1st Tier teams, 2nd Tier teams or both. The other 4 Super Bowls included a 3rd Tier team. No 4th Tier-7th Tier team has been a Super Bowl participant now for the last L23 seasons.

Typically, when a 1st Tier team is eliminated, a 2nd Tier team takes their place. This season was the case with the highest seeded 2nd Tier team remaining.

AFC
1ST TIER

SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1) OUT CC RD
Buffalo (AFC #6) OUT DIV RD
Los Angeles C (AFC #7) OUT WC RD

2ND TIER

SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2) SUPER BOWL
Pittsburgh (AFC #4) OUT WC RD
Jacksonville (AFC #3) OUT WC RD

5TH TIER

SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Houston Texans (AFC #5) OIT DIV RD

NFC
1ST TIER

SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #5) OUT CC RD
Green Bay (NFC #7) OUT WC RD

2ND TIER

SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1) SUPER BOWL
San Francisco (NFC #6) OUT DIV RD
Philadelphia (NFC #3) OUT WC RD

3RD TIER

SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2) OUT DIV RD

4TH TIER

SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs

Carolina Panthers (NFC#4) OUT WC RD
 
"Typically, when a 1st Tier team is eliminated, a 2nd Tier team takes their place. This season was the case with the highest seeded 2nd Tier team remaining."

This is to show before the start of and during the playoffs how the highest remaining seed, 2nd Tier team moved up after a 1st Tier team loss.

PRIOR TO WC RD
AFC
1. DEN (1st Tier - #1 Seed)
2. BUF (1st Tier - #6 Seed)
3. LAC (1st Tier - #7 Seed)

4. NE (2nd Tier - #2 Seed)
5. JAC (2nd Tier - #3 Seed)
6. PITT (2nd Tier - #4 Seed)

7. HOU (3rd Tier - #5 Seed)


NFC
1. LAR (1st Tier - #5 Seed)
2. GB (1st Tier - #7 Seed)

3. SEA (2nd Tier - #1 Seed)
4. PHI (2nd Tier - #3 Seed)
5. SF (2nd Tier - #6 Seed)

6. CHI (3rd Tier - #2 Seed)

7. CAR (4th Tier - #4 Seed)


PRIOR TO DIV RD
AFC
1. DEN (1st Tier - #1 Seed)
2. BUF (1st Tier - #6 Seed)
3. NE (2nd Tier - #2 Seed) ⬆️ Replace LAC

4. HOU (3rd Tier - #5 Seed)

NFC
1. LAR (1st Tier - #5 Seed)
2. SEA (2nd Tier - #1 Seed) ⬆️ Replace GB

3. SF (2nd Tier - #6 Seed)

4. CHI (3rd Tier - #2 Seed)


PRIOR TO CC RD
AFC
1. DEN (1st Tier - #1 Seed)
2. NE (2nd Tier - #2 Seed)

NFC
1. LAR (1st Tier - #5 Seed)
2. SEA (2nd Tier - #1 Seed)

PRIOR TO SB
AFC
1. NE (2nd Tier - #2 Seed) ⬆️ Replace DEN

NFC
1. SEA (2nd Tier - #1 Seed) ⬆️ Replace LAR
 
SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L23 YEARS (2004-2026)
1ST TIER 29/46, 63.0%
2ND TIER 13/46, 28.3%
3RD TIER 4/46, 8.7%
4TH TIER 0/46, 0%
5TH TIER 0/46, 0%
6TH TIER 0/46, 0%
7TH TIER 0/46, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L23 YEARS (2004-2026)
1ST TIER 16/23, 69.6%
2ND TIER 5/23, 21.7%
3RD TIER 2/23, 8.7%
4TH TIER 0/23, 0%
5TH TIER 0/23, 0%
6TH TIER 0/23, 0%
7TH TIER 0/23, 0%

1ST TIER SUPER BOWL WINNING SEASONS
2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

2ND TIER SUPER BOWL WINNING SEASONS
2009, 2017, 2018, 2025, 2026

3RD TIER SUPER BOWL WINNING SEASONS
2004, 2008
 
Back
Top