Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
3, 1st Tier teams remain and are leading the pack for a Championship.
Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Rams
Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Rams
Buffalo Bills
Would still be more entertaining than what we getStill say Ravens vs Lions
SEA vs NE can happen. It would be two 2nd Tier teams which is what we had last season. Why do you say it can't happen.Seattle v New England it is!
Man according to this that can't happen so should I buy that ticket at this point?
I think it's likely which is why I'm interested in those wagersSEA vs NE can happen. It would be two 2nd Tier teams which is what we had last season. Why do you say it can't happen.
Seattle - New England would be a matchup that the Tiers & Seeds give no historic trend/seed advantage for either side. I dug up a little more info with both being 2nd Tier teams, one being a #1 seed and the other a #2 seed. Just based on this info alone...I think it's likely which is why I'm interested in those wagers
Just replying to Donks/Rams/Bills concept which I know one will but two could lose this weekend
Bills beating Broncos seems above 50% for me
Bears beating Rams seems almost 50% to me
Of course I'd love SEA v NE futures in that case
SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L22 YEARS (2004-2025)Let the Houston Texans fade begin. Looks like the Patriots are about -170/-180.
Definitely the way for you to use your work -- the exactas.Below are my 3 Championship Exacta's that I like if one of these matchups occur. Any other combination has no clear betting advantage. Right now you can get an early Super Bowl line of AFC +3 if your book offers it.
- Broncos (1st Tier) def Seahawks (2nd Tier) +1600
- Bills (1st Tier) def Seahawks (2nd Tier) +1200
- Rams (1st Tier) def Patriots (2nd Tier) +1100
Great stuffI'm not sure if I've provided the Tier criteria in the last couple years I've posted this thread. Here it is below. The main philosophy is teams who have a fast start to the season are the teams who are in the mix at the end of the season. Its that simple and it's quite successful.
1st 4 games of the season ONLY.
1. SU record of 2-2 or better (+1)
2. Won at least 1 game by double digits (+1)
3. Scored 20+ points at least twice (+1)
4. Favored at least 3 times-closing line (+1)
5. Scored AT LEAST 80 points (+1)
6. Allowed LESS THAN 100 points (+1)
1st Tier 6/6
2nd Tier 5/6
3rd Tier 4/6
4th Tier 3/6
5th Tiet 2/6
6th Tier 1/6
7th Tiet 0/6
*I use the link below for closing lines as one found its the most accurate.
Historical NFL Game Odds |SportsOddsHistory.com
Sports Odds History on Covers features historical betting odds, archived futures, and season-by-season market data for major pro and college sports.www.covers.com
I'll give an example with the Houston Texans since I've stated they're OUT as a Super Bowl participant as were the hot Rams last season being out of the top 3 Tiers based on historical results of the system.
Houston Texans
1. SU record of 2-2 or better (+0)
2. Won at least 1 game by double digits (+1)
3. Scored 20+ points at least twice (+0)
4. Favored at least 3 times-closing line (+0)
5. Scored AT LEAST 80 points (+0)
6. Allowed LESS THAN 100 points (+1)
The Houston Texans have 2/6 which puts them in the 5th Tier.
Any questions iI'd be happy to answer. In addition to the criteria several years ago i added conference playoff seeds to each team and backtested the results since the 2003-2004 season and that's what I provide below each tier when I update weekly.
I've also backtested Super Bowl winning team Tiers and their playoff seeding. For example of the 4, 2nd Tier teams who have won the Super Bowl they were either a #1 or #2 seed. That's why the Eagles didn't make my short list this season. They were a 2nd Tier team but a #3 seed. Of course there's always outliers and nothing is a guarentee.
I'm sure there are critics out there who may think this is just another "system" that's doomed to fail. I can say I've personally used this for several seasons to guide me for futures bets, division winner futures etc and it works well, at least it has for the last 22+ years. Its very time consuming putting the list together for all teams but once it's done after week 4, it's done. My hope is everyone finds some value with this.
More about the Houston Texans and the Carolina Panthers. The other 12 playoff teams are in the top 3 Tiers. I posted this in comment #1 of this thread and with each weekly update throughout the season.
SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L22 YEARS (2004-2025)
1ST TIER 29/44, 66%
2ND TIER 11/44, 25%
3RD TIER 4/44, 9%
4TH TIER 0/44, 0% CAROLINA
5TH TIER 0/44, 0% HOUSTON
6TH TIER 0/44, 0%
7TH TIER 0/44, 0%
SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L22 YEARS (2004-2025)
1ST TIER 16/22, 73%
2ND TIER 4/22, 18%
3RD TIER 2/22, 9%
4TH TIER 0/22, 0% CAROLINA
5TH TIER 0/22, 0% HOUSTON
6TH TIER 0/22, 0%
7TH TIER 0/22, 0%
NO 4TH-7TH TIER TEAM HAS PARTICIPATED IN THE SB CAROLINA/HOUSTON OUT
No, I didn't. I am on New England ML this weekSo did you take Steelers and start the chase against Texans?
Based on past results with Tiers and Seeds this would be the short list.
AFC
Denver (AFC #1) ✔
Buffalo (AFC #6)
New England (AFC #2) ✔
NFC
Los Angeles R (NFC #6) ✔
Seattle (NFC #1) ✔
I'll be totally ok with Seattle...As long as Denver wins alsoCrazy that I think the Seattle Seahawks are the best team collectively in this century and that includes the early 2000 Ravens and all the Brady teams.
I also think their QB is a younger, better version of the LA QB. Intriguing matchups tomorrow and I think defense rules the day