SUPER BOWL CHAMPION 2025-2026

Super Bowl Short List (Prior to week 18). Week 18 results will tell us a lot.

AFC
Denver (AFC #1)
*Locked in

Los Angeles C (AFC #6) OR Buffalo (AFC #7)
*IN IF #5 SEED OR #6 SEED

New England (AFC #2)
*IN IF #2 SEED

Jacksonville (AFC #3)
*IN IF #2 SEED

NFC
Los Angeles R (NFC #6)
*Locked in

Philadelphia (NFC #3)
*IN IF #2 SEED

Seattle (NFC #1) OR San Francisco (NFC #5)
*IN IF #1 SEED


ELIMINATED TEAMS
HOUSTON
PITTSBURGH
BALTIMORE
CHICAGO
GREEN BAY
TAMPA BAY
CAROLINA
 
Yeah, you can definitely toss out SF if they're not the 1 seed as the path would involve @ Philly, @ Chicago, and @ NFCC game. No shot with that defense.

But if they can get the bye - I expect Fred to come back and play 3rd downs and get that team running through walls.
 
Inspekdah said:
Yeah, you can definitely toss out SF if they're not the 1 seed as the path would involve @ Philly, @ Chicago, and @ NFCC game. No shot with that defense.

But if they can get the bye - I expect Fred to come back and play 3rd downs and get that team running through walls.
Click to expand...
Agree with all of your analysis. I only eliminated the loser of that game because the 4, 2nd Tier SB winners were either a #1 or #2 seed. It doesn't mean that won't change at some point though.
 
FINAL TIERS - FINAL UPDATE

AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Buffalo (AFC #6)
Los Angeles C (AFC #7)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Jacksonville (AFC #3)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)
Indianapolis ELIMINATED
Kansas City ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Baltimore ELIMINATED

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #5)
Green Bay (NFC #7)
Minnesota ELIMINATED

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
Philadelphia (NFC #3)
San Francisco (NFC #6)
Detroit ELIMINATED
Washington ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)
Tampa Bay  ELIMINATED
Atlanta ELIMINATED
Arizona ELIMINATED

4TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Carolina Panthers ELIMINATED

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Houston Texans ELIMINATED
 
Loves2kickass said:
@HUNT This is after the early games today. Buffalo is the only team that can reach 20 points now. The teams in the negative highly unlikely to reach the Super Bowl. Its only happened once.

AFC
BUF +17
DEN +14
HOU +12
NE +9
LAC +6
JAX +3
PIT -6
BAL -6

NFC
SEA +15
LAR +8
SF +6
PHI +6
CAR +3
CHI +2
GB -4
TB -4
Click to expand...
Seattle with 20 if you count 14 as +3. Not sure the specifics on that
 
Loves2kickass said:
UPDATED FINAL SUPER BOWL TIERS - WEEK 4 (Through 09/27/2025)

1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Buffalo Bills (AFC #1)
Los Angeles Chargers (AFC #3)
Los Angeles Rams (NFC #6)
Green Bay Packers (NFC (NFC #7)
Minnesota Vikings (NFC #8)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC #1)
San Francisco 49ers (NFC #2)
Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC #2)
Detroit Lions (NFC #3)
Indianapolis Colts (AFC #4)
Seattle Seahawks (NFC #5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC #5)
Kansas City Chiefs (AFC #7)
New England Patriots AFC (AFC #8)
Washington Commanders (NFC #12)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC #4)
Atlanta Falcons NFC #9
Arizona Cardinals (NFC #10)
Chicago Bears (NFC #11)
Baltimore Ravens (AFC #12)

4TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Carolina Panthers (ELIMINATED)

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Dallas Cowboys (ELIMINATED)
New York Giants (ELIMINATED)
Las Vegas Raiders (ELIMINATED)
Houston Texans (ELIMINATED)

6TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0-22, 0% L 22 yrs
Cleveland Browns (ELIMINATED)

7TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0-22, 0% L 22 yrs)
New Orleans Saints (ELIMINATED)
Tennessee Titans (ELIMINATED)
Click to expand...
Did you just forget to put Denver in this edition? Have they always been tier1…? Thanks
 
FINAL TIERS - FINAL UPDATE

All qualifying playoff teams listed.

AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Buffalo (AFC #6)
Los Angeles C (AFC #7)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Jacksonville (AFC #3)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Houston Texans (AFC #5)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #5)
Green Bay (NFC #7)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
Philadelphia (NFC #3)
San Francisco (NFC #6)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)

4TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Carolina Panthers (NFC#4)
 
Texans not to win superbowl is -180? What is like Denver or rams or Seattle , even money?
 
AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Buffalo (AFC #6)
Los Angeles C (AFC #7)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Jacksonville (AFC #3)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Houston Texans (AFC #5)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #5)
Green Bay (NFC #7)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
Philadelphia (NFC #3)
San Francisco (NFC #6)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)

4TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Carolina Panthers (NFC#4) OUT WC RD
 
AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Buffalo (AFC #6)
Los Angeles C (AFC #7)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Jacksonville (AFC #3)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Houston Texans (AFC #5)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #5)
Green Bay (NFC #7) OUT WC RD

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
Philadelphia (NFC #3)
San Francisco (NFC #6)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)

4TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Carolina (NFC#4) OUT WC RD
 
If Denver, Buffalo and the Chargers win on Sunday this may be a good look ahead line to consider betting with AFC +3 or +ML. Reason is 3 of the 4 remaining AFC teams would be 1st Tier, while the NFC only has 1 remaining (Rams).

These are some of the types of scenarios I look at after each day of playoffs for a possible futures bet.

1000033548.jpg
 
jdoggoakley said:
Where do you get the “no” at -180? BM has “no” at -2150!
Click to expand...

pb278817 said:
Could bet the whole league with those odds and make bank
Click to expand...

pb278817 said:
Texans not to win superbowl is -180? What is like Denver or rams or Seattle , even money?
Click to expand...

pb278817 said:
You can post whatever you want but how a team is -180 to not win the sb is Scotty sharp type line
Click to expand...
Here ya go. It's back up at Circa for you to bet. Now do you believe me? I don't make shit up.

1000033555.jpg
 

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AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Buffalo (AFC #6)
Los Angeles C (AFC #7)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Jacksonville (AFC #3) OUT WC RD
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Houston Texans (AFC #5)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #5)
Green Bay (NFC #7) OUT WC RD

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
Philadelphia (NFC #3)
San Francisco (NFC #6)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)

4TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Carolina Panthers (NFC#4) OUT WC RD
 
AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Buffalo (AFC #6)
Los Angeles C (AFC #7)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)
Jacksonville (AFC #3) OUT WC RD

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Houston Texans (AFC #5)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #5)
Green Bay (NFC #7) OUT WC RD

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
San Francisco (NFC #6)
Philadelphia (NFC #3) OUT WC RD

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)

4TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Carolina Panthers (NFC#4) OUT WC RD
 
AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Buffalo (AFC #6)
Los Angeles C (AFC #7) OUT WC RD

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)
Jacksonville (AFC #3) OUT WC RD

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Houston Texans (AFC #5)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #5)
Green Bay (NFC #7) OUT WC RD

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
San Francisco (NFC #6)
Philadelphia (NFC #3) OUT WC RD

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)

4TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Carolina Panthers (NFC#4) OUT WC RD
 
AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Buffalo (AFC #6)
Los Angeles C (AFC #7) OUT WC RD

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4) OUT WC RD
Jacksonville (AFC #3) OUT WC RD

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Houston Texans (AFC #5)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #5)
Green Bay (NFC #7) OUT WC RD

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
San Francisco (NFC #6)
Philadelphia (NFC #3) OUT WC RD

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)

4TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Carolina Panthers (NFC#4) OUT WC RD
 
Loves2kickass said:
Based on past results with Tiers and Seeds this would be the short list.

AFC
Denver (AFC #1)
Buffalo (AFC #6)
New England (AFC #2)

NFC
Los Angeles R (NFC #6)
Seattle (NFC #1)
Click to expand...
Texans & Bears the only outliers.

The Texans would defy the odds as no 5th Tier team has ever won the Super Bowl (last 22 seasons). The Bears hanging on by a thread but not impossible as only 2, 3rd Tier teams have won the Super Bowl (last 22 seasons) so not impossible. The last time was 2007-2008 NY Giants.

Here's my scenarios for a SB Exacta after WC round. 1st Tier teams have played 2nd Tier teams 3 times in the Super Bowl and won all 3.

- Broncos (1st Tier) def Seahawks (2nd Tier)
- Bills (1st Tier) def Seahawks (2nd Tier)
- Rams (1st Tier) def Patriots (2nd Tier)

All other matchups would have no significant edge based on Tiers and Seeds from past 22 seasons but slight edge with the following...

- #1Broncos (1st Tier) def #5Rams (1st Tier)
*Slight edge based on Conference Seed*

(8) - #1 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 5 / 2nd Tier - 2 / 3rd Tier - 1

(2) - #5 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 1 / 3rd Tier - 1


- Rams (1st Tier) vs Bills (1st Tier)
*No opinion. Both 1st Tier #5 & #6 Seeds
- Seahawks (2nd Tier) vs Patriots (2nd Tier)
*No opinion. Both 2nd Tier #1 & #2 Seeds
 
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