SUPER BOWL CHAMPION 2025-2026

This week should start the process of the real contenders separating from the pack and who we thought may be contenders start to slide back.
 
FINAL TIERS - UPDATED PLAYOFF SEEDS THROUGH WEEK 9 (11/02)

Teams in BOLD RED are currently in the playoffs. Teams in RED qualify but are currently out of the playoffs. All others get ready for next season.

1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver Broncos (AFC #3)
Green Bay Packers (NFC #4)
Buffalo Bills (AFC #5)
Los Angeles Rams (NFC #5)
Los Angeles Chargers (AFC #6)
Minnesota Vikings (NFC #10)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Indianapolis Colts (AFC #1)
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC #1)
New England Patriots AFC (AFC #2)
Seattle Seahawks (NFC #3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC #4)
San Francisco 49ers (NFC #6)
Detroit Lions (NFC #7)
Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC #7)
Kansas City Chiefs (AFC #8)
Washington Commanders (NFC #13)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC #2)
Chicago Bears (NFC #8)
Baltimore Ravens (AFC #10)
Atlanta Falcons (NFC #12)
Arizona Cardinals (NFC #14)

4TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Carolina Panthers

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
Las Vegas Raiders
Houston Texans

6TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0-22, 0% L 22 yrs
Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals

7TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0-22, 0% L 22 yrs)
New Orleans Saints
Tennessee Titans
 
Through week 9 - Super Bowl Champion list based on Tier & conference seed. (1st Tier must be top 6 seed; 2nd Tier & 3rd Tier must be top 2 seed)

*This is my list from previous history results L22 seasons and it changes week to week depending on playoff seeding.

1ST TIER
Denver Broncos (AFC #3)
Green Bay Packers (NFC #4)
Buffalo Bills (AFC #5)
Los Angeles Rams (NFC #5)
Los Angeles Chargers (AFC #6)

2ND TIER
Indianapolis Colts (AFC #1)
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC #1)
New England Patriots AFC (AFC #2)
 
Loves2kickass said:
The 2nd Tier Seattle Seahawks look very intriguing to me if they can win their division putting them as a top 4 seed.

Past history of 2nd Tier teams show they must be a top 4 seed as a 2nd Tier team to qualify as a SB Champion, as listed in my opening comment with past champion Tiers & Seeds.

San Francisco looks down and out with all the injuries so their only hurdle in being a serious contender will be the Los Angeles Rams "in" division. Out of division it will be the Detroit Lions in my opinion.

If Seattle can manage a top 2 seed in the NFC and stay healthy look out. They're the only team in the NFL in the top 5 in all 3 categories (DEF, OFF, ST) in DVOA after 6 weeks. This has happened 6 times. 4 of those 6 won the SB, 1 lost the SB and 1 failed to make the playoffs.

The Seattle Seahawks are a team to keep a close eye on.
Click to expand...
Seattle, again, is very good. They need to win their division to be considered with past history of Tiers/seeds since they are 2nd Tier. Still a team to keep an eye on.
 
FINAL TIERS - UPDATED PLAYOFF SEEDS THROUGH WEEK 10

Teams in BOLD RED are currently in the playoffs. Teams in RED qualify but are currently out of the playoffs. All others get ready for next season.

1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver Broncos (AFC #2)
Los Angeles Rams (NFC #5)
Los Angeles Chargers (AFC #5)
Buffalo Bills (AFC #6)
Green Bay Packers (NFC #7)
Minnesota Vikings (NFC #10)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Indianapolis Colts (AFC #1)
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC #1)
Seattle Seahawks (NFC #2)
New England Patriots AFC (AFC #3)
Detroit Lions (NFC #3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC #4)
Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC #7)
San Francisco 49ers (NFC #8)
Kansas City Chiefs (AFC #8)
Washington Commanders (NFC #14)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC #4)
Chicago Bears (NFC #6)
Baltimore Ravens (AFC #10)
Arizona Cardinals (NFC #12)
Atlanta Falcons (NFC #13)

4TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Carolina Panthers

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
Las Vegas Raiders
Houston Texans

6TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0-22, 0% L 22 yrs
Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals

7TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0-22, 0% L 22 yrs)
New Orleans Saints
Tennessee Titans
 
Through week 10 - Super Bowl Champion list based on Tier & conference seed.

NFC

1ST TIER
Los Angeles Rams (NFC #5)

2ND TIER
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC #1)
Seattle Seahawks (NFC #2)


 AFC

1ST TIER
Denver Broncos (AFC #2)
Los Angeles Chargers (AFC #5)
Buffalo Bills (AFC #6)

2ND TIER
Indianapolis Colts (AFC #1)
 
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FINAL TIERS - UPDATED PLAYOFF SEEDS THROUGH WEEK 11

Teams in BOLD RED are currently in the playoffs. Teams in RED qualify but are currently out of the playoffs. All others get ready for next season.

AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver Broncos (AFC #1)
Buffalo Bills (AFC #5)
Los Angeles Chargers (AFC #6)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England Patriots AFC (AFC #2)
Indianapolis Colts (AFC #3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC #4)
Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC #7)
Kansas City Chiefs (AFC #9)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Baltimore Ravens (AFC #10)


 NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles Rams (NFC #2)
Green Bay Packers (NFC #6)
Minnesota Vikings (NFC #10)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC #1)
Seattle Seahawks (NFC #5)
San Francisco 49ers (NFC #7)
Detroit Lions (NFC #8)
Washington Commanders (NFC #14)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago Bears (NFC #3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC #4)
Arizona Cardinals (NFC #12)
Atlanta Falcons (NFC #13)
 
Adding seeding info to the SB Champion Tiers L22 seasons -

(8) - #1 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 5 / 2nd Tier - 2 / 3rd Tier - 1

(5) - #2 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 3 / 2nd Tier - 2

(2) - #3 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 2

(3) - #4 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 3

(2) - #5 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 1 / 3rd Tier - 1

(2) - #6 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 2

(0) - #7 seeds have won the SB

1st Tier Champions / 1st-6th seed
2nd Tier Champions / 1st-2nd seed
3rd Tier Champions / 1st & 5th seed
 
Through week 11 - Super Bowl Champion list based on the above post. 3rd Tier is a personal decision to leave off until end of regular season, then I'll re-evaluate.

NFC
1ST TIER
Los Angeles Rams (NFC #2)
Green Bay Packers (NFC #6)

2ND TIER
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC #1)

 AFC
1ST TIER
Denver Broncos (AFC #1)
Buffalo Bills (AFC #5)
Los Angeles Chargers (AFC #6)

2ND TIER
New England Patriots AFC (AFC #2)


Top 4 now would be Broncos, Rams, Patriots, Eagles
 
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Colin Cowherd just stated his playoff bracket as of today with the winners in each round. His final 4 are DEN vs NE & PHI vs LAR with LAR beating DEN in SB, and exact match to my best 4 teams above. It doesn't mean anything but thought it was interesting It could be a bad thing 🤣
 
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FINAL TIERS - UPDATED PLAYOFF SEEDS THROUGH WEEK 12

Teams in BOLD RED are currently in the playoffs. Teams in RED qualify but are currently out of the playoffs. All others get ready for next season.

AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver Broncos (AFC #2)
Los Angeles Chargers (AFC #5)
Buffalo Bills (AFC #7)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England Patriots AFC (AFC #1)
Indianapolis Colts (AFC #3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC #6)
Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC #9)
Kansas City Chiefs (AFC #10)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Baltimore Ravens (AFC #4)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles Rams (NFC #1)
Green Bay Packers (NFC #6)
Minnesota Vikings (NFC #12)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC #2)
Seattle Seahawks (NFC #5)
San Francisco 49ers (NFC #7)
Detroit Lions (NFC #8)
Washington Commanders (NFC #14)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago Bears (NFC #3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC #4)
Atlanta Falcons (NFC #11)
Arizona Cardinals (NFC #13)
 
Yea when a 3 seed or higher plays a 1 or 2 seed the 3 seed or higher has not lost a ATS spread.

Even more if a signal there was 2 times the 3 seed or higher was a favorite vs a 1 or 2 seed the favorites win ATs as well. The worst Super Bowl betting are:

1 vs 1
1 vs 2
 
spottie2935 said:
Yea when a 3 seed or higher plays a 1 or 2 seed the 3 seed or higher has not lost a ATS spread.

Even more if a signal there was 2 times the 3 seed or higher was a favorite vs a 1 or 2 seed the favorites win ATs as well. The worst Super Bowl betting are:

1 vs 1
1 vs 2
Click to expand...
It all starts with the Tiers and then I use the seeds to narrow the champion field.

In the last 22 seasons a 1st Tier team has played a 2nd Tier team in the Bowl 4 times and 1st Tier is 4-0. That's shown in my first post in this thread.
 
FINAL TIERS - UPDATED PLAYOFF SEEDS THROUGH WEEK 13

Teams in BOLD RED are currently in the playoffs. Teams in RED qualify but are currently out of the playoffs. All others get ready for next season.

AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver Broncos (AFC #2)
Los Angeles Chargers (AFC #5)
Buffalo Bills (AFC #7)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England Patriots AFC (AFC #1)
Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC #3)
Indianapolis Colts (AFC #6)
Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC #9)
Kansas City Chiefs (AFC #10)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Baltimore Ravens (AFC #4)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles Rams (NFC #2)
Green Bay Packers (NFC #6)
Minnesota Vikings (NFC #12)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC #3)
Seattle Seahawks (NFC #5)
San Francisco 49ers (NFC #7)
Detroit Lions (NFC #8)
Washington Commanders (NFC #14)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago Bears (NFC #1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC #4)
Atlanta Falcons (NFC #11)
Arizona Cardinals (NFC #13) ELIMINATED
 
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FINAL TIERS - UPDATED PLAYOFF SEEDS THROUGH WEEK 14

Teams in BOLD RED are currently in the playoffs. Teams in RED qualify but are currently out of the playoffs. All others get ready for next season.

AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Los Angeles C (AFC #5)
Buffalo (AFC #6)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Jacksonville (AFC #3)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)
Indianapolis (AFC #8)
Kansas City (AFC #10)

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Baltimore (AFC #9)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #1)
Green Bay (NFC #2)
Minnesota (NFC #11)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Philadelphia (NFC #3)
Seattle (NFC #5)
San Francisco (NFC #6)
Detroit (NFC #8)
Washington (NFC #15) ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #7)
Tampa Bay (NFC #9)
Atlanta (NFC #12) ELIMINATED
Arizona (NFC #13) ELIMINATED
 
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Here's my Super Bowl contenders through week 14 using Tiers and Conf Seeds. The field is starting to narrow to just a few teams.

AFC
Denver (AFC #1)
Los Angeles C (AFC #5)
Buffalo (AFC #6)
New England (AFC #2)

NFC
Los Angeles R (NFC #1)
Green Bay (NFC #2)
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Hoping for BILLS 💙♥️🤍vs anyone

But my gut says Texans vs Packers
Click to expand...
Based solely on the Tiers the Texans this year are the Rams from last year. No chance to make the SB being outside of the top 3 Tiers. Specifically Houston is a 5th Tier team. No shot at all to be in the final game.

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
Las Vegas Raiders
Houston Texans
 
Loves2kickass said:
Based solely on the Tiers the Texans this year are the Rams from last year. No chance to make the SB being outside of the top 3 Tiers. Specifically Houston is a 5th Tier team. No shot at all to be in the final game.

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
Las Vegas Raiders
Houston Texans
Click to expand...


You may have gone over this before , but what puts them in these tiers ?
 
FINAL TIERS - UPDATED PLAYOFF SEEDS THROUGH WEEK 15

Teams in BOLD RED are currently in the playoffs. Teams in RED qualify but are currently out of the playoffs. All others get ready for next season.

AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Los Angeles C (AFC #5)
Buffalo (AFC #6)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Jacksonville (AFC #3)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)
Indianapolis (AFC #8)
Kansas City ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Baltimore (AFC #9)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #1)
Green Bay (NFC #7)
Minnesota ELIMINATED

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Philadelphia (NFC #3)
Seattle (NFC #5)
San Francisco (NFC #6)
Detroit (NFC #8)
Washington ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)
Tampa Bay (NFC #4)
Atlanta ELIMINATED
Arizona ELIMINATED
 
Here's my Super Bowl contenders through week 15 using Tiers and Conf Seeds.

Keeping a close eye on Buffalo. In a seperate system - They're very close to qualifying to be in the SB.

AFC
Denver (AFC #1)
Los Angeles C (AFC #5)
Buffalo (AFC #6)
New England (AFC #2)

NFC
Los Angeles R (NFC #1)
 
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B.A.R. said:
What's the story on Seattle?
Click to expand...
Seattle is a 2nd Tier qualifier. The only reason I have them off my list is because the 4, 2nd Tier Super Bowl Champions have been either a #1 or #2 seed. Also, if they slip to the #6 seed that would distance themselves further as the only 2, #6 seeds to win the Super Bowl were both 1st Tier teams.

They are right there though. They are 1 win away this week vs the Rams from being on my short list.
 
Loves2kickass said:
Seattle is a 2nd Tier qualifier. The only reason I have them off my list is because the 4, 2nd Tier Super Bowl Champions have been either a #1 or #2 seed. Also, if they slip to the #6 seed that would distance themselves further as the only 2, #6 seeds to win the Super Bowl were both 1st Tier teams.

They are right there though. They are 1 win away this week vs the Rams from being on my short list.
Click to expand...
Have that short list ready, Seattle ML -108

This post has inspired myself... (new thread coming)
 
B.A.R. said:
Have that short list ready, Seattle ML -108

This post has inspired myself... (new thread coming)
Click to expand...
I really like them also. Had a shot to beat the Rams last time with 4 INT's. But, since that loss they haven't really looked the same to me but they're right there with a W this week.

In the AFC if Buffalo can win 1 more game while allowing less than 14 points and don't lose a game allowing more than 30 watch out. We may just have the AFC Super Bowl representative. Along with that if they win their division that's the cherry on top.
 
I posted this on Sept 21st in my opening comment in this thread and thought I'd repost. It shows L22 years Super Bowl participants with Tiers and Seeds.

SUPER BOWL TEAMS,TIERS & CONFERENCE SEEDS L 22 YEARS. WINNER IN BOLD

2025
2PHI (2ND TIER)
1KC (2ND TIER)

2024
3KC (1st Tier)
1SF (1st Tier)

2023
1KC (1st Tier)
1PHI (1st Tier)

2022
4LAR (1st Tier)
4CIN (2nd Tier)

2021
5TB (1st Tier)
1KC (1st Tier)

2020
2KC (1st Tier)
1SF (2nd Tier)

2019
2NE (1st Tier)
2LAR (1st Tier)

2018
1PHI (2nd Tier)
1NE (2nd Tier)

2017
1NE (2nd Tier)
2ATL (3rd Tier)

2016
1DEN (1st Tier)
1CAR (1st Tier)

2015
1NE (1st Tier)
1SEA (1st Tier)

2014
1SEA (1st Tier)
1DEN (1st Tier)

2013
4BAL (1st Tier)
2SF (1st Tier)

2012
4NYG (1st Tier)
1NE (1st Tier)

2011
6GB (1st Tier)
2PIT (3rd Tier)

2010
1NO (1st Tier)
1IND (1st Tier)

2009
2PIT (2nd Tier)
4AZ (2nd Tier)

2008
5NYG (3rd Tier)
1NE (1st Tier)

2007
3IND (1st Tier)
1CHI (1st Tier)

2006
6PIT (1st Tier)
1SEA (2nd Tier)

2005
2NE (1st Tier)
1PHI (1st Tier)

2004
1NE (3rd Tier)
3CAR (2nd Tier)

Here's where we're at through 15 games of the current season. FINAL TIERS - UPDATED PLAYOFF SEEDS THROUGH WEEK 15

Teams in BOLD RED are currently in the playoffs. Teams in RED qualify but are currently out of the playoffs. Teams ELIMINATED qualified based on Tiers but are officially out of the playoffs. All others not listed get ready for next season.

AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Los Angeles C (AFC #5)
Buffalo (AFC #6)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Jacksonville (AFC #3)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)
Indianapolis (AFC #8)
Kansas City ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Baltimore (AFC #9)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #1)
Green Bay (NFC #7)
Minnesota ELIMINATED

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Philadelphia (NFC #3)
Seattle (NFC #5)
San Francisco (NFC #6)
Detroit (NFC #8)
Washington ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)
Tampa Bay (NFC #4)
Atlanta ELIMINATED
Arizona ELIMINATED

Adding seeding info to the SB Champion Tiers L22 seasons

(8) - #1 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 5 / 2nd Tier - 2 / 3rd Tier - 1

(5) - #2 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 3 / 2nd Tier - 2

(2) - #3 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 2

(3) - #4 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 3

(2) - #5 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 1 / 3rd Tier - 1

(2) - #6 seeds have won the SB
1st Tier - 2

(0) - #7 seeds have won the SB

1st Tier Champions / 1st-6th seed
2nd Tier Champions / 1st-2nd seed
3rd Tier Champions / 1st & 5th seed


Adding seeding info to the SB loser Tiers L22 seasons

(15) - #1 seeds have lost the SB. (6 of those played another #1 seed)
1st Tier - 11 / 2nd Tier - 4

(4) - #2 seeds have lost the SB (1 of those played another #2 seed)
1st Tier - 3 / 3rd Tier - 2

(1) - #3 seed have lost the SB
2nd Tier - 1

(2) - #4 seeds have lost the SB (1 of those played another #4 seed)
2nd Tier - 2

(0) - #5 seeds have lost the SB

(0) - #6 seeds have lost the SB

(0) - #7 seeds have lost the SB

1st Tier SB Loser / 1st, 3rd and 4th seed
2nd Tier SB Loser / 1st, 3rd and 4th seed
3rd Tier SB Loser / 1st & 5th seed


A COUPLE NOTABLE FACTS
●NO 4TH-7TH TIER TEAM HAS PARTICIPATED IN THE SB HOUSTON OUT
●NO #7 SEED HAS PARTICIPATED IN THE SB
GREEN BAY/HOUSTON OUT

There's many other possibilities you can draw from this. Its a lot of info. I use all this info to narrow down my SB possibilities.
 
@B.A.R. and everyone. This is a very interesting read. This isn't my system. Its from a late friend of mine who passed last year and I've continued it and back tested it multiple times.

This isnt necessarily Tier info but I've mentioned BUFFALO a couple times in the last week so I'll share why I did mention them as a possible Super Bowl Participant. With a seperate "Trend".

In the L22 seasons, teams who reach 20 points during the regular season have participated in the Super Bowl 4 times and won all 4. No team has reached 20 points and NOT participated in the Super Bowl. Only 1 team had negative points and participated in the Super Bowl, the 2007-2008 NYG (I have that list of teams with negative points for this season if anyone wants it).

Here is the exact criteria -
● +3 points for every win allowing <14 points
● +2 points for every win allowing >30 points
● -3 points for every loss allowing >30 points
● -2 points for every loss allowing <14 points

Here's the update through week 15 for playoff contenders who can get to at least 20 points with 3 games remaining (IF Houston reaches 20 points i have a problem because they are officially eliminated from Super Bowl contention based on Tiers) -

AFC
BUF +17 (1st Tier)
DEN +14 (1st Tier)
HOU +12 (5th Tier - ELIMINATED)
NFC
LAR +11 (1st Tier)

Very interesting that 3 of the 4 teams who can still reach the 20 point threshold are 1st Tier teams and all 4 previous teams who qualified and won the Super Bowl were also 1st Tier teams.
 
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FINAL TIERS - UPDATED PLAYOFF SEEDS THROUGH WEEK 16

Teams in BOLD RED are currently in the playoffs. Teams in RED qualify but are currently out of the playoffs. Teams ELIMINATED qualified based on Tiers but are officially out of the playoffs. All others not listed get ready for next season.

AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Los Angeles C (AFC #5)
Buffalo (AFC #6)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Jacksonville (AFC #3)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)
Indianapolis (AFC #8)
Kansas City ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Baltimore (AFC #9)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #6)
Green Bay (NFC #7)
Minnesota ELIMINATED

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
Philadelphia (NFC #3)
San Francisco (NFC #5)
Detroit (NFC #8)
Washington ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)
Tampa Bay (NFC #10)
Atlanta ELIMINATED
Arizona ELIMINATED
 
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Here's my Super Bowl contenders through week 16 using Tiers and Conf Seeds.

Keeping a close eye on Buffalo. In a seperate system - They're very close to qualifying to be in the SB. They need 1 game (vs PHI & NYJ) allowing less than 14 pts and they're in.

AFC
Denver (AFC #1)
Los Angeles C (AFC #5)
Buffalo (AFC #6)
New England (AFC #2)

NFC
Los Angeles R (NFC #6)
Seattle (NFC #1)
Chicago (NFC #2)
 
FINAL TIERS - UPDATED. Another team eliminated (Detroit) in the top 3 Tiers. This works people. If a team isn't in BOLD RED they have work to do. If a team isn't listed at all they have no chance at a SB appearance (Houston/Carolina)

Teams in BOLD RED are currently in the playoffs. Teams in RED qualify but are currently out of the playoffs. Teams ELIMINATED qualified based on Tiers but are officially out of the playoffs. All others not listed get ready for next season.

AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Los Angeles C (AFC #5)
Buffalo (AFC #6)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Jacksonville (AFC #3)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)
Indianapolis (AFC #8)
Kansas City ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Baltimore (AFC #9)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #6)
Green Bay (NFC #7)
Minnesota ELIMINATED

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
Philadelphia (NFC #3)
San Francisco (NFC #5)
Detroit ELIMINATED
Washington ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)
Tampa Bay (NFC #10)
Atlanta ELIMINATED
Arizona ELIMINATED
 
Loves2kickass said:
@B.A.R. and everyone. This is a very interesting read. This isn't my system. Its from a late friend of mine who passed last year and I've continued it and back tested it multiple times.

This isnt necessarily Tier info but I've mentioned BUFFALO a couple times in the last week so I'll share why I did mention them as a possible Super Bowl Participant. With a seperate "Trend".

In the L22 seasons, teams who reach 20 points during the regular season have participated in the Super Bowl 4 times and won all 4. No team has reached 20 points and NOT participated in the Super Bowl. Only 1 team had negative points and participated in the Super Bowl, the 2007-2008 NYG (I have that list of teams with negative points for this season if anyone wants it).

Here is the exact criteria -
● +3 points for every win allowing <14 points
● +2 points for every win allowing >30 points
● -3 points for every loss allowing >30 points
● -2 points for every loss allowing <14 points

Here's the update through week 15 for playoff contenders who can get to at least 20 points with 3 games remaining (IF Houston reaches 20 points i have a problem because they are officially eliminated from Super Bowl contention based on Tiers) -

AFC
BUF +17 (1st Tier)
DEN +14 (1st Tier)
HOU +12 (5th Tier - ELIMINATED)
NFC
LAR +11 (1st Tier)

Very interesting that 3 of the 4 teams who can still reach the 20 point threshold are 1st Tier teams and all 4 previous teams who qualified and won the Super Bowl were also 1st Tier teams.
Click to expand...

Update on this please. Thanks for all you do
 
Denver 15
New England 9
Jags 4
Pitt -1
LAC 9
Buffalo 14
Houston 12

Seattle 14
Chicago 5
Philly 9
Carolina 3
SF 3
LAR 9
Green Bay 0

By my count
 
HUNT said:
Update on this please. Thanks for all you do
Click to expand...
@HUNT This is after the early games today. Buffalo is the only team that can reach 20 points now. The teams in the negative highly unlikely to reach the Super Bowl. Its only happened once.

AFC
BUF +17
DEN +14
HOU +12
NE +9
LAC +6
JAX +3
PIT -6
BAL -6

NFC
SEA +15
LAR +8
SF +6
PHI +6
CAR +3
CHI +2
GB -4
TB -4
 
For whatever it's worth here are my current teams in order that are likely to reach the super Bowl

AFC
BEST chances
1. PATRIOTS
2. TEXANS
3. BRONCOS. Without bye likely 5th
Alive with a real change
4 . BILLS
5. JAGUARS
One and done ?
6. RAVENS
7. CHARGERS
8. STEELERS

NFC
1. 49ERS. projected bye
2. RAMS
3. BEARS
4. SEAHAWKS
5. EAGLES
6. BUCCANEERS /PANTHERS
8. PACKERS
 
FINAL TIERS - UPDATED (Prior to MNF)

Teams in BOLD RED are currently in the playoffs. Teams in RED qualify but are currently out of the playoffs.

AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Los Angeles C (AFC #6)
Buffalo (AFC #7)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Jacksonville (AFC #3)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)
Indianapolis ELIMINATED
Kansas City ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Baltimore (AFC #9)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #6)
Green Bay (NFC #7)
Minnesota ELIMINATED

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
Philadelphia (NFC #3)
San Francisco (NFC #5)
Detroit ELIMINATED
Washington ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)
Tampa Bay (NFC #11)
Atlanta ELIMINATED
Arizona ELIMINATED

4TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Carolina Panthers ELIMINATED

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Houston Texans ELIMINATED
 
Last edited:
Looks like a 5 team race to the championship based on Tiers and Seeds as of now (DEN, LAC, NE, LAR, SEA) but that can change by the end of next week. Possibly 6 if you add CHI as a 3rd Tier team but not likely.
 
Loves2kickass said:
FINAL TIERS - UPDATED (Prior to SNF)

Teams in BOLD RED are currently in the playoffs. Teams in RED qualify but are currently out of the playoffs.

AFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Denver (AFC #1)
Los Angeles C (AFC #6)
Buffalo (AFC #7)

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
New England (AFC #2)
Jacksonville (AFC #3)
Pittsburgh (AFC #4)
Indianapolis ELIMINATED
Kansas City ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Baltimore (AFC #9)

NFC
1ST TIER
SB Participant 29/44, 66% L22 yrs
SB Champion 16/22, 73% L 22 yrs
Los Angeles R (NFC #6)
Green Bay (NFC #7)
Minnesota ELIMINATED

2ND TIER
SB Participant 11/44, 25% L22 yrs
SB Champion 4/22, 18% L 22 yrs
Seattle (NFC #1)
Philadelphia (NFC #3)
San Francisco (NFC #5)
Detroit ELIMINATED
Washington ELIMINATED

3RD TIER
SB Participant 4/44, 9% L22 yrs
SB Champion 2/22, 9% L 22 yrs
Chicago (NFC #2)
Tampa Bay (NFC #11)
Atlanta ELIMINATED
Arizona ELIMINATED

4TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Carolina Panthers ELIMINATED

5TH TIER
SB Participant 0/44, 0% L22 yrs
SB Champion 0/22, 0% L 22 yrs
Houston Texans ELIMINATED
Click to expand...

pb278817 said:
What’s keeping Houston off any tiers?
Click to expand...
5th Tier team - ELIMINATED
 
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