Sunday Night Round Table 08/16/15 - Futures & Week 1 Discussion

The other thing that would concern me if I liked Minnesota is Patterson history against the run. That is what Minnesota likes to do and it is very tough, historically, to run for a ton of success against TCU ... he likes to take that away first.

Now, they lost White who I think was a pretty damn good DB who they often let play an island last year ... don't think they can do that week 1 generally but are they really going to get hurt by Leidner passing to those bums on the outside? They lose almost all of their catches year over year.

excellent point about MN receivers. only 2 receivers that caught more than 6 passes last year are back for the gophers. that's a lot of pressure against a defense like TCU.

the problem with tcu though, is here:

their best DT is gone, their best LB's are gone, (all three) and their DC retired.

the 4-2-5 shouldn't be this good against the run, and i blame patterson's maniacal coaching for this.

the defensive line matters a lot in the 4-2-5, the linebackers need room to get in the backfield and fuck shit up. chucky hunter was amazing at this, and it might be a little more difficult for that to happen in the season opener. MN can't pass, they're gonna run, run, run. ok fine: can the new TCU linebackers scrape and stuff like last year's group, especially without hunter? if TCU can do what they normally do--stop the run, this shouldn't be a hard road to coverage town, but can they? i think it's a valid question a reason why so many are probably hung up on this number.

the other factor we aren't touching is how fast TCU is in general. MN won't be able to set the edge here, and the talent deficiency is real. the gophers were good against shitty teams, decent against decent teams, and beat shitty teams. that's exactly what a well coached, but unremarkable team does. i think this is another year of that for the gophers.
 
I think the main thing with tOSU all season will be focus. It sounds trite to say, but it's proven true over and over that teams coming off a championship don't play with the same intensity as the year before.

Agreed. And I would think that having so much competition at the various spots will keep everyone on their toes.

It's still not a senior-laden team so it's an interesting dynamic. It's not like you have a bunch of 5th year guys that are there to enjoy the college lifestyle. Guys like Darron Lee, Von Bell, Zeke, etc. are all looking to turn pro early and this is essentially a season long NFL tryout for Braxton Miller at WR so it would be in their best interests to show up.
 
Here we we go.. On the iPad so may be disjointed a little. While the noise emananting form coral gables regarding team unity is similar to years past, I believe this is the first year where Golden has a proliferation of "his" guys. Kaaya has become the lead dog here. Sounds like there was a splintered locker rooms and a lot of "hero" ball especially on the defensive side. AL has mentioned that there were guys more worried about playing for thr NFL and not respecting their assignments.

That being said, the schedule blows for the canes this year. I count only 2 definite wins on the schedule. Outside of the FSU and Clemson, the rest of the ACC slate is a tossup. I can see them going 9-2 or 5-7 and everything in between.

This is team is a complete 180 from recent canes teams. This should be the best defense golden has had in his time here.

Quick thoughts:

best depth esp on defense golden has had.

DL is deep but questions abound at DT. Love the return of Muhammad and need either chad thomas or McCord to step up their game.

RapheL Kirby has emerged at MLB

love be the secondary this year especially the safety poistion


Questions abound on offense outside of QB.

Very ry very concerned about the ol. Theynhave rotated a number of guys during summer camp. And really only Linder and maybe isadora have locked in spots.

unproven talent is the name of the game at the skill positions.

THE RETURN or lack of from Stacy coley could make or break this offense. Not a ton of catches return at the WR spot. Lacked confidence last year. And couldn't catch the ball in practice.

Pat this point, TE is a 3 headed monster. No one has separated themselves.


I think ink rb should be fine and have been hearing good things about the frosh Walton.


My concerns are all the unproven guys on offense especially the line and the defensive scheme. Golden has a fierce loyalty to donofrio. The party line is that the sheme wasn't the problem, rather the lack of player belief in it. While I think the players finally have the best team unity in years and seem to care about one another, this team is probably a year away. Will golden be around to see it?


Tiring of of typing and will be happy to answer any questions on the team that anyone has

the scheme miami played against nebraska was one of the worst coaching jobs i've seen in a long time.
 
Agreed. And I would think that having so much competition at the various spots will keep everyone on their toes.

It's still not a senior-laden team so it's an interesting dynamic. It's not like you have a bunch of 5th year guys that are there to enjoy the college lifestyle. Guys like Darron Lee, Von Bell, Zeke, etc. are all looking to turn pro early and this is essentially a season long NFL tryout for Braxton Miller at WR so it would be in their best interests to show up.

We Alabama fans have 1st hand experience here. The most talented team we've had under Saban was in 2010. We went 10-3. That team had so many good players, but just didn't come together or play with the urgency of the 09 team.
 
What do you guys think about the Scary-UNC game?

UNC clearly has the edge on offense

South Carolina has edge on defense

How much of an impact will Chizik have on that awful UNC defense?
 
Schute,
I will have to text my cousin for info but sacred heart is laying 27.5 to saint something I have never heard of..
 
What do you guys think about the Scary-UNC game?

UNC clearly has the edge on offense

South Carolina has edge on defense

How much of an impact will Chizik have on that awful UNC defense?


When I look at stats I use Bill Connelly's advanced analytics to rank offense and defense. His S&P ratings are an advanced scoring algorithm and I think basically the best thing out there. Here's the explanation...http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

So I see UNC as having the #36 ranked offense last year, 42 in rushing and 31 in passing. They return a dual threat guy in Williams and a pocket guy in Trubisky and I expect both to play this year and I actually think it will work fine. They have one of the better QB situations in the country IMO...not the best QB in the country but they're one of a handful of teams who have two above average guys ready to play. I think Williams gets the majority of the snaps against South Carolina. Every carry from their run game returns last year as do 105 career offensive line starts. Hard not to expect that #42 ranked running game to improve inside the top 25 with relative ease. They lose their starting TE and a depth WR but return their top 4 pass catchers overall. This offense should be legit. They played at an extremely fast pace this year and with everyone back and having an understanding of the system, it's hard to envision the pace not being lightning fast this year. I think we could see a top 25 running game and a top 15 passing game with the overall offense being top 10-15. That wouldn't really shock me at all.

So how will they matchup against South Carolina's defense? It's a defense that returns 8 starters, keeps their DC while also hiring a new DC. This should make for an interesting dynamic between Hoke and Ward. Hoke is really the boss but Ward keeps a co-DC title and has known the players for their entire careers. The 105 ranked DL loses a starting DT and a depth DE but returns 7 guys with significant experience last year and adds some quality JUCOs. This unit has to improve and they will have better players and better coaching. However how much can they possibly improve? It's hard to envision them getting much inside the top 50 and the first game they play what will be a solid run game with QB who can move if they're unable to pressure him or if they miss a tackle. UNC could very well run for 200 yards I think. The LB crew loses a starter and a depth guy but again should improve overall. In the back they lose a depth SS but everyone else is back and the 71st ranked pass defense in the country last year should improve inside the top 40.

This matchup comes down to a D-Line being able to force the pass and pressure the QB. They will need help from a decent LB crew. I just think this is a tough matchup for the front 7 of South Carolina. They were terrible against the run last year and didn't pressure the QB effectively. Now they are going against an OL who was Top 50 in 2014 and returns 105 career starts. If Fedora sticks with the run and uses the mobility of Williams UNC should be able to put up points with regularity.
 
Now to cover the SoCar offense vs the UNC defense

SoCar actually had the 17 ranked offense last year, 16 in passing and 19 in rushing. The problem is that they had some ill timed turnovers and their counterparts on defense couldn't stop a nose bleed. With that said their leading returning passer is their star WR...that doesn't bode well. Their QBs had pretty bad stats in the last scrimmage and Spurrier hasn't sounded high on any of them which could be sandbagging. I expect a dropoff at QB from an underappreciated Dylan Thompson. He could toss the ball but he was incredibly immobile and followed Connor Shaw. Improved mobility and worse passing from the QB position makes me think we may see South Carolina start 3 different QBs over the course of the season. I think the game 1 starter will be Connor Mitch and he will get a nice secondary to start again. This team ran the ball well last year and despite the loss of Davis their overall quality isn't really diminished b/c Wilds, Williams and Carson are all solid. The problem is they lose 3 OL starters, 1 who was an All-American, and 99 career OL starts. The 23rd ranked OL from 2014 does return 74 career starts split among 5 guys though so I actually don't expect a ton of dropoff in this unit. Career starts is such an important stat. I think they can maintain top 25-30 status. In the pass catching department Pharoah Cooper is back but he's the only WR/TE back who caught more than 10 passes. I expect a lot of double teams his way and a significant dropoff in the passing game

UNC returns 7 starters from the 108 ranked defense and they add Chizik as the DC. Gene had to spend the first week teaching general defensive principles and base defense which isn't a good sign. The 64 ranked DL from last year loses a starting DT but returns the next 7 in terms of experience so the front should improve mildly. They weren't as bad at pressuring the QB as they were stopping the run which has inflated their ranking. An awful LB crew loses 2 starters and a backup so they should be simply awful again. They are really going to need the DL to get pressure and be able to contribute significantly in run defense because this LB crew is likely to miss a few gaps and not be able to cover much intermediate stuff. The secondary of the 108 ranked pass defense loses a starting FS but returns 8 with experience. They will improve but still be a pretty bad unit.

The key here is SoCar being able to run the ball and Spurrier sticking to it. Spurrier loves to pass and going to the pass when the run was working has hurt him a few times over the past few years. There is no reason SoCar shouldn't be able to run the ball here. There are reasons why they could struggle in the passing game, given a new QB, new WR corps and a UNC DL that I expect to be better against the pass. The SoCar pace is actually moderately slow. Coaching and ST advantage to the South Carolina squad

In summation, both teams need to stick with the run to maximize their chance to win. Both rushing offenses have a significant advantage over the rush defenses. UNC has better weapons in the passing game but likely will have a worse pass defense. I consider this game as close to a wash as it can get but would give the coaching and ST units an advantage to South Carolina. If both teams run as expected and Spurrier continues to keep a moderately slow pace, then I could make an argument for the under. However I just can't trust Spurrier and Fedora to stick to running the ball. Whichever coach sticks to it will find themselves 1-0 on September 3rd
 
That is some excellent analysis by Connelly on the matchup in Charlotte (hope everyone realizes UNC/Scary is a neutral site game); my PR's have UNC as an ever so small favorite. A total toss-up game for the side.

I really like his analysis regarding the Under; I think the pace and style should dictate an under, but we all know the OBC and Fedora may not play it that way even though they probably should. It would be the Under or nothing for me on this game.
 
Clown had TCU -14 as a 'talk me off lean'.

Anyone willing to take a stab at talking him off of it?

-14 looks kinda trap-ish. TCU's end of year performance plus returning their entire offense isn't exactly a secret.

TCU loses a lot defensively but with Minnesota's core offensive group gone I'm not sure how much they'll be able to make TCU pay. Minny kept it relatively close against Mizzou in last year's bowl game but the talent discrepancy was apparent. Don't see it being any easier vs TCU.


More of a season comment then this game, but I’m down a bit on TCU this season. Other than the obvious (defence – loss of starters, loss of stats, loss of long-time DC), I think the offense will regress. 12 months ago it looked like Boykin may not get the starting job, and then he goes on to be 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] team All American. A new offensive scheme came in before last season, so teams have had a full offseason to study it and Boykin in it. I think Boykins true level is under what he did last season. For that I don’t think either the offense or defence will perform at the same level this season.

Plus they were kissed on the dick last season in regards to injuries. Variance shouldn’t be that favourable 2 straight seasons
 
i've always thought Patterson was the brains behind the defense. He orig was the DC before becoming the head man and they were salty on D even back then.
 
True. I would put the success of those Francione teams on his D. It's still his, bumpy trusted lieutenant gone and I think co-DCs are in, and don't like tat situation
 
I think the main thing with tOSU all season will be focus. It sounds trite to say, but it's proven true over and over that teams coming off a championship don't play with the same intensity as the year before. It can happen, but it hasn't very often. That said, the Buckeyes certainly can win the majority of their regular season games with less than their A game. I think the game in Blacksburg will tell us a lot about the team. At the current line, it is unbettable for me. Would need at least 17 to consider VT, and would like under DD for an tOSU bet. But, because it will be the only game on, I'm sure I will have a wager on it. Either chasing my losses from the weekend or hopefully playing with some profit

I think since the start of the BCS the pre-season #1 has only won the NC once or twice. Pretty poor record
 
With Baylor and TCU up against the same disadvantage this year in terms of entrance into the playoffs...have to think they'll be looking to score style points at every opportunity.

1 loss Baylor or TCU will be there ahead of the likely 2 loss ACC champ and 2 loss Pac 12 team
 
That is some excellent analysis by Connelly on the matchup in Charlotte (hope everyone realizes UNC/Scary is a neutral site game); my PR's have UNC as an ever so small favorite. A total toss-up game for the side.

I really like his analysis regarding the Under; I think the pace and style should dictate an under, but we all know the OBC and Fedora may not play it that way even though they probably should. It would be the Under or nothing for me on this game.


Whoa whoa that was my analysis. I just use his rankings of offense and defense as opposed to YPP

Well I guess it was his analysis too since I got all the numbers and unit rankings from him
 
Whoa whoa that was my analysis. I just use his rankings of offense and defense as opposed to YPP

Well I guess it was his analysis too since I got all the numbers and unit rankings from him

Good enough, I must have mis-interpreted the opening of your post; even better, excellent analysis by you!
 
Still around horses? I'm gonna throw a little something together on Bama/Wisky. I think I'm starting to like Bama
 
So looking at the Alabama -10.5 vs Wisconsin matchup. My PR calls for the line to be Bama -11 on a neutral after doing some readjusting for Wisconsin. My initial line was -14.5 but I dropped Wisky too much at RB and on the OL where they always have solid units. No doubt they will drop but I over adjusted

Coaching Matchup - Saban who knows every player who will be taking a snap versus Chryst who just met them 8 months ago. This is Wisconsin's 3rd coach in the past 4 years and that has to take an emotional toll. Also the crowd will at worst be 60-40 Bammers as they all have their money saved from the national title game they didn't have to travel to. Now the PRs do account for the coaching mismatch but I think it may be even bigger given that this is Chryst's first game at Wisconsin.

When Bama has the ball:
Well who the hell knows which QB Kiffin will pick but I was impressed with what he did with Sims last year. Per Bill C, Bama had the 4th ranked offense last year by the metrics, 11th rushing and 4th passing. Kiffin also does a great job of getting the ball in the hands of his playmakers which were Cooper and Yeldon last year. Both those guys are gone and though Drake/Henry will be plenty formidable at the RB position, there will be a significant dropoff in the #1 WR. Bama also loses their next 2 leading WR but do return a solid starting TE and add Mullaney from Oregon St. They have 5 WR back who had between 6 and 17 catches last year so there are glimpses of playing time. The Bama OL loses 3 starters including an All American but still returns 40 career starts and they always have a solid OL. Hard not to envision them being top 15 again. I do think Bama is going to really need to work to establish the run here but I also think Kiffin will find a way to have some success in the air. The good news is Saban won't let him fall in love with the pass. On defense Wisconsin will trot out a 3-4 again this year. They were 28th against the run last year and their 33 ranked DL loses both starting DE but returns 6 guys who had significant playing time LY. They will be a soild unit again but this will be one of the better running games they see all year. The LB crew loses 2 starters and 4 guys off the 2 deep. They only return 3 guys with significant experience which means this 4 LB crew will be pretty fresh. IMO, that's a pretty big advantage for Bama. The Bama RB may find some unfilled gaps and a new QB/WR crew may find some success in the intermediate passing game. Kiffin would be a fool to throw deep in this game as often as he did last season. A strong secondary loses a starting safety but returns everyone else including loads of experience. If I'm Wisconsin I go 8 in the box from the first snap and make Bama beat me with the 2 headed RB monster and short passes. Wisky has to challenge Bama to throw it deep and give them some man to man looks on the outside. The problem is I think Bama will have success with the running game and intermediate passing game.

When Wisky has the ball:
Wisconsin has 2 QBs returning that barely completed over 50% of their passes. They will have a learning curve this year on offense. Chryst is an offensive guy so there will be some learning to do despite Ludwig being back for a second year as OC. An AA RB and two AA OL depart which is a huge loss for any team though if there is any team in the country that can somewhat absorb these losses, it has to be Wisconsin. There will be a dropoff but it's one I initially overestimated I think. They return stud WR Erickson who had twice as many catches as the next leading receiver but the problem is Wisky loses their next 3 leading WRs. So you're going to face Bama with incredibly inconsistent QBs, one WR, and you lose 3 All-Americans on offense. Oh and you're not just going to play against Alabama you're going to play against the best defensive line in college football. This is a DL that was #1 in the country last year and returns their top 5 guys. They can actually improve on the pass rush and I think they will improve on that. Bama returns stud LB Ragland but loses 2 other starters...however they return 4 backups who played a good bit LY and the DL will make things easy on this crew. A mediocre secondary by Bama standards loses their top 2 players, both safeties but return 7 guys who played a bunch last season. Wisky doesn't have the QB play or the WR play to beat Bama's weakest unit. Wisky's strongest unit lost 3 All-Americans and will face off against the best DL in the country. I just don't see Wisky scoring much here. Saban is adjusting his system for spread offenses but these are the types of teams he usually feasts on. He can play his power against their power and Bama's power should win out.

So though I don't have a ton of value from a PR perspective I think the matchup favors Bama greatly here. Wisconsin can't expose Bama's weakness on defense and Wisconsin's biggest strength on offense is suffering a dropoff while going against the strongest defensive front in the country.

I also think the matchup favors an under here and that's mostly because the pace should be right for an under and I don't see Wisconsin getting past 17. That would mean Bama would have to score 37 which I think is unlikely with a new QB and WR crew. I think the clock keeps moving here and barring defensive/ST TDs I see a 30-13 type of game
 
The big ten network guys that go to every camp seemed to be down on the wisky OL. They indicated that they liked nebs OL more, which is surprising because I project the neb OL to be fairly avg (for us). Bama d is beat by running qbs and a passing game that takes the top off. Don't see either and now possibly a spotty OL.
 
The big ten network guys that go to every camp seemed to be down on the wisky OL. They indicated that they liked nebs OL more, which is surprising because I project the neb OL to be fairly avg (for us). Bama d is beat by running qbs and a passing game that takes the top off. Don't see either and now possibly a spotty OL.


OT to the post but I have been very unimpressed with BTN fall camp observations(overall...and local) for past several years...
 
I tend to agree. Usually, it's a lot of sunshine pumping, so I took particular notice of them actually being down on something.
 
The big ten network guys that go to every camp seemed to be down on the wisky OL. They indicated that they liked nebs OL more, which is surprising because I project the neb OL to be fairly avg (for us). Bama d is beat by running qbs and a passing game that takes the top off. Don't see either and now possibly a spotty OL.


Have you locked in Bama yet? I don't see it hitting 10
 
Still around horses? I'm gonna throw a little something together on Bama/Wisky. I think I'm starting to like Bama

Went out to dinner.

I like your write-up and the Under was brought to my attention a couple weeks ago by some dude that lives in Oregon. I have been tracking these teams in camp thus far including the same B10 Network observations Cub alludes to; I find the P12 network to be superior to the B10 network as far as analysis goes, though neither is great. Regardless, I think I prefer the under here; Alabama secondary is the weak link but as I'm sure you know, Saban takes a personal interest in this position group. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has played 3 SEC games the L2Y going 1-2 SU, including the opener last year they likely would have won save for in-game injuries to their DL. Just saying this is a team that won't lack confidence imo. Nevertheless, 'Bama is the only side I could play here but I'm pretty sure I like the under better (for the reasons you mention). I see no reason both defenses won't get the better of it thru the majority of the game and like you mention, the pace should favor an under.
 
Two I really like and have played....haven't seen any opinions, so throwing them out for any feedback I can get...

Boise State -10 1/2 over UW...........I think a lot o peeps will focus on Peterson and how there is no way he can't gameplan for a team he knows so well and how much this return to Boise may mean....the problem is that the UW simply does not have the jimmy and the joes to execute.....I think it takes a near perfect game from the UW to stay within 2 TDs

NMSU +37 over florida.........this looks so obvious...how does florida cover this number.

Thoughts?
 
having navigation problems at the site for some reason so might not make it this sunday.

I like Boise State as well.This line makes the game pretty low if it were played in Washington. Don't see it.
 
Of note for Wisconsin:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/badgers/badgers-battling-injuries-in-camp-b99558087z1-322117291.html

I'm not really sure what to expect from Alabama's offense this season. You'll see Kenyan Drake lining up all over the field, don't think it's a Henry #1, Drake #2 type deal. Before he broke his leg, Kiffin was putting the ball in his hands nearly as much as Amari's. He's obviously coming off that horrific injury, and has been slowed by a strained hamstring the last few days, but if he's ready to go, I'd expect him to get 15-20 touches a game. It's time for OJ Howard to live up to his potential, but who knows if he will finally step it up. He is only a junior I guess. OL will be spectacular at LT and C, solid at the other 3 spots. Can't afford an injury to Cam Robinson. If he goes down, our C is his backup, so shakeup all over the place. We have a lot of good players, but are pretty short on experience. Same for WR. Haven't heard anything out of practice to get me excited for Mullaney, but I have to imagine he'll emerge as a reliable player. Robert Foster may have finally had the light come on. Ardarius Stewart is a burner who will be the deep threat. Chris Black came in with a lot of hype (rated higher than classmate Amari Cooper), but has yet to make much of an impact. He's a starter now almost by default. Hope he can take advantage of it. There have been rave reviews about Calvin Ridley, basically comparing him to Julio and Amari in potential. Might not make much of an impact game 1, but could be a playmaker later on. At RB, we know the names Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake, but after them, there's not much. A lot of attrition at this position last couple of years. As a side note, watch out for Alvin Kamara at Tennessee. Left Alabama after constantly being on Saban's bad side, hearing he's gotten his head straight. He is an absolute baller. Anyway, we have a huge RB that's never taken #1 RB carries, his backup who has issues with fumbles and injuries, and a true freshman (who is a prototypical Saban RB, but still a TF). Bo Scarborough could be a special player, but he's suspended for the first 4 games and is rehabbing from ACL surgery. Health at this position is critical for Alabama this season. As for QB, Jake Coker remains the betting favorite to start the Wisconsin game, and most likely all season. I've heard from some decent places that he has been the most consistent of the QBs, but he has yet to end the competition (at least if Saban is to be believed). He has a foot injury he's dealing with, missing a few days of practice. I'm guessing we'll know more after the scrimmage this Saturday as we will undoubtedly turn to Wisconsin prep by the end of next week and we need to start making sure the starter is getting starter reps.

On defense, I'll try not to sound like a lunatic fan, but we're going to be good. Really good. The DL is the best and deepest we've had since Saban got here. Lot of talent at LB led by Ragland. Secondary took some lumps last year, especially against AU and tOSU, but a lot of guys got a lot of playing time. Moving Eddie Jackson to S, combined with Geno Smith (both converted CB) gives us a little more athleticism at S than we've had in the past, which should help against the spread formations. Maybe not so much against Wisconsin, Arkansas, LSU, and UGA though, but the front 7 makes up for that IMO. Also, it sounds like Minkah Fitzpatrick has really shone so far, and Saban has raved about his talent and work ethic multiple times. Starting a TF at CB is concerning, but we've done it before with Kareem Jackson and Dee Milliner (in nickel and dime).

On special teams, expect more inconsistency from the FG kicker Adam Griffith. He has some kind of vertebrae fracture that he has played through his whole career. Some days he's fine, others he can hardly walk. So, I foresee him making 3 45+ yarders one game, missing chip shots the next. JK Scott is likely the best punter in the country, so no real concerns there. Coverage units are usually pretty strong, but have been prone to breakdowns given our propensity to put a lot of really talented, but really inexperienced players on these units.

Specific to the first game, I think Schrute hit the nail on the head in that Wisconsin will be unable to take advantage of Alabama's weaknesses on defense, but after last year's debut against WVU, I'm not sure that we will be consistent enough drive to drive to put a ton of points up on a pretty good defense. If we cover the 10-11, I think it will be because Wisconsin doesn't score more than 14 points, which given Wisconsin's losses on offense and OL shuffling during fall camp, isn't much of a stretch. I'll know more once things start leaking from Saturday's scrimmage, but if we go into the first game with a QB tryout ongoing, I wouldn't expect a remarkable performance on that side of the ball. I haven't seen the number yet, but I endorse an under play if it's over 51. No play for me on the line
 
Total sits at 53 right now gps

Great write up and makes me like that under even more. Just not sure Saban lets Kiffin push it when he knows he can comfortably win this game even if it's by 10 points where Wisky never really threatens to do much offensively
 
Total sits at 53 right now gps

Great write up and makes me like that under even more. Just not sure Saban lets Kiffin push it when he knows he can comfortably win this game even if it's by 10 points where Wisky never really threatens to do much offensively

Definitely like under 53. I don't think Wisconsin gets to 21, highly doubt we get 35+. I see Alabama around 28-31, Wisconsin 13-17.
 
Here's a hypothetical:

You're a triple option offense. Your QB is solid and is returning. Would you rather replace your offensive line or would you rather replace your RBs/WRs
 
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