Sunday Night Round Table 08/16/15 - Futures & Week 1 Discussion

Minny offense is dog shit without Cobb

TCU game against Minny last year was just the second game in Cumbie and Meachem system

Gopher offense won't be able to sustain drives and their defense will get tired
 
I am a bit higher on UK than most....anyone see anything there?

Not shock the world, but undervalued.....
 
badet and boom got banged up a little. asked earlier about badet. and with barker coming on they'll be throwing late vs ull.
 
We discussed the possible over-adjustment on the OSU/VT line.

Keep an eye out for #6 Torrance Gibson. Recruiting heads should recognize him as a big name QB recruit out of St. Thomas Aquinas. 6'4 with elite athleticism and track speed. He's made the permanent switch to WR (a formality given the current QB depth chart at OSU) and has already impressed. Look to him to replace 2nd round draft pick Devin Smith as the deep threat. Would not surprise me if Corey Smith (expected starter, serving a suspension for the VT game) doesn't regain his starting role.

Also interesting is that once Jalin Marshall returns in game 2 you will potentially have 4 players on the field with legit QB experience who can throw the ball (JT/Cardale, Braxton, Marshall, Gibson). Trickeration should be aplenty.
 
phife said:
We discussed the possible over-adjustment on the OSU/VT line.

Keep an eye out for #6 Torrance Gibson. Recruiting heads should recognize him as a big name QB recruit out of St. Thomas Aquinas. 6'4 with elite athleticism and track speed. He's made the permanent switch to WR (a formality given the current QB depth chart at OSU) and has already impressed. Look to him to replace 2nd round draft pick Devin Smith as the deep threat. Would not surprise me if Corey Smith (expected starter, serving a suspension for the VT game) doesn't regain his starting role.

Also interesting is that once Jalin Marshall returns in game 2 you will potentially have 4 players on the field with legit QB experience who can throw the ball (JT/Cardale, Braxton, Marshall, Gibson). Trickeration should be aplenty.
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I know that the VT defense is solid, and proven against Urb after last year ... but the problem I really have with VT is figuring out how they are going to score.
 
clowncar said:
I know that the VT defense is solid, and proven against Urb after last year ... but the problem I really have with VT is figuring out how they are going to score.
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VT threw a 'bear' look at OSU last year which Urban and Herman by their own admission said they were totally unprepared for and did a shit job of adjusting to.

OSU went back to the drawing board, and from that point on every other team who gave them the same look got burned.

Regardless, VT definitely has talent on the defensive side of the ball Will be interesting to see how it plays out this year.

I think the moral of my story was that you're basically getting 4 pts for Bosa. Offensive personnel will be fine.

Oh, and Brewster put up the performance of his lifetime last year in the 'shoe. I didn't see him play anywhere near that level for the rest of the season.
 
phife said:
VT threw a 'bear' look at OSU last year which Urban and Herman by their own admission said they were totally unprepared for and did a shit job of adjusting to.

OSU went back to the drawing board, and from that point on every other team who gave them the same look got burned.

Regardless, VT definitely has talent on the defensive side of the ball Will be interesting to see how it plays out this year.

I think the moral of my story was that you're basically getting 4 pts for Bosa. Offensive personnel will be fine.

Oh, and Brewster put up the performance of his lifetime last year in the 'shoe. I didn't see him play anywhere near that level for the rest of the season.
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Agreed on both points. The 4.5 pt move or so we saw after the suspensions was excessive. Also, in regards to Brewer... I liked him prior to last year but he just seemed to regress. Logan Thomas was throwing in the nfl ..... at some point the problem at VT is scheme and not QB.
 
With VT having very strong DB's .,,, might the game turn into a grinder of sorts? VT is going to struggle to move it .. Urb might prefer running to passing given the inexperience on the outside and the stud at RB ... could be a slow game .. should we be glancing under the total here?
 
Laying DD and looking at an under isn't my normal path to losing but it might be a more efficient one.
 
phife said:
VT threw a 'bear' look at OSU last year which Urban and Herman by their own admission said they were totally unprepared for and did a shit job of adjusting to.

OSU went back to the drawing board, and from that point on every other team who gave them the same look got burned.

Regardless, VT definitely has talent on the defensive side of the ball Will be interesting to see how it plays out this year.

I think the moral of my story was that you're basically getting 4 pts for Bosa. Offensive personnel will be fine.

Oh, and Brewster put up the performance of his lifetime last year in the 'shoe. I didn't see him play anywhere near that level for the rest of the season.
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Recently watched back the VT/OSU game from last year. OSU was so reliant on the inside zone run coming into that game. VT stayed in their bear/double eagle and in cover zero all game, and OSU couldn't consistently punish them for it. However, when Barrett kept on carries and got outside the tackles, he had some success. OSU will be much more prepared to execute the speed option/outside runs this time around.

Also to expand on your Torrance Gibson point ... VT will be in cover zero again. Assuming they put Fuller on Mike Thomas, if TG can take the top off the defense, VT may be playing from behind early. Not the situation they want Brewer in.
 
clowncar said:
With VT having very strong DB's .,,, might the game turn into a grinder of sorts? VT is going to struggle to move it .. Urb might prefer running to passing given the inexperience on the outside and the stud at RB ... could be a slow game .. should we be glancing under the total here?
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This is where OSU's QB choice becomes interesting. Two ways you go at a bear are 1) speed option, 2) over the top. JT going to be more effective at the former, Cardale at the latter.

Obviously both are talented enough to effectuate either strategy, but the choice at starter may reflect the game plan emphasis.
 
Anyone with a read on Temple-PSU?

I was a Temple lean before the news that Anderson was cleared to play. With Anderson.... they're basically returning 20 starters and playing a PSU team at home that is (in my view) overvalued by virtue of Hackenberg.
 
ped st is deep at wr this year. that's great if you're qb can get past the first read. oline is supposed to be better but I doubt they'll run on anyone eventhough akeel lynch is a beast.

zettel should've gone to nfl. he's amazing. unblockable at times. owls will struggle with him. de, lb I don't see anyone special but more athletic than in the last couple years. secondary will be good but not great.

bonus their k is so fat he makes janikowski look like kate moss
 
The problem for Temple is obviously going to be scoring (I have an over ticket). They managed just 248 and a whopping 8 FD on PSU last year and the Lions are more loaded on that ball than they were a year ago. PSU oline is where the money meets the hand this year in regards to PSU and meeting any expectations. They were abysmal last year in generating any push in a run game and not that great in pass protection either. They played quite a few Frosh at WR last year who should be better and had another great recruiting class. Year two of Franklin so have to think they have improvement offensively on that factor alone almost .. and with how bad they were last year. QBR for that game Temple QB 12.2, PSU QB 12.9. Amazing.
 
I will go ahead and say it ... I think Penn State will finish with the best defensive numbers in the conference.
 
One other thing .. have a feeling the crowd is fifty-fifty at that game .. I wouldn't give Temple much of a hfa based on fan base attendance for that game. Less than a three hour drive for those Lion fans and they probably have a bunch of alumni in that area anyway. For the opener ... just think you see a big turnout for PSU
 
ped st is deep at wr this year. that's great if you're qb can get past the first read. oline is supposed to be better but I doubt they'll run on anyone eventhough akeel lynch is a beast.

zettel should've gone to nfl. he's amazing. unblockable at times. owls will struggle with him. de, lb I don't see anyone special but more athletic than in the last couple years. secondary will be good but not great.

bonus their k is so fat he makes janikowski look like kate moss
 
In regards to Minnesota, if you wanted to back the dog there, wouldn't you just go under? May just be me, but hard to envision a 35-24 kind of game.
 
I don't know if it's cause we're still three weeks out, or if I just think Week 1 capping is nothing more than a guessing game, but having a tough time getting myself to look over this card. Only thing that really jumps out to me at this point is Marshall for the sole reason I made it much much higher.
 
lindetrain said:
I don't know if it's cause we're still three weeks out, or if I just think Week 1 capping is nothing more than a guessing game, but having a tough time getting myself to look over this card. Only thing that really jumps out to me at this point is Marshall for the sole reason I made it much much higher.
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I feel spoiled and I am worried I struggle in the coming weeks taking the normal tiny edges. I am tired of looking at this card, and tired of looking at all the teams and still know very little about quite a few teams. I am behind on injury news too because I am locked in so early on so much and so busy. I don't twitter and that is where most of the good updates are coming from now. Huge disadvantage for me .. gonna have to give in and do it.

I have Marshall but I actually think Purdue competes for some reason.
 
This thread is getting my juices flowing though .. some pretty solid posts and posters in here .. including some quality new blood. Think we have potential to really help one another this season.
 
That's code for I am going to bed but everyone should keep posting ... it will get read and responded to by others.

Pleasantly surprised by quality even if disappointed by turnout. Imagine next week will be better.
 
I had some thoughts on the U for Horses earlier and would like to talk about that team more later too .. so I will be back for that.
 
I can tell you all definitively, however, that Duke will cover every number against Tulane...including the +20.5 ticket I'm holding. That teamed owned me despite massive CLV against them on a few occasions last year and I won't be surprised when it continues this year.
 
lindetrain said:
I can tell you all definitively, however, that Duke will cover every number against Tulane...including the +20.5 ticket I'm holding. That teamed owned me despite massive CLV against them on a few occasions last year and I won't be surprised when it continues this year.
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9-4 and were outgained last year. Luckboxes ..... credit to the coach ... but eventually they are going to poop out that horseshoe
 
it's really not all luck though. it's far superior coaching and special teams. Against better teams, Duke goes for it on 4th down, which gives them a pretty big adv against most of these idiots.
 
rut roh, how dare you suggest that 4 chances to gain 10 yards yield more positive results than 3 chances plus change of field position, this might be mind blowing

Cutcliffe isn't an idiot, and I like people who aren't idiots typically
 
i bet against him a few times and still found myself rooting for duke, b/c he just says fuck it, let's go for it.
 
Wouldn't say I root for them at all but the approach is smart, progressive and can help to negate a talent differential. Probably not the easiest thing to handicap, it needs to be accounted for.
 
clowncar said:
In regards to TCU .. there are a lot of factors in play that are hard to guage.

1. TCU snubbed in favor of a BigTen school so they may want to prove a point beyond just the normal
2. They are really good friends so that could play into not running it up if the opportunity appears
http://www.foxsports.com/north/story/close-friends-kill-patterson-meet-when-gophers-visit-tcu-091014

3. TCU statistically and otherwise dominated the game last year more than the final score would indicate. 427-268 last year and won by 30-7 final. It was TCU's season low scoring output.
4. TCU underachieved on the road last year. I know from personal experience that Patterson has struggled covering as road chalk, 3-8 last 11. The road woes are the biggest concern for TCU money.
5. While TCU will be really good defensively eventually this year, I am not sure that is the case week 1 out of the gate.
6. They played last year so it isn't like the two teams are unfamiliar with eachother and what they do. This is a big advantage for dogs in conference play and it could apply here to a lesser degree.
7. There is a huge disparity between QB's. Not just that Boykin is much better than Leidner but he is a much better fit in the TCU offense than Leidner is in the Minnesota offense.
8. TCU offense ended the year firing on all cylinders and with all back, I have to think they outperform last years output against Minnesota.
9. Figuring out who controls pace is a factor. Minnesota one of the fifteen slowest paced teams last year, TCU one of the 30 fastest paced teams last year.

It is a hard game to figure out.
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Sorry to add to thread so late but obviously I will be interested in TCU in many a way this year but this game I will prolly leave alone and this is a big part. There are reasons pro/con both ways but this is the simple way for me to prolly stay away.
 
twinkie13 said:
maybe

I think Arky is gonna be a problem for the SEC.....Know ZERO about UTEP at this point.
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Very sharp guy I know, who is also a local bookie(Domer and MSU ties fwiw) LOVES this team this year. He books and does personal plays and does very well.
 
clowncar said:
This thread is getting my juices flowing though .. some pretty solid posts and posters in here .. including some quality new blood. Think we have potential to really help one another this season.
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Very impressed with new blood and content in here. And this is without some great minds making it tonight it looks like.
 
clowncar said:
I had some thoughts on the U for Horses earlier and would like to talk about that team more later too .. so I will be back for that.
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Here we we go.. On the iPad so may be disjointed a little. While the noise emananting form coral gables regarding team unity is similar to years past, I believe this is the first year where Golden has a proliferation of "his" guys. Kaaya has become the lead dog here. Sounds like there was a splintered locker rooms and a lot of "hero" ball especially on the defensive side. AL has mentioned that there were guys more worried about playing for thr NFL and not respecting their assignments.

That being said, the schedule blows for the canes this year. I count only 2 definite wins on the schedule. Outside of the FSU and Clemson, the rest of the ACC slate is a tossup. I can see them going 9-2 or 5-7 and everything in between.

This is team is a complete 180 from recent canes teams. This should be the best defense golden has had in his time here.

Quick thoughts:

best depth esp on defense golden has had.

DL is deep but questions abound at DT. Love the return of Muhammad and need either chad thomas or McCord to step up their game.

RapheL Kirby has emerged at MLB

love be the secondary this year especially the safety poistion


Questions abound on offense outside of QB.

Very ry very concerned about the ol. Theynhave rotated a number of guys during summer camp. And really only Linder and maybe isadora have locked in spots.

unproven talent is the name of the game at the skill positions.

THE RETURN or lack of from Stacy coley could make or break this offense. Not a ton of catches return at the WR spot. Lacked confidence last year. And couldn't catch the ball in practice.

Pat this point, TE is a 3 headed monster. No one has separated themselves.


I think ink rb should be fine and have been hearing good things about the frosh Walton.


My concerns are all the unproven guys on offense especially the line and the defensive scheme. Golden has a fierce loyalty to donofrio. The party line is that the sheme wasn't the problem, rather the lack of player belief in it. While I think the players finally have the best team unity in years and seem to care about one another, this team is probably a year away. Will golden be around to see it?


Tiring of of typing and will be happy to answer any questions on the team that anyone has
 
clowncar said:
With VT having very strong DB's .,,, might the game turn into a grinder of sorts? VT is going to struggle to move it .. Urb might prefer running to passing given the inexperience on the outside and the stud at RB ... could be a slow game .. should we be glancing under the total here?
Click to expand...

My first thought would be no. Then I'm kind've thinking back to the OSU game at PSU last year where the offense played ultra conservative in what I think was a way to deal with the crowd. Should be a similar environment in Blacksburg.

But you're going to have to hope that Meyer isn't incentivized by losing to VT last year and isn't eager to show off all his new weapons in primetime after having an entire summer to prepare.

Here's another thing to consider for all OSU games really. OSU jumps out to a lead and they put in the "backup" qb. They're going to be obligated to get that kid legit reps. I don't see them handing the ball off 30 times in a row. They will throw and they will score. Might even want to get Braxton some pass attempts in live action to see how the arm looks and to give future opponents something to think about.

I'm generally not so great with unders but my only under play here would be on the VT team total. At 53 if I had to play it, it would be over.
 
I think the main thing with tOSU all season will be focus. It sounds trite to say, but it's proven true over and over that teams coming off a championship don't play with the same intensity as the year before. It can happen, but it hasn't very often. That said, the Buckeyes certainly can win the majority of their regular season games with less than their A game. I think the game in Blacksburg will tell us a lot about the team. At the current line, it is unbettable for me. Would need at least 17 to consider VT, and would like under DD for an tOSU bet. But, because it will be the only game on, I'm sure I will have a wager on it. Either chasing my losses from the weekend or hopefully playing with some profit
 
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