SUNDAY MORNING COFFEE--Week 9 Line Predictions (LINES ARE OUT!!)

RJ Esq

Prick Since 1974
301 clemson -4
302 virginia tech

303 utep
304 tulsa -12

305 northern illinois
306 iowa -19

307 buffalo
308 boston college -34

309 wake forest -12
310 north carolina

311 notre dame -6
312 navy

313 north carolina state
314 virginia -2

315 florida state -5
316 maryland

317 syracuse
318 cincinnati -4

319 northwestern
320 michigan -40

321 illinois
322 wisconsin -25

323 michigan state -4
324 indiana

325 bowling green -10
326 temple

327 vanderbilt -13
328 duke

329 byu -14
330 air force

331 ball state -2
332 miami ohio

333 iowa state
334 kansas state -3

335 texas -16
336 texas tech

337 army
338 tulane -3

339 texas am -5
340 baylor

341 penn state
342 purdue pk

343 minnesota
344 ohio state -25

345 eastern michigan
346 western michigan -11

347 auburn -19
348 mississippi

349 tennessee -5
350 south carolina

351 georgia
352 florida -22

353 usc -8
354 oregon state

355 arizona state
356 washington -2

357 ohio
358 kent state -5

359 unlv
360 utah -23

361 new mexico state
362 nevada -17

363 memphis
364 marshall -14

365 new mexico
366 colorado state -6

367 louisiana tech
368 san jose state -13

369 kentucky -5
370 mississippi state

371 central florida
372 houston -16

373 akron -6
374 toledo

375 miami florida
376 georgia tech -5

377 oklahoma
378 missouri -1

379 colorado
380 kansas -7

381 nebraska -6
382 oklahoma state

383 washington state
384 ucla -3

385 wyoming
386 tcu -10

387 east carolina
388 so mississippi -7

389 idaho
390 hawaii -21

391 florida international
392 alabama -23

393 north texas
394 troy -13

395 arkansas state -8
396 florida atlantic

397 mid tennessee state
398 ul - lafayette -1

399 ul - monroe
400 arkansas -29

427 connecticut
428 rutgers -21
 
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With your lines...here is what I like this week at these stages.

Spartans -4

Navy +6

CFU +16

GT -5

UGA +22

BAYLOR +5

VT +4

UTEP +12
 
Only reflection I can really mention is that out of all the games yesterday, only 5 or so dogs actually won straight up...a LOT of faves squeaked out wins yesterday, and failed to cover. It was a good vegas day, I guess.
 
no more early lines for me the rest of the year. i think its evident now that there is rarely any value in early lines at this time of year and if anything value is shifting towards dogs in conference games after dumb bettors pound the favorite all week. iw ill still be involved in conversation and if a play or 2 pops out i will play but after the last 2 weeks this is what i think will be best for eveyone to do wait to wednesday or so to lock shit in
 
I think your ND line is low based on the Navy QB..

Can FSU still be laying road chalk right now??

I don't think Mich will sniff 40 based on the fact that they haven't scored much in conference..

If IU is a dog to MSU, I would look at that...they got beat up yesterday though, esp at RB...Thigpen didn't look too good when he came off..

That Texas line looks high for a starter..

USC still gets silly action so I see DD there for sure...

If Kent St is under a TD vs Ohio...that would warrant an immediate play IMO
 
If i can get uga at +22 ill take it.. theyll lose but by 2 td's
 
Everyone should note that these are not the lines that I think the books will post...

...they are the lines as I think they should be based upon how the teams should fare against each other with HFA taken into consideration.

There are always lines that are off, even with me. That Texas line and Florida lines seem high but, depending on the line the books give us, they should still be good plays.

I'm loving Florida and Texas this week. Hopefully we will get good lines.
 
Some early lines are out at Pinny and all totals are up.

Texas opened at around -11'. Florida at -13'
 
TroyStacks said:
no more early lines for me the rest of the year. i think its evident now that there is rarely any value in early lines at this time of year and if anything value is shifting towards dogs in conference games after dumb bettors pound the favorite all week. iw ill still be involved in conversation and if a play or 2 pops out i will play but after the last 2 weeks this is what i think will be best for eveyone to do wait to wednesday or so to lock shit in

I agree.
beer.gif
Patience and caution is the rule of the day now.

I like Navy if they are catching over a TD. I do not like them if they are catching less. However, I did predict in preseason that this game would be my "Upset of the Year" and I still see that possibility.
 
rjurewitz said:
Some early lines are out at Pinny and all totals are up.

Texas opened at around -11'. Florida at -13'

Yea 22 was extremly high.. suprised to see ur number showing that :shake:
 
I'm gonna wait and see If i can get vtech over a TD....I think Stacks is right though, at this time of year I usually wait.
 
Va Tech +6 -111

Juice is going the other way.

I agree on the time of year. Tread carefully on rogue lines. It's not like the beginning part of year where you get big time rogue lines and have huge shopping lists early.

Have to wait for bowl season for that.
 
I wouldnt play any road favorites .. or be very cautious

Cant wait to see what idiot says well florida is playin in the swamp they should kill uga , happens at least 5 times a year
 
juice is going other way on VT, but I do believe it will go back the other way after all the spiller/davis love from last night.

anyone on Mizzou? I think that is my play of the week.
 
HUNTDOG said:
navy's starting qb is out for year though right?

HUNT, I want to find that info out and would appreciate it if someone could find it for us. However, Navy has a couple of good and experienced back-ups that I think will fill in nicely. Navy has also had two weeks of practice preparing for Notre Dame and whoever the QB will be, he has repeated snaps in this time. This game will be played on a neutral field for both teams -- Baltimore (though certainly closer to Navy's fans I believe.)
 
HUNTDOG said:
juice is going other way on VT, but I do believe it will go back the other way after all the spiller/davis love from last night.

anyone on Mizzou? I think that is my play of the week.

If Mizzou is a home dog I will be on them. If not, I will not play it. Oklahoma's defense is back to old form, but offense will struggle.
 
Im really close to taking tenn .. and just payin the juice . This is a mismatch in talent in my books. It will be a classic sec game though, back and forth but i think tenn wins by 7 near the end of the game..Just too many skilled weapons on offense
 
I agree on navy den...If ND is another DD fav on the road that is ridiculous...especially against a team that can run.

Mizzou is -3 at pinny I believe den.
 
I feel the opposite on that game abcs, I can never figure out what tenny team will show up.
 
abcs--SMODOD said:
Hunt do you have aim or msn?>

Yes, he does. You want me to tell you what it is?

On second thought, I may need to leave that up to HUNT.
smoke.gif
 
Quick Review of ATS Stats:

Good ATS Teams (No more than 2 ATS losses, bold is perfect)

CMU
Clemson
Wake Forest
Pitt
Rutgers
Syracuse
USF
WVU
Ohio St
Wisky
Mizzou
Texas
Nebraska
OU
A&M
ECU
Tulsa
Akron
Buffalo
Kent St
BYU
Colorado St
Wyoming
ASU
Cal
Washington
Washington St
MTSU
Hawaii
Idaho
Nevada

Bad ATS Teams (No more than 2 ATS wins, bold is perfectly bad)

UNC
Miami
Maryland
GTech
NC State
UConn
Iowa
Northwestern
Colorado
Iowa St
Marshall
Memphis
UAB
UCF
USM
Army
Notre Dame
Bowling Green
Miami OH
NIU
Toledo
SDSU
UNLV
Arizona
Stanford
USC
Arkansas
Georgia
Kentucky
FAU
UNT
Troy
Fresno St
La Tech
 
Texas -10 would be good. See how the line moves here.

Opened at 11.5 and went down to 10.5. See what happens. Think there will be alot of money on the home dog.
 
Tenn line will be 7 at kickoff.. Damn i missed out
Also usc and clemson line seem to be dropping so be patient fellas
 
haha I got Tennessee -3 at -120, lets see that line keep on rising...

Only game that stands out to me is Buffalo +37. I don't remember the last time that BC won by 37 points, even against 1-AA teams. Also think that Michigan and LLoyd Carr probably won't cover the 35 point spread against Northwestern.
 
Also like Buff and NW. Was gonna jump on NW at 36 but it dropped back to 35 before I could catch it. Will probably lock it when it goes to 35.5 so I have the extra half just in case it ends up 42-7 or something like that. Michigan will roll, but 5 TD margin is asking a lot, especially with coach Carr at the helm.
 
Current Early Leans

SMISS - surprised this one is going down
UCLA ML - think it won't be +110 for long
RUTGERS - dont think it will go down so have to decide on this one
BGSU - if it goes back under 20
BUFF once it goes back over 37
NW - once it goes back over 35
(already on Kentucky PK)
BYU - if it keeps dropping
 
I'm eyeing the Southern Mississippi game. 5 is one of those numbers I never know what to do with. I feel like if it was SMiss -6, I could comfortably make a play on them...but the -5 throws me off. Lets us watch some line movement, though...if it gets down, I'll almost definitely get it...if it goes up, I didn't really care about 5 pts anyway..

You and Stacks both like BYU. I like BYU the team, but can they really lay a TD+ on the road? Air Force isn't fantastic, but they arne't bad, either. Most of my knowledge on the MWC, though, comes solely from reading game writeups and box scores, so maybe you guys can enlighten me...
 
I like ECU this year, i am not sure how they are away from home but they are decent.. Uk is now -2.5 btw
 
Narrowing down my list a bit actually and both SMISS and PSU are off my list now (not sure if I even mentioned PSU above). ECU seems to find a way to cover so don't want to take a chance as SMISS will probably win something like 20-16.

Locked in MARSHALL -5.5 even though they are pretty bad as they are at home and should have a field day running the ball against that sieve like Memphis rush defense. Don't like laying that many with a bad team but I think Memphis will help me out here with a few bonehead turnovers and penalties at inopportune times.

Still waiting to lock Buff, NW, BGSU. May be the only one who is considering the Noles, but really like how that line is dropping. Would love 3 at 120 or less in that one. Same goes for the Clemson line. Don't see a ton else I like outside of Rutgers and maybe UCLA just b/c of the +110 on the ML at home in that one. Everything else is a little too close to call for me, so I doubt I will have more than 7 plays at the most this week.
 
Confirmed Plays So Far..

KENTUCKY PK
MARSHALL -5.5
BGSU -19.5 (bought 1/2 -115)
RUTGERS -16.5 (bought 1 - 120)

This card is definitely not gonna be for the faint of heart as I think the only team on the entire card that will be recognized by the general public is Rutgers, and even that might be a stretch. My niche is the under the radar games, so I am gonna back to my bread and butter and not gonna sweat the fact I will have to catch the score updates for almost all of these online using the good ol refresh button come Saturday.
 
Thinking about selling 1/2 on the KU line to take it to -2.5 so I can get it at around 100 instead of the 108 for -2. What do you guys think about this one? I know CU is due for a win somewhere along the line, but just don't see how their offense will be able to take advantage of the KU lack of D. Also don't see how CU will be able to score enough to stay within a FG as KU should be good for at least 17 here I would think whereas I don't see CU getting more than 13 or 14 at the most.
 
Indiana is another one I am considering. Can get em now at +8.5 114. Which is the better risk guys? KU -2.5 or Ind +8.5? Not gonna try both but figure I would give one of these two a shot, just not sure which right now.

Thanks
CB
 
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