JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
If you have them done, post them here...
Lets get ready for releases in 7 hrs or so.
Lets get ready for releases in 7 hrs or so.
Sorry, had a party last night. I'll post the full card in a sec.
some thoughts on a few games
West Virginia @ South Florida
Predicted Spread: USF +5.5
This will be a very hard game to figure. Both teams look very much for real and both look to be very good. In this situation, I would always look at a home dog, but WVU looks scary.
California @ Oregon
Predicted Spread: Oregon -4.5
Very very even teams here, there is no way I could imagine taking Cal at anything less than 4.5. Cal has no advantages in this game and it is played at a Gameday rowdy autzen. This is a budding rivary and a big revenge game for the Ducks. Anything less than laying 4.5 is terrific value.
Alabama @ Florida State (Jax)
Predicted Spread: Alabama -4
Florida State is a pretty shitty team. Alabama is good. If they lay a small number, Tide should be golden.
Mississippi State @ South Carolina
Predicted Spread: USC -14
I do not have much of an opinion on the side here, but will be all over the under.
more later
Perfect ATS Teams (No Losses)
Cincinnati
Rutgers
USF
WVU
Purdue
Kansas
Kansas St
Mizzou
OU
UCF
UTEP
Oregon
Kentucky
Troy
La Tech
Teams to Fade (No ATS Wins)
Maryland
NC State
UNC
L-ville
Minnesota
Northwestern
Marshall
Rice
Tulane
Navy
Notre Dame
WMU
Arizona
Arkansas
Boise St
NM State
Couldn't this be looked at the opposite way? Fade the teams that are perfect ATS because they'll be getting more and more credit from bookmakers and bettors? And just the opposite for the teams doing crap against the spread.
Also . you guys all believe Oregon gives points against Cal? I was thinking somewhere between a pick'em with a slight advantage to Cal from the books.. maybe Oregon +2.5 or so...
I think it's a pretty even game, so whoever gets points is probably the better play... i do just slightly prefer cal over the ducks though, if you put a gun to my head.
that cokmmment is just what makes money for the books....oregon is the play here no matter what
No, you ride the good ATS teams and you fade the bad ATS teams. It's a proven way to make money if you can identify those teams.
However, you're also right. The books aren't dumb and they will keep giving inflated numbers to these teams until eventually they will lose (or win), but in the long run, these teams will win/lose ATS despite a few stumbles against impossible lines.
Looking at these spots:
Cincy with a lookahead spot against SDSU (Rutgers on deck)
Rutgers with a non-conf in a lookahead spot against Maryland (Cincy on deck)
Syracuse with a let down and lookahead spot at Miami OH (WVU on deck)
Iowa in a sanwich spot hosting Indiana (PSU on deck, however, it is homecoming)
Penn State in a sandwich spot at Illinois (Iowa on deck)
Texas with revenge game against Kansas St (however, OU is on deck)
Texas A&M with sandwich game against Baylor (Okie Lite on deck)
Houston with lookahead spot against ECU (Bama on deck)
Tulane with LSU in a local "rivalry"
LSU with lookahead against Tulane (Florida on deck)
UCF with lookahead spot against ULL (ECU on deck)
SMU with revenge game against UTEP and bye week following week
Kent St with revenge game against Ohio
AFA with revenge and rivalry game against Navy
UNLV with rivalry and revenge game against Nevada
Utah in a rivalry game but lookahead spot against Utah St (L-ville on deck)
ASU with sandwich game against Stanford
Arkansas with possible let down spot against North Texas
Georgia with a sandwich spot against Ole Miss
Ole Miss with a revenge game against Georgia
Kentucky wiht sandwich game against FAU
LSU with a sandwich game against Tulane
Texas with revenge game against Kansas St (however, OU is on deck)