SUNDAY MORNING COFFEE--Week 1 Review and Week 2 Line Predictions

ricky..nice thoughts,on the flip side you have to wonder where CSU's head is after the barn burner with COlorado.
 
A few SC-UGA notes.....(little long)..


I was expecting a different performance from the Cocks and well they looked like any other ordinary SC team. After going up 14-0 early in the 1st, they looked slow on defense, they over pursued constantly, the missed tackles was worse than watching 8yrs olds play for the first time, and the pass defense had holes in it. This is going back to knowing the situation. "Spurrier said on the third-and-22 play that ULL gained about 20 yards to the USC 2, one of USC’s DB’s thought it was 3rd-and-10 and wasn’t where he was supposed to be." Now granted, the offense is hard to defend and doubt they prepared much all summer to stop this type of option fake but giving up 300yards rushing to ULL is terrible, any way that you slice it and inexcusable in my mind. The freshmen WR's had little to no impact on the game and they just might not be ready. That means that outside of McKinnley, some one needs to step up and well they just have not yet.

I want to note that USC in openers, 60% of the time, they play UGA tough despite bad opening games.

2002: beat New Mexico 34-24, lose to UGA 13-7
2003: beat ULL 14-7, lose to UGA 31-7
2004: beat Vandy 31-6, lose to UGA 20-16
2005: beat UCF 24-15, lose to UGA 17-15
2006: beat Miss St 15-0, lose to UGA 18-0

Since 1992, SC has won 4 of the 15 games vs. UGA.

I give UGA credit. There was not much good news coming out of camp in the Summer but they showed up and looked like a typical UGA team that could win the east. I like Moreno a lot and took notice to his days in HS here in Jersey. If SC goes to Athens with the same effort they displayed last night, it will look much like the 31-7 beat down of 2003. Staford has a quick release and an absolute gun for an arm. OSU was able to get no pass rush vs. them. The play calling allowed the young OL to get confidence since they did not ask them to do much early. They played very fast on defense. They are a little undersized at DE, the LB's are very quick and the secondary looked good.

Where do I stand this week? I just don't know. I hate how last night went because I am not sitting where I thought I would be. The kids need to be coached up this week. The effort will certainly be there next week, it usually always is vs. UGA, and this is probably the biggest game in the Spurrier era so far. The good thing for SC is that on the road under Spurrier they have played pretty good, (6-3 SU, 8-1 ATS) UGA looked better than expected, SC looked worse than expected. I think at this point, UGA -6 has to be close to the line based on the names of the two programs and the performances from WK1.


 
Al Borges Must Improve

by auburn91 Sun Sep 02, 2007 at 03:03:53 PM EDT

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By Jay Coulter
jccoulter@gmail.com
Most everyone played their part Saturday night on the Plains. The Auburn fans were in late season mode – loud and ready to go; the band sported new uniforms and Jordan-Hare Stadium never looked or sounded better. The Auburn defense looked downright nasty at times handling a talented Kansas State quarterback. Everybody came to the dance ready to party.
Unfortunately, offensive coordinator Al Borges left his dancing shoes at home.
Rarely do you get a complete read on a team in preseason – see Michigan and Notre Dame. As for Auburn, things went pretty much as scripted. Concerns about a young offensive line were confirmed. The Tigers did indeed miss Brad Lester, although Ben Tate and Carl Stewart were adequate work horses in the backfield.
Auburn’s defense used a bend but don’t break philosophy in the first half and then came out in the second half playing like a unit that may go down as one of Auburn’s best ever. If there’s a better defensive end in the country than Quentin Groves, show me, please.
And how about Wes Byrum? Have you ever seen a more confident freshman take control of a game when he was needed most? His kicks were strong and confident.
There were plenty of positives to go around Saturday night at Pat Dye Field.
While Alabama and Florida were playing exhibition games, Tommy Tuberville’s group jumped right into the 2007 season head first. While it wasn’t pretty, you can count on it paying dividends down the road.
For all the good things that happened Saturday night, they will be overshadowed by the play of a shaky offense and in particular, the unexplainable play calling by Borges. It was a game plan better suited to beat Tennessee Tech than a team from the Big 12.
For 55 minutes Auburn played like a team conflicted. Do we try to gut it out or throw short slant passes until we get lucky? Borges used quarterback Brandon Cox’s injury last year as an excuse for not opening up the offense. Against Kansas State his philosophy nearly got his team beat and his quarterback killed.
Brandon Cox was clearly not hitting on all cylinders. But you can’t lay all the blame on him. We knew the "freshmen side" of the offensive line would struggle – and they did. Lee Ziemba and Mike Berry were uneven as expected.
Giving up five sacks in a game is a major concern. For a team that gave up 35 sacks last season, you have to wonder whether Cox will survive the year. Back-up quarterback Blake Field needs to be mentally and physically prepared because his time is coming.
What do we take away from the win over Kansas State? For starters, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has to be pleased with the play of his unit. After starting slow, they turned it on. They will only get better. Auburn’s defense has the talent to beat every team on its schedule.
The offense is a different story.
It’s hard to imagine this group going to Florida, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia and being productive enough to win. True – it’s early. But this offense has got some serious problems to overcome. Hopefully Ziemba and Berry will settle down and even out as the year goes on. They both are incredible talents. Wideouts Preschae Rodriguez, Robert Dunn and Rod Smith look hopeful. Brandon Cox looked sharp in leading Auburn down the field in the fourth quarter.
Al Borges is now three years removed from that magical 2004 campaign. It’s time for him to bring back the creativity. In other words, it’s put up or shut up time for Borges and his coaches. Yes, they are young in some spots; but his coaches owe these guys a chance to win every week.
Last night he didn’t give them that chance – they made it happen on their own. That’s not good enough.
 
<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD class=storytitle colSpan=3>Toney Baker Suffers Season-Ending Knee Injury </TD></TR><TR><TD class=primaryimage vAlign=top>
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Toney Baker
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Toney Baker suffered a season-ended knee injury during the fourth quarter of Saturday's season opener against Central Florida.
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NC State junior tailback Toney Baker suffered a season-ending knee injury during the fourth quarter of Saturday's season opener against Central Florida. During arthroscopic surgery on Sunday morning, Dr. Michael Fajgenbaum discovered cartilage damage. Baker will undergo reconstructive surgery at a later date. The Wolfpack's leading rusher last season, Baker has rushed for 1,272 yards in his career. He has played in 24 career games with a dozen starts, including Saturday's contest, and was named to the preseason 'watch' list for the 2007 Doak Walker Award last week. Baker has not taken a redshirt season and should be eligible for a medical redshirt. "This is a tough situation for Toney and for our football team," said first-year head coach Tom O'Brien. "We wish him the best and will support him through his rehabilitation period."

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<table id="post452297" class="tborder" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr valign="top"><td class="alt1" id="td_post_452297" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(209, 209, 225);">303 Oregon St -4
304 Cincy +8.5


I think this line will be north of 7. There has been a lot of big east hype lately even though if you look hard enough, depthwise they are not near the other conferences, especially the Pac-10. Look at what happened between Syracuse and Washington. This should be part II.

305 MTSU
306 L-ville -25 -30

307 Navy
308 Rutgers -19 -13

309 WVU -24
310 Marshall +27.5

311 Nevada
312 NW -2.5 -10

313 Nebraska -7
314 Wake Forest +6

This probably will be about right. Nebraska will be able to put up a lot of points in this one, as much or more than BC did. If their defense plays well, they should roll here.

315 Miami Fl
316 OU -9.5 -10

Line looks right on. Very difficult to cap.

317 Miami OH
318 Minnesota -4.5 -7

319 Buffalo
320 Temple -3 -6

321 Akron
322 Ohio St -29 -28

323 Duke
324 UVA -7.5 -17

Wow, difference between these two numbers. it shouldn't be as low as 7.5 because even as shitty as the Cavs looked yesterday, they always suck on the road and should be able to get shit done at home vs. Duke. if it is that low, then it would be tremendous value. Duke sucks.

325 Alabama -3
326 Vandy +8

Been looking forward to this game forever. Was at the Vandy game yesterday. Nickson looked terrific and Earl Bennet is fucking ridiculous but we have some holes. The running game is pretty bad and the defense struggled a bit. I would say Bama -6 looks about right.

327 Toledo
328 CMU -2 -2

329 Bowling Green
330 Michigan St -11 -14

331 Rice
332 Baylor -2.5 -5

333 Utah St
334 Wyoming -6.5 -17

335 San Jose St
336 Kansas St -7 -13

337 California -20
338 Colorado St +19.5

This looks like maybe a little much. Cal's defense is not that good and they won't have the energy of week 1.

339 Mizzou -6
340 Ole Miss +12

Do the tigers have the defense to lay over a touchdown on the road here?

341 NC State
342 BC -9 -14

343 Ball St -7
344 EMU +10

345 Oregon
346 Michigan -4 -5

Should be a very interesting number. Oregon struggled on defense a lot as well. However the Ducks run an offense very similar to App State with better players. That can't be good news for Michigan.

347 Boise St -1
348 Washington +5.5

Washington is improved, Boise State is overated. The Huskies as a home dog look good. Probably BSU -2.5 and creeping toward pickem.

349 Fresno St
350 Texas A&M -14 -16

351 UAB
352 Florida St -32.5 -30

353 South Carolina
354 UGA -4 -8

355 Notre Dame
356 Penn State -10.5 -12

Both of these numbers look pretty short to me. Notre Dame is a joke and will not fair well in this one. This has to be more than 2 TDs.

357 AFA
358 Utah -1.5 -15

359 North Carolina
360 ECU -2 -5

361 BYU
362 UCLA -13.5 -8

363 USM
364 Tennessee -8 -16

365 TCU
366 Texas -9.5 -6

You have to like TCU in this game over a TD. The spread should be around 9.5. How will Texas score enough to cover that number vs. this defense when they dropped 21 on ASU.

367 Miss St -8
368 Tulane +10

369 Kent St
370 Kentucky -7.5 -11

This one should be closer to the 11 number. THe Wildcats can put up a lot of points.

371 UTEP
372 Texas Tech -11 -14

373 SDSU
374 Washington St -12 -16

375 Hawaii -28
376 La Tech +27.5

377 Syracuse
378 Iowa -16 -16

379 Indiana
380 WMU -6 -6

381 USF
382 Auburn -6.5 -11

Now way this is less than a touchdown. The Big East will not fair well in OOC matchups. I don't like Auburn at all this year, but they will lay more than a TD here.

383 Va Tech
384 LSU -6 -11

I would put it somewhere in the middle at around 8-8.5. Hard to see Va Tech scoring much.

385 NMSU
386 UNM -5.5 -11

387 Wisconsin -19
388 UNLV +22.5

389 Colorado
390 Arizona State -11.5 -12

391 ULM
392 Clemson -13 -22

393 Troy
394 Florida -26 -29

395 FAU
396 Oklahoma St -17.5 -19

397 Ohio -10
398 ULL +6

399 Maryland -20
400 FIU +25.5

401 Memphis -4
402 Arkansas St +7.5

403 North Texas
404 SMU -18 -22
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Here is where I would set the lines to get even action on both sides. In other words, I would consider these to be pretty fair lines. By going through the entire card, I am sure I screwed up a few so let me know what you guys think.
(Home Team listed first in each case)

Louisville -37 vs MTSU
Cincy +3.5 vs Oregon State
Rutgers -21.5 vs Navy
Marshall +31.5 vs WVU
MSU -7.5 vs BGSU
Ohio State -26 vs Akron
Purdue -41 vs EIU
Minny -6.5 vs Mia OH
Vandy +10.5 vs Alabama
Army -3.5 vs RIU
UVA -14.5 vs Duke
Wake +7.5 vs Neb
Pitt -28.5 vs Grambling
NW -3.5 vs Nevada
OU -10.5 vs Miami
Clem pending performance Monday vs ULM
GT -41 vs Samford
Cal -17.5 vs Colorado
BC -14.5 vs State
Michigan -1 vs Oregon
Washington -3 vs Boise
Georgia -6.5 vs S Car
ECU -2.5 vs UNC
PSU -14.5 vs ND
UCLA -10.5 vs BYU
ULL +3 vs Ohio
Arkie State +3.5 vs Memphis
Kansas -45 vs SELO
Tulane +3.5 vs Miss State
Texas -8.5 vs TCU
Wyoming -24.5 vs USU
EMU +8.5 vs Ball State
A&M -13.5 vs Fresno
Idaho -10.5 vs Poly
FSU -35.5 vs UAB
Kentucky -14.5 vs Kent
Florida -29 vs Troy
Utah pk vs AFA
WSU -14.5 vs SDSU
Tx Tech -21.5 vs UTEP
CMU -1.5 vs Toledo
La Tech +42 vs Hawaii
FIU +35 vs Maryland
Baylor pk vs Rice
Tenn -10.5 vs SMiss
KSU -17.5 vs SJSU
Iowa -21.5 vs Cuse
SMU -17.5 (assuming strong performance tonight) vs NTexas
LSU -10.5 vs VT
UNLV +28.5 vs Wisky
Ole Miss +7.5 vs Mizzou
Temple -3 vs Buff
Illinois -35.5 vs W ILL
ISU -3.5 vs NIU
Okie State -17.5 vs FAU
NIU -17.5 vs SIU
WMU +6.5 vs Indy
Auburn -6.5 vs USF
NM -3 vs NMSU
ASU -14.5 vs Colorado
Arizona -24.5 vs NAU
UConn -28.5 vs Maine

Whew....
 
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