SUNDAY MORNING COFFEE--Week 1 Review and Week 2 Line Predictions

RJ Esq

Prick Since 1974
303 Oregon St
304 Cincy

305 MTSU
306 L-ville

307 Navy
308 Rutgers

309 WVU
310 Marshall

311 Nevada
312 NW

313 Nebraska
314 Wake Forest

315 Miami Fl
316 OU

317 Miami OH
318 Minnesota

319 Buffalo
320 Temple

321 Akron
322 Ohio St

323 Duke
324 UVA

325 Alabama
326 Vandy

327 Toledo
328 CMU

329 Bowling Green
330 Michigan St

331 Rice
332 Baylor

333 Utah St
334 Wyoming

335 San Jose St
336 Kansas St

337 California
338 Colorado St

339 Mizzou
340 Ole Miss

341 NC State
342 BC

343 Ball St
344 EMU

345 Oregon
346 Michigan

347 Boise St
348 Washington

349 Fresno St
350 Texas A&M

351 UAB
352 Florida St

353 South Carolina
354 UGA

355 Notre Dame
356 Penn State

357 AFA
358 Utah

359 North Carolina
360 ECU

361 BYU
362 UCLA

363 USM
364 Tennessee

365 TCU
366 Texas

367 Miss St
368 Tulane

369 Kent St
370 Kentucky

371 UTEP
372 Texas Tech

373 SDSU
374 Washington St

375 Hawaii
376 La Tech

377 Syracuse
378 Iowa

379 Indiana
380 WMU

381 USF
382 Auburn

383 Va Tech
384 LSU

385 NMSU
386 UNM

387 Wisconsin
388 UNLV

389 Colorado
390 Arizona State

391 ULM
392 Clemson

393 Troy
394 Florida

395 FAU
396 Oklahoma St

397 Ohio
398 ULL

399 Maryland
400 FIU

401 Memphis
402 Arkansas St

403 North Texas
404 SMU
 
Last edited:
Spots I'm looking for on first look ...could change if games go not as planned on Sat...

Wisky
LSU
UK
UCLA
Minny
Bama
S FLA
Boise

Will be keeping close eye on all the prospective teams today.
 
yep, jump...next week should be the first week where there's a ton of value on ucla.

penn st, if not ridiculous.

oregon/michigan over whatever.
 
Angle for everyone on the Wisky game:

Wisky is trying to get as many fans to Vegas for the game so that they can break the record for world's largest away game tailgate. Lot of rooms already sold to Wisky fans.

If WSU keeps the game close against Wisky, lots of good value.
 
Looking through your situation picks, Jump.

Here are the spots I picked before games started:

Situational plays for Week 2.

BC revenge game against O'Brien vs. NC State
Clemson in a potential letdown spot against ULM
Florida State in a sandwich spot against UAB
Georgia Tech in a sandwich spot against Samford
Maryland in a lookahead spot against FIU
UNC in a lookahead spot against ECU
L-ville in a lookahead spot against MTSU
Syracuse in a revenge game against Iowa
NW in a revenge game against Nevada
Wisconsin in a letdown spot against UNLV
Colorado in a revenge game against ASU
KSU in a possible let down spot against SJSU
Nebraska in a look ahead spot against Wake Forest
UTEP in a revenge game against TTech
Memphis in a revenge game against Ark St
Tulane in a revenge game against Miss St
Navy in a revenge game against Rutgers
Temple in a revenge game against Buffalo
Ohio in a possible look ahead against ULL
Air Force in a revenge game against Utah
UNM in a revenge game against NMSU
Wyoming in a sandwich game against Utah St
Florida in a possible look ahead spot against Troy
Georgia and South Carolina in a rivalry game
Kentucky in a possible look ahead spot against Kent St
Tennessee in a sandwich game against USM
 
Well, I'd say this day (Saturday) was charachterized by conservative playcalling and unmotivated performances by a number of huge favs. Texas, Michigan, and USC, I'm looking at you.

Meanwhile, WVU, PSU, Arky, and OU impressed me. OU is clearly the best team in the Big XII right now

I'm also worried about Texas vs. TCU. If TCU catches DD, that's the way to go.
 
I will be in Vegas next weekend for the Wiscy/UNLV game, should be a blast.

And what the fuck happened with the Horns game tonight? 21 fucking pts. against that team???? I got a high colonic on that one. Really though, wondering wtf happened for you guys that watched the game.
 
Colorado in a revenge game against ASU

When I saw the schedule, this was the first thing I thought of.

Thing is, I'm not sure CU has the horses to compete in that one.

Given the scores today they'll probably be getting a lot of points, though.
 
I will be in Vegas next weekend for the Wiscy/UNLV game, should be a blast.

And what the fuck happened with the Horns game tonight? 21 fucking pts. against that team???? I got a high colonic on that one. Really though, wondering wtf happened for you guys that watched the game.

Tim:

I'll be in Vegas too.

Here's a few thoughts about Texas. Really pissed and scared about TCU:

*The running game, while not bad, was all too reminiscent of 2006.
*The linebackers continue to be a source of more disappointment than excitement.
*Tweedle Dee was... well, he wasn't good.
*The secondary as a whole was inconsistent.
*The personnel decisions are going to be a point of contention. And soon.

Those are the big points of weakness which stood out to me tonight. I'll go ahead and note right now that A) I saw enough talent on the field today to believe this team can win the Big 12, and B) the coaches have a lot of work left to do to get us to the point where that can happen.

I'll post some articles later.
 
West Virginia @ Marshall
Northwestern vs Nevada
Nebraska @ Wake Forest
Kansas St vs San Jose St
California @ Colorado St
Oregon at Michigan TOTAL
Florida St vs UAB
Penn St vs Notre Dame
UCLA @ BYU
Texas Tech vs UTEP
LSU vs Virginia Tech
Arizona St vs Colorado
Wisconsin @ UNLV
 
Couple of misleading scores. Add more if you have 'em:

Arkansas 46 v Troy 26 (Troy scored last second TD).
Auburn 23 v K State 13 (Last minute TD for Auburn off a fumble)
Mizzou 40 v Illy 34 (Mizzou lucky to get last second INT, also need to look at Juice status)
 
BAR, what do you think about UTEP going to Lubbock next week for a revenge game? Assuming TT does well on Monday, I think they dominate this Miner team
 
I agree with the 7-5 record if this is what to expect:

Horns put forth lackluster effort

If this becomes a pattern, look for a 7-5 season.

<SCRIPT src="http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/cnishared/js/NewsworthyAudioC2L.js" type=text/javascript></SCRIPT><SCRIPT src="http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/cnishared/newsworthy/statesman/sports/stories/longhorns/09/02/statesman_sports_stories_longhorns_09_02_0902bohls.js" type=text/javascript></SCRIPT>AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Sunday, September 02, 2007
In a ragged, disjointed season opener that only a Michigan team could really appreciate, Texas won its first football game of the year.
Here's pretty much the extent of the good news: thank goodness Texas wasn't playing somebody really good like Appalachian State. Arkansas State was more than enough.
The Longhorns survived a gritty effort from a really good team picked third in the Sun Belt Conference, which was basically the lesser of two evils Saturday and just slightly better than the upset that befell No. 5 Michigan.
As the rightfully proud Indians walked somberly off the Royal-Memorial Stadium field to fitting applause from Texas fans in the southwest section, defensive tackle Prince Hickman muttered, "They're supposed to be the Big 12."
He's right. And the Longhorns are supposed to be the heavyweights of that league. They are supposed to be a lot of things.
Texas looked very plain in its 21-13 win over Arkansas State, and nothing like a team ranked fourth in the nation. It was very unbecoming a team that was a 39-point favorite.
Asked if the Longhorns looked like a top-10 team, standout wide receiver Limas Sweed said, "I don't know. I'm not an analyst. We went out and played hard."
Unfortunately, they don't give points for playing hard, and the Indians gave up precious few themselves, just seven in the final 47-plus minutes. If the Longhorns play like this the rest of the season, they'll go 7-5.
At least the game was telecast only on PPV (pay-per-view) and not on HTV (Had To View). In the end, Texas finished with fewer yards rushing than Arkansas State, fewer yards passing than Arkansas State, and was penalized for more yards.
The crux of the narrow victory comes down to this:
Texas wasn't physical enough.
Texas wasn't disciplined enough.
Texas didn't finish enough.
Sadly, Mack Brown said he wasn't hard on his team in his postgame locker-room comments.
"No, this place is hard enough," the Longhorns coach said. "We can win by 40, and people are mad. We'll be honest with them and say some of these things are not very good. We couldn't score from the 1-yard line. That's not good."
The Longhorns were denied a touchdown on a terrific goal-line stand by Arkansas State, made repeated errors in trying to contain amazingly elusive quarterback Corey Leonard, and committed personal fouls to extend Indians drives and help ASU reach Texas territory on eight of 11 possessions.
At times, it was hard to tell which Davey O'Brien candidate was better, because Colt McCoy started ablaze and then couldn't get his team in the end zone.
"There were some tough plays, and we didn't convert on some things," McCoy said. "But that's fixable. It was not the prettiest and not the best, but we're 1-0. I'm not discouraged."
He's probably the only one.
Let's get all the lame excuses out of the way.
Arkansas State gives out scholarships, too. Most teams are rusty in their first game. Texas is very young. The Longhorns didn't want to show their hand against next week's perhaps-too-worthy opponent, Texas Christian. The team is a work in progress. It sure beats a loss.
That enough?
Now for the heavy lifting.
What's most worrisome is the lack of a punishing ground game and the realization that the Texas offense may be more finesse that physical. That's an old description of the Longhorns that we'd hoped was dead and buried forever once ol' whazisname took Texas to a national championship. By my count, Texas lined up in the I-formation twice outside the jumbo package inside the 5 and once threw for a nifty touchdown pass to Antwan Cobb out of it.
Too often, McCoy hands the ball to Jamaal Charles, who dances and jukes until he can find daylight. He put on a good offensive show with his assortment of dash and wiggle with his first 100-yard game in 11 games, but for too much of the evening, the running game failed to get untracked and continues to go sideways first.
As that Exhibit A, Texas couldn't punch in a touchdown in four tries from inside the ASU 3-yard line, with Charles held for no gain on fourth-and-goal at the 1.
As a good footnote, offensive coordinator Greg Davis did not call for the quarterback sneak on the lip of the goal-line, and McCoy is healthy enough to play next week.
"I thought it was going to be real easy," Charles said. "I took 'em lightly, then I had to go out and fight for everything."
As did his teammates.
On the bright side, however, we're guessing the Longhorns really didn't want to show TCU anything. Like the idea they're a great team. Here's hoping they save that.
 
Reaction from ND Fan Blog:

Yikes
By CW Section: Football
Posted on Sat Sep 01, 2007 at 09:43:13 PM EDT
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Well, I had some serious questions about both lines and how any of the quarterbacks would respond to the Tenuta blitzes, but I didn't think it would be that bad. Full run-down of the beatdown today coming up tomorrow, but here's your brief preview:
  • Tom Zbikowski is an awful football player. It's as if someone told him to go look as active as someone can without actually doing anything.
  • Travis Thomas does not need to play. I'm well aware he's a considerably better blocker than James Aldridge or Armando Allen, but you can't even compare the quality of his runs versus theirs. It's as if Weis isn't content to just pound the ball to playmakers and tries to outsmart himself.
  • I say Jimmy Clausen starts next week and it's not a question. I realize he didn't have to contend with Jamal Lewis or Philip Wheeler screaming at him, but his throws were just there.
  • But hey, at least we're not Michigan.
 
I rutgers is gonna crush navy...line should tell it all. navy's d looked brutal vs temple. (Yes, I watched the whole game LOL).
 
UTEP is very bad..steele said bowl..not so much...

That is a bad squad...even though they won..they didn;t do shit..one 15 yard penalty and a 36 yard run up the gut...that was game..UNM dominated
 
<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD class=storytitle colSpan=3>Instant Analysis: Wake Forest-Boston College </TD></TR><TR><TD class=primaryimage vAlign=top>

</TD><TD noWrap width=3></TD><TD vAlign=top><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=4 width="60%" bgColor=#f5f5f5 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=center noWrap>By Matt Zemek
Staff Columnist
Posted Sep 1, 2007
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Casual football observers will look at Matt Ryan's 400-yard, five-touchdown game and say that Boston College won this crucial ACC Atlantic Division opener with quarterbacking and offense. They'd be wrong.
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Season-opening games have enough pressure to begin with. When they're a conference game, the pressure increases exponentially. When they're a division game, well, let's just say that eight months of rest turns into runaway stress in a heartbeat. The key in these games is not technical excellence (though that always helps), but the ability to make timely plays in big situations. With all the pendulum swings that typically accompany backyard divisional battles, it's incredibly important to maximize good stretches and minimize bad ones. This points to the value of making not just big plays, but timely ones.

If you apply this standard to Saturday afternoon's shootout between the Deacs and the Eagles in Chestnut Hill, the hero was not Matt Ryan, but Boston College cornerback DeJuan Tribble.

In an up-and-down game that maintained its wild nature from start to finish, it was Tribble who repeatedly stepped up--and stepped in front of Wake Forest passes--to alter the competitive balance of this volatile contest. With the score tied at 21 in the third quarter and Wake facing 3rd and goal at the BC 3, Tribble made a superb interception in the end zone and ran the ball 30 yards to the Eagle 29. Only then was Ryan able to lead a rejuvenated offense downfield and give the resurgent Eagles a 28-21 lead. On the next Wake series, Tribble--who came up with a disputed interception in the first half of the game--decided to pick on Demon Deacon quarterback Riley Skinner once again. The senior from Cincinnati registered his third interception to increase the feel-good aura permeating the BC sideline. Buoyed by even more momentum, Ryan and his mates--who weren't always sharp on this afternoon--put their best foot forward and scored another touchdown for a 35-21 lead that would hold up for the duration. Both teams made stacks of big plays, but BC's defense--specifically Tribble--made more timely plays in crunch time. The scoreboard tells you this was a shootout won with offense; but in the BC locker room, every man knows that DeJuan Tribble was the real hero for the Eagles, who notched a huge win for first-year coach Jeff Jagodzinski.

A new coaching career began on an especially sweet note for Boston College this afternoon. But the new boss in New England </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
LSU looks good to me, any idea of what the line might open at. I was really pis*ed this week because I got the lines late, for example, Mich St, I got it at 23.5!! I layed off, but hit the 1H. I want to get in on the lines early this week. Overall, had a great saturday.

BAR, as long as there is not a - by your units for a weekend, looks like a winning week to me.

RJ..great info, really appreciate all the work.
 
My two cents:

I am not betting against Oklahoma this year.

Every Michigan game will go over.

Flynn and Donovan are good.

Auburn has no oline, and Cox still sucks.

WVU is SERIOUS..do not doubt them, no one can stop White and Slaton and I mean no one...well maybe oklahoma...but that's it.

LSU will rock Glennon and vtech..lay the lumber
 
<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD class=storytitle colSpan=3>Instant Analysis: East Carolina-Virginia Tech </TD></TR><TR><TD class=primaryimage vAlign=top>

</TD><TD noWrap width=3></TD><TD vAlign=top><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=4 width="60%" bgColor=#f5f5f5 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=center noWrap>By Matt Zemek
Staff Columnist
Posted Sep 1, 2007
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Much more than a mere football game, Saturday's season opener for the Virginia Tech Hokies represented a cathartic moment for a university torn by grief, a community looking to move on with life.
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For this fundamental reason, typical football analysis falls flat in attempting to explain what happened in Lane Stadium on an emotional afternoon in Blacksburg. Kudos to the gritty and inspired athletes of East Carolina, who made this game much more competitive than anyone expected. But the first, last and--frankly--the only story of this game is how much the larger moment put the sport of college football into perspective, especially for the Virginia Tech family.

If this game had been played a year ago, before the tragic and haunting events of April 16, 2007, chances are that a number of football-specific comments would have been allowed to stand without much of any complaint or objection. These kinds of comments--belonging to the worlds of the Internet and talk radio--might have possessed some degree of football-based analytical truth, but they would have remained overly harsh for non-professional athletes just 20 years of age. Today, these kinds of comments seem absolutely silly and downright trivial when placed against the backdrop of the awful events that rocked the Hokie Nation over four months ago.

In the wake of a sluggish 17-7 win over East Carolina, the perspective offered by tragedy makes it both pointless and even nasty to discuss the performance of quarterback Sean Glennon. A year ago, the young man would be ripped in the press. Today, the man deserves credit for merely stepping on the field and competing.

In the wake of a game in which Virginia Tech's offense scored just 10 points, the perspective offered by tragedy makes it equally insensitive to discuss the play of the Hokies' entire offense or speculate about this team's chances of winning the ACC. You get the picture: football analysis is inappropriate on a day like today, but even more importantly, this game reminds us why professional athletes deserve much more criticism and rigorous scrutiny than do college athletes. These Hokie football players are carrying a big burden, and while all of America wanted to see this team perform really well today, the fact that they didn't should not cause a single American to be somehow disappointed or angry with the Hokies' performance against East Carolina.

For all the reasons stated above, the only criticism that deserves to appear in this immediate postgame analysis is directed toward the Virginia Tech fans who booed Glennon at points throughout Saturday's game. One doesn't have to explain why booing a Virginia Tech football player is lower than low on the scale of human decency.

Congratulations to the Virginia Tech community (minus the ones who booed Hokie players) for reaching this special and healing moment. Forget the quality of today's performance by Frank Beamer's team. The mere fact that Beamer and his players were out there performing at all is victory enough for a community that has already done so much to rebound from </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
thanks wizard.....I fucked myself...but feel good about the capping....

Thats betting...you can cap well and lose or not be where you think you should be
 
i am a utep alum so it hurts me to say this but they looked atrocious at home tonight. very undeserving winner. they will not be able to match tech point for point by a long stretch and given ot game from last year they wont be looking past utep either. unless tech dominates smu monday i will likely be playing the red raiders as there will probably be value in the line.
 
also , as far as deceiving scores go. the baylor tcu game was much more competitive than you might think
 
I am very disappointed with that team in Columbia, SC. Not only did I have a terrible day, I had a terrible time watching this defense whiff on every tackle. The game starts 14-0 with 9 minutes left in the 1st. SC gets the ball back and Smelley comes in to QB. SC is throwing on every down and Smelley goes deep to the endzone to get picked, this is where the game turned and they performed like absolute shit. The defense that I had talked up and said would be much improved in the front 7, they made me look like a fool. Talent is good and all but experience is sometimes better and thats where not having Jordin Lindsey hurt. These young DE'S got upfield but play after play after play ULL QB faked them out. ULL had over 300 yards on the ground, that is just awful. When they did throw, there were huge HOLES in the zones. I read the rivals board and they had every excuse in the world for the game tonight and I just don't have any. The defense was pure shit.
 
ETG

thanks for thoughts...I am dissapointed in them too

run defebnse is awful..2 years ago..against bama in Columbia...thats the same run defense
 
anybody have a line prediction for Boise at Udub after that thrashing last night..?


I think this is a Pick em or UW a slight favorite.......compelling game......i think both teams score some points here....O/U about 55(?)......think the huskies have the better offense and as good as defense.....like UW here a lot.....bet on a big, loud crowd....and boise not a world beater on the road, to say the least.
 
People want to say oh they were vanilla, they were chocolate, whatever color they were, it doesn't matter. The schemes don't tell you to whiff or go 20 yards upfield with your head down. Brinkley was out the first series after Smelley threw the pick, they went 90yds down the field to score. He means a lot to the defense and if his ankle is bothering him, that is a world of trouble for SC. He did end up playing later on. Did the team become uninterested after getting up 14-0 early? I don't know but there is just no excuse for how that defense looked tonight. This was a typical SC opening game, I thought it would be different and it wasn't. They looked like they did against Wofford last night. I am too frustrated to think about UGA, they looked very good tonight. I left tonights game with a lot more questions than answers, not something I am happy about.. On a side note, quick observations from other games I watched today.

ND- wow, the only thing I got right today was how much trouble this offense is in. Penn St should be able to smack them by 17+. I was not impressed with Taylor Bennett and the GT red zone offense had some trouble.

ECU- They surprised me on defense. VT, maybe it was the emotion of the day, I don't know, I do know that Glennon sucks like everyone else above said. LSU will likely eat this offense alive.

UAB- Possibly the worst rush defense in all of football, yes even worse than SC.

Oklahoma- That is how you take care of a shitty team like you are suppose to.

OK St- I expected more from the offense. The defense is shit and still a bad road team until proven otherwise.

Cal- FAST. They have four guys that flat out fly on offense. Defense is a whole different story. Tenny, Cal made you look slow and foolish at times
 
list of deceiving scores in games i watched or followed

boston college 38 wake forest 28 -- bc was better than indicated
auburn 23 kansas st 13 -- k state led most of the way in very competitive defensive game
TCU 27 Baylor 0- far more competitive than score. once tcu got up 17 and baylor became one dimensional, the horn frogs just sat on patterns and broke on the ball. i think at half baylor and tcu had very similar yardage gained
utep 10 new mexico 6 -- new mexico ran it down uteps throat most of the game , bogging down near the goal line and then missing gimme field goals. utep looked like last years team with anemic rushing capability. new mexico likely should have won this by double digits
houston 27 oregon 48- houston outgained oregon and had a 29-23 first down edge. they turned the ball over 4 times and had a punt blocked. the one thing not deceiving in this score are the points. oregon and houston offenses are for real.

might be forgetting a game or two but those are the ones with what i think were deceiving final scores to some degree or another
 
I forgot to add one game review.

Arizona - I will never bet one of their games this season. I said the BYU game was likely the only one I touch and that is finalized now. Between ND, Syracuse, and Zona, I think I witnessed 3 of the worst offense of my life.
BYU and the people who backed BYU, my hat is off to you.

Week 2 games I am going to look at 2morrow


Navy/Rutgers*
WVU*/Marshall
Nevada/NorthWestern*
Duke/Virginia*
UM/Oklahoma*
Cal*/Colo ST, Over
NCST/BC*
UAB/FSU*
SC/UGA
ND/PSU*
BYU/UCLA
Messy*/Tulane
Hawaii*/LaTech
VT/LSU*
Syracuse/Iowa, Under
Buffalo/Temple*
Utah St/Wyoming


 
One thing I noticed that kind of disturbed me, from both a fan and a bettors standpoint (I was on the over), was how San Jose St. Punted the ball at the end of the game when they were down 42. The game was well in hand, like 3 minutes left, so I am not talking about them having a shot in hell. That is just quitting. I really do believe that you should go down fighting, no matter what the score.

The SJSt coach instructed his kids to quit before the clock struck double zeros. That does not really jive well with my opinion of teaching these athletes to compete.

What if they are in a conference game, against their heated rivals, and they have a 4th and 10+ situation, what better way to get game time experience that to actually perform a situation IN A GAME.

I am not bitter about losing the bet. Hell, had they got the necessary yardage, they would have been no better than about midfield , with under 3 minutes left, and still probably would not have had the chance to score.

I just think this coach did a disservice to his kids. Talk to you guys in the morning.
 
will be curious to see these lines...revised from last night's posting...

oregon st
rutgers
duke/uva under
alabama
oregon/michigan over
penn st
bc
uga
ucla
tcu
kentucky
lsu
arizona st
toledo


anyhow...with monday's games still out there, do you guys think they'll be releasing this coming week's lines a bit later than the norm?
 
The only way to bet the 30-50pts favorites is to do ML parlays and hope they dont lose like Mich. These guys all just coasted !!!

Who watched the S.Carolina game? Did they pull out all the starters in the first half?
 
After watching games all day yesterday, I believe we will see value on most any team that has kickers able to still get the touchback on kickoffs....the number of posessions starting at the 40+ I saw was rediculous yesterday

On the same note, most overs will have value until linesmakers adjust the totals
 
Hawaii hasn't missed a beat by the way. I got lucky getting the early number there as they only ended up winning by 57, but they had 4 TDs in the first quarter and were up 42-0 at the half. I know it was against Northern Colorado but they demonstrated how a big fav is supposed to play against a lesser opponent. Will be tough to find value on their lines this year, but still may be worth a look (same as Ville) even though the lines will be really high. I think Hawaii and the Ville are two teams this year who might be the ones to play as far as big favs go but of course it depends on how high the lines are.
 
Fresno caused me a headache last night because they couldn't hold onto the ball, but their offense was solid, so will be curious to see the line vs A&M as that one may be worth a shot on the over.
 
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