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Sunday, February 4th: Potential 'hold your nose' situational play

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Hey all,

I was doing some routine capping this week and happened upon what may be a solid situational spot next weekend in the NBA. The league today, isn't what it used to be, for situational spots on the schedule. Part of that is the league has taken away those spots on the schedule plus these players are rested so much, they are generally fresh. With that being said, we still see letdown situations and some fatigue spots.

I think we might have one of these upcoming...

You'll notice in the thread title I have used one of my favorite sayings from a decade or more ago -- "Hold your nose". What does this mean? Simply put, you will have to bet on a bad team to cover. That is rarely one's first choice when handicapping sports. Hey, you have to take those stinky teams once in awhile! Hence, the phrase.

Anyways, I will show you the two schedules and this spot should make sense. The reason this really stuck out for me, is this tip-off time. I love the ole matinee to end a road trip like this. Without further ado...



PHOENIX SUNS

  • 1-24 Wednesday @ Dallas
  • 1-26 Friday @ Indiana
  • 1-28 Sunday @ Orlando
  • 1-29 Monday @ Miami
  • 1-31 Wednesday @ Brooklyn
  • 2-2 Friday @ Atlanta
  • 2-4 Sunday @ Washington (3:30 start)


WASHINGTON BULLETS

  • 1-27 Saturday @ Detroit
  • 1-29 Monday @ San Antonio
  • 1-31 Wednesday vs LA Clippers
  • 2-2 Friday vs Miami
  • 2-4 Sunday vs Phoenix (3:30 start)


So, we have the Suns on the last game of a 7-game road trip over 12 days. This is a pretty long trip in today's league to be honest. They have already had a few up-tempo games to start the trip. They will come in after what likely is a tempo game down in Atlanta.

On the other hand, we have the pitiful Wizards. They actually start this next eight days with game against their lottery partners in what is sure to be thrilling action. The homestand starts after that, with no back to backs. Playing 5 games in 9 days with a day off between each is quite ideal.

Remember, this is a 3:30 tip instead of the standard evening. The Suns will be waiting out a Saturday in DC waiting to play a terrible team, most likely thinking about getting back home to their families and girlfriends.

So the thing here, we will be receiving points. We won't have to win the game in order to win the bet.

Now, we are over a week away from this one, and many things can change. Maybe the Suns rest a player or two at the end of the trip? Maybe the Wiz upset the Clips or Heat and have haad their success for the week. Anything can happen. With that being said, I feel like this is a pretty good spot.

I just want to be prepared. These are the dog days of the season. This is the time to strike on a few ugly-ass teams.

We'll track the Suns trip until next weekend and look to play this on Saturday at what I will assume is the best number.

Feel free to add your thoughts.
 
Good stuff, appreciate the work and the discovery. These situational bets are a great way for me to get involved with sports that I don’t usually bet on.

I’m guessing we don’t want Wiz to get a big win before facing the Suns? Are we hoping for Wiz to just keep sucking ahead of Suns game?
 
Good stuff, appreciate the work and the discovery. These situational bets are a great way for me to get involved with sports that I don’t usually bet on.

I’m guessing we don’t want Wiz to get a big win before facing the Suns? Are we hoping for Wiz to just keep sucking ahead of Suns game?
Ideally.

I am not saying that a win by them cancels this at all, but I would rather not have them content with a big upset in the preceding two games.
 
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Ideally.

I am not saying that a win buy them cancels this at all, but I would rather not have them content with a big upset in the preceding two games.
You've at least put an exercise out there for me to see how KD has performed in DC over the years, that's just devil's advocate because this angle is about as good as it gets in my book
 
Ideally the Suns are in tight games but also win a few of these ahead of time.

We don't want that game to be a slump buster.
 
Ideally the Suns are in tight games but also win a few of these ahead of time.

We don't want that game to be a slump buster.
Suns won 2 of the 3 during the week.

That helps.

They played a full 46 vs the Hawks.

I say that because down 7 with 2:27 left they seemed to toss the towel in.

Why did I notice?

There was only 2 more points scored in this game to put the 2h under.

Washington played well vs Miami for a half, then fell apart on Friday night.

Line is 9.5 currently.

I started with 1 unit.
 
Suns won 2 of the 3 during the week.

That helps.

They played a full 46 vs the Hawks.

I say that because down 7 with 2:27 left they seemed to toss the towel in.

Why did I notice?

There was only 2 more points scored in this game to put the 2h under.

Washington played well vs Miami for a half, then fell apart on Friday night.

Line is 9.5 currently.

I started with 1 unit.
Add one more unit at +11

So,

+9.5
+11

Both -110
 
I give up on situational basketball.

Officially done looking ahead.

Teams rest players so much and luxury travel that tired isn't a thing anymore.

Oh well.
 
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