Odds
Sunday Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Sadly im not sure if we be able to do the waino fade or not, calling for quite a bit of rain throughout day 2marro here in stl, that a real bummer. The hour by hour shows it letting up after 3, I dunno if they wait around to try and play it, or if the weather forecast be accurate but either way I hate getting involved in these kinds of games, I also hate the idea of not playing reds Ff or gm team total over against this old bastard, lol. Guess we see what happens with the weather.
chipnotized
Bigger Slapper Than Al MacInnis
I thought I was seeing things when I saw +200 on Cincy for the series on Friday when I looked at the pitching matchups for the weekend...I was gonna ask you for your eye doctors number banker!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I assume they gonna put Gausman at 8.5 k’s, he has earned that number and twins strike out a ton. He actually has a terrible history vs twins, lot of it was well before he the pitcher he is now, he went 5.1 and fanned 8, only 1 run but bunch of walks at minny a few starts back. He been untouchable in day starts this year with a era well under 1 and a 62:8 k;bb, at home the era is a tad north of 1! Lol. Needless to say I don’t expect the walks this time around. He has fanned double digits in 6 starts, only one way to play him but it have to be very low juice or plus for me to play over 8.5 k’s, anything lower automatic.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
I already took some TT ov 3.5, think we see a 330 kickoff
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I honestly don’t even know if we have delayed start? It pretty much just sprinkling now, it does pick up every now and then but doesn’t last real long. I think they hour by hour being Overly conservative. They might get little wet but I think they should be playing by 1-2. Seems stupid not to go with reds full 9 total, 3 to cash Ff 4 to cash game w cards suspect pen? Ov 3 5 obviously makes more sense. They put waino out total at 17.5 again, not sure I get that, he still has yet to complete 6 innings! He probably would have last start if not for a error but I still think it a good bet cincy runs him before 6 innings.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
I kind of like wainwright under 4.5 Ks. He's gone 3, 6, 2, 1, 2, 5 this year. 2 vs Reds on 5/23 and I watched the game and he wasn't getting deep in the counts at all. I think i posted in here about it.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
You have, he hasn’t hit 18 outs once tho and they keep setting him there! I might just stick w reds I just thought I’d bring up, I find it odd they continue putting him there cause the chances he gets thru a lineup 3x just don’t seem good to me. If his number is 4.5 k’s that def seems high I just hate playing k unders, certainly nothing wrong with it.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
I do think the reds touch him up today
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I always expect them to touch him up, even before he got old reds generally hit him pretty well, prob more so in ya’ll bandbox but I like lot the kids in reds lineup, I’ve been watching them battle pitchers with excellent stuff, continue fouling off pitches till they get something they can hit, it not hard to foul off waino good pitches, everyone doing it, make him work and hit his mistakes
2daBank
Voice of Reason
They got some balls hanging a 5.5 k total with Keller. Guess it comes down to if we think his last start in particular (last few ain’t been great) a blip or a problem? The 1 k vs oakland was odd to say the least, I will say keller does seem to get more k’s than you would expect compared to his typical swinging strike rate, so maybe his k’s are gonna come down: it tough to argue with the results tho! Dude has punched 7+ in 10 of 13 starts, has a higher k rate vs lefties and Mets have 5 in lineup today.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
Reds starting to play a little bit. De La Cruz looks legit good and the young starting pitching is starting to look halfway decent...that division is a hot mess too.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Nl ventral making oakland look good! Lol
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Fuck it's not even 9:30
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Price is for sure right to play rangers one way or another. I saw the other day they actually had a bigger run differential than rays, that surprised me. I played rangers yesterday cause I thought the pitching edge they had warranted a way different price, clearly they don’t have that today but think this number excessive. Just not sure I want to bet against rays at home b2b days? Mfers been a machine in the trop.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I don't know yet but gonna look it up
Woke up at 4am, watched sunrise and tennis...yet can't even keep track of the baseball schedule
Who the fuck throws first pitch at 9am? I don't care what time zone you're in, that's a kick in the nuts
2daBank
Voice of Reason
So the one I loved the most was Gilbert k’s but I played these 3.
Keller ov 5.5 k’s
Guasman ov 8.5 k’s
Gilbert ov 5.5 k’s
Keller is basically just the fact he has went past this so often I’m willing to get beat at least once more before I bail on him. We will reevaluate if he bad again today. Looks like rain could be heading into Pittsburg later this afternoon so I’d expect a generous k zone to get the game in quickly as possible. Carrasco out total was def a consideration but ultimately I had to roll with Keller at this number.
Guasman is like right there with strider imo as the best strike out pitcher going this season and he facing one the highest k teams, I don’t play many 8.5s but as I said last night I think it more than justified here and the price was right to give him a go.
Keller ov 5.5 k’s
Guasman ov 8.5 k’s
Gilbert ov 5.5 k’s
Keller is basically just the fact he has went past this so often I’m willing to get beat at least once more before I bail on him. We will reevaluate if he bad again today. Looks like rain could be heading into Pittsburg later this afternoon so I’d expect a generous k zone to get the game in quickly as possible. Carrasco out total was def a consideration but ultimately I had to roll with Keller at this number.
Guasman is like right there with strider imo as the best strike out pitcher going this season and he facing one the highest k teams, I don’t play many 8.5s but as I said last night I think it more than justified here and the price was right to give him a go.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'm 4 bloody marys in and on to day drinking and it's 9:45
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I'm 4 bloody marys in and on to day drinking and it's 9:45
You know me and tennis, only French open play I made was Friday, I couldn’t freaking believe joker was a dog in a grand slam! Even on clay to anyone but nadal, I couldn’t even find match or I missed it, just know I won! Lol. I saw for final he was back to big juice so I left alone, no clue if he won it, did he?
Marsski
MAC Marvel
I liked Greene over at 6.5 -110...you probably dont bet against your boys though....agree on Gilbert
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
He likely would have lost if Alcaraz didn't get the calf cramps but you're spot on
I woke at 4am and have watched the women doubles final and the men's final. At 10 now, I don't know what to do. Guess it's 81 out so maybe some sun, can't believe there isn't a big game today
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think jp Sears ov 5.5 k’s is playable I just been fucked every time I’ve tried playing a A’s pitcher so left it alone. A’s Ff makes some sense also. The concern would be Sears giving up 1.8ish hr per 9 which really milw best path to runs, they not gonna put together bunch of hits with the way this lineup put together! brewers strike out a whopping 32% the time against lhp so Sears out dueling Freddy p who has struggled most the year despite a uptick in velo, doesn’t seem that far fetched.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Lol, you really think I have a problem betting against cards? I do it a lot! Even years I like them gotta be against them more than on as much like the Yankees there always seems to be a extra tax on them! This year they continue being lined like a good team and they are not. Im just not big playing k props against them cause for most part they not a high swing and miss team, I like playing the low k totals on unknown or not highly thought of guys against them, long as they got a solid slider! Lively a good example of that. I certainly don’t have a problem playing greens over 6.5 ever really. I just wasn’t sure what to expect from him having not pitched in 9-10 days? In general I tend to worry bout guys with control issues on longer layoffs, you probably know how that affects him better than me? I really just didn’t look close as I’m so focused on fading waino days he starts!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Cardinals really only have a couple guys in lineup most days I’d consider high k (for this era! They all strike out too much for my taste, not for k props tho!). When greene on he is def a guy I’d consider mostly matchup proof as he has the stuff to mow anyone down. It was just the layoff and my desire to play reds team total I didn’t spend any time looking at Greene.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I love gallen but more and more he a dude I avoid when it comes to day starts east of Mississippi. Should maybe be a fade considering he getting a lot of respect in his prop numbers and the snakes lines when he pitches. He tends to be much better home and west, when he pitches out east you not only have to worry bout him but more often than not the snakes pen be involved earlier in those starts opposed to when he home, really don’t want to be laying juice with snakes even tied when starter leaves.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Well Keller proved to be easy as it looked. No clue why they put him at 5.5? Once again I take a 8.5 on chin, Gausman got blown up in 1st basically killing that, gotta be perfect to cash those which why I don’t like playing them. He been so good day and home, bottom line I should really just avoid those 8.5s!! There were other good options, sometimes I should just pass on Gausman but it so tough, especially in what I thought was a great matchup for k’s. That ok, no juice on him so long as Gilbert does his job and reds score 4 be a fine day. I’m pretty damn confident in Gilbert, he has dominated halo’s. Another number I was surprised wasn’t a 6.5.
