Profitable day yesterday... hope to repeat today
BR: 2,416
Toronto -1 -109
- Halladay on the mound. Toronto winners of three straight, ChiSox losers of four straight. Toronto stays at home. I would play the regular runline laying one and a half runs, but with the way Toronto has been hitting the ball, I do not want that half run to bite me in the ass. I will play a combination of the moneyline and runline to give myself a price on the Blue Jays of -109 laying only one run.
Boston -110
- If you were told at the beginning of the season that you could play Boston at Fenway against Tampa and only lay ten cents, you would have thought something was wrong with Boston. Well, I am getting Lester, who I think to be underrated, with a healthy Boston team that is playing well, and with a Boston team that has revenge on their minds from getting swept in late April by this same Tampa team. But, this is not the main reason I am picking Boston today; it only complements the main reason, which is Kazmir. As I have said before, humans are creatures of habit. Kazmir is a good pitcher, but he has been on the DL since hurting his elbow early in spring training. It will take Kazmir some time to warm-up and get back into a routine. Not only do I think Vegas is overpricing Kazmir, but I also think Vegas is overpricing Tampa because of the sweep game fallacy. A three game series shows no profitable angle relating to betting a team preventing the sweep, in fact, you are better off betting on the team up 2-0 in the series if you can catch them at plus money (Boston is not at plus money, so this angle does not apply to this bet). A four-game series shows a profitable angle betting on a team to prevent the sweep, but that doesn't apply here either.
Minnseota -101
- Well, this classifies as a home dog since Detroit was -102, so that works to our advantage. But this game also represents a Minnesota team that has won four in a row. So we have three profitable angles working to our advantage here: home dog, a four-win home dog, and betting on a team to sweep a three-game series as an underdog.
Houston +134
- I am not a fan of going against Sheets. One, he is a damn good pitcher. Two, he is a Baton Rouge native. But, this classifies as a play on a home dog, so I will bet small.
Arizona +113
- I knew Haren would look good in his move to the NL. Arizona is a good team. Santana is a great pitcher. But, I consider the starting pitcher to be worth approx 60% of my bet. So, I am getting a good team as a home dog. I'm signing up...
Today's investments:
Boston 332/302
Toronto -1 329/302
Minnesota 203/201
Houston 81/109
Arizona 81/92
BR: 2,416
Toronto -1 -109
- Halladay on the mound. Toronto winners of three straight, ChiSox losers of four straight. Toronto stays at home. I would play the regular runline laying one and a half runs, but with the way Toronto has been hitting the ball, I do not want that half run to bite me in the ass. I will play a combination of the moneyline and runline to give myself a price on the Blue Jays of -109 laying only one run.
Boston -110
- If you were told at the beginning of the season that you could play Boston at Fenway against Tampa and only lay ten cents, you would have thought something was wrong with Boston. Well, I am getting Lester, who I think to be underrated, with a healthy Boston team that is playing well, and with a Boston team that has revenge on their minds from getting swept in late April by this same Tampa team. But, this is not the main reason I am picking Boston today; it only complements the main reason, which is Kazmir. As I have said before, humans are creatures of habit. Kazmir is a good pitcher, but he has been on the DL since hurting his elbow early in spring training. It will take Kazmir some time to warm-up and get back into a routine. Not only do I think Vegas is overpricing Kazmir, but I also think Vegas is overpricing Tampa because of the sweep game fallacy. A three game series shows no profitable angle relating to betting a team preventing the sweep, in fact, you are better off betting on the team up 2-0 in the series if you can catch them at plus money (Boston is not at plus money, so this angle does not apply to this bet). A four-game series shows a profitable angle betting on a team to prevent the sweep, but that doesn't apply here either.
Minnseota -101
- Well, this classifies as a home dog since Detroit was -102, so that works to our advantage. But this game also represents a Minnesota team that has won four in a row. So we have three profitable angles working to our advantage here: home dog, a four-win home dog, and betting on a team to sweep a three-game series as an underdog.
Houston +134
- I am not a fan of going against Sheets. One, he is a damn good pitcher. Two, he is a Baton Rouge native. But, this classifies as a play on a home dog, so I will bet small.
Arizona +113
- I knew Haren would look good in his move to the NL. Arizona is a good team. Santana is a great pitcher. But, I consider the starting pitcher to be worth approx 60% of my bet. So, I am getting a good team as a home dog. I'm signing up...
Today's investments:
Boston 332/302
Toronto -1 329/302
Minnesota 203/201
Houston 81/109
Arizona 81/92
opcorn:
