Standalone bowl tonight -- Memphis vs WVU -- Let's Discuss!

Inspekdah said:
If Memphis QB is active I just think he’s hard to stop. Went against him with Tulane and what a massive mistake that was.
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Could be true and you can pass on wvu but I just got done talking bout this in another thread (didn’t realize we had a separate thread for this game, lol). Look at what horvath for navy did to Memphis, I know it a totally different style but I think him and Greene have some the same traits, Greene prob a more consistent thrower while horvath is a tougher inside runner but again that could just be the systems they play in. The only power team Memphis played was arguably the worst power team in football in fsu and they beat them 20-12! I’ll tell ya this much, wvu would have doubled that score easy on Noles. Wvu been inconsistent for sure but they also playEd a tougher schedule and for some reason played better on the road. To me men-6 is silly if all wvu players committed to playing this game. I don’t think Memphis will be able to run on wvu so it will have to be all henigan, I don’t see any reason to lay -6, if you do like Memphis than I’d hit henigan passing number over 264 -125. Personally think I lean more to Greene at 206 passing and I think it 65 rushing, I don’t really see a world Memphis stops this kid. Hell maybe they all hit? It could certainly be a shootout. If you telling me to take a side tho I think the better team is getting +6, no disrespect to Memphis they had a nice year but their sos is way lacking even compared to the big12 wvu schedule so I think their defense stats are a bit inflated as they had to face some real offenses so I think the d is more prepared here than stats might suggest. That said I don’t hate a play on Henigan passing prop over but I think that safer than laying -6 cause I think he will have to throw for 300+ to hang with what Greene can do to this Memphis defense.
 
2daBank said:
Could be true and you can pass on wvu but I just got done talking bout this in another thread (didn’t realize we had a separate thread for this game, lol). Look at what horvath for navy did to Memphis, I know it a totally different style but I think him and Greene have some the same traits, Greene prob a more consistent thrower while horvath is a tougher inside runner but again that could just be the systems they play in. The only power team Memphis played was arguably the worst power team in football in fsu and they beat them 20-12! I’ll tell ya this much, wvu would have doubled that score easy on Noles. Wvu been inconsistent for sure but they also playEd a tougher schedule and for some reason played better on the road. To me men-6 is silly if all wvu players committed to playing this game. I don’t think Memphis will be able to run on wvu so it will have to be all henigan, I don’t see any reason to lay -6, if you do like Memphis than I’d hit henigan passing number over 264 -125. Personally think I lean more to Greene at 206 passing and I think it 65 rushing, I don’t really see a world Memphis stops this kid. Hell maybe they all hit? It could certainly be a shootout. If you telling me to take a side tho I think the better team is getting +6, no disrespect to Memphis they had a nice year but their sos is way lacking even compared to the big12 wvu schedule so I think their defense stats are a bit inflated as they had to face some real offenses so I think the d is more prepared here than stats might suggest. That said I don’t hate a play on Henigan passing prop over but I think that safer than laying -6 cause I think he will have to throw for 300+ to hang with what Greene can do to this Memphis defense.
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I liked Memphis -4 but yea -6 I’m not sure.
I think I’m with you. Maybe play the over props.
If Memphis has everyone go, I’d like to see-4.
If WVU has all players commit to play +6 looks good too.
WVU was good to me this year then would have those headscractchers….Memphis came on late but Tulane was fading too
 
B.A.R. said:
They are, but we just need to stay on top and use the angles we have!
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With both qb’s going kinda assume lot of kids playing this one but I don’t know for sure, honestly I feel like wvu has to be missing kids for them to be +6. Just from a pure power ratings standpoint this number way high as these 2 incredibly close.
 
twinkie13 said:
I liked Memphis -4 but yea -6 I’m not sure.
I think I’m with you. Maybe play the over props.
If Memphis has everyone go, I’d like to see-4.
If WVU has all players commit to play +6 looks good too.
WVU was good to me this year then would have those headscractchers….Memphis came on late but Tulane was fading too
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Wvu was def inconsistent as shit and super odd they were mostly better on road since they have one the bigger travel schedule home fields in big12. But when wvu plays at their best and Greene is healthy they can light it up. I just see how Horvath took Memphis apart and think that a pretty bad sign for them against Greene who can launch deep balls and has crazy good wheels as a runner.
 
I don’t think Greene playing this game not to show out. Memphis 90th in sack rate so Greene ov 65 rush yards I’m kinda leaning to being my favorite. He is without a doubt a more inconsistent passer, when he not hurt he is a beast running with the ball. Memphis hasn’t played many running qbs, n Texas qb ran and threw all over them, the Horvath game the most damning but again it tough to compare, I think they are similar type runners but clearly the systems are so different its impossible to really compare. The low sack rate by Memphis I like, the fact Memphis has been pretty good vs traditional rushing attacks I like cause it prob means Greene not only scrambles but wvu has more designed stuff. He is reslly good finding seems and tough to take down in the open field, I think he prob bust at least 2-3 runs for 15+.
 
I mean the trial itself kinda screaming these qbs are gonna have good games. I’ll tell ya this much, Memphis isn’t covering or winning by running it down wvu throats, it without a doubt will be on the arm of henigan. So if Memphis the play I think you could even play an alt number on him to around 300 passing and 3 tds. I see henigan ov 304 and 3+ tds +252, I don’t hate that at all. Wvu has been pretty awful on 3rd down d and red zone d. Ya just gotta decide if Memphis/henigan offer the same challenges as the big 12 teams? If so this should be a slam dunk. 4 of the last 5 wvu games they allowed 279 or more threw the air, the one team who didn’t pass all over them was ucf who doesn’t really pass all over anyone. Texas tech and Baylor qbs both went way over 300 vs wvu d! Arizona qb went for 294. You can without a doubt throw on wvu. It appears when mem gets a bad pass d henigan has lit them up.
 
Inspekdah said:
Why can’t Memphis run against a bottom half run defense?
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Well there a couple answers here, lol. I watched a lot more wvu early on than I have late and it possible their run d has gotten worse? It could be as I have mentioned pretty much in each post wvu been wildly inconsistent and I happened to see them more often when the run d looked elite and make no mistake there been games where nobody was running in that front 7.

Let’s take a little peak and see :)

So there clearly been some bad performances by the run d, ku, pen st, and Baylor ran for well over 5 a carry and were great On the ground. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say those teams are way better run teams than Memphis. On the flip side they pretty much shut down a very good k-st run game, they also held Pitt, Okie lite, Iowa st, Zona and Cincy to way under 4 yards per carry. I have a very hard time putting Memphis rushing attack in the class if these teams and dimt think Memphis run game comes anywhere close to the run games who did have success on wvu! So I guess it depends if um underrating Memphis or not but they accumulated their 5.2 ypc against a bunch of teams ranked in the 90s and 100’s!! I could be off base here but I think this the best team Memphis will have played this year while wvu went up a lot of rushing attacks I don’t think Memphis can hold a candle to. Maybe I’m crazy but that how I came up with the idea I don’t think Memphis will have success running on wvu. At same time I don’t seem as bothered about the comp level when it comes to Memphis passing because when I’ve watched wvu while I thought their run d/front 7 was incredibly stout I came away from those same games thinking that secondary can be had.

That the best answer I can give you, whether im right bout this or not who fucking knows? 😆 that just how I went about it and came to that conclusion.
 
pressitup said:
we have a front coming thru that will have high winds. it is supposed to be around midnight. itll depend on the meteorologist margin on the forecast
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Interesting. If winds hit early that makes Greene rushing prop the strongest play for me. If winds hold of I think pretty close between Greene rush prop or henigan passing over.
 
Kinda what i love bout bowl season is there so many different ways to interpret numbers accumulated by teams playing drastically different competition.
 
2daBank said:
Interesting. If winds hit early that makes Greene rushing prop the strongest play for me. If winds hold of I think pretty close between Greene rush prop or henigan passing over.
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I like your thinking on the props.

Memphis HC Silverfield obv a solid coach and in particular, appears to be a solid bowl coach. I like +6 as well, but the interim staff for WVU v the Tiger staff could be a slight mismatch?
 
Pretty sure Memphis is a top 20 run offense ypc or at least close to that. They should run wild I believe.
 
horses said:
I like your thinking on the props.

Memphis HC Silverfield obv a solid coach and in particular, appears to be a solid bowl coach. I like +6 as well, but the interim staff for WVU v the Tiger staff could be a slight mismatch?
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Not gonna lie, for all the time I invested in this game I had no idea wvu had fired their coaching staff. Was that done after the last game of season? That def worries me more for wvu than the props. Really Memphis being up in this game plays well into the props, really believe henigan passing will have to be the driving force for Memphis to score, and if wvu down then greene dropping back which will most likely lead to more scrambling.
 
When Memphis went up against the only power conf team they played, the all mighty fsu noles they ran for a whopping 65 yards. 2 of their backs didn’t sniff 3 ypc
 
2daBank said:
Yep they rank high against all those 90 and worse teams they played.
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Naw they're pretty consistently good on the ground every year and very successful at bowl games, especially against the big 12.

I respect your take, I just completely disagree that WVU will randomly shut down a legitimate running attack with a competent QB.
 
2daBank said:
Not gonna lie, for all the time I invested in this game I had no idea wvu had fired their coaching staff. Was that done after the last game of season? That def worries me more for wvu than the props. Really Memphis being up in this game plays well into the props, really believe henigan passing will have to be the driving force for Memphis to score, and if wvu down then greene dropping back which will most likely lead to more scrambling.
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yeah, after the Tech debacle
 
KJ said:
Naw they're pretty consistently good on the ground every year and very successful at bowl games, especially against the big 12.

I respect your take, I just completely disagree that WVU will randomly shut down a legitimate running attack with a competent QB.
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I didn’t know wvu staff been fired, gotta assume at least some kids left not playing? I dunno. I think wvu has stopped better running teams, they also been ran over few times. I think it more likely the run d is good and henigan throws on them (unless that wind forecast hits early), I don’t really get the line either so wtf I know? Just can’t see a front 7 playing w effort get gashed by a team who ran for 60 on fsu. I think Greene runs for a bunch of yards on Memphis but again to me this line should be like a pick so maybe I’m way off or maybe lot of kids did bounce? Or whoever coaching this game isn’t exactly prepared?? No clue who even coaching wvu, lol
 
2daBank said:
I didn’t know wvu staff been fired, gotta assume at least some kids left not playing? I dunno. I think wvu has stopped better running teams, they also been ran over few times. I think it more likely the run d is good and henigan throws on them (unless that wind forecast hits early), I don’t really get the line either so wtf I know? Just can’t see a front 7 playing w effort get gashed by a team who ran for 60 on fsu. I think Greene runs for a bunch of yards on Memphis but again to me this line should be like a pick so maybe I’m way off or maybe lot of kids did bounce? Or whoever coaching this game isn’t exactly prepared?? No clue who even coaching wvu, lol
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Rich Rod is back baby!
 
It sounds to me like injures and possible transfers are mostly in wvu secondary. Henigan last game and wvu been giving up explosives all year. I just really think this far more likely for henigan to light wvu up than run down their throats. I doubt there a prop for it but I’d prob bet Greene and his backs have more rushing yards unless they fall way behind
 
So this thing actually opened wvu-2.5 and has got all way to men-6? That usually a pretty good indicator lot of kids bouncing but doesn’t really sound like that the case. I’m sticking to my story, Greene rushing, henigan passing, and if you made me I’d take the 6 points but not like super thrilled, just seems too high for teams really close in lot of power ratings. Wvu ain’t exactly been great in bowls tho.
 
B.A.R. said:
This has been a wild game.

Points and stats.

I'd think everyone is happy tonight :)
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Shit was lovely. Not so optimistic bout tonight, I didn’t really pay much attention to wku or jmu this year, the csl/unlv game kinda blows with cal not having their qb, they looked fucjing terrible vs smu when he didn’t play. I’d think Rebs players playing but without cal qb -3 kinda feels light, unless cal can ugly it up which I’ve seen them do before then might as well forget bout playing any over props. Not sure I trust that enough to look at unders or not? I might look little deeper but doesn’t feel easy like yesterday kinda did.
 
This was good work in here. Cleaned up, hope all did as well. Never talked myself outta the old -4 to -6 land on 5 shit in a while and sweep totals and props.

Thanks all
 
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