S
SoonerBS
Guest
Last Saturday wasn't nice to me after giving me a 4-9-1 finish as I had to watch 3 of my plays lose in OT losses. I had 3 days to cap and I rushed myself into some plays that I did not cap out good enough. I will not be making that mistake this week as some of my plays on the card will not be finalized until Friday. Here's what I have layed money on so far:
BYU +7.5 - Last year, BYU was in a rebuilding phase while Boston College had one of the best teams they have had in quite some time. BC came to BYU -2 favorites and won the game 20-3. Now, they play at home after a couple of shaky wins and are giving -7 in most books. BYU lost a tough one to Arizona in their opener and then beat last year's CUSA champions, Tulsa. My reasons for playing on BYU here is that I watched BYU play last year and I have watched them play this year and there is not a doubt in my mind that Mendenhall is a coach that is improving this program. Even though they returned only 4 starters on defense, BYU concentrated on their defense in the off season and it has showed in their first two games. This is a solid team that will likely never get "blowed out" this season, but should be in every game they play.
Boston College is 2-0, but it has been a shaky 2-0. They barely got by a MAC team in their opener and they beat a "beat up" Clemson team in OT last week and I believe it was a "lookahead" game for Clemson to Florida State this week. Boston College plays NC State next week and I think they've dodged the bullet too many times so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see BYU win this one SU and that's why I layed my money on them.
Okie St. -27.5 - I'm riding the Oklahoma State ATS wagon here until I get throwed off. I'm close to the program up here in Oklahoma and I can tell you that this team is determined to get better and top their dismal performance of a year ago. Arkansas State is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt conference, if not the best team. Florida Atlantic has proven that they are not. In fact, they are likely the worse team. Okie State was able to beat ASU 35-7 last week in Little Rock, Ark., while FAU was getting pummeled by a sorry K-State team. This week, Okie State gets to play at home against FAU. This one looks easy because it IS easy.
Michigan +7.5 (Big Al and HUNT tail)
Arizona St. -9 - This is simply a "fade Colorado" play. I did this with Okie State last season and won lots of money. I wish I had started this with Colorado whenever the season began, but it's never too late to get on the bandwagon. I can't figure out why my power ratings (Keeper's) has Arizona State only a -5.5 favorite. I think last year's Colorado team is getting factored in here way too much.
Marshall +10.5 - In the same way I am fading Colorado, I also am fading K-State. I think these two teams are the two worse in the entire league. I faded K-State last week against FAU because I thought FAU was getting too many points. I underestimated how truly pitiful FAU actually is -- it will not happen this week. Marshall is not a great team, but they are not the worse either. They had to start their season against a very good West Virginia team and got kicked. But, they came back last week to play their Div. 2 team and win decisively. Power Ratings have K-State a -.5 favorite. K-State is thin on starting personnel and the starters they have are not very good. Take the points!
Texas -29 - I keep up with Texas football, but I have Longhorn friends (that's right, a Sooner fan has Longhorn friends
) that are on the "in" with Texas football. One of them is Ppa316 of SD. Usually whenever he makes a play on Texas, I do too. I haven't got Horn's thoughts on this game, but I believe Texas rolls a half a hundred on Rice this weekend! Texas has always "owned" Rice and their offenseive line and defense will be too much for Rice to handle.
Texas A&M -27.5 - Every freaking game is important to Francione this year -- EVERY game! He has to prove that his coaching is bringing this program around to where it needs to be this season. So far, he's making believers out of some folks, however we realize that they have played two weak opponents so far. That trend continues this week against an Army team that is 1-1, including an OT win last week against Kent St. This will be a road game for both teams, but it will be played in San Antonio, TX where Texas A&M will likely have the majority of fans. Power Rankings have this game right on the number, but not factored in is the road game for Army and "the Francione needs to win BIG" factor. So far, Texas A&M has been very willing to roll the score up on their weaker opponents. I believe it continues here.
Cincinnati +30 - We all know that if tOSU comes to play here, they will annihilate Cincy. However, this is a classic "sandwich game" here. tOSU is coming off their huge win against Texas last week and they play a revenge match against Penn State next week. Couple this with the fact that these two coaching staffs are very good friends and it makes it likely that tOSU will NOT run the score up on Cincy.
Florida -3.5 - I am able to accept that the Tennessee game last week was a "lookahead" spot and that is why we saw the results we did. However, in the process of that game, they lost two of their defensive starters for the season. Last week proved that they can be vulnerable at home and in the last three years they are a dismal 3-12 ATS at home! Florida has played a couple of weak sisters, but has had to show very little of their offense in the process. This game stands in the way of their hopes for a National Championship so they will come to play! This is a power ratings best bet as Florida is rated a -15 favorite!
West Virginia -13.5 (-128) & Maryland +18.5 (-125) - No guts. Too many good cappers on both sides tell me this is not a strong bet, so I'll try to middle and likely juice out. I'll put the money on a better play for Saturday.
Toledo -5 - As you are probably noticing, by week #3 and onward, I start allowing power ratings to become a BIG part of my capping. It certainly is not the only factor I use, but it does weigh heavily. Toledo is considered a -17 favorite in the power rankins this week. That is obviously a huge difference! Is it warranted? Consider the fact that the strongest area of the Jayhawks two out of the last three season's success story has been their defense. They have never had a good offense to speak of and have virtually beat opponents with their defense. This season, they return 3 starters on defense. Kansas has managed to win their last two games against weak sisters even though they have been outgained in total yardage 707 to 677! Meanwhile, Toledo has lost their first two games, but have played two decent teams and nearly beat Iowa State in their opener. They'll be able to step down in competition here and play their home opener against this Kansas team that annihilated them 2 years ago. Can you say -- REVENGE?!
Illinois -3.5 - Check out Horses' thread for reasoning here and then throw in the factor of the power ratings having Illinois an -18.5 point favorite in this game!
UL Monroe +24.5 - I layed this bet based on Fademenow's PM he sent me that basically encouraged me to lay money on a spread that he did not believe his Alabama team could cover with their dismal offense. UL Monroe was in the game the whole time against Kansas and had a chance to win. I'll take my friend's advice.
Missouri -13.5 - This game is flying under Vegas radar, guys. Daniels for Missouri is completing 65% of his passes and Missouri is averaging 530 Total Yards a game and only allowing 156 defensively. This will be their first road game, but they are playing New Mexico -- a team that got beat by Portland St in their opener and has been allowing the same amount of yards to their opponents as they have been producing themselves. Guys, I got a yardage differential (see post #40 in this thread) between these two teams of +374 yards to Missouri's good side!! That's just unreal! What that means is that Mizzou should control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. New Mexico, coming off a win to inner state rival New Mexico St., is not ready for this Missouri team. I'm looking for a score around the mark of 35 - 7 Missouri in this game.
Navy ML +100 -- I really think this game is flying under the radar, guys. I know it's only been two games these two teams have played, but Navy comes into this game with the 4th best rushing team in the nation while Stanford has the 158th (yes, including Div. 2A) ranked rushing defense in the nation!! Navy is actually a +1 dog right now and I think they ought to be favored in this game. They will run all over Stanford and control the tempo of this game. Get them on the ML now for even money because this line could be favoring them by gametime.
Nevada -2.5 -- There are several better write-ups on this forum than what I can give you here. Capping wise, this is a great play, but it worries me that a lot of people are on this and the line has not changed much.
Central Florida +1 -- I promised Mr. Mulligan that if I won the Toledo bet tonight that I would lay money on his play of Central Florida tomorrow. Toledo was a winner, lol!
6 Team Teaser $100 to win $700 -- BYU +12.5; Texas -26.5; Arkansas +.5; Missouri -8; Navy +7; and Hawaii -6.5.
Moneyline Parlay: Nevada, Florida St., Arkansas, Miami, OH., Connecticut, and Dallas. $100 to win $750
I'll be giving a few write-ups on plays as we go along. I'll drop some of these leans and add some as the week goes along. Please feel free to leave whatever comments you might have.
BYU +7.5 - Last year, BYU was in a rebuilding phase while Boston College had one of the best teams they have had in quite some time. BC came to BYU -2 favorites and won the game 20-3. Now, they play at home after a couple of shaky wins and are giving -7 in most books. BYU lost a tough one to Arizona in their opener and then beat last year's CUSA champions, Tulsa. My reasons for playing on BYU here is that I watched BYU play last year and I have watched them play this year and there is not a doubt in my mind that Mendenhall is a coach that is improving this program. Even though they returned only 4 starters on defense, BYU concentrated on their defense in the off season and it has showed in their first two games. This is a solid team that will likely never get "blowed out" this season, but should be in every game they play.
Boston College is 2-0, but it has been a shaky 2-0. They barely got by a MAC team in their opener and they beat a "beat up" Clemson team in OT last week and I believe it was a "lookahead" game for Clemson to Florida State this week. Boston College plays NC State next week and I think they've dodged the bullet too many times so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see BYU win this one SU and that's why I layed my money on them.
Okie St. -27.5 - I'm riding the Oklahoma State ATS wagon here until I get throwed off. I'm close to the program up here in Oklahoma and I can tell you that this team is determined to get better and top their dismal performance of a year ago. Arkansas State is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt conference, if not the best team. Florida Atlantic has proven that they are not. In fact, they are likely the worse team. Okie State was able to beat ASU 35-7 last week in Little Rock, Ark., while FAU was getting pummeled by a sorry K-State team. This week, Okie State gets to play at home against FAU. This one looks easy because it IS easy.
Michigan +7.5 (Big Al and HUNT tail)
Arizona St. -9 - This is simply a "fade Colorado" play. I did this with Okie State last season and won lots of money. I wish I had started this with Colorado whenever the season began, but it's never too late to get on the bandwagon. I can't figure out why my power ratings (Keeper's) has Arizona State only a -5.5 favorite. I think last year's Colorado team is getting factored in here way too much.
Marshall +10.5 - In the same way I am fading Colorado, I also am fading K-State. I think these two teams are the two worse in the entire league. I faded K-State last week against FAU because I thought FAU was getting too many points. I underestimated how truly pitiful FAU actually is -- it will not happen this week. Marshall is not a great team, but they are not the worse either. They had to start their season against a very good West Virginia team and got kicked. But, they came back last week to play their Div. 2 team and win decisively. Power Ratings have K-State a -.5 favorite. K-State is thin on starting personnel and the starters they have are not very good. Take the points!
Texas -29 - I keep up with Texas football, but I have Longhorn friends (that's right, a Sooner fan has Longhorn friends
Texas A&M -27.5 - Every freaking game is important to Francione this year -- EVERY game! He has to prove that his coaching is bringing this program around to where it needs to be this season. So far, he's making believers out of some folks, however we realize that they have played two weak opponents so far. That trend continues this week against an Army team that is 1-1, including an OT win last week against Kent St. This will be a road game for both teams, but it will be played in San Antonio, TX where Texas A&M will likely have the majority of fans. Power Rankings have this game right on the number, but not factored in is the road game for Army and "the Francione needs to win BIG" factor. So far, Texas A&M has been very willing to roll the score up on their weaker opponents. I believe it continues here.
Cincinnati +30 - We all know that if tOSU comes to play here, they will annihilate Cincy. However, this is a classic "sandwich game" here. tOSU is coming off their huge win against Texas last week and they play a revenge match against Penn State next week. Couple this with the fact that these two coaching staffs are very good friends and it makes it likely that tOSU will NOT run the score up on Cincy.
Florida -3.5 - I am able to accept that the Tennessee game last week was a "lookahead" spot and that is why we saw the results we did. However, in the process of that game, they lost two of their defensive starters for the season. Last week proved that they can be vulnerable at home and in the last three years they are a dismal 3-12 ATS at home! Florida has played a couple of weak sisters, but has had to show very little of their offense in the process. This game stands in the way of their hopes for a National Championship so they will come to play! This is a power ratings best bet as Florida is rated a -15 favorite!
West Virginia -13.5 (-128) & Maryland +18.5 (-125) - No guts. Too many good cappers on both sides tell me this is not a strong bet, so I'll try to middle and likely juice out. I'll put the money on a better play for Saturday.
Toledo -5 - As you are probably noticing, by week #3 and onward, I start allowing power ratings to become a BIG part of my capping. It certainly is not the only factor I use, but it does weigh heavily. Toledo is considered a -17 favorite in the power rankins this week. That is obviously a huge difference! Is it warranted? Consider the fact that the strongest area of the Jayhawks two out of the last three season's success story has been their defense. They have never had a good offense to speak of and have virtually beat opponents with their defense. This season, they return 3 starters on defense. Kansas has managed to win their last two games against weak sisters even though they have been outgained in total yardage 707 to 677! Meanwhile, Toledo has lost their first two games, but have played two decent teams and nearly beat Iowa State in their opener. They'll be able to step down in competition here and play their home opener against this Kansas team that annihilated them 2 years ago. Can you say -- REVENGE?!
Illinois -3.5 - Check out Horses' thread for reasoning here and then throw in the factor of the power ratings having Illinois an -18.5 point favorite in this game!
UL Monroe +24.5 - I layed this bet based on Fademenow's PM he sent me that basically encouraged me to lay money on a spread that he did not believe his Alabama team could cover with their dismal offense. UL Monroe was in the game the whole time against Kansas and had a chance to win. I'll take my friend's advice.
Missouri -13.5 - This game is flying under Vegas radar, guys. Daniels for Missouri is completing 65% of his passes and Missouri is averaging 530 Total Yards a game and only allowing 156 defensively. This will be their first road game, but they are playing New Mexico -- a team that got beat by Portland St in their opener and has been allowing the same amount of yards to their opponents as they have been producing themselves. Guys, I got a yardage differential (see post #40 in this thread) between these two teams of +374 yards to Missouri's good side!! That's just unreal! What that means is that Mizzou should control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. New Mexico, coming off a win to inner state rival New Mexico St., is not ready for this Missouri team. I'm looking for a score around the mark of 35 - 7 Missouri in this game.
Navy ML +100 -- I really think this game is flying under the radar, guys. I know it's only been two games these two teams have played, but Navy comes into this game with the 4th best rushing team in the nation while Stanford has the 158th (yes, including Div. 2A) ranked rushing defense in the nation!! Navy is actually a +1 dog right now and I think they ought to be favored in this game. They will run all over Stanford and control the tempo of this game. Get them on the ML now for even money because this line could be favoring them by gametime.
Nevada -2.5 -- There are several better write-ups on this forum than what I can give you here. Capping wise, this is a great play, but it worries me that a lot of people are on this and the line has not changed much.
Central Florida +1 -- I promised Mr. Mulligan that if I won the Toledo bet tonight that I would lay money on his play of Central Florida tomorrow. Toledo was a winner, lol!
6 Team Teaser $100 to win $700 -- BYU +12.5; Texas -26.5; Arkansas +.5; Missouri -8; Navy +7; and Hawaii -6.5.
Moneyline Parlay: Nevada, Florida St., Arkansas, Miami, OH., Connecticut, and Dallas. $100 to win $750
I'll be giving a few write-ups on plays as we go along. I'll drop some of these leans and add some as the week goes along. Please feel free to leave whatever comments you might have.
Last edited by a moderator:
