SoonerBS Week #3 Plays and Leans

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SoonerBS

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Last Saturday wasn't nice to me after giving me a 4-9-1 finish as I had to watch 3 of my plays lose in OT losses. I had 3 days to cap and I rushed myself into some plays that I did not cap out good enough. I will not be making that mistake this week as some of my plays on the card will not be finalized until Friday. Here's what I have layed money on so far:

BYU +7.5 - Last year, BYU was in a rebuilding phase while Boston College had one of the best teams they have had in quite some time. BC came to BYU -2 favorites and won the game 20-3. Now, they play at home after a couple of shaky wins and are giving -7 in most books. BYU lost a tough one to Arizona in their opener and then beat last year's CUSA champions, Tulsa. My reasons for playing on BYU here is that I watched BYU play last year and I have watched them play this year and there is not a doubt in my mind that Mendenhall is a coach that is improving this program. Even though they returned only 4 starters on defense, BYU concentrated on their defense in the off season and it has showed in their first two games. This is a solid team that will likely never get "blowed out" this season, but should be in every game they play.

Boston College is 2-0, but it has been a shaky 2-0. They barely got by a MAC team in their opener and they beat a "beat up" Clemson team in OT last week and I believe it was a "lookahead" game for Clemson to Florida State this week. Boston College plays NC State next week and I think they've dodged the bullet too many times so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see BYU win this one SU and that's why I layed my money on them.

Okie St. -27.5 - I'm riding the Oklahoma State ATS wagon here until I get throwed off. I'm close to the program up here in Oklahoma and I can tell you that this team is determined to get better and top their dismal performance of a year ago. Arkansas State is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt conference, if not the best team. Florida Atlantic has proven that they are not. In fact, they are likely the worse team. Okie State was able to beat ASU 35-7 last week in Little Rock, Ark., while FAU was getting pummeled by a sorry K-State team. This week, Okie State gets to play at home against FAU. This one looks easy because it IS easy.

Michigan +7.5 (Big Al and HUNT tail)

Arizona St. -9 - This is simply a "fade Colorado" play. I did this with Okie State last season and won lots of money. I wish I had started this with Colorado whenever the season began, but it's never too late to get on the bandwagon. I can't figure out why my power ratings (Keeper's) has Arizona State only a -5.5 favorite. I think last year's Colorado team is getting factored in here way too much.

Marshall +10.5 - In the same way I am fading Colorado, I also am fading K-State. I think these two teams are the two worse in the entire league. I faded K-State last week against FAU because I thought FAU was getting too many points. I underestimated how truly pitiful FAU actually is -- it will not happen this week. Marshall is not a great team, but they are not the worse either. They had to start their season against a very good West Virginia team and got kicked. But, they came back last week to play their Div. 2 team and win decisively. Power Ratings have K-State a -.5 favorite. K-State is thin on starting personnel and the starters they have are not very good. Take the points!

Texas -29 - I keep up with Texas football, but I have Longhorn friends (that's right, a Sooner fan has Longhorn friends
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) that are on the "in" with Texas football. One of them is Ppa316 of SD. Usually whenever he makes a play on Texas, I do too. I haven't got Horn's thoughts on this game, but I believe Texas rolls a half a hundred on Rice this weekend! Texas has always "owned" Rice and their offenseive line and defense will be too much for Rice to handle.

Texas A&M -27.5 - Every freaking game is important to Francione this year -- EVERY game! He has to prove that his coaching is bringing this program around to where it needs to be this season. So far, he's making believers out of some folks, however we realize that they have played two weak opponents so far. That trend continues this week against an Army team that is 1-1, including an OT win last week against Kent St. This will be a road game for both teams, but it will be played in San Antonio, TX where Texas A&M will likely have the majority of fans. Power Rankings have this game right on the number, but not factored in is the road game for Army and "the Francione needs to win BIG" factor. So far, Texas A&M has been very willing to roll the score up on their weaker opponents. I believe it continues here.

Cincinnati +30 - We all know that if tOSU comes to play here, they will annihilate Cincy. However, this is a classic "sandwich game" here. tOSU is coming off their huge win against Texas last week and they play a revenge match against Penn State next week. Couple this with the fact that these two coaching staffs are very good friends and it makes it likely that tOSU will NOT run the score up on Cincy.

Florida -3.5 - I am able to accept that the Tennessee game last week was a "lookahead" spot and that is why we saw the results we did. However, in the process of that game, they lost two of their defensive starters for the season. Last week proved that they can be vulnerable at home and in the last three years they are a dismal 3-12 ATS at home! Florida has played a couple of weak sisters, but has had to show very little of their offense in the process. This game stands in the way of their hopes for a National Championship so they will come to play! This is a power ratings best bet as Florida is rated a -15 favorite!

West Virginia -13.5 (-128) & Maryland +18.5 (-125) - No guts. Too many good cappers on both sides tell me this is not a strong bet, so I'll try to middle and likely juice out. I'll put the money on a better play for Saturday.

Toledo -5 - As you are probably noticing, by week #3 and onward, I start allowing power ratings to become a BIG part of my capping. It certainly is not the only factor I use, but it does weigh heavily. Toledo is considered a -17 favorite in the power rankins this week. That is obviously a huge difference! Is it warranted? Consider the fact that the strongest area of the Jayhawks two out of the last three season's success story has been their defense. They have never had a good offense to speak of and have virtually beat opponents with their defense. This season, they return 3 starters on defense. Kansas has managed to win their last two games against weak sisters even though they have been outgained in total yardage 707 to 677! Meanwhile, Toledo has lost their first two games, but have played two decent teams and nearly beat Iowa State in their opener. They'll be able to step down in competition here and play their home opener against this Kansas team that annihilated them 2 years ago. Can you say -- REVENGE?!

Illinois -3.5 - Check out Horses' thread for reasoning here and then throw in the factor of the power ratings having Illinois an -18.5 point favorite in this game!

UL Monroe +24.5 - I layed this bet based on Fademenow's PM he sent me that basically encouraged me to lay money on a spread that he did not believe his Alabama team could cover with their dismal offense. UL Monroe was in the game the whole time against Kansas and had a chance to win. I'll take my friend's advice.

Missouri -13.5 - This game is flying under Vegas radar, guys. Daniels for Missouri is completing 65% of his passes and Missouri is averaging 530 Total Yards a game and only allowing 156 defensively. This will be their first road game, but they are playing New Mexico -- a team that got beat by Portland St in their opener and has been allowing the same amount of yards to their opponents as they have been producing themselves. Guys, I got a yardage differential (see post #40 in this thread) between these two teams of +374 yards to Missouri's good side!! That's just unreal! What that means is that Mizzou should control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. New Mexico, coming off a win to inner state rival New Mexico St., is not ready for this Missouri team. I'm looking for a score around the mark of 35 - 7 Missouri in this game.

Navy ML +100 -- I really think this game is flying under the radar, guys. I know it's only been two games these two teams have played, but Navy comes into this game with the 4th best rushing team in the nation while Stanford has the 158th (yes, including Div. 2A) ranked rushing defense in the nation!! Navy is actually a +1 dog right now and I think they ought to be favored in this game. They will run all over Stanford and control the tempo of this game. Get them on the ML now for even money because this line could be favoring them by gametime.

Nevada -2.5 -- There are several better write-ups on this forum than what I can give you here. Capping wise, this is a great play, but it worries me that a lot of people are on this and the line has not changed much.

Central Florida +1 -- I promised Mr. Mulligan that if I won the Toledo bet tonight that I would lay money on his play of Central Florida tomorrow. Toledo was a winner, lol!

6 Team Teaser $100 to win $700 -- BYU +12.5; Texas -26.5; Arkansas +.5; Missouri -8; Navy +7; and Hawaii -6.5.


Moneyline Parlay: Nevada, Florida St., Arkansas, Miami, OH., Connecticut, and Dallas. $100 to win $750

I'll be giving a few write-ups on plays as we go along. I'll drop some of these leans and add some as the week goes along. Please feel free to leave whatever comments you might have.
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it's funny you write that soonerbs...I feel like I rushed my plays last week as well...had a bad week 2 last year too...oh well...

strong leans to Michigan and Texas Tech...
 
Sooner..gl to us bro....

I am looking forward to your sooner analysis!
 
HUNTDOG said:
Sooner..gl to us bro....

I am looking forward to your sooner analysis!

At this point, Oklahoma and Oregon is a "no play." I can see good reasons for taking both. I'm thinking I may just kick back Saturday and watch this one.

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Probably the best thing to do bro..gl on the rest of your picks, I look forward to your insight.
 
I'd lean Oregon... I mean they can just stack the box... and make life hell against Oklahoma... Oregon's offense seems to be way ahead of Oklahoma's defense in terms of progression. Fresno's D at home is usually on the best... and Ore moved the ball somewhat well there...

Fresno at Washington -3? Is this a joke? Washington is horrible and Fresno cannot be happy with that loss. I know it's a tough road game... but they should win this by 7.
 
If you want the UC play I think I would grab it now before it falls anymore...it looks like an easy play...you would expect tOSU to come out flat as a pancake here...

Also, UC head coach M Dantonio was our D Coordinator that came in w/ Tress and was here until after the NC year...they are very good friends and no way do we run it up on him ....NO WAY...
 
JumpOnBoard said:
If you want the UC play I think I would grab it now before it falls anymore...it looks like an easy play...you would expect tOSU to come out flat as a pancake here...

Also, UC head coach M Dantonio was our D Coordinator that came in w/ Tress and was here until after the NC year...they are very good friends and no way do we run it up on him ....NO WAY...

Thanks, Jump, I'll go grab it. This line is right on the numbers, but it does not throw in the letdown element and the friendship element between coaches. :shake:
 
If anyone hears any press about Nebraska coaches saying they want to establish the "running game" against USC, please let me know so I can lay a bet on USC.

I'm serious.
 
SoonerBS said:
If anyone hears any press about Nebraska coaches saying they want to establish the "running game" against USC, please let me know so I can lay a bet on USC.

I'm serious.


Hate to say it Sooner but this thing could get ugly.... NU has absolutely no one in the defensive backfield that will be able to stay with Jarret, Smith, or Fred Smith for that matter... everyone is hurt and/or just not talented enough to stay with those guys.

This is a really important game for Callahan and co. Anyone that says otherwise isnt being honest. Fans want to see if they can truly compete and if they are at least moving up the ladder to elite status again. I kind of liken it to the '94 Orange Bowl where NU should have beaten Florida St. when no one gave them a shot at staying within 3 TDs. If one believes in moral victories, that was certainly one. It put into motion what were to become golden years for us Husker fans.

Sadly, I dont see what's described above happening here. I can see this game playing out similar to that of the SC -Arkansas game. NU keeping it semi-close for 2 qtrs. then SC running away from NU. I just hope NU doesnt get run out of LA by 40.

I wont be playing the game but if I were, I'd be squarely on the side of SC.

BOL to you my friend. :shake:
 
SC BIG and I mean big. Giving Caroll a whole extra week to gameplan, and this is their home opener where they average 30+ a win. See ya Huskers beat a real team!
 
Magic, I was hoping you would stop in and give me your thoughts on the Huskers!
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I think that you are absolutely right in your assessment. It's hard to lay money on Callahan. I obviously won money on them against La Tech in their opener, but I had my doubts at the end of the first half. Callahan came out wanting to establish the run game whenever it was obvious to everyone that La Tech couldn't stop their passing game. It was just idiotic! Luckily, the second half consisted of running the passing game and they scored and covered. I think you're right here -- this is either a "no play" or a play on USC.

abcs, pags and Farm, thanks for your comments!
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Rexy, thanks for the kind words, dude. I'm not too disappointed. After all, three of those bets were lost in OT. I'll have more time to evaluate these plays this week and I really like the card.
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GL Den, I'm just browsing for a minute as soon as I came in but I'll definitely check your thread later tonight more indepth.

Sorry about the Hogs underachieving Saturday. They should have put up 40+ on those guys. Okie State played out about right after ASU took that pick six for the opening score. ASU's defense will be a strength this year but that offense is just pathetic right now. They have two QBs and you know what they say, when that happens you don't have one.....well they really DON'T have one.
 
Razor, I know about week #5 you'll have more time to post your thoughts on all this shit. That's when the "honeymoon" screwing will be done, and you'll decide 4 times a month is good enough like the rest of us "old timers."
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Guys, I'll start doing write-ups to list reasons for a lot of these plays tomorrow.
 
no way

the trojans win by more than 30 pts. on Nebraska!!
Believe me. the blackshirts have a great defense.
usc 27- neb 17
mark my words.
 
Been meaning to ask you Sooner as to what you feel are the reasons behind OU defensive issues are. All summer I was reading on how they would have one of the best defenses in the Stoops era, which when you consider it, is high praise. After two games it doesnt seem to be playing out that way. I had them last weekend -16 so I eeked out a win but Washington was certainly having no problem moving the football - and, at times, neither was UAB.

I think this is a somewhat disturbing trend if you're an OU fan. It seems to me that for the last couple of years they are so vulnerable to big plays - especially in the defensive backfield. When one looks at the athletic players you have on the defensive side of the ball, one would be led to believe its more scheme than player. Could it be that Venables isnt getting the job done?

I'd be interested in your thoughts.
 
Magic32 said:
Been meaning to ask you Sooner as to what you feel are the reasons behind OU defensive issues are. All summer I was reading on how they would have one of the best defenses in the Stoops era, which when you consider it, is high praise. After two games it doesnt seem to be playing out that way. I had them last weekend -16 so I eeked out a win but Washington was certainly having no problem moving the football - and, at times, neither was UAB.

I think this is a somewhat disturbing trend if you're an OU fan. It seems to me that for the last couple of years they are so vulnerable to big plays - especially in the defensive backfield. When one looks at the athletic players you have on the defensive side of the ball, one would be led to believe its more scheme than player. Could it be that Venables isnt getting the job done?

I'd be interested in your thoughts.

There's no doubt in my mind that Mike Stoops was the driving force and brain behind those early, great defenses. No, I don't think Venerables is as good. BUT, that being said, these guys are all pure athletes for at least 2 deep if not three. Whenever it really comes down to it, you have to have some "want to" and so far they have been uninspired. They're techniques are still pitiful as they have not been getting themselves in the right positions to make plays and their tackling has been horrendous! It pisses me off to watch them, Magic.

They benched J. D. Wolfe this week against Oregon and will start Lendy Holmes in his place. This should be a good adjustment as Wolfe has got burned the last two games.

I'm also concerned about the defensive line's size. Pendleton comes in at 266 lbs of solid muscle, but he's going against linemen that outweigh him by 50 pounds! It's been obvious that the defensive line is getting pushed around. They were designed not to take on linemen straight up, but to outquick them to the gaps. That's why I said, they haven't been getting themselves in position. We were suppose to have some of the best defensive ends in the nation, but they haven't really showed up.

That probably describes the OU defense so far this season -- they haven't showed up. Magic, they may never show up, but if they are going to show up, I have to believe that they will do it against Oregon.

Guys, I have added thoughts to my plays in the initial post.
 
den- I really like your BYU pick.:shake:
I will probably split my play 50-50 ATS and ML.
I join you on Okie State. My Coattail rule # 1 is to totally ignore the Big Xii in handicapping and concentrate my time elsewhere. I just follow you in the Big XII.
Having said that, there are a few you mention that trouble me because of the Canuck fade system. You remember him from BTB ? Claims to know zero about CFB, just fades the public when it's over 60% and seems to win more than all of us. I think Texas, A & M, ASU and West Virginia might fall into that category. ???
With you on Michigan. I like your logic on Cincy, and it may well be a qualified fade tOSU play.
I decided to take Toledo a long time ago. Glad to see you're not the other way. I have trouble with Illinois. They were really bad last week. I'll,probably pass.
Re Marshall , I gotta trust you.
One of these days bama is going to break out and ULM could be the game. They are picked last in the powerful Sunbelt.
That leaves Florida, and I'll wait to see if abcs has a call in that one.
Hope you turn it around this week.:cheers:

I was fortunate to have had a very good week # 2.:wacka wacka:
bull
 
I fail to see everyone's infatuation with ASU laying that kind of road chalk. This team isn't that well coached and I don't remember than ever covering this kind of chalk on the road against the Pac10's worst (going from memory here). I realize it's a CU fade, but this team will get better. I guarantee you they won't go 0-12.

Uour Toledo and BYU writeups are very convincing; I was going back and forth on the Friday Nite game and I think you clinched it for me.

I will not bet against WVA; they have covered EVERY game since White took the helm at quarterback.
 
That's a fair analysis of the OU situation Sooner and I thank you for it... I completely agree that technique has absolutely been an issue. Over running plays and bad tackling has plauged these guys.

Also, here's another tidbit on the NU/SC game.... To your comment about the NU running game: NU's best offensive lineman, C Kurt Mann is questionable this week. He didnt play last week and is returning from a "virus." Even if he does play, apparently he wont be 100%. From what I saw in the SC-Ark game, SC's d-line looks to be improved from last year so this could be a factor.
 
bull, Canuck's system is good, but I like to think I'll hit the ones his system misses.
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Congratulations on a good week last week. I'm 1 UNIT behind and look to add several UNITS this week.
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horses, I hear what you're saying and I CAN be convinced to buy back a bet. Ppa over at SD told me the same thing about ASU, too. That may be one I buy back.

Magic, Nebraska does better whenever they pass the ball. Callahan came out in their opener and decided to try and prove they could run it. I'm one that believes you can pass to open your running game as well as running to open your passing game. NU's running game is not that great and now it looks as if it will not be getting better.

Also, it may seem like I am liking Oklahoma in the Oregon game and I most certainly am not. Oklahoma is not a great team and they are going on the road to play a good team. Chances are they will get beat. I'm not making a play on them so I can sit here and cheer for them to win.
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GL this week Den, I chimed in on MD/WVU in Big Daddy thread. You have a great number there that you may want to keep but at the very least you'll have some great opps at both sides.
 
Gl Sooner with you on Toledo the # is down to 4. I would love to get this at 3 so I am gonna hold out a little bit.:cheers:
 
Don't know how to tell a Sooner thanks but your writeup is allsome.

If you had to pick a 5 team +6 teaser out of your picks what would it be?

I also agree on all of you big 12 picks this week. I am looking forward to this weekend.
 
Ichabod said:
Don't know how to tell a Sooner thanks but your writeup is allsome.

If you had to pick a 5 team +6 teaser out of your picks what would it be?

I also agree on all of you big 12 picks this week. I am looking forward to this weekend.

"Allsome."

Can't tell Ichabod is a HornFans reg (coming from another reg).
 
Timh, thanks, dude, I always enjoy your input!
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Skinnysmalzz, thanks! I don't know why Toledo is going down unless the public happens to be betting according to records which is possible. That's OK, just makes a better line for you!
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Ichabod, I really don't know which ones I would use at the moment. I take a closer look at them and give you my thoughts later. Thanks for your kind words.
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renew orleans said:
i agree with a lot of your plays. Michigan scares me though, just not that confident in them. GL

If Michigan doesn't hit for us, it's all HUNTDOG and B.A.R.'s fault!
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NU opening up the run with the pass is really the only way this thing stays close, in my opinion.

Also, just heard on the radio up here that there are rumours flying around Manhattan, KS that frosh Josh Freeman will start at QB this weekend v. Marshall. Apparently Dylan Meier is banged up. Like I said, its just a rumour at this point. But then again, I like Marshall with Meier on the field!
 
Magic32 said:
NU opening up the run with the pass is really the only way this thing stays close, in my opinion.

Also, just heard on the radio up here that there are rumours flying around Manhattan, KS that frosh Josh Freeman will start at QB this weekend v. Marshall. Apparently Dylan Meier is banged up. Like I said, its just a rumour at this point. But then again, I like Marshall with Meier on the field!

K-State is thin at every position, but especially QB! That would be great for the Marshall play if it holds true. :cheers:
 
sooners,

I wouldn't sell that ASU bet just yet there bud...spent the last couple of hours researching this game...and I'm gonna play ASU...I can't believe I'm laying 10 on the road, but there is a huge mismatch in this one...huge...
 
What's up Den? Your plays look good this week as I am on many of 'em! Are you laying off total plays? What are your thoughts on Conn Over, N.D. under, and BYU under? These three stand out to me this week. GL!!!
 
pags, I'm hanging on!
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Moot, some of these TOTALS are moving back and forth, so I'll lock them in probably by Friday. I don't have much knowledge on Connecticut and Wake Forest, but I agree with UNDERS on those last two. I'm liking the UNDERS on those two and the UNDER in the Miami/Louisville game.
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From Tressel's Tuesday luncheon:

Tressel will be coaching against his good friend and former assistant Mark Dantonio when the Bearcats come to Columbus on Saturday. Of course Tressel wants to win, but he admits that it’s hard going up against a friend in the heat of battle.

“Oh, absolutely,” Tressel said. “I remember his first game at Cincinnati and you looked across the side line and there was Jeff Uhlenhake who had just been on our staff and Mark Staten and Mike Tressel, and who I’d coached at Ohio and who had coached with me at Youngstown, and Pat Narduzzi who had played for us at Youngstown. And of course Dino, you felt like you grew up with him, so no question. Those are the kind of games you just like to get over with. You like to get focused on the task at hand. Where does Ohio State need to get better ."
 
JumpOnBoard said:
From Tressel's Tuesday luncheon:

Tressel will be coaching against his good friend and former assistant Mark Dantonio when the Bearcats come to Columbus on Saturday. Of course Tressel wants to win, but he admits that it’s hard going up against a friend in the heat of battle.

“Oh, absolutely,” Tressel said. “I remember his first game at Cincinnati and you looked across the side line and there was Jeff Uhlenhake who had just been on our staff and Mark Staten and Mike Tressel, and who I’d coached at Ohio and who had coached with me at Youngstown, and Pat Narduzzi who had played for us at Youngstown. And of course Dino, you felt like you grew up with him, so no question. Those are the kind of games you just like to get over with. You like to get focused on the task at hand. Where does Ohio State need to get better ."

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I was just rechecking my wagers layed so far and I am feeling more confident about them.

I run a little formula on games that I'm playing or interested in playing to judge who should control the line of scrimmage. It's called a yardage differential. You take the "Defensive Total Yards Allowed Average" of one team and subtract that number from their "Offensive Total Yards." You should get a "+" number or a "-" number ("+" number signifies a good team "-" number signifies they need help, lol) Now, you do that for both teams playing a game against each other. Compare the numbers and notice the difference in yardage (I usually subtract the lesser number from the greater to get a "yardage differential" number to go by). If you are playing a favorite, you'd better be on a team with the higher number or you're probably screwed. If you are playing a team who is a dog and their difference is greater than the other team, you have a damn good bet. These differences you come up with should give you some kind of indication as to who will control the line of scrimmage for the game. It's not 100% accurate of course, but it is a good indicator.

Example:

BYU offensive yard average is 390. Their defensive yards allowed average is 278. This gives them a +112 difference.

Boston College is averaging 365 yards total per game. Their defenseive yards allowed is 428. This gives them a -63 difference.

Now, take BYU's +112 and compare Boston College's -63 and it gives BYU a +175 differential edge. That's great to know whenever I have a play on them at +7.5 and it looks like they will control the line of scrimmage for the game!
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Every one of the plays I have submitted fall in favor of the yardage differential, but Cincinnati. However, with Cincinnati I am making the play based on coaching staff relations and "sandwich spot" for Ohio State.

I do not use this "exclusively" in my capping, AND this works a lot better after game 5 and beyond. BUT, I would not make a play against it unless I had very strong reasons.

Just thought ya'll might be interested in this.
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30 plays and counting

den- I just checked wagerline and there are 30 potential plays using the Canuck system. That's before I even get to my own :hairout: stuff.

Funny, but a lot of my picks qualify in his system, and only one ( Fla State) would be a throwout. So I'm left with a dilemna and still have a few days to make up my mind. :4_12_13:

Should I play his system? Should I play my picks / coattail games?
He has been emphatic in saying you can't pick and choose.

If I go with him, I would be fading you on OSU, Texas, and A&M.
Also ASU and Fla, which I will drop because tho I pay close attention to all your plays, I blindly :bow: follow you in Big XII.

My lean is to keep OSU. Pass on the two Texases. Fade ASU (leaning that way anyway, with all due respect to pags, )and wait and see on Fla-Tenn. Great stuff in SEC this week.

Main thing is to win, but it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

I've only made two plays so far ( Iona +30 and Duquesne -16 )
but will be putting up a thread later today or early tomorrow.
Best of Luck.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
Also...have u heard any updates on the shoulder injury for Brian Toal? He's the best player on that D by far....

This is all I got, Jump: BOSTON COLLEGE - Defensive tackle Ron Brace (9/11, head) is questionable for Saturday's game against BYU. Linebacker Brian Toal (9/11, shoulder) is questionable for Saturday's game against BYU. *Quarterback Matt Ryan (9/11, ankle) is probable for Saturday's game against BYU. Free safety Ryan Glasper (9/1, hip) is sidelined indefinitely. Defensive end Jim Ramella (8/30, right shoulder surgery) is expected to miss the entire season.

bull, my thoughts on systems are that you have to follow them exclusively to benefit from them. Whenever NBA and CBB start, I have about 3 formulas I strictly follow -- no coattails or personal leans. I know that these formulas are successful as long as I strictly follow them. So, if you're going to follow Canuck's system, you should do so all the way IMO.

Personally, I like capping football games, so I'm not interested in systems. By the time football is over, my mind is ready to rest, and so systems fit well with me through NBA and CBB. :cheers:
 
good stuff soonerbs...I'm eyeing BYU very closely, especially since the line's gone up to 7...
 
den- thanks for the advice. Of course, if a game doesn't fit either way in the Canuck system- plus my Division2 selections - I assume i'm OK to play it. I just gotta go all the way with his stuff.

pags- You beat The Prick !!:bow:
 
bull,

yeah, didn't have a great week of picks and still managed to beat him...I'll take it...thank you...
 
sooner, very curious about your thoughts on Texas Tech. I think the Red Raiders will simply be able to outgun TCU here, and I really don't think the Horned Frog secondary is nearly good enough to stay with them the entire game.
 
CharlieBX said:
sooner, very curious about your thoughts on Texas Tech. I think the Red Raiders will simply be able to outgun TCU here, and I really don't think the Horned Frog secondary is nearly good enough to stay with them the entire game.

Charlie, I don't know if you have ever came across the capper Ppa316 at Sports Degenerates or not, but he is a damn good capper. This guy comes on strong but he analyzes these games thouroughly. We do a lot of corresponding over the IM about games and he told me last week I was laying a bad bet on Tech at UTEP. He reminded me that Tech does not do well on the road, but I went ahead with my bet anyway. Of course, it was one of three that I lost in OT last week.
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Charlie, Tech may win and cover this week, but I will not be on them. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Tech is 1-6 ATS as a road favorite and 3-8 ATS on the road the last 3 years. I'm going to wisely lay off them this week.

I really like a lot of plays this week so I don't have to play Tech as a possibility. Good luck with whatever you decide to do. :cheers:
 
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